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2017 Trade Deadline Thread (Red Sox discussion)
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2017 21:21:08 GMT -5
What black f-ing hole? The Lin / Marrero platoon have been a 2.1 WAR /150 G player. Along with Holt, you have your beautiful stopgap on hand already. The only reason Lin was sent down was the need to restock the bullpen while playing 58 innings in four days. BTW, Nunez has a career reverse platoon split, 96 wRC+ vs. RHP and 88 vs. LHP. Meanwhile, Marrero has been a +16 defender at 3B and has a 152 wRC+ vs. LHP in 42 PA. You can regress those numbers ridiculously and he's still a better option than Nunez for the RH platoon side. The defensive difference, regressed, is about 18 runs. A run of defense is 1.36 points of wRC+, so as long as Marrero's 152 doesn't regress below 64, he's the better option. I don't see how you can get that analysis from Marrero's actual performance to date. It's Marerro they kept up, not Lin. Me thinks you are viewing this through rose colored glasses. Better than Pablo, I'll give you but he's replacement level unless you do some pretty creative accounting. Marrero through 55 games fWAR 0.00000 wRC+ 47 Brock Holt through 12 games fWAR -.2 wRC+ 37 Holt last year 94 games fWAR .2 wRC+ 86 that black hole and third base is neither's best position. Marrero doesn't hit enough to be a second division shortstop let alone third baseman and Holt is a versatile replacement level player who is not likely to be tendered. Devers is the obvious answer and needed a lot more than your projections imply. They kept Marrero and sent down Lin because Holt was taking over the LHB side of the platoon. Marrero has freakishly killed MLB LHP. Now, I did somehow misread Nunez's 3b defense; he's been a -7 defender this year, not -11, and has been a -5 defender over his career. He projects at -3 or -4 the rest of the way, while Marrero projects as +10 to +12. So Marrero has to put up a 69 wRC+ vs. LHP to be as good a platoon option as Nunez. Meanwhile, Lin hits RHP about as well as Nunez, or better, and is a significantly better defender. The bottom line is this: -- If you think Rafael Devers can be a 2.0 WAR /150 G player the last two months, he's your man. For points of comparison, Xander was a 2.9 - 3.5 WAR player in his '13 trial and Benintendi was a 2.3 to 2.8 WAR player last year. -- I agree with those who are unenthused about Holt as a solution. I'd rather have him back in his super-sub role. -- People overestimate the impact of one guy over two months, especially when you have an adequate stopgap. As I pointed out, the Lin / Marrero platoon has been worth 2.1 WAR / 150 G. Mike Moustakas has been a 2.6 WAR guy the last two years, so if the stopgap platoon can put up a 1.1, it's roughly a coin toss as to whether the trade ends up buying you a win (2.6 - 1.1 = 1.5; 1.5 / 3 = 0.5). I think there's a very good chance that the platoon can do that, so I'm not trading anything significant for that coin toss. If there were a 3.5 or 4.0 WAR rental out there, then you'd be thinking of a trade should Devers falter. But there isn't one. Frazier was a 3.4 WAR guy and he was gobbled up already. -- OTOH, I'm intrigued by the idea of dealing Moreland and acquiring Alonso. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 21, 2017 22:01:25 GMT -5
The Athletics signed Chris Carter today. I think that's a clear signal that the A's are ready to deal Alonso.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jul 22, 2017 0:46:59 GMT -5
The Athletics signed Chris Carter today. I think that's a clear signal that the A's are ready to deal Alonso. Not that I wouldn't mind getting Alonso, because he'd be an apparent upgrade over Moreland ATM, but I'm not sure if it would be a large enough bump up for whatever the A's would need. There's far more room for improvement on the current roster at 3B and behind the plate. Before the season, I would have said no way to parting with anything of much value for a catcher, but Vazquez seems to have hit a potential ceiling offensively, while who knows if Swihart will every be able to become a full time catcher. Leon and Vazquez are 33rd & 38th respectively in wRC+ among catchers with at least 150 PA, and admittedly in a not necessarily great predictor of catcher's defensive value, 34th/38th in fWAR. Marrero is 37th in fWAR among anyone with at least 150 PA at 3B, and sure, almost all the guys ahead have a significant more amount of PA's, but I don't think anyone would really say his overall production would really be that much better at 300 PA as opposed to 150. The obvious answer at 3B is Devers, and I really wouldn't be surprised if they stand pat at 3B until August, knowing at minimum they've got Marrero/Lin available if it's an outright disaster. I'm not sure I really have any sort of idea where they turn behind