2017 Trade Deadline Thread (Red Sox discussion)

Didn't think Travis Shaw would have the kind of year he's having, but trading him away could single-handedly cost the Sox a playoff spot.

What about adding RPs...anyone know a bit more on this guy, who is apparently available, and wouldn't seem to profile as too costly -



"After signing a minor league deal with a $900K base salary this offseason, the 31-year-old Swarzak has broken out with the best season of his career. In 48 1/3 innings with the South Siders, he’s averaged 9.7 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 with a 40.5 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.23 ERA. The former second-round pick is averaging 94.5 mph on his heater this year and has posted a 14 percent swinging-strike rate that dwarfs his previous career-high of 10.6 percent. Swarzak’s 71.9 percent contact rate sits nearly six percentage points below the league average of 77.5 percent.

Swarzak picked up the first save of his career in yesterday’s win over the Cubs, though his stint as the de facto closer in Chicago may not last all that long, as he’s a free agent at season’s end and is widely expected to be traded. The Brewers are known to be on the lookout for bullpen help, and Swarzak’s status as a rental and lack of a dominant track record should make him a reasonably affordable piece to acquire via trade, even with this year’s exceptional results."

Evergreen comment.

Never mind

Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago reports (via Twitter) that the Brewers are sending outfield prospect Ryan Cordell to the White Sox in exchange for Swarzak. Cordell spent less than a full season in the Brewers’ system, as he’d previously been acquired as the player to be named later in last summer’s Jonathan Lucroy/Jeremy Jeffress trade with the Rangers.

Lots of chatter Eduardo Nunez has been traded possibly/probably to the RedSox. Guess we will see shortly.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are discussing a trade with Oakland for Gray and Alonso, running their trade haul to 5 impact players in the month of July. The Sox big move is to bring in Nunez. Fighting for a wild card spot any day now once the Yankees go past.

Yeah, that'll fix it.

I would be happy with Bruce or Alonso. They could DL Moreland with his toe injury and bring him back when the roster expands, giving them a nice PH vs RHP in the playoffs.

Adding a bat.

I strongly disagree with the media notion that we can add an OF or DH because Hanley can play 1B. That's a nice flexibility option, but there are four actual 1B on the market who would be as better defensively than Hanley's -6 R/150, and would keep him at DH where he is once again, as always, hitting much better than at 1B.

The guy that might be the best fit has maybe gotten the least ink -- Lucas Duda. Unlike Smoak, Alonso, and Bour, he's a good defender. Unlike Smoak, Alonso, and Adams, he's not having a breakout season, so there's less downside. Here's wRC+ this year, career, and ROS projection. The last number is DRS career per 150 games.

127, 122, 118 Duda (+4) FA
152, 102, 116 Smoak (-3) 1/$4.1M + $6M option
139, 106, 110 Alonso (+4 but -9 the last 2 years, which is what scouts are seeing) FA
133, 121, 111 Bour (-4) 3 YRS
125, 112, 103 Adams (+6) 1 YR (125 = with Braves)

Smoak would cost more as an intra-division guy, Bour even more given the 3 years of control. Alonso's defense is a deal-breaker for me.

All is not rosy with Duda, however. He's struggled in his career in challenge situations, so he's losing value when he joins a better-hitting lineup, and he's feasted in low leverage, which suggests that he's fattened his numbers against subpar pitching. The more I think about those two factors, the less desirable he seems (yes, I'm running the numbers as I type this up!)

Bour is neutral in that regard, and has been terrific with RISP and very good in high leverage.

Adams has good leverage splits and has thrived in challenge situations.

What I don't know and won't look into, at least not today: whether deep metrics indicate Adams has really figured something out with the Braves, and how each of these three guys would ft in Fenway.

Edit: Smoak, in his career, has had awful challenge / pitch-around splits, which is to say he's suffered from protection. I have no idea if that's still true. His leverage splits are solid.

I agree with Eric's last few posts and to me that's why the Mets match up since Blevins is a quality LHP. We would need some money paid down to get both he and Duda though.