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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 13, 2018 13:45:16 GMT -5
Ouch. What a picture. Thx.
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Post by sittingstill on Nov 13, 2018 14:21:27 GMT -5
It looks like his UCL is just going to snap while pitching. In fairness that was his Lowell debut in 2017; seemed a bit less extreme in spring training this year. (It was pretty wild shooting his debut, though--shot the first few pitches and thought, I have no idea what these shots will look like because I don't think I've ever seen anyone pitch quite that way before.)
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2018 15:26:46 GMT -5
I like that he's now looking towards home plate with his eyes open when releasing the ball.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2018 18:45:27 GMT -5
I like that he's now looking towards home plate with his eyes open when releasing the ball. In the Lowell pic he looks like he's being really snobby. "This pitch is too good for you. You don't even deserve to swing through it."
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Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2018 18:47:16 GMT -5
I like that he's now looking towards home plate with his eyes open when releasing the ball. Kinda looking there. Or at the mascot. Or that girl two rows behind the dugout.
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Post by borisman on Nov 14, 2018 11:20:33 GMT -5
I like that he's now looking towards home plate with his eyes open when releasing the ball. Kinda looking there. Or at the mascot. Or that girl two rows behind the dugout. Definitely the "meet me at so & so place after the game" two rows up. "Bring some friends".
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Post by ramireja on Mar 27, 2019 13:31:53 GMT -5
I know there was mention of this tweet in the bullpen thread (for good reason), but I'm also going to post here:
This has me excited for Houck in 2019. I know I've been an advocate of Houck since he was drafted. On the previous page of this thread, I tried to sell everyone on the idea that his season in Salem last year was as good as our recent college pitching prospects' (e.g., Matt Barnes, Brian Johnson, Workman, Beeks, etc.) High A seasons after he scrapped the mechanical and pitch repertoire changes he initially made when entering the system. I personally think there is every reason to be as excited about him as we have been about guys like Barnes, Ranaudo, etc when they showed some success. The biggest threats to his ability to start seem to be tied to his delivery and lack of a third average pitch....but, I think my own concerns are at least partially alleviated based on his track record of health (3 healthy seasons at Mizzou and last year's full season debut), and I also tend to think that when you have a fastball with as much velocity and movement as his, a third pitch becomes less important. Thats not to say I don't think he needs a third viable pitch, but I think he could make it as a starter as a guy who throws 90-95% of his pitches with his 2-seamer and slider. I can't help but think of Justin Masterson who put together a really solid career (16.4 fWAR) with a career pitch distribution of FB (77.5%), SL (21.3%), and CH (1.2%). I'm not saying Masteron's career represents Houck's likeliest projection, but I do think it represents an optimistic yet realistic projection (think best 5-10% outcome). I'd put his middle projection as something of a #2/3 reliever on a contending team, but I am bullish on his chances to remain as a starter. More bullish than my projections of Darwinzon and Mata.
I have Houck ranked as #2 on my personal sox prospects rankings (behind Chavis, and basically on a tier with Darwinzon). I know thats high relative to the industry consensus but I'm curious where you all have him ranked?
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Mar 27, 2019 13:45:07 GMT -5
I know there was mention of this tweet in the bullpen thread (for good reason), but I'm also going to post here: This has me excited for Houck in 2019. I know I've been an advocate of Houck since he was drafted. On the previous page of this thread, I tried to sell everyone on the idea that his season in Salem last year was as good as our recent college pitching prospects' (e.g., Matt Barnes, Brian Johnson, Workman, Beeks, etc.) High A seasons after he scrapped the mechanical and pitch repertoire changes he initially made when entering the system. I personally think there is every reason to be as excited about him as we have been about guys like Barnes, Ranaudo, etc when they showed some success. The biggest threats to his ability to start seem to be tied to his delivery and lack of a third average pitch....but, I think my own concerns are at least partially alleviated based on his track record of health (3 healthy seasons at Mizzou and last year's full season debut), and I also tend to think that when you have a fastball with as much velocity and movement as his, a third pitch becomes less important. Thats not to say I don't think he needs a third viable pitch, but I think he could make it as a starter as a guy who throws 90-95% of his pitches with his 2-seamer and slider. I can't help but think of Justin Masterson who put together a really solid career (16.4 fWAR) with a career pitch distribution of FB (77.5%), SL (21.3%), and CH (1.2%). I'm not saying Masteron's career represents Houck's likeliest projection, but I do think it represents an optimistic yet realistic projection (think best 5-10% outcome). I'd put his middle projection as something of a #2/3 reliever on a contending team, but I am bullish on his chances to remain as a starter. More bullish than my projections of Darwinzon and Mata. I have Houck ranked as #2 on my personal sox prospects rankings (behind Chavis, and basically on a tier with Darwinzon). I know thats high relative to the industry consensus but I'm curious where you all have him ranked? I agree. I think he'll be a good reliever at minimum. We all know that one of those with control is very valuable today.
