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Post by jimed14 on Jan 2, 2018 13:30:07 GMT -5
I think some people are suffering from filling an absence of information in with whatever creeps into their mind.
Nothing has really changed in the last several weeks. Until JDM signs somewhere or Machado actually is traded which I doubt, still nothing will have changed. There is no reason to start shifting your thinking to something much more radical because it doesn't look like Boras is going to cooperate with anything. Just have to be patient.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 2, 2018 13:40:06 GMT -5
That doesn't mean he'll be worth his contract if he's given 10/$400M. You have no way of knowing that. I'm not comparing Xander to Machado as much as I'm comparing Machado to Machado's free agent contract. Xander's best year offensively wasn't in 2017 either. He had a 111 in 2015 and a 115 in 2016. Machado has exceeded those wRC+ in a grand total of 2 seasons. I'm not saying that Machado isn't a great player. He is. But there's just no way in hell that anyone can know that he'll be worth his next contract. If anyone knows that is a fact then he probably didn't get enough. He's not anywhere close to ARod. Just a few points to consider: 1) Machado's two best seasons of 130 and 135 wRC+ are a great deal better than any season Bogaerts has ever had, so let's be clear on that. Those were top 30 and top 20 finishes by those metrics, whereas Bogaerts' finishes in his best two seasons were top 65. As I understand it at least, because of the way wRC+ works, you're looking at something of a bell curve as the number gets better, so it's not just "a difference of 20 points" or something. I found your explanation on wRC+ a little confusing so I just wanted to clarify: the difference in wRC+ between two players is a % above or below league average and not a bell curve. The ranking of players based on wRC+ would be a similar to a population bell curve as the majority of players are grouped toward the middle and those with very high or low wRC+ are more sparse (also, it wouldn't be exactly a bell curve as there is no perfect balance and there will likely be more outliers toward the top end than the bottom end - as those at the bottom end would be washed out or not make PA requirements I would anticipate for this type of ranking system) So Machado at 135 wRC+ would be 35% better than league average as a hitter and 17.4% better than Bogaerts at 17.4% One thing which I think has been missed in this debate is your reference toward the SS renaissance. Due to the greater supply of SS than usual I believe the contracts for Machado and Bogaerts will both be lower than widely anticipated. (Zack Cozart just put up a 5 fWAR year, wasn't given a qualifying offer and received a 3 year contract which he can earn with a single year like his 2017) |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 2, 2018 13:41:52 GMT -5
I think he'll be worth closer to the mega contract than anyone on this team currently. That probably includes Mookie. He's not A-Rod, but he is probably the closest thing to A-Rod this sport has seen, if he plays short stop. As Chris just mentioned, there is probably a increase in overall batting value when he moves to short stop full time. There just isn't many if any short stops in baseball with Manny's ceiling at the short stop position. No one on this team currently is set to make anywhere close to Machado. Why are you comparing them and then saying "Machado will be worth his contract unlike anyone on the Red Sox?" I mean if we want to actually make a valid comparison on player values and contracts, how about this? What would you rather have? Machado at 10 years/$400 million or Xander at 7 years/$140 million? Boras just demanded 200 million in a player who can't play defense in J.D. Martinez. You think he's going to take that from Xander? |
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 2, 2018 13:43:28 GMT -5
No one on this team currently is set to make anywhere close to Machado. Why are you comparing them and then saying "Machado will be worth his contract unlike anyone on the Red Sox?" I mean if we want to actually make a valid comparison on player values and contracts, how about this? What would you rather have? Machado at 10 years/$400 million or Xander at 7 years/$140 million? Boras just demanded 200 million in a player who can't play defense in J.D. Martinez. You think he's going to take that from Xander? I have no idea what Xander is going to end up signing for, Boras or not. Neither do you. So declaring him a player who won't be worth his contract is absurd at this point in time. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 2, 2018 13:44:08 GMT -5
I think he'll be worth closer to the mega contract than anyone on this team currently. That probably includes Mookie. He's not A-Rod, but he is probably the closest thing to A-Rod this sport has seen, if he plays short stop. As Chris just mentioned, there is probably a increase in overall batting value when he moves to short stop full time. There just isn't many if any short stops in baseball with Manny's ceiling at the short stop position. No one on this team currently is set to make anywhere close to Machado. Why are you comparing them and then saying "Machado will be worth his contract unlike anyone on the Red Sox?" *Cough* Mookie Betts *Cough* Give or take one year. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 2, 2018 13:46:35 GMT -5
