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9/28-10/1 Red Sox vs. Astros Series Thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 28, 2017 22:41:56 GMT -5
Beep ... Beep ... Beep ... Beep ... Beep ... Beep ........ HAHAHA>Good one. I don't consider it backing in not when the season is 162 games. Sox just went 8-1 on the road, before this. Oh I get it. Thanks. Winning the division in this scenario is the bottom line, but it is a lot more fun to watch them party then just play an exhibition game. Let them play an exhibition game on Saturday.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 28, 2017 23:11:19 GMT -5
The issue is that I described poorly is the dropoff beyond the top 2 in the rotation which is an issue in the post-season unless you don't think it is because you've very satisfied with the fine work that they've gotten from Porcello and Fister and E-Rod this season, although to be fair to E-Rod, he had a number of starts where his knee wasn't right that messed up what looked like at the beginning to be a breakout season. I guess it's a good thing that, in the playoffs, your #1 and #2 pitchers can pitch almost twice as much of a team's innings as they would in the regular season. Back end of the bullpen also pitches disproportionately more innings. Yeah, sheesh, think about what percentage of innings will be pitched by Sale, Pomeranz, Price, and Kimbrel in a 5- or 7-game series, not to mention the rest of the Sox' deep bullpen. (Remember KC '15?) Then ask yourself how you'd feel about facing that if you were the opposition. Anyway, Red Sox playing great ball - 15-6 in their last 21!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 29, 2017 0:33:55 GMT -5
If Tampa loses tonight, then the Sox at the very least are playing a play in game for the division. Go Rays bullpen! I meant to say "if New York loses tonight." I think everyone knew what I meant. My brain was thinking backwards there. In other words, brain fart.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2017 1:11:58 GMT -5
I guess it's a good thing that, in the playoffs, your #1 and #2 pitchers can pitch almost twice as much of a team's innings as they would in the regular season. Back end of the bullpen also pitches disproportionately more innings. Yeah, sheesh, think about what percentage of innings will be pitched by Sale, Pomeranz, Price, and Kimbrel in a 5- or 7-game series, not to mention the rest of the Sox' deep bullpen. (Remember KC '15?) Then ask yourself how you'd feel about facing that if you were the opposition.Anyway, Red Sox playing great ball - 15-6 in their last 21! I guess it depends on how which Sale and Pomeranz show up. Is it the Sale who the Orioles had no chance with? Or is it the guy who just gave up 4 homers and has been so-so for the past couple of months? Is it the Pomeranz whose velocity is down a good amount and got whacked around last time or is it the Pomeranz of mid-year who was very consistently good? If I were Houston I'd feel good about my starting pitching depth advantage, and my superior and deep offense, but I'd be nervous about my bullpen. If I were Cleveland I'd say wonder how Boston feels about facing a lot of Kluber and Carrasco with Allen, Miller, Shaw, plus others in my deep pen with my superior lineup. Hey anything can happen. This Red Sox team is quite ballsy, but now they're going to be playing the iron of the league instead of the healthy dose of O's, A's, Jays, Rays, and Reds. They're going to have to play their best ball and they're going to need players nursing impactful injuries to step up, which is tough to expect. Pedroia, Nunez, and Betts are key components of their offense, and each have injuries which could hamper them. Bogaerts might finally be coming around after dealing with his injuries and Hanley hasn't been able to sustain any hot streaks at all with his shoulder injuries as a primary reason. The Red Sox are kind of at a disadvantage here, and likewise, not being able to plug Price into the rotation takes away a top flight starter, although he can be an asset in the pen, but if their 3/4 starter gets rocked early and puts them in a 3 or 4 run hole, it could be too late. Like they say, we'll see what happens when they play. I wouldn't expect the Sox to win and if they don't it won't be because they underachieved (last year's team did). I see this team as the little engine that could. I think they'll hang in for as long as they can.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2017 1:13:15 GMT -5
I meant to say "if New York loses tonight." I think everyone knew what I meant. My brain was thinking backwards there. In other words, brain fart. My "Go Rays bullpen" had nothing to do with your comment. Hope you didn't think that it did! I was just excited about the Rays finally exploding against the Yankees and the prospect of the Sox being in control of their own destiny, not realizing the Yankees have an afternoon matinee first.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 29, 2017 3:26:14 GMT -5
I meant to say "if New York loses tonight." I think everyone knew what I meant. My brain was thinking backwards there. In other words, brain fart. My "Go Rays bullpen" had nothing to do with your comment. Hope you didn't think that it did! I was just excited about the Rays finally exploding against the Yankees and the prospect of the Sox being in control of their own destiny, not realizing the Yankees have an afternoon matinee first. I know your comment had nothing to do with mine. I just felt the need to correct it because it was bugging the crap out of me. Lol
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 29, 2017 4:55:01 GMT -5
The Sox need Sale to be the real Sale this postseason, all throughout the postseason. Redsoxchamps is right. Anything beyond Pomeranz is really just Russian Roulette.