the plate, mainly because I hadn't really looked at it as much of an issue at all until relatively recently, while the 3B spot has been a disaster for 2+ years. The biggest gains this team probably can make/will make would likely come from the current roster. Be it Hanley going from meh offensively to the wRC+ 125+ guy he was last year, or Xander taking that next step offensively that he got to next year, or even Benintendi who flashed well above average offensive, albeit in a fairly small sample size last year, who's now roughly league average. If they can get any of that, and get some sort of upgrade(s) at C/3B, all of a sudden the team goes from very good (which I firmly believe it is now) to potentially stellar/elite, which is likely what they'd need to take down Houston |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 22, 2017 2:22:18 GMT -5
I don't see how you can get that analysis from Marrero's actual performance to date. It's Marerro they kept up, not Lin. Me thinks you are viewing this through rose colored glasses. Better than Pablo, I'll give you but he's replacement level unless you do some pretty creative accounting. Marrero through 55 games fWAR 0.00000 wRC+ 47 Brock Holt through 12 games fWAR -.2 wRC+ 37 Holt last year 94 games fWAR .2 wRC+ 86 that black hole and third base is neither's best position. Marrero doesn't hit enough to be a second division shortstop let alone third baseman and Holt is a versatile replacement level player who is not likely to be tendered. Devers is the obvious answer and needed a lot more than your projections imply. They kept Marrero and sent down Lin because Holt was taking over the LHB side of the platoon. Marrero has freakishly killed MLB LHP. Now, I did somehow misread Nunez's 3b defense; he's been a -7 defender this year, not -11, and has been a -5 defender over his career. He projects at -3 or -4 the rest of the way, while Marrero projects as +10 to +12. So Marrero has to put up a 69 wRC+ vs. LHP to be as good a platoon option as Nunez. Meanwhile, Lin hits RHP about as well as Nunez, or better, and is a significantly better defender. The bottom line is this: -- If you think Rafael Devers can be a 2.0 WAR /150 G player the last two months, he's your man. For points of comparison, Xander was a 2.9 - 3.5 WAR player in his '13 trial and Benintendi was a 2.3 to 2.8 WAR player last year. -- I agree with those who are unenthused about Holt as a solution. I'd rather have him back in his super-sub role. -- People overestimate the impact of one guy over two months, especially when you have an adequate stopgap. As I pointed out, the Lin / Marrero platoon has been worth 2.1 WAR / 150 G. Mike Moustakas has been a 2.6 WAR guy the last two years, so if the stopgap platoon can put up a 1.1, it's roughly a coin toss as to whether the trade ends up buying you a win (2.6 - 1.1 = 1.5; 1.5 / 3 = 0.5). I think there's a very good chance that the platoon can do that, so I'm not trading anything significant for that coin toss. If there were a 3.5 or 4.0 WAR rental out there, then you'd be thinking of a trade should Devers falter. But there isn't one. Frazier was a 3.4 WAR guy and he was gobbled up already. -- OTOH, I'm intrigued by the idea of dealing Moreland and acquiring Alonso. You continue to use Lin/Marrero as the platoon alternative when Lin is in Pawtucket and not looking like there will be room for him in Boston baring an injury. You are also using a 42 AB sample size for Marrero when there's far more complete stats at Pawtucket which don't correlate to his being a lefty killer. Sorry, just not buying it. Our current situation is that we have a replacement level platoon at 3B and it's going to get more complicated when we have to make a Rutledge decision. We do agree 100% though on Alonso/Moreland assuming the cost isn't exorbitant. ADD: I'm expecting Rutledge to have a relapse and need to go back on the DL until September. I believe he is still receiving a major league paycheck because he was in the majors when he went on the DL. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2017 8:03:23 GMT -5
The Athletics signed Chris Carter today. I think that's a clear signal that the A's are ready to deal Alonso. Just looking at Alonso's defensive stats makes worry more about Alonso. -10 DRS this year at first base. I don't think a switch to third base is realistic with those kind of defensive metrics at first base. There just isn't a whole lot of great options out there. |
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Post by giatree12 on Jul 22, 2017 8:32:18 GMT -5
I feel if Alonso is to be had at a low cost, they should get him. All the bats they can get would be nice, especially with Mitch struggling. Hanley is showing he is capable to play first more often, and they can DL Mitch to get healthy while Alonso and Hanley flip flop DH/1B. The price has to be right.