Boras just demanded 200 million in a player who can't play defense in J.D. Martinez. You think he's going to take that from Xander? I have no idea what Xander is going to end up signing for, Boras or not. Neither do you. So declaring him a player who won't be worth his contract is absurd at this point in time. I'm sure Boras will be reasonable in his demands, that would be very Boras like of him to do that. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 2, 2018 13:47:05 GMT -5
No one on this team currently is set to make anywhere close to Machado. Why are you comparing them and then saying "Machado will be worth his contract unlike anyone on the Red Sox?" *Cough* Mookie Betts *Cough* Give or take one year. You also don't even know that either since you don't know what he'll sign for. My concern with him is that he won't age that well because he has too much value in his defense and baserunning but still be signed into his late 30s. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 2, 2018 13:48:33 GMT -5
*Cough* Mookie Betts *Cough* Give or take one year. You also don't even know that either since you don't know what he'll sign for. My concern with him is that he won't age that well because he has too much value in his defense and baserunning but still be signed into his late 30s. That was originally my concern as well, which is why I'd rather pay Manny to play short stop, which could be the best risk to take at top dollar. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 2, 2018 13:52:42 GMT -5
You also don't even know that either since you don't know what he'll sign for. My concern with him is that he won't age that well because he has too much value in his defense and baserunning but still be signed into his late 30s. That was originally my concern as well, which is why I'd rather pay Manny to play short stop, which could be the best risk to take at top dollar. There is no max contract so you aren't comparing apples to apples unless they signed identical contracts. My hopes are that Mookie and Xander would give the Red Sox a discount. Machado almost assuredly would not given that he has no tie to the Red Sox and he seems to hate the team. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 2, 2018 13:58:15 GMT -5
That was originally my concern as well, which is why I'd rather pay Manny to play short stop, which could be the best risk to take at top dollar. There is no max contract so you aren't comparing apples to apples unless they signed identical contracts. My hopes are that Mookie and Xander would give the Red Sox a discount. Machado almost assuredly would not given that he has no tie to the Red Sox and he seems to hate the team. I wouldn't count on any discounts. The only guy that has seemed to give discounts on this team and has been a total team player is Sale. Especially considering the agent in Boras, when it comes to Xander. My line of thinking is that you're going to pay either way. Minus well pay top dollar for the best value. You don't know the exact numbers of the Machado deal either. If you got him to Boston for a year and offered him the position he wants to play, his feelings might change too. Edit- Mookie is heading into a free agent type of mindset with this year to year thing before probably free agency. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 2, 2018 14:16:33 GMT -5
There is no max contract so you aren't comparing apples to apples unless they signed identical contracts. My hopes are that Mookie and Xander would give the Red Sox a discount. Machado almost assuredly would not given that he has no tie to the Red Sox and he seems to hate the team. I wouldn't count on any discounts. The only guy that has seemed to give discounts on this team and has been a total team player is Sale. Especially considering the agent in Boras, when it comes to Xander. My line of thinking is that you're going to pay either way. Minus well pay top dollar for the best value. You don't know the exact numbers of the Machado deal either. If you got him to Boston for a year and offered him the position he wants to play, his feelings might change too. Edit- Mookie is heading into a free agent type of mindset with this year to year thing before probably free agency. I'm not the one saying that this guy will be worth the contract he gets and that guy won't be. I'm saying we can't even begin to guess. Mookie has always said he doesn't even think about money. I can see him signing a Pedroia-like contract (not dollar amount, but team friendly) because of what he has said in the past. Then again, I could be completely wrong. We have cluttered up this thread enough, I'm bowing out. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 2, 2018 14:19:56 GMT -5
I can’t believe so much time is being spent on talking about Machado. There is basically no chance the Orioles are trading him to the Red Sox.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 2, 2018 14:45:55 GMT -5