I still like the Sox chances to go to the world series, but they're going to have to probably face two 100 win teams in the Astros and Indians to get there. I've never seen harder opponents the Sox had to get by in order to get to a world series before. Usually it's just one juggernaut in the playoffs that you had to get by.
I scratched my head at why Eduardo Rodriguez struggled so badly yesterday. I don't even think it had much to do with Eduardo.
The top 4 of the Astros order is just unstoppable. The run, they have a extremely good hit tool, they hit for power. You basically have 4 middle of the order bats all in a row there. Talk about murderers row. Brian McCann was their number 9 hitter last night. Think about how good that is.
The guy I wanted to trade for in Gurriel at the deadline for Porcello would be the Sox cleanup hitter right now, and he's batting 7th for them last night.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 29, 2017 7:16:15 GMT -5
We’re on a huge pitching cold streak. It feels like we’re sitting here running out of games as we wait for the pendulum to swing back in our direction. Hopefully it does in the next few days.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 29, 2017 7:26:52 GMT -5
I'm not worried at all. I haven't been all year. Some of you were so certain the division wasn't winnable and that they'd blow the wild card. You keep pounding your chest about how right you are that the Red Sox aren't a 120 win team. Boo hoo, they only are winning the division again. I almost wish 2004 never happened because Red Sox fans have become so spoiled. At least before 2004, we naively believed that they would always win, despite knowing that they would blow it. Now, anything less than a perfect season isn't good enough. Finishing ahead of the Yankees was always a great season before. Be thankful for what the Red Sox have done this year. I am, especially for all the comeback wins and extra inning wins. No matter what happens in the playoffs, this has been a great season. There have been tons of injuries this year. With better luck on that front, they would have easily won 100 games.
It's a 162 game season. A player has contributed a lot more than what he did in his last game or two.
The only thing I'm mad about is Bryce Brentz.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 29, 2017 8:36:12 GMT -5
I guess it's a good thing that, in the playoffs, your #1 and #2 pitchers can pitch almost twice as much of a team's innings as they would in the regular season. Back end of the bullpen also pitches disproportionately more innings. Yeah, sheesh, think about what percentage of innings will be pitched by Sale, Pomeranz, Price, and Kimbrel in a 5- or 7-game series, not to mention the rest of the Sox' deep bullpen. (Remember KC '15?) Then ask yourself how you'd feel about facing that if you were the opposition. Anyway, Red Sox playing great ball - 15-6 in their last 21! Remember those pitchers will be managed in a farrellian manner
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 29, 2017 8:44:34 GMT -5
Carlos Correa is good at baseball.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 29, 2017 8:45:16 GMT -5
Yeah, sheesh, think about what percentage of innings will be pitched by Sale, Pomeranz, Price, and Kimbrel in a 5- or 7-game series, not to mention the rest of the Sox' deep bullpen. (Remember KC '15?) Then ask yourself how you'd feel about facing that if you were the opposition. Anyway, Red Sox playing great ball - 15-6 in their last 21! Remember those pitchers will be managed in a farrellian manner You mean like Boyer and Abad in a must win 5-2 game? That would never happen.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 29, 2017 8:50:51 GMT -5
The top-to-bottom averageness of the Red Sox lineup is really something. Starters at every position but 3B have a wRC+ between 90 and 106.
Betts 106 Benintendi 104 Pedroia 103 Moreland 96 Vazquez 96 Bogaerts 95 Ramirez 93 Bradley Jr. 90
Less than 32% of all qualifying players are within that range. If you include Devers, at 112, then every Sox starter is in a range that includes 42% of all qualifying players. That has to be super improbable.
(Fun fact: the worst wRC+ in the majors (60) belongs to Rougned Odor, who has 30 home runs.)
(Fun fact #2: every Astros starter is at 108 or above.)
