|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 12, 2018 19:29:41 GMT -5
No, that's 25-man roster salary. Doesn't include overhead either.
|
|
|
Post by Addam603 on Jan 12, 2018 19:36:41 GMT -5
Mookie is asking 10.5 Million and the Red Sox offered 7.5 Million.
1) That’s less than Pomeranz and scarcely more than Bogaerts. Mookie is a better player than both.
2) I understand it’s a business, but Mookie is clearly worth 10.5 Million. Why not pay him that?
3) Shouldn’t we be worried about this turning into another Jon Lester lowball fiasco?
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 12, 2018 19:43:07 GMT -5
You are welcome to worry about that, some of us will defer. With the Bryant deal made public,the team may choose to revisit their offer. They're not very far apart.
|
|
|
Post by swingingbunt on Jan 12, 2018 20:05:45 GMT -5
Mookie is asking 10.5 Million and the Red Sox offered 7.5 Million. 1) That’s less than Pomeranz and scarcely more than Bogaerts. Mookie is a better player than both. 2) I understand it’s a business, but Mookie is clearly worth 10.5 Million. Why not pay him that? 3) Shouldn’t we be worried about this turning into another Jon Lester lowball fiasco? As to point 1, all three players you referenced are in different parts of the arbitration process. The cornerstone of arbitration is that you can only compare players salaries with similar service time.
|
|
|
Post by swingingbunt on Jan 12, 2018 20:21:14 GMT -5
They would have exchanged numbers with Betts before this was released, but Kris Bryant just got $10.85M, setting a first-year arb record. When Ryan Howard won his record setting case, wasn't part of the reason because he had an MVP? And with Bryant having an MVP too, doesn't that make he and Mookie not as likely to be compared?
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on Jan 12, 2018 21:05:52 GMT -5
Mookie is asking 10.5 Million and the Red Sox offered 7.5 Million. 1) That’s less than Pomeranz and scarcely more than Bogaerts. Mookie is a better player than both. 2) I understand it’s a business, but Mookie is clearly worth 10.5 Million. Why not pay him that? 3) Shouldn’t we be worried about this turning into another Jon Lester lowball fiasco? 1-- Yes. And when Mookie gets to be a Free Agent he can make much more. 2-- Why pay him that if you don't have to? The Red Sox were willing to give him much more if only he'd sign an extension. Why shouldn't he sign? (My point is that it goes both ways.). 3-- No I'm not. He can sign an extension and make a lot more.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 12, 2018 21:24:34 GMT -5
Arbitration numbers are creeping closer to actually AAV matched in free agency in a lot of cases. The numbers that are crazy now.
|
|
|
Post by swingingbunt on Jan 12, 2018 21:38:04 GMT -5
Arbitration numbers are creeping closer to actually AAV matched in free agency in a lot of cases. The numbers that are crazy now. I guess I'm not seeing it. What cases are you referring to?
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 12, 2018 21:46:51 GMT -5
Arbitration numbers are creeping closer to actually AAV matched in free agency in a lot of cases. The numbers that are crazