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2017 Trade Deadline Thread (Red Sox discussion)
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Post by coachmac on Jul 21, 2017 9:30:40 GMT -5
Totally right. As things are looking right now, a platoon of Nunez and Holt would be OK. Not great...just OK, but the "black hole" would be sealed for awhile until Devers pulls into town. What black f-ing hole? The Lin / Marrero platoon have been a 2.1 WAR /150 G player. Along with Holt, you have your beautiful stopgap on hand already. The only reason Lin was sent down was the need to restock the bullpen while playing 58 innings in four days. BTW, Nunez has a career reverse platoon split, 96 wRC+ vs. RHP and 88 vs. LHP. Meanwhile, Marrero has been a +16 defender at 3B and has a 152 wRC+ vs. LHP in 42 PA. You can regress those numbers ridiculously and he's still a better option than Nunez for the RH platoon side. The defensive difference, regressed, is about 18 runs. A run of defense is 1.36 points of wRC+, so as long as Marrero's 152 doesn't regress below 64, he's the better option. ErIc I agree that Lin/Marrero is not black hole, we need the above average D. If the Sawx added Alonso as a middle order power bat, I believe the 3rd base hole becomes less troublesome. What is Beane asking?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2017 9:31:22 GMT -5
I see Rutledge just started his rehab in AAA. They cannot possibly put him back on the roster.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 21, 2017 9:37:29 GMT -5
What black f-ing hole? The Lin / Marrero platoon have been a 2.1 WAR /150 G player. Along with Holt, you have your beautiful stopgap on hand already. The only reason Lin was sent down was the need to restock the bullpen while playing 58 innings in four days. BTW, Nunez has a career reverse platoon split, 96 wRC+ vs. RHP and 88 vs. LHP. Meanwhile, Marrero has been a +16 defender at 3B and has a 152 wRC+ vs. LHP in 42 PA. You can regress those numbers ridiculously and he's still a better option than Nunez for the RH platoon side. The defensive difference, regressed, is about 18 runs. A run of defense is 1.36 points of wRC+, so as long as Marrero's 152 doesn't regress below 64, he's the better option. ErIc I agree that Lin/Marrero is not black hole, we need the above average D. If the Sawx added Alonso as a middle order power bat, I believe the 3rd base hole becomes less troublesome. What is Beane asking? I don't think 3b can be just a place to get decent defense. They have mediocre offense, to put it kindly, from the catching tandem, a 1b who has stopped hitting, or is hitting like he normally does or is feeling the effects of his toe issue, whichever it is, a SS who isn't hitting well since he's been hit and has endured a power outage. Our DH isn't having a stellar year. They can't afford an offense drain at 3b and have too many automatic outs in the lineup which is what they seem to have right now. They need Devers up sooner than later, but I will say I agree that the Sox shouldn't spend too many resources getting Nunez from SF as he's not worth it. I have a feeling that if they do get Nunez, they might deal Lin for him with Dave figuring that Marco Hernandez is back next year and they won't need Lin.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jul 21, 2017 9:43:30 GMT -5
What black f-ing hole? The Lin / Marrero platoon have been a 2.1 WAR /150 G player. Along with Holt, you have your beautiful stopgap on hand already. The only reason Lin was sent down was the need to restock the bullpen while playing 58 innings in four days. BTW, Nunez has a career reverse platoon split, 96 wRC+ vs. RHP and 88 vs. LHP. Meanwhile, Marrero has been a +16 defender at 3B and has a 152 wRC+ vs. LHP in 42 PA. You can regress those numbers ridiculously and he's still a better option than Nunez for the RH platoon side. The defensive difference, regressed, is about 18 runs. A run of defense is 1.36 points of wRC+, so as long as Marrero's 152 doesn't regress below 64, he's the better option. If it were not a "black f---ing hole", the Sox would not be dominating the sports cycle trying to close it. We are making do. This site is not just for pompous ultra stat geeks with highly corrective lenses. Perhaps I mistook your tone. No I think you assessment of dear old ericvan is right on. He just likes to say the "F" word I guess. Ericvan....third base is a "f....ing black hole", even in your alternative reality...so get over it!!!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 21, 2017 9:47:56 GMT -5
I'd really hope they would trade Holt over Lin at this point but who knows how teams across the league view Holt's value with his concussions and vertigo issues.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2017 9:49:42 GMT -5
I'd really hope they would trade Holt over Lin at this point but who knows how teams across the league view Holt's value with his concussions and vertigo issues. I'd guess his value is about 0 right now. I'd never give up anything for a guy with concussion issues. I don't want Lin going anywhere, especially because he's going to be needed more this year. Maybe even to replace Holt.