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Post by jmei on Jul 22, 2017 9:47:29 GMT -5
I believed then and continue to believe that was an error by the front pffice/player development folks. Guidas your reply was to jmei's assertion that Sox management determined Pedroia could only play 2B. I agree that this might not be true. I saw Pedey at Portland AA and was amazed at his ultra quick hands playing SS. At MLB we have seen him make many strong throws/plays off-balanced even to the left of 2B. We have witnessed strong and accurate throws on relays to the plate. So perhaps his size fit the then baseball prototype for 2b men. jmei implies knowledge of Sox position assessment (no basis offered) so he may have an "in" here. If so, perhaps he could share. Back when Pedroia was a prospect, the book on him was that he had the range for SS but was a better fit for 2B due to a fringy arm. |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2017 10:18:38 GMT -5
I've seen him throw out guys at first from shallow outfield behind second while on his knees and his butt multiple times in just the last few years, never mind over the life of his pro career. He may not be Adrian Beltre, but that arm would play at least average at 3rd.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 22, 2017 10:38:26 GMT -5
I've seen him throw out guys at first from shallow outfield behind second while on his knees and his butt multiple times in just the last few years, never mind over the life of his pro career. He may not be Adrian Beltre, but that arm would play at least average at 3rd. Yes, but, that arm creates outs, double plays, and other 2nd base magic that most 2nd basemen are simply unable to create. Those are reasons to NOT mess with one of the best defensive 2B in the game. The issue is 3B, maybe 1B. Among Devers, Holt, Lin, Marrero, there is a better solution. Devers may be THE solution in a matter of weeks. Don't mess that up either. And Mitch has been hitting the ball with more authority recently, so perhaps Mitch, Travis, Hanley, Holt are also better solutions at 1B. IMO, unless the trade is for a substantial offensive upgrade with no defensive fall off, leave things alone. And if a clearly better option is available, sign him, but not at the expense of our few remaining steong prospects. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 22, 2017 11:20:18 GMT -5
I don't see how you can get that analysis from Marrero's actual performance to date. It's Marerro they kept up, not Lin. Me thinks you are viewing this through rose colored glasses. Better than Pablo, I'll give you but he's replacement level unless you do some pretty creative accounting. Marrero through 55 games fWAR 0.00000 wRC+ 47 Brock Holt through 12 games fWAR -.2 wRC+ 37 Holt last year 94 games fWAR .2 wRC+ 86 that black hole and third base is neither's best position. Marrero doesn't hit enough to be a second division shortstop let alone third baseman and Holt is a versatile replacement level player who is not likely to be tendered. Devers is the obvious answer and needed a lot more than your projections imply. They kept Marrero and sent down Lin because Holt was taking over the LHB side of the platoon. Marrero has freakishly killed MLB LHP. Now, I did somehow misread Nunez's 3b defense; he's been a -7 defender this year, not -11, and has been a -5 defender over his career. He projects at -3 or -4 the rest of the way, while Marrero projects as +10 to +12. So Marrero has to put up a 69 wRC+ vs. LHP to be as good a platoon option as Nunez. Meanwhile, Lin hits RHP about as well as Nunez, or better, and is a significantly better defender. The bottom line is this: -- If you think Rafael Devers can be a 2.0 WAR /150 G player the last two months, he's your man. For points of comparison, Xander was a 2.9 - 3.5 WAR player in his '13 trial and Benintendi was a 2.3 to 2.8 WAR player last year. -- I agree with those who are unenthused about Holt as a solution. I'd rather have him back in his super-sub role. -- People overestimate the impact of one guy over two months, especially when you have an adequate stopgap. As I pointed out, the Lin / Marrero platoon has been worth 2.1 WAR / 150 G. Mike Moustakas has been a 2.6 WAR guy the last two years, so if the stopgap platoon can put up a 1.1, it's roughly a coin toss as to whether the trade ends up buying you a win (2.6 - 1.1 = 1.5; 1.5 / 3 = 0.5). I think there's a very good chance that the platoon can do that, so I'm not trading anything significant for that coin toss. If there were a 3.5 or 4.0 WAR rental out there, then you'd be thinking of a trade should Devers falter. But there isn't one. Frazier was a 3.4 WAR guy and he was gobbled up already. -- OTOH, I'm intrigued by the idea of dealing Moreland and acquiring Alonso. Where are you getting your numbers? Baseball Reference and Fan Graph aren't even close to what you are saying. Nevermind you're acting like Marrero is a lefty killer in under 50 ABs. He wasn't good at that in 2015 or 2016, it's too small of a sample size. It literally means nothing. The margin of error in what you are claiming Marrero, Lin and Devers can do is sky high. You get a solid Vet on the cheap and see what Devers can do. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 22, 2017 12:10:47 GMT -5
The record with Lin and Marrero at 3rd is pretty good; it's not a black hole any longer. If they do anything it should be for relief help. Rip I think that you might be drinking the cool aid here. Do you really believe a Lin/Marrero combo is a representative 3B for a contending team? Granted, good fielding % but low cumulative BA, power and run production. IMO if Devers doesn't advance this year, we indeed have a 3B black hole in 2017. We are also offensively weak at catcher and perhaps at 1B. I agree that an infusion at relief would help and I would target Justin Wilson as a strikeout (where it's at) lefty. With our good starting pitching and the absence of Thornburg and the uncertainty of Smith, this acquisition would, IMO, help as much as any. Who's koolaide is that? Yes, I do think the players in house can be on a championship team if the other players are doing what they can and should do. Can they upgrade it? Sure but at what cost. This is all a cost benefit exercise. I don't think it's a desperate need. Bullpen is a much bigger need and I would much prefer they invest there if anywhere. |
