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9/18-9/20 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by soxfan06 on Sept 18, 2017 22:40:29 GMT -5
Also, couple things.
Carson Smith is good. Pen could be really good in the playoffs with Smith-Reed-Kimbrel.
Tzu Wei-Lin should be and should have been getting all the playing time at 2nd base. He may not be great, but he is much better than Brock Holt. That was one of the best ABs of the year to earn that walk.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 18, 2017 22:42:54 GMT -5
Also, couple things. Carson Smith is good. Pen could be really good in the playoffs with Smith-Reed-Kimbrel. Tzu Wei-Lin should be and should have been getting all the playing time at 2nd base. He may not be great, but he is much better than Brock Holt. That was one of the best ABs of the year to earn that walk. Hard to complain about Holt tonight. 2-2 with a double, 2 RBIs and 2 runs.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 18, 2017 22:44:07 GMT -5
magic number is 10
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 18, 2017 22:44:30 GMT -5
I like the schedule the rest of the way. The O's are done, the Reds suck and so do the Jays. Let's Buck the Orioles over the next two games and gain a game on the MFY. I mean the Twinkies can win one against the MFY, right?
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Post by soxfan06 on Sept 18, 2017 22:46:03 GMT -5
Also, couple things. Carson Smith is good. Pen could be really good in the playoffs with Smith-Reed-Kimbrel. Tzu Wei-Lin should be and should have been getting all the playing time at 2nd base. He may not be great, but he is much better than Brock Holt. That was one of the best ABs of the year to earn that walk. Hard to complain about Holt tonight. 2-2 with a double, 2 RBIs and 2 runs. Sure, but I'm not talking about 1 game sample sizes. Holt isn't very good. One game, albeit it a very good one, and one that definitely helped us win this game, doesn't change that. But sure, Holt deserves props for his big hit in the 5th tonight.
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Post by geostorm on Sept 18, 2017 22:50:20 GMT -5
Huge, huge win. Especially after that ugly Fister start. 3 up with 12 to play. If we win just 6, the Yanks have to win 75% of their games. ...you could also say a brief 3 game skid, and a 3 game win streak by NYY, makes it a dogfight to the end ...that being said, 6 of those 12 line up as Pomeranz/Sale starts, if needed, though mindful they've both logged a lot of innings, relatively speaking... ...and perhaps by that last 4 game series v Houston, Stros have nothing to play for, for all or part of that series. So there's that. If Carson Smith is starting to knock the rust off, and has some capacity left, RoS, stating the obvious, but, boy, that's a nice late season BP addition for the playoffs....that's my big take away (aside from this team against showing "sack"!)
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Post by soxfan06 on Sept 18, 2017 22:57:28 GMT -5
Wow, I didn't realize Pablo Sandoval had a higher fWAR with the Red Sox this year than Hanley Ramirez does.
Boy....
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 18, 2017 23:09:06 GMT -5
Wow, I didn't realize Pablo Sandoval had a higher fWAR with the Red Sox this year than Hanley Ramirez does. Boy.... Only because he played 1/4 of the games Hanley did.
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Post by soxfan06 on Sept 18, 2017 23:18:23 GMT -5
Wow, I didn't realize Pablo Sandoval had a higher fWAR with the Red Sox this year than Hanley Ramirez does. Boy.... Only because he played 1/4 of the games Hanley did. True. No one will produce as little WAR per dollar paid in the next decade as Sandoval. But also demostrates how a guy who is supposed to be the DH, isn't doing much to help us.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 18, 2017 23:19:10 GMT -5
What a gutsy win that was, especially against Buck Showalter's Orioles, when they really, really needed it.
The extra inning wins are the difference in the division race at the moment. Every time the Red Sox come close to going into what I think of as the danger zone (less than 3 games ahead) where they are vulnerable to be overtaken by the Yankees the Red Sox have managed to come up with victories they have no business getting.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 18, 2017 23:29:33 GMT -5
So many storylines going on right now.
Fister is taking the #3 starter role and flushing it, and I say that as gently as possible because of how big he came up when the Red Sox really needed it, particularly the shutdown victory against NY when they lost 3 of 4.
At this point Porcello is more likely to keep you in the game than Fister is because Fister will put you in a hole that you have to hope isn't too deep and you have to hope he finds it in the 2nd because if he does he can go on cruise control. Otherwise you face a major uphill battle, which is something you don't want to risk in the playoffs.
So then that begs the question can Price be the #3 starter with Porcello as #4? If so that means Fister doesn't make the post-season roster because he's a terrible reliever with his tendency to struggle right away and that opens up space for both Maddox and Smith.
Smith was very impressive tonight (Pedro45forever - you might be correct after all), and perhaps he can take on a high leverage role. Hopefully Workman gets it together, which would also help.
There had been some times where it's obvious Brentz could have helped the team, but I also can't help but wonder what it would have taken to get Daniel Nava back. The Red Sox could really use a LH pinch-hitter off the bench. They just don't have one other than possibly Holt, and Holt has been the type of guy you pinch-hit for.