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 29, 2017 9:23:35 GMT -5
Yeah, sheesh, think about what percentage of innings will be pitched by Sale, Pomeranz, Price, and Kimbrel in a 5- or 7-game series, not to mention the rest of the Sox' deep bullpen. (Remember KC '15?) Then ask yourself how you'd feel about facing that if you were the opposition. Anyway, Red Sox playing great ball - 15-6 in their last 21! Remember those pitchers will be managed in a farrellian manner This is a big concern for me - we don't have an offense that can dig us out of big holes (except for rare occurrences). Farrell tends to have a slow hook and lightning strikes before he even has someone warming up. Somehow he has to keep his deep, effective bullpen in mind and act more quickly if it looks like one of the starters just doesn't have it. Not saying it is easy, but it would help.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 29, 2017 9:34:02 GMT -5
I am moderately worried about Farrell's hook being slow in the playoffs - whoever gets the 3rd and 4th spots in the rotation should be kept to twice through the order (unless they're in a situation where the team builds up a big lead early and the starter can rest the bullpen some). Given the frequent days off though, I'm less worried about the relievers he goes to in close games. The frequent days off should allow him to use Price, Reed, and Kimbrel as he prefers.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 29, 2017 9:45:37 GMT -5
Totally agreed. The leash has to be short for the 3 and 4 guys in the rotation. With any luck one of them will hold the other team to like 2 runs in 4-5 innings. I’d take that and run based on our recent troubles pitching. Pretty good chance that between one of the two games with our 3 and 4 guys, we get blown out.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2017 10:10:51 GMT -5
I am moderately worried about Farrell's hook being slow in the playoffs - whoever gets the 3rd and 4th spots in the rotation should be kept to twice through the order (unless they're in a situation where the team builds up a big lead early and the starter can rest the bullpen some). Given the frequent days off though, I'm less worried about the relievers he goes to in close games. The frequent days off should allow him to use Price, Reed, and Kimbrel as he prefers. The Sox rotation ranked 5th in MLB in ERA but 8th in Win Probability Added, and hence 20th in FanGraphs reasonably accurate measurement of Clutch. That's JF still having a slow hook, but it wasn't nearly as bad as last year. With the bullpen he has, I expect him to be a lot quicker in the postseason. The bullpen ranks second in ERA- to the Indians but first in WPA by a wide margin, and 7th in Clutch. He's handled it quite well, and so much better than last year (when he was catastrophically bad) that there's almost zero question in my mind that they worked on it with him over the winter. Last winter I said that the best managerial choice would be to keep JF and teach him how to handle a pitching staff, if that were possible. And I was agnostic about the chances of that. But that's what they've done. JF deserves credit for not just the way he handled the pen this year, but for his willingness to listen and learn.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 29, 2017 10:29:08 GMT -5
I am moderately worried about Farrell's hook being slow in the playoffs - whoever gets the 3rd and 4th spots in the rotation should be kept to twice through the order (unless they're in a situation where the team builds up a big lead early and the starter can rest the bullpen some). Given the frequent days off though, I'm less worried about the relievers he goes to in close games. The frequent days off should allow him to use Price, Reed, and Kimbrel as he prefers. The Sox rotation ranked 5th in MLB in ERA but 8th in Win Probability Added, How much of that difference is just Porcello's usage? He has a 10.12 ERA in the 7th inning. But despite that, he's faced more batters a third time through the order than Chris Sale has. Hell, he's faced 31 batters a fourth time through!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2017 11:24:30 GMT -5
The Sox rotation ranked 5th in MLB in ERA but 8th in Win Probability Added, How much of that difference is just Porcello's usage? He has a 10.12 ERA in the 7th inning. But despite that, he's faced more batters a third time through the order than Chris Sale has. Hell, he's faced 31 batters a fourth time through! Again, FG's Clutch metric isn't perfectly accurate, but the big negative drain is Fister in his first 7 starts. Porcello is actually second best, at neutral. Price, Rodriguez, and Sale are all somewhat negative. Pomeranz is hugely positive, and of course, he had very quick hooks early in the season.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 29, 2017 12:16:39 GMT -5
Last winter I said that the best managerial choice would be to keep JF and teach him how to handle a pitching staff, if that were possible. And I was agnostic about the chances of that. But that's what they've done. JF deserves credit for not just the way he handled the pen this year, but for his willingness to listen and learn.