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Post by Canseco on Mar 27, 2019 14:30:37 GMT -5
HOUCK SMASH!!!! AAAARRRRRGGGHHHH!
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Mar 27, 2019 14:40:15 GMT -5
Too bad he isn't a lefty. Then his low end projection could be "Houck a LOOGY".
Ok that's two horrible posts in two days so I'm going to take a break.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 27, 2019 15:22:42 GMT -5
I know there was mention of this tweet in the bullpen thread (for good reason), but I'm also going to post here: This has me excited for Houck in 2019. I know I've been an advocate of Houck since he was drafted. On the previous page of this thread, I tried to sell everyone on the idea that his season in Salem last year was as good as our recent college pitching prospects' (e.g., Matt Barnes, Brian Johnson, Workman, Beeks, etc.) High A seasons after he scrapped the mechanical and pitch repertoire changes he initially made when entering the system. I personally think there is every reason to be as excited about him as we have been about guys like Barnes, Ranaudo, etc when they showed some success. The biggest threats to his ability to start seem to be tied to his delivery and lack of a third average pitch....but, I think my own concerns are at least partially alleviated based on his track record of health (3 healthy seasons at Mizzou and last year's full season debut), and I also tend to think that when you have a fastball with as much velocity and movement as his, a third pitch becomes less important. Thats not to say I don't think he needs a third viable pitch, but I think he could make it as a starter as a guy who throws 90-95% of his pitches with his 2-seamer and slider. I can't help but think of Justin Masterson who put together a really solid career (16.4 fWAR) with a career pitch distribution of FB (77.5%), SL (21.3%), and CH (1.2%). I'm not saying Masteron's career represents Houck's likeliest projection, but I do think it represents an optimistic yet realistic projection (think best 5-10% outcome). I'd put his middle projection as something of a #2/3 reliever on a contending team, but I am bullish on his chances to remain as a starter. More bullish than my projections of Darwinzon and Mata. I have Houck ranked as #2 on my personal sox prospects rankings (behind Chavis, and basically on a tier with Darwinzon). I know thats high relative to the industry consensus but I'm curious where you all have him ranked? Good stuff. I agree for the most part. He has a little higher floor than Darwinzon, but The Evolution has a much higher ceiling in my opinion. I think with maturity, his mindset, consistency, and control will all improve. I think he'll be in the Boston Bullpen come July, but I think he can be the #5 starter next year, replacing Porcello. I hope so. But, not to turn this into a thread about The Evolution . . . I'd have the Incredible Houck a bit behind The Evolution, personally. (I think Chavis is still #1, but not by much). But there's a lot to be excited about with Houck. Maybe he makes the Boston BP this year. With the Boston 1-4 starters locked up for the next 3-4 years, they might have to decide between DH and Houck as the 5th starter vs the BP role from 2020-2022. It will be interesting to see them develop and what the Sox decide to do.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 27, 2019 15:52:41 GMT -5