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Post by jmei on Jul 21, 2017 9:50:48 GMT -5
This site is not just for pompous ultra stat geeks with highly corrective lenses. Perhaps I mistook your tone. Knock off the personal stuff. This is uncalled for. Thanks.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Jul 21, 2017 9:55:54 GMT -5
What black f-ing hole? The Lin / Marrero platoon have been a 2.1 WAR /150 G player. Along with Holt, you have your beautiful stopgap on hand already. The only reason Lin was sent down was the need to restock the bullpen while playing 58 innings in four days. BTW, Nunez has a career reverse platoon split, 96 wRC+ vs. RHP and 88 vs. LHP. Meanwhile, Marrero has been a +16 defender at 3B and has a 152 wRC+ vs. LHP in 42 PA. You can regress those numbers ridiculously and he's still a better option than Nunez for the RH platoon side. The defensive difference, regressed, is about 18 runs. A run of defense is 1.36 points of wRC+, so as long as Marrero's 152 doesn't regress below 64, he's the better option. If it were not a "black f---ing hole", the Sox would not be dominating the sports cycle trying to close it. We are making do. This site is not just for pompous ultra stat geeks with highly corrective lenses. Perhaps I mistook your tone. Calling someone a "stat geek" to try to disprove a point is baseball equivalent of "your a moron". You basically gave yourself up as a person who isn't smart enough to understand them and is instead choosing to ignore them. I don't even fully agree with Eric; I think a 1/2 year rental for a guy like Moustakas or Neil Walker is the right move. But that kind of ignorance is wild.
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Post by oleary25 on Jul 21, 2017 9:58:04 GMT -5
Just throwing out an idea. Detroit is looking to trim payroll, and it's been documented we have interest in Justin Wilson. Could we make a play for Ian kinsler ? I know he hasn't played third in a while but can DH spell pedrioa at 2B to keep him fresh , and can play 1B . His contract this season is 11 million . 2018 he has 10 million with a 5 million buyout . Just curious to see the forums thoughts cheers ! i mentioned this yesterday now today suggested by Ken Rosenthal : If I’m Red Sox general manager Dave Dombrowski, I’m surveying the third-base market and thinking, “Meh.” Mike Moustakas and Josh Harrison are unavailable. Martin Prado and Yangervis Solarte are injured. Eduardo Nunez? Asdrubal Cabrera? Yunel Escobar? I’m doubtful Dombrowski is looking at any of them and thinking, “this is the final piece to the puzzle.” And I’m hearing Dombrowski is mulling outside-the-box solutions, infielders at other positions who could move to third. Reds All-Star shortstop Zack Cozart would fit that description, but I’ve got an even better suggestion: Dombrowski’s old friend from the Tigers, second baseman Ian Kinsler. Let’s be clear: The suggestion is mine alone. Kinsler’s name has not surfaced in trade discussions between the clubs, major-league sources say. Besides, I’m not sure Kinsler would love the idea of changing not only teams but also positions in the middle of a pennant race. He is the game’s top defender at second, according to defensive runs saved, and some view him as an outside candidate for the Hall of Fame at the position. It is not known if the Red Sox are on Kinsler’s 10-team no-trade list. But either way, the move would be temporary. The Sox could assure Kinsler they would decline his $10 million club option, pay him his $5 million buyout and allow him to become a free agent.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 21, 2017 10:03:40 GMT -5
Seriously, the Yankee fear here is mind boggling sometimes. OMG, they're going to sign every FA out there - or at least all the ones they want. Including Moncada. They have a good team. The Sox have a good team. It will interesting to see who ends up on top. Maybe the Raya? I think a lot of people have forgotten the times when the Red Sox and Yankees were both Gladiators in the AL and not just the AL East. Each club had high profile line ups and starting rotations built for October baseball. Neither team feared the other, they just thought they were better. I want the years of Pedro, Varitek, Nixon (My favorite dirt dog of all time), DLowe, Schilling, Garciaparra, etc. I want those guys back. Never backing down, never giving in. I want those leave everything you have games and series out on the field again. Too many premadonnas in baseball today. Let's play some ball and see what happens. Will they be bringing Grady Little with them?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 21, 2017 10:04:51 GMT -5
I hate Ken Rosenthal's ideas personally. I don't know why the Sox would assure to pay Kinsler 5 million in dead money just so he could waive his no trade clause.