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 22, 2017 14:11:05 GMT -5
There probably are teams with worse 3B production, but off the top I can't think of any. And there probably are teams with less offense at catcher although none readily come to mind
Maybe I'm drinking the Koolaide having read so many articles on how and why the Sox are so desperate to upgrade 3B. But for a contending team with WS aspirations it would be wonderful to have offensive options. Our defensive rank is about middle but to the naked eye is outstanding. Our pitching is very un-Sox like and realistically will have to carry us. As you say, it's a cost/ benefit analysis...so I don't expect much given our farm and its untouchables. Wouldn't it be nice to have a Margot or Dubon still in the quiver?
But, there is no crying in baseball.
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Post by manfred on Jul 22, 2017 14:31:18 GMT -5
There probably are teams with worse 3B production, but off the top I can't think of any. And there probably are teams with less offense at catcher although none readily come to mind Maybe I'm drinking the Koolaide having read so many articles on how and why the Sox are so desperate to upgrade 3B. But for a contending team with WS aspirations it would be wonderful to have offensive options. Our defensive rank is about middle but to the naked eye is outstanding. Our pitching is very un-Sox like and realistically will have to carry us. As you say, it's a cost/ benefit analysis...so I don't expect much given our farm and its untouchables. Wouldn't it be nice to have a Margot or Dubon still in the quiver? But, there is no crying in baseball. If I'm not reading fangraphs wrong, the Giants haveless 3B production. I am not correcting... I write this because I am stunned the Sox are not last. Edit: maybe, too, 1B is a problem worth considering. Sox are 26th at C, but only 25th at 1B (again, correct me if I am misreading fangraphs info): www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2017 14:40:39 GMT -5
I've seen him throw out guys at first from shallow outfield behind second while on his knees and his butt multiple times in just the last few years, never mind over the life of his pro career. He may not be Adrian Beltre, but that arm would play at least average at 3rd. Yes, but, that arm creates outs, double plays, and other 2nd base magic that most 2nd basemen are simply unable to create. Those are reasons to NOT mess with one of the best defensive 2B in the game. The issue is 3B, maybe 1B. Among Devers, Holt, Lin, Marrero, there is a better solution. Devers may be THE solution in a matter of weeks. Don't mess that up either. And Mitch has been hitting the ball with more authority recently, so perhaps Mitch, Travis, Hanley, Holt are also better solutions at 1B. IMO, unless the trade is for a substantial offensive upgrade with no defensive fall off, leave things alone. And if a clearly better option is available, sign him, but not at the expense of our few remaining steong prospects. Agreed. I only suggested this if they acquired Kindler. And I don't think they will, but it was mentioned. |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2017 14:43:54 GMT -5
Guidas your reply was to jmei's assertion that Sox management determined Pedroia could only play 2B. I agree that this might not be true. I saw Pedey at Portland AA and was amazed at his ultra quick hands playing SS. At MLB we have seen him make many strong throws/plays off-balanced even to the left of 2B. We have witnessed strong and accurate throws on relays to the plate. So perhaps his size fit the then baseball prototype for 2b men. jmei implies knowledge of Sox position assessment (no basis offered) so he may have an "in" here. If so, perhaps he could share. Back when Pedroia was a prospect, the book on him was that he had the range for SS but was a better fit for 2B due to a fringy arm. Wasn't this the same rationale for moving Mookie off SS to 2nd? As we've seen from him in RF, the arm is strong and powerful. |
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 22, 2017 18:11:39 GMT -5
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Post by oleary25 on Jul 22, 2017 20:13:52 GMT -5
I don't know how relivent this is but I just read Jose Abreu was taking grounders at third base before today's game.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2017 20:26:48 GMT -5
This team is creating an exercise in how many sub-replacement level players they can add to the roster in one year. |
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Post by oleary25 on Jul 22, 2017 20:35:19 GMT -5
Jose Abreu took grounders at third base before Saturday's game. It's not uncommon for players to experiment at new positions during BP but Abreu's presence at third is notable now that Todd Frazier, who was just traded to the Yankees on Tuesday, is no longer manning the hot corner. Beat reporter Scott Merkin of MLB.com was surprised at how fluid Abreu looked on the left side of the infield, though he's never played there in a major league game. Yolmer Sanchez and Matt Davidson have been sharing time at third since the Frazier trade. Jul 22 - 9:00 PM via rotoworld source Scott Merkin on twitter Also in 2015 Jose abreu mentioned he played third base experience and manager Robin Ventura said he would consider using him in emergency situations. www.thescore.com/mlb/news/744483 |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2017 3:33:20 GMT -5
I still don't know how the Sox could trade for Abreu and actually stick him at third. If they trade for him, it's going to be for first base. He's not a great defender even at first base (-3 DRS this season).