I know there was mention of this tweet in the bullpen thread (for good reason), but I'm also going to post here: This has me excited for Houck in 2019. I know I've been an advocate of Houck since he was drafted. On the previous page of this thread, I tried to sell everyone on the idea that his season in Salem last year was as good as our recent college pitching prospects' (e.g., Matt Barnes, Brian Johnson, Workman, Beeks, etc.) High A seasons after he scrapped the mechanical and pitch repertoire changes he initially made when entering the system. I personally think there is every reason to be as excited about him as we have been about guys like Barnes, Ranaudo, etc when they showed some success. The biggest threats to his ability to start seem to be tied to his delivery and lack of a third average pitch....but, I think my own concerns are at least partially alleviated based on his track record of health (3 healthy seasons at Mizzou and last year's full season debut), and I also tend to think that when you have a fastball with as much velocity and movement as his, a third pitch becomes less important. Thats not to say I don't think he needs a third viable pitch, but I think he could make it as a starter as a guy who throws 90-95% of his pitches with his 2-seamer and slider. I can't help but think of Justin Masterson who put together a really solid career (16.4 fWAR) with a career pitch distribution of FB (77.5%), SL (21.3%), and CH (1.2%). I'm not saying Masteron's career represents Houck's likeliest projection, but I do think it represents an optimistic yet realistic projection (think best 5-10% outcome). I'd put his middle projection as something of a #2/3 reliever on a contending team, but I am bullish on his chances to remain as a starter. More bullish than my projections of Darwinzon and Mata. I have Houck ranked as #2 on my personal sox prospects rankings (behind Chavis, and basically on a tier with Darwinzon). I know thats high relative to the industry consensus but I'm curious where you all have him ranked? Good stuff. I agree for the most part. He has a little higher floor than Darwinzon, but The Evolution has a much higher ceiling in my opinion. I think with maturity, his mindset, consistency, and control will all improve. I think he'll be in the Boston Bullpen come July, but I think he can be the #5 starter next year, replacing Porcello. I hope so. But, not to turn this into a thread about The Evolution . . . I'd have the Incredible Houck a bit behind The Evolution, personally. (I think Chavis is still #1, but not by much). But there's a lot to be excited about with Houck. Maybe he makes the Boston BP this year. With the Boston 1-4 starters locked up for the next 3-4 years, they might have to decide between DH and Houck as the 5th starter vs the BP role from 2020-2022. It will be interesting to see them develop and what the Sox decide to do. When it comes to Houck, I just keep getting the impression of past Red Sox pitchers who were kind of like hybrids. Houck's pitch repertoire, or K/9 is nothing like the guys that I'm going to mention, but I think some of his usage patterns will resemble some of these guys: Justin Masterson Bob Stanley Derek Lowe I guess I can see the Red Sox trying him as a starter, not initially, but eventually, and then resettling with being a high leverage workhorse reliever who can go multi-innings. In Masterson's case he started out as a reliever and made the transition to starter and I remember he had a nice 2013, but I always felt he would have been better long-term in relief. In Stanley's case he was a work horse reliever who eventually started for a brief time before become a workhorse reliever (big-time), then became the closer where he was kind of miscast, was then miscast as a starter again and wound up back in that high leverage setup role. In Lowe's case he was a reliever who eventually closed before trying the starters' gig and it worked for him. I don't know that Houck will make it as a starter and I suspect he'll come up as a reliever although they have to exhaust that starting pitcher avenue at some point. I think ultimately he could be excellent as a workhorse reliever leading up to Feltman and Hernandez down the road.