Cozart would be okay I suppose if the cost was low.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jul 21, 2017 10:11:12 GMT -5
Will they be bringing Grady Little with them? I wonder if he's Grady Big by now. Ok, I'll leave this thread.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 21, 2017 10:13:13 GMT -5
I hate Ken Rosenthal's ideas personally. I don't know why the Sox would assure to pay Kinsler 5 million in dead money just so he could waive his no trade clause. Cozart would be okay I suppose if the cost was low. Cozart's batted ball profile is almost identical to his 2016 profile, and he was well below average at the plate last year, yet mashing this year. He was banged up last year, but he's due for some huge regression. The money is bigger on Kinsler's end, but he's probably a better hitter true to talent, and he's a righty flyball hitter, and the Sox are home more often than not the rest of the way. I don't see him as a perfect fit and I'm not sure how his arm is, but his prospect cost would definitely not be high at all.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2017 10:13:58 GMT -5
In the last week the Red Sox have beaten Aroldis Chapman in the bottom of the ninth, then had a game where they came back twice against the Blue Jays before winning in 15 innings. This idea that the Red Sox need heart and grit and whatever other code words is just malarkey.
The 2003 team felt like it could come back from any deficit because it was a 1,000 run team! A two-run lead in the seventh inning wasn't unsafe because those guys had "heart," it was because they were very likely the best hitting team of the last 40 years.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 21, 2017 10:21:57 GMT -5
I hate Ken Rosenthal's ideas personally. I don't know why the Sox would assure to pay Kinsler 5 million in dead money just so he could waive his no trade clause. Cozart would be okay I suppose if the cost was low. Cozart's batted ball profile is almost identical to his 2016 profile, and he was well below average at the plate last year, yet mashing this year. He was banged up last year, but he's due for some huge regression. The money is bigger on Kinsler's end, but he's probably a better hitter true to talent, and he's a righty flyball hitter, and the Sox are home more often than not the rest of the way. I don't see him as a perfect fit and I'm not sure how his arm is, but his prospect cost would definitely not be high at all. Yeah I'm a big Kinsler fan myself, just don't why the Sox would ever agree to pay money for him to leave. If he came here, there would have to be no contractual reproductions to that deal. If he wants to come and be a part of a playoff race, then great. If not, then have fun losing in Detroit. Kinsler would almost have to play first base if he came here.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 21, 2017 11:42:46 GMT -5
If it were not a "black f---ing hole", the Sox would not be dominating the sports cycle trying to close it. We are making do. This site is not just for pompous ultra stat geeks with highly corrective lenses. Perhaps I mistook your tone. Calling someone a "stat geek" to try to disprove a point is baseball equivalent of "your a moron". You basically gave yourself up as a person who isn't smart enough to understand them and is instead choosing to ignore them. I don't even fully agree with Eric; I think a 1/2 year rental for a guy like Moustakas or Neil Walker is the right move. But that kind of ignorance is wild. Nope you have the wrong take here. I'm all for the use of advanced stats and for years decried baseball being anachronistic in not using technology to catch up with other sports. How long did it take to even get to "Moneyball" now so rudimentary. How far we have come. Let's get up to or ahead of the curve has been my mantra particularly as an organization. So,the use of stats to back up an argument, even to the neutron level, is elucidating...great stuff....no problem there. Eric probably is more stat knowledgeable than anyone here, it may be his business, and he is a great resource for all. I have complimented him a number of times. But,for me the use of an expletive to personally deride another's take is not. Using a lot of stats in juxtapose said that maybe Steve was a "moron". I was standing up for Steve. You felt I had done the same with Eric and took a similar swipe. I agree with jmei that personal derogatory comments by anyone should not be countenanced. I loved the way Lin played. He has outstanding zone judgement and a quick bat. On a sss, he 'looks' like a better fielder than Holt. Marrero has gotten a lot of production from a low average. Steve's comment stated it's clear that we can't live forever with the current 3B choices. The quandary is that we can't get a significant upgrade without depleting the farm further. I would love Moustakas as well.....