All signs point to a Devers call up by September. There is no other way of fixing that problem other then Devers getting called up.
For me though, Abreu is the best option if you want a great offensive cleanup hitting type. You won't lose that much defensively compared to Alonso at first base too, who looks bad there this season.
When you compare Abreu to Moreland, you stand to gain a full 100 points OPS wise while losing 5-6 runs a season defensively (give or take a run or two less or more). That is still a huge upgrade imo. The Sox should try to convince the White Sox to trade him, regardless of him being a presence for the former Red Sox blue chip prospect, Yoan Moncada.
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Post by sparkygian on Jul 23, 2017 8:26:08 GMT -5
The Sox have a hole in the lineup, more than they have a hole on the field. This team desperately needs a clutch cleanup hitter. The only one on the roster is Betts, who leads the team in HRs and RBIs, yet for some reason is batting leadoff. Why??? Couldn't Xander, or Beni, or Pedroia bat leadoff, and have Betts hit 4th? I believe having a solid power bat hitting 4th will help Ramirez, who I believe is suffering from not having a Ortiz
hitting in front of him. Ramirez is clearly a no 5 hitter, and needs a good bat hitting in front of him to give him better pitches to look at.
Also I do think the Sox have plenty of assets to go get that power bat that this team sorely lacks. I would not be against trading Beni, one of the starting pitchers besides Sale, either Swihart or Vazquez, B. Johnson (who's ready to pitch in the Major Leagues for someone imo), and a couple of prospects to get that cleanup hitter this team so desperately needs.
Let's go get Trout! I'm sure that'll never happen, but I do think the Sox have plenty of assets to trade for a player who can cure what ails this team. Plus that kind of bat will also take pressure of Devers when he comes up, as obviously everyone is gonna want to stick him in the cleanup spot. Which could be way too much for a 20 year old to take on in the heat of a pennant race, and possibly the playoffs.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2017 8:34:22 GMT -5
So basically stemming off my last Abreu post, I think that if the Sox were to trade for a guy like Abreu, he'd create 10-25 more runs with the bat versus Moreland but I think he'd lose 1-3 runs defensively that Moreland might save. That's just for the rest of the 2017 season.
That's a very good upgrade in Abreu who has team control past this year. The Sox have to at least explore this idea of getting Abreu.
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Post by sparkygian on Jul 23, 2017 8:43:50 GMT -5
I know it would be an incredibly difficult thing for the Angels to give up Trout, as his popularity for Angels fans is off the charts. However if the Angels really wanted to get better as a team soon, why wouldn't they at least consider trading him? If they could bet Benintendi, one of the Sox starting five besides Sale, Brian Johnson, Swihart or Vazquez, and Groome and Chavis, would they not be at least tempted? Would Sox fans be against it?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2017 8:47:08 GMT -5
I know it would be an incredibly difficult thing for the Angels to give up Trout, as his popularity for Angels fans is off the charts. However if the Angels really wanted to get better as a team soon, why wouldn't they at least consider trading him? If they could bet Benintendi, one of the Sox starting five besides Sale, Brian Johnson, Swihart or Vazquez, and Groome and Chavis, would they not be at least tempted? Would Sox fans be against it? A Mike Trout trade isn't happening. Dream all you want but you are wasting a lot of time by even bringing up the question. |
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Post by ricelynnevans on Jul 23, 2017 9:14:14 GMT -5
Looks like the Royals need to lose the rest of the way to the deadline for the moose idea to have a chance. Don't see that happening. It would be nice to help them decide to sell next weekend with a sweep at Fenway, but even a full down spin probably won't make them sellers at this point.
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