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Post by sittingstill on Mar 27, 2019 18:34:44 GMT -5
From the Tuesday Ian referenced:
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pd
Rookie
Posts: 239
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Post by pd on Mar 27, 2019 19:08:51 GMT -5
I can't even begin to fathom what direction the ball is going.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 27, 2019 22:03:01 GMT -5
I know there was mention of this tweet in the bullpen thread (for good reason), but I'm also going to post here: This has me excited for Houck in 2019. I know I've been an advocate of Houck since he was drafted. On the previous page of this thread, I tried to sell everyone on the idea that his season in Salem last year was as good as our recent college pitching prospects' (e.g., Matt Barnes, Brian Johnson, Workman, Beeks, etc.) High A seasons after he scrapped the mechanical and pitch repertoire changes he initially made when entering the system. I personally think there is every reason to be as excited about him as we have been about guys like Barnes, Ranaudo, etc when they showed some success. The biggest threats to his ability to start seem to be tied to his delivery and lack of a third average pitch....but, I think my own concerns are at least partially alleviated based on his track record of health (3 healthy seasons at Mizzou and last year's full season debut), and I also tend to think that when you have a fastball with as much velocity and movement as his, a third pitch becomes less important. Thats not to say I don't think he needs a third viable pitch, but I think he could make it as a starter as a guy who throws 90-95% of his pitches with his 2-seamer and slider. I can't help but think of Justin Masterson who put together a really solid career (16.4 fWAR) with a career pitch distribution of FB (77.5%), SL (21.3%), and CH (1.2%). I'm not saying Masteron's career represents Houck's likeliest projection, but I do think it represents an optimistic yet realistic projection (think best 5-10% outcome). I'd put his middle projection as something of a #2/3 reliever on a contending team, but I am bullish on his chances to remain as a starter. More bullish than my projections of Darwinzon and Mata. I have Houck ranked as #2 on my personal sox prospects rankings (behind Chavis, and basically on a tier with Darwinzon). I know thats high relative to the industry consensus but I'm curious where you all have him ranked? I think he stays a starter, because I think he gets the CH to 45-50, maybe 55. As long as it’s a bit better than “show-me,” I think you’re on with your Masterson comp (distribution-wise). If he can command it, even if it’s just average, I think that ups the effectiveness substantially. I like the arm angle (he’s still low-3/4), a lot like Sale from the R. The slider definitely flashes 60, maybe sometimes better. I think that’s going to get plenty of whiffs. I also think that, while he can probably rely on, and have success with, the 2-seam, the fact that he’s experimented extensively with the 4FB is a big bonus. It’s high-spin apparently, and I think the real issue for him was lack of command and leaving it too middle-up vs. up-and-out. I think eventually he might well improve his command to where he can effectively locate the 4FB (say, up and in but over the plate), and get even more whiffs, particularly because his SL and CH should be good up-down weapons with the 4FB. I’m especially encouraged by his velocity, too. The 2FB movement is quite good, and 92-95T96 means he’s probably averaging right around 94. That’s a 55 or 60 (mlb avg is 93), without including movement. And, it’s ST, so I’d imagine that velo ticks up to 93-96T98, averaging close to 95. Then you’re talking 65-70FB if the movement holds, and I think that even with just an average CH and average command, it’s basically a solid 3 profile. His health has been very good, and he seems like he’s built for 32 starts. He probably doesn’t have Darwinzon’s upside, so I like Hernandez a shade more, but I think you’re right on in terms of excellent setup/4 projection, with an outside shot at being a solid 2, and the floor of a reliable swingman/5. I prefer his stuff to Masterson’s at a similar stage, tho it’s tough to project him to translate it just yet. And I’ve said it before, but it eats repeating: his willingness to incorporate some pretty global changes based on his spin data tells me he’s more likely to find the “right” mix for him. That sort of desire for an edge is absolutely key to success, so I really think he’s much lower risk to stick as a starter than the industry CW seems to be. I find the “bulldog” trope pretty tired, but at the same time I think there is some “real” to it (like Chris Sale remaking himself in college), especially when it comes to guys who aren’t stubbornly resistant, but stubbornly *adaptable*. Not the guy who thinks he knows everything, but the guy who thinks he needs to learn. I really like what I’ve seen from Houck there, so far.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 27, 2019 22:24:14 GMT -5
Tbh, the more I think about it, the more I like the Masterson comp. And again, their progression’s been similar and, just like Masterson in 2008 (at 23), Houck’s starting the year in AA and looks to be a potential bullpen break-in by midseason. Houck sits 2 mph faster, and misses more bats, but with a similar (2:1, basically) GB:FB ratio. And Masterson had what was essentially a 5-year stretch from 2010-2014 where he was a strong 3 to solid 2, including a 5.1 fWAR year in 2013 (kind of like Porcello’s Cy season). They’re similar in build (Masterson was heavier, but they’re both tall AF), and both had good health histories at this point in their careers. I don’t put much stock in Houck’s high BB rate last year as he was using two new pitches (4FB, CB), and it plummeted when he went back to 2FB/SL. FWIW, Masterson, during his very good run, was basically entirely (2FB)SI/SL. So there’s certainly a roadmap for Houck to be a good pitcher even without the CH. With a true CH (or another 3rd pitch), I think his ceiling might adjust up a bit. Kevin Brown is another 2FB/SL guy with no particularly good third pitch who had tons of success. So I’m definitely on the Houck bandwagon.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2019 8:29:22 GMT -5
What does Houck throw to lefties? I haven't seen such an extreme side arm in awhile.