I can’t believe so much time is being spent on talking about Machado. There is basically no chance the Orioles are trading him to the Red Sox. Just discussing the rumors and possibilities. Most likely Angelos might not approve a trade either way, but a strong enough package might sway his thinking. They have to trade Machado somewhere at some point. That much I do know. |
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Post by artfuldodger on Jan 2, 2018 17:13:15 GMT -5
What is the more valuable trade chip - 4 years of Eduardo Rodriguez or Jason Groome?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 2, 2018 17:17:05 GMT -5
What is the more valuable trade chip - 4 years of Eduardo Rodriguez or Jason Groome? Rodriguez, for sure. EDIT: Healthy, at least. Right now, teams might want to stay away until he shows the knee is healthy. |
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Post by artfuldodger on Jan 2, 2018 17:21:02 GMT -5
Why do fans seem more comfortable trading Eduardo Rodriguez or 2 years of Bogaerts over Groome?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 2, 2018 17:35:39 GMT -5
The thing is he's not even close to A-Rod. A-Rod was a free agent a year earlier, was one of the best hitters in all of Baseball and played very good D. At Machados age he had already won a batting title, hit over .300 4 times, had an OPS over .900 4 times and an OPS over 1.0 twice. I'd give a young A-Rod 10 years 400 million, not Machado. That's the thing with Machado great young player, but clearly a notch below an A-Rod or a Trout type player. I would also worry about his D, because the minute that starts to decline his value will tank, unless he improves his hitting. A-Rod's D started declining around age 28-29. If I had to pick between Betts or Machado, I take Betts all day long. Both are great defensive players, but I like Betts bat more. Also, I'm fairly certain nobody has brought up Betts vs. Machado, so I'm not sure of your point. Umm, the first two sentences of the post I replied two don't involve Mookie? Say what? |
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Post by jiant2520 on Jan 2, 2018 18:05:57 GMT -5
He is better.
No he is not!
He is, and he is worth more too!
You don't know...
I am right.
No, you're not at all.
See what a slow off-season does.
Can someone text me once the bickering is over?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 2, 2018 19:05:28 GMT -5
Looking at Keith Law top 50 free agent list only 2 of the top 10 have signed, 6 of the top 20, 11 of the top 30 and 16 of the top 50 have signed. At some point a bunch of signings will happen, right?
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Post by jiant2520 on Jan 2, 2018 19:58:07 GMT -5
You'd think soon... once the first couple sign, the flood gates will open up. Most are waiting for one or two pitchers and hitters, most probably have outlines of deals ready to go.
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Post by larrycook on Jan 2, 2018 20:12:24 GMT -5
Maybe teams are being more cautious now and more ready to step away from an overpay.
The longer this period of inactivity lasts, the lower the prices presumably,
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 2, 2018 20:46:30 GMT -5
Heard Bowden talk on the radio a hour ago. His sources said the Sox offer was Jason Groome + Position player (Xander or JBJ) for Machado.
Remember Jim Bowden's sources = Good. Jim Bowden speculation = Bad.
Still no deal, so the Orioles haven't taken it yet, but that's what they reportedly offered. Bowden didn't like talking about it because he doesn't like giving away his sources.
Edit- The offer is/was real. Have no idea where this offer is as it stands today, but this is why it was talked about ad nauseam.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 2, 2018 21:11:45 GMT -5
Heard Bowden talk on the radio a hour ago. His sources said the Sox offer was Jason Groome + Position player (Xander or JBJ) for Machado. Remember Jim Bowden's sources = Good. Jim Bowden speculation = Bad. Still no deal, so the Orioles haven't taken it yet, but that's what they reportedly offered. Bowden didn't like talking about it because he doesn't like giving away his sources. Yeesh. What's the philosophy? Draft Groome so now Espinoza can be dealt? Draft Houck so now Groome can be dealt? Hard to develop top notch starting pitching that way. If I were the Orioles I'd jump on Xander and Groome for 1 year of Machado in a heartbeat. But the Orioles do things.....very differently. |
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Post by Smittyw on Jan 2, 2018 21:13:23 GMT -5
Heard Bowden talk on the radio a hour ago. His sources said the Sox offer was Jason Groome + Position player (Xander or JBJ) for Machado.Remember Jim Bowden's sources = Good. Jim Bowden speculation = Bad. Still no deal, so the Orioles haven't taken it yet, but that's what they reportedly offered. Bowden didn't like talking about it because he doesn't like giving away his sources.   |
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Post by p23w on Jan 2, 2018 21:26:43 GMT -5
Should the RS re-sign Addison Reed?
I don't want this to become a debate about salary. Would rather focus on whether a full year of Reed makes the 2018 RS a better team based on his skill set and experience.
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