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Post by p23w on Sept 29, 2017 13:05:05 GMT -5
Lots of interesting match-ups, motivations and second guessing about to take place. 1) Does Fister get to prove to Hinch and the Astro's management that they gave up on him too soon (and subsequently gave his spot to Morton)? 2) Will Girardi start Severino against the Twins? And if not Severino, whom? 3) Will Roberts give the #3 or #4 start to Rich Hill? 4) Can Verlander still top 100mph in the post season? 5) Will Farrell or Francona have more success with the Quick hook in the post season. 6) Can Price reverse him horrible post season performances from years past? This should be his best opportunity to do so. 7) Who will have the most challenging managerial decisions to make in both the AL an Nl playoffs? And the list goes on. BTW, you can toss nearly all those season stats out the window when you "analyze" what transpires in the next 3 weeks. The only edge will go to those who don't use (or need) Apple watches.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 29, 2017 13:13:29 GMT -5
And...will Tanaka no-hit the Jays today, followed by a win tonight by the good guys and a celebration?
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Post by m1keyboots on Sept 29, 2017 13:27:45 GMT -5
I am moderately worried about Farrell's hook being slow in the playoffs - whoever gets the 3rd and 4th spots in the rotation should be kept to twice through the order (unless they're in a situation where the team builds up a big lead early and the starter can rest the bullpen some). Given the frequent days off though, I'm less worried about the relievers he goes to in close games. The frequent days off should allow him to use Price, Reed, and Kimbrel as he prefers. Being a Farrell fan is hard these days. Im not being sarcastic. I'd like to believe he knows the pitchers current and possibly future output needs, and this was why along with needing those games he felt like he should leave guys like Erod, and Drew a little too long. I as much as anybody dont like seeing Boyer in the 3rd inning. However, I also wouldn't want for JF to pull the plug after a couple Hrs, and walks. I know that sounds selfish, but it seems beyond me that he and Willis were sitting there watching starters getting lit up thinking things like "well this is going well". Ive been particularly impressed with the way he's handled games into the extras, a lot of those games FELT like must wins. Having said all that it would be nice if there were a couple more good starts to end the season wouldn't it?
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Post by Guidas on Sept 29, 2017 14:33:20 GMT -5
I'm not worried at all. I haven't been all year. Some of you were so certain the division wasn't winnable and that they'd blow the wild card. You keep pounding your chest about how right you are that the Red Sox aren't a 120 win team. Boo hoo, they only are winning the division again. I almost wish 2004 never happened because Red Sox fans have become so spoiled. At least before 2004, we naively believed that they would always win, despite knowing that they would blow it. Now, anything less than a perfect season isn't good enough. Finishing ahead of the Yankees was always a great season before. Be thankful for what the Red Sox have done this year. I am, especially for all the comeback wins and extra inning wins. No matter what happens in the playoffs, this has been a great season. There have been tons of injuries this year. With better luck on that front, they would have easily won 100 games. It's a 162 game season. A player has contributed a lot more than what he did in his last game or two. The only thing I'm mad about is Bryce Brentz.Well, that and the policy of running into a ridiculous number of outs because the philosophy is all about the aggressiveness and not about the evidence. I was too damaged in my early youth by 1978, and it was all re-inflicted in 2011, so I will never take a division or wild card for granted. I think Tom Brady's attitude that was displayed at the Super Bowl last year yelling at his guys to get off the field until the review is in, even though confetti was falling, is pretty close to my default. It is never over and decided until it is truly over. Or as one of my early mentors said, "Nothing is real until the check clears the bank, so don't spend a dime until it does." All that said, I see this team with the jaded eyes of a true but realistic fan who has been able to watch about 150 games this year in some capacity. When everyone of the starting 9 is on their game and healthy they are as good as any team in the tournament. But that's not baseball or life, so I am cautiously pessimistic. I think that, if they can get Sale and Pomeranz some rest, this could be a very dangerous team in a short series. However - and much of this may be just my Red Sox fan PTSD - Cleveland and Houston look to be about a full half step above this team. True, in the playoffs the best teams don't always win. However, when it comes to match-ups, I actually think that the worst AL team the Sox could face in a 7-game series would be NYY. And I really hate to say that.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 29, 2017 14:49:01 GMT -5
It is Severino vs. Porcello Mon nite in the Bronx.
E-Rod on Tues vs Twins
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