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Post by sittingstill on May 9, 2019 9:51:36 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on May 9, 2019 10:19:34 GMT -5
A few words I didn't understand in that. laminar pronation TrackMan Rapsodo
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Post by sittingstill on May 9, 2019 11:08:19 GMT -5
A few words I didn't understand in that. laminar pronation TrackMan Rapsodo [/quote] Here's one summary: From Trackman to Edgertronic to Rapsodo, the Tech Boom Is Fundamentally Altering BaseballWe had the opportunity at the Sabermetrics, Scouting and the Science of Baseball conference in 2017 to see the Rapsodo setup--it was pretty amazing, though I didn't get a great shot of the display screen. The instantaneous measurements of something they'd just set up on the plaza at BU were incredible to see. (I can't recommend this conference enough for those in the Boston area, BTW. 2019 dates are August 10-11.)
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Post by orion09 on May 9, 2019 12:26:37 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 9, 2019 12:59:33 GMT -5
Houck is really impressive.
I think of all their pitching prospects, he's the one guy I can see helping the Sox the most at the end of the season out of the pen.
Lakins looks very lost. His control isn't there. Hernandez will get a crack, but his control is spotty, to be kind. Lakins will get a look, but I think Houck has the best shot of coming up to the majors and being a 6th/7th inning contributor this season (I'm talking August at some point).
Of course he has struggled the last couple of times out, but I think those were just sub-par games. He's not walking the ballpark so I think he'll get out of it soon.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2019 8:25:04 GMT -5
I feel like Houck has mixed in just enough poor starts to skew his overall numbers and dim his prospect shine. He's been really solid in his last three starts: 19IP 15H 5ER 4BB 25K He’s getting a few more whiffs than last year and he’s significantly cut his walk rate. Hoping he’s working out how to command and utilize the 4FB to go with the 2FB and SL. Still think he’d benefit from getting the CH in order or maybe even trying a SF, though I’m not sure how his arm angle would affect SF movement. His low-3/4 isn’t great for 4FB rise, and it makes sense he scrapped the CB cuz that’s not a great pitch unless it’s over-the-top. Arm slot works awful well with the SL though. I mean, they have the *perfect* mirror image model for him in Sale: 2/4, SL, CH, all low-3/4. Clearly it works, as long as he can command. Still appreciate his trying to use spin data to maximize his repertoire though. Tonight was a nice step. As I tweeted: the splits are very, very deep. He could get RHB in the majors out tomorrow with his slider. Well, he threw 110 pitches, so not tomorrow, but you get what I mean. Good to hear that the change was working against lefties. He's going to need to develop that a lot. It really benefits the Red Sox if teams continue to load lineups with LHB against him - over 60% of the batters he's faced have been left-handed.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 7, 2019 10:49:27 GMT -5
Have heard from scouts this year that still see a reliever.
That third pitch is going to be huge for him on whether he can pitch to lefties. If he winds up being in Portland longer than seems necessary, that's probably why.
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Post by soxfan511 on Jun 7, 2019 10:59:28 GMT -5
Have heard from scouts this year that still see a reliever. That third pitch is going to be huge for him on whether he can pitch to lefties. If he winds up being in Portland longer than seems necessary, that's probably why. Id be fine with him developing into an elite closer with a high 90s fastball and wipeout slider
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