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 21, 2017 11:55:07 GMT -5
If he played only 3B going forward he would be above replacement level. His D at 2B, SS and OF has killed his war. Not that he is great at 3B, but it is his best position by a mile. If the cost is right it makes sense. He's been a -11 R/150 defender at 3B and projects to have a 94 wRC+ at the position, which is also below average. He's not as good as Lin, whose bat is comparable* and is a plus defender. End of discussion. *Clay Davenport has his MLE from Portland as a .273 EqA and his Sox EqA at .271. Nunez has been .267. For his career in 239 games at 3B he is -6 DRS. This year in 44 games he has been -2 DRS. His DRS average over 135 games is -4, not sure what numbers you are looking at. He is not horrible at 3B. We need offense, so I'm more than willing to give up a little D. Lin has been good, but we have no clue what he will do going forward. Give me a solid Vet if the price is right.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2017 16:11:35 GMT -5
Cozart's batted ball profile is almost identical to his 2016 profile, and he was well below average at the plate last year, yet mashing this year. He was banged up last year, but he's due for some huge regression. The money is bigger on Kinsler's end, but he's probably a better hitter true to talent, and he's a righty flyball hitter, and the Sox are home more often than not the rest of the way. I don't see him as a perfect fit and I'm not sure how his arm is, but his prospect cost would definitely not be high at all. Yeah I'm a big Kinsler fan myself, just don't why the Sox would ever agree to pay money for him to leave. If he came here, there would have to be no contractual reproductions to that deal. If he wants to come and be a part of a playoff race, then great. If not, then have fun losing in Detroit. Kinsler would almost have to play first base if he came here. If they ever did get Kinsler, I would actually toy with the idea of putting Pedroia on third and sticking Kinsler on 2nd. Pedroia was a SS all through his and he repeatedly shows superior arm strength. I'd have a lot more confidence in him there than Kinsler. 1st is not a bad idea though.
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Post by jmei on Jul 21, 2017 18:09:08 GMT -5
Pedroia was moved from SS to 2B primarily because of his arm. He's not moving to 3B.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2017 18:13:30 GMT -5
I believed then and continue to believe that was an error by the front pffice/player development folks.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 21, 2017 19:13:50 GMT -5
The record with Lin and Marrero at 3rd is pretty good; it's not a black hole any longer. If they do anything it should be for relief help.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 21, 2017 19:21:59 GMT -5
Fister to the BP
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 21, 2017 20:12:25 GMT -5
The record with Lin and Marrero at 3rd is pretty good; it's not a black hole any longer. If they do anything it should be for relief help. Rip I think that you might be drinking the cool aid here. Do you really believe a Lin/Marrero combo is a representative 3B for a contending team? Granted, good fielding % but low cumulative BA, power and run production. IMO if Devers doesn't advance this year, we indeed have a 3B black hole in 2017. We are also offensively weak at catcher and perhaps at 1B. I agree that an infusion at relief would help and I would target Justin Wilson as a strikeout (where it's at) lefty. With our good starting pitching and the absence of Thornburg and the uncertainty of Smith, this acquisition would, IMO, help as much as any.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 21, 2017 20:39:56 GMT -5
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 21, 2017 20:48:49 GMT -5
I believed then and continue to believe that was an error by the front pffice/player development folks. Guidas your reply was to jmei's assertion that Sox management determined Pedroia could only play 2B. I agree that this might not be true. I saw Pedey at Portland AA and was amazed at his ultra quick hands playing SS. At MLB we have seen him make many strong throws/plays off-balanced even to the left of 2B. We have witnessed strong and accurate throws on relays to the plate. So perhaps his size fit the then baseball prototype for 2b men. jmei implies knowledge of Sox position assessment (no basis offered) so he may have an "in" here. If so, perhaps he could share.
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