While Holt had a nice game, Lin really put on a professional AB tonight which set up the GW hit from Benintendi. Maybe Lin can snag a backup IF spot over Holt?
I didn't agree with Farrell pinch-hitting for Marrero with Hanley. Hanley is rusty as can be, and Marrero actually stands a chance against lefties and was the best defensive 2b they had at that point. I would have probably used Hanley as the DH to pinch-hit for Davis who is totally useless against righties and an even worse option than Hanley. Actually I would have used Brentz, but well never mind.
Farrell did do a good job with his bullpen however. He had Kimbrel positioned to hold the tie in the 9th and be available for the 10th if they had the lead, but he used Barnes with the Orioles weakest spots in the lineup up and had Smith ready to pitch to the meat of their order.
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 18, 2017 23:49:56 GMT -5
A 14-3 record in extra innings points to a pretty strong bull pen. Also it is becoming apparent that Benni is an strong MVP candidate for this team. Such a natural hitter with a sweet swing.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 19, 2017 3:19:28 GMT -5
OK, after tonight, you all have to STFU about this team having no heart for the rest of the season. On August 11, the Sox were 14-10 in games won after the other team had established a 75% Win Probability, and 1-2 in games won after the eventual loser had reached 90%. They had just lost the second of those, the game where they went into the bottom of the 8th in NY leading 3-0 and Reed and Kelly melted down. Since then, they are 8-0 in 75% games including 6-0 in 90% games. It started two nights later with the Devers / Chapman game (where they were down to .090). Then you have: 8/16 vs the Cardinals; down 4-0 right away and still trailing 4-2 at the end of the 8th (.082); X leads off the 9th with a HR and Mookie doubles in 2 with 2 outs. 8/18 vs. the Yankees; after blowing .876 they trail 6-3 in the 7th with the bases full of Yankees and 1 out (.076); Reed shuts them down and they score 4 runs off of Green and Kahnle in the bottom, the big hit being Moreland's 2-out bases-loaded grounder up the middle. 9/5 vs. Toronto; down to .070 in the top of the 9th when Kimbrel puts 2 guys on with 1 out; Betts runs and hits and they win in 19. 9/15 in Tampa; down to .027 when Barnes gave up the homer to Ramos that made it 5-2 in the 8th; they win in 15. Tonight; down to .048 when they trailed 5-0 in the 3rd and the O's had the bases full with 1 out; they win in 11. So the first 3 came in a span of 5 games (including the last 2 back-to-back) and the last 2 in a span of 4 games. Here's what's really ridiculous: on the season they have 12 wins after falling below .170, and 8 of them have been in extras. (They have 5 such losses, only 1 in extras.) Besides the 4 in this stretch: 5/17 at StL, down to .045 in the 6th, won in 13 6/12 vs Phi, down to .168 in the 2nd, won in 11 6/30 at Tor, down to .140 in the 4th, won in 11 7/18 vs Tor, down to .230 in the 5th and .148 in the 11th, won in 15 So this was the 5th time they trailed early and won in extras -- the 3rd time on the road. Overall, they're 9-2 in extra innings after being below / above 75%, and 5-1 in extras in games that neither team ever established an edge in. As a point of comparison, last year the Sox finished 23-21 in 75% games and were 4-7 in 90% games. Repeat: 6 comebacks from below a 10% chance of winning in their last 34 games, versus 4 in 162 last year. And the 8/1 Vazquez walk-off game was .106. That's 7 remarkable victories in 7 weeks. The team may not have collectively filled Papi's HR impact, but they are handling the clutch part really, really well. They were 57-49 on July 30. Win tomorrow and they'll be 30-15 since.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 19, 2017 6:44:39 GMT -5
The Sox have a good chance to sweep now that they've stolen a awesome game one victory.
I feel like the Sox are a week away from wrapping up the division, the Yankees won't be winning for forever. The Sox will be playing one of the worst teams in the league in the Reds this weekend. I think that the magic number could be down to 4 or 5 after that series.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 19, 2017 7:50:53 GMT -5
Wow, I didn't realize Pablo Sandoval had a higher fWAR with the Red Sox this year than Hanley Ramirez does. Boy.... Only because he played 1/4 of the games Hanley did. Still have to get rid of Hanley and sign a big bat, preferably Martinez.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 19, 2017 8:45:39 GMT -5
OK, after tonight, you all have to STFU about this team having no heart for the rest of the season. On August 11, the Sox were 14-10 in games won after the other team had established a 75% Win Probability, and 1-2 in games won after the eventual loser had reached 90%. They had just lost the second of those, the game where they went into the bottom of the 8th in NY leading 3-0 and Reed and Kelly melted down. Since then, they are 8-0 in 75% games including 6-0 in 90% games. Wait, I don't quite follow this. Doesn't the other team get above a 75% (and also 90%) win expectancy in every game the Red Sox lose?
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 19, 2017 9:11:25 GMT -5
On August 11, the Sox were 14-10 in games won after the other team had established a 75% Win Probability, and 1-2 in games won after the eventual loser had reached 90%. They had just lost the second of those, the game where they went into the bottom of the 8th in NY leading 3-0 and Reed and Kelly melted down. Since then, they are 8-0 in 75% games including 6-0 in 90% games. Wait, I don't quite follow this. Doesn't the other team get above a 75% (and also 90%) win expectancy in every game the Red Sox lose? Yeah, it's confusing. I usually add the following when I do this sort of breakdown .... The Sox are 21-14 starting August 13. They have 6 wins after the other team established a 90% Win Probability or better, so we've won 6 out of 20 games, 30%, of the games where it was 0-10%. On the season, it's 7 comebacks and 64 losses, so they've come back 10% of the time when it was 0-10% -- still good. Our opponents on the season have 2 wins after we got to 90%. Since we have 87 wins, that's 2/89 = 2% after their Win Probability bottomed in the 0 to 10 range. For the opponents getting to 75%, we have 22 wins and 64 losses, so that's 26% after being 0-25% -- very similar to the 90/10 success ratio. After we've gotten to 75%, we have 87 wins and 10 losses, so we have won 90% of the time that our WP has hit 75% or better. Otherwise known as "Craig Kimbrel and friends." Now, technically, you'd exclude games where the WP was never above 75% or 90% until a walk-off hit, because there was no chance for the other team to come back. If I were publishing this, I'd look for those, but they're quite rare.
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Post by p23w on Sept 19, 2017 11:02:24 GMT -5
Methinks winning the division is both imperative and tenuous. Sale and Porcello are #2 and #3 in MLB with regard to pitchers thrown. They are both approaching 3300 (which was the meltdown point for Pedro). Verlander is #1 at 3322, but he has thrown more pitches than this In 6 other seasons. FWIW, the most pitches thrown in a season by a Red Sox pitcher (since MLB started keeping this stat in 2000) is John Lackey with 3598. Both Clemens and Shilling exceeded this number. while pitching for other teams. I'm pretty sure Clemens did also while pitching for the Sox before 1998. Point being both Sale (3431) and Porcello (3410) are rapidly approaching their career high pitch counts (both set last year). And if memory serves me both had less than stellar starts at the end of their seasons. BTW this also applied to Price who threw over 3400 pitches last year. By my reckoning both Porcello and Sale need to be rested as best as can be managed should the Sox face Houston (or Cleveland) in the post season. Hopefully this will not apply for Price or Fister, who can say with respect to Pomeranz or ERod. I still regret managements' decision not to sign Hill. Still, I have hope that this team can advance in the playoffs, unlike last years debacle.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 19, 2017 11:11:23 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 19, 2017 11:59:42 GMT -5
Bring back Brian Johnson. They also have Velazquez rotting out in the bullpen.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 19, 2017 12:50:17 GMT -5
Depending on how the rotation ends up falling, Ideally I'd give each Sale, Porcello, and Pomeranz a spring training type of start. Once through the order to get work in and stay sharp. If I need to tweak the ordering I'd throw Velazquez to get everyone else on a rest they are comfortable with. Bring back Brian Johnson. They also have Velazquez rotting out in the bullpen. Johnson just got removed from the AFL roster and we don't know why. It's really hard to presume that he'd be an option.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 19, 2017 13:09:32 GMT -5
Depending on how the rotation ends up falling, Ideally I'd give each Sale, Porcello, and Pomeranz a spring training type of start. Once through the order to get work in and stay sharp. If I need to tweak the ordering I'd throw Velazquez to get everyone else on a rest they are comfortable with. Bring back Brian Johnson. They also have Velazquez rotting out in the bullpen. Johnson just got removed from the AFL roster and we don't know why. It's really hard to presume that he'd be an option. I didn't really think he would be, but it was more of a shot at why he's not with the team now.
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Post by zil on Sept 19, 2017 15:09:16 GMT -5
Glad the Sox won. But even as a West Coast fan, I'm getting tired of all the extra innings games. Also can someone explain the 3-man outfield hug for the win-dance-repeat mode? I think they do the hug when everyone in the outfield had a pretty good game. All of them had at least one huge hit and JBJ threw the guy out at second. It might be an extra innings thing too. Like "we're all exhausted, but we made it."
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 19, 2017 17:02:38 GMT -5
Lineup out. Pedrioa out and expected to be back tomorrow.
Sam Travis in at DH versus a RHP. I think we are seeing Travis on the playoff roster over Young. Young actually has hit RHP recently and he's not starting tonight.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 19, 2017 18:02:24 GMT -5
Lineup out. Pedrioa out and expected to be back tomorrow. Sam Travis in at DH versus a RHP. I think we are seeing Travis on the playoff roster over Young. Young actually has hit RHP recently and he's not starting tonight. Really. that would be something, from my lowly perspective. JF doesn't seem like he would want veterans out of the mix. Let's get the win tonight. We got the pitching matchup advantages the next 2 nights. Need to take care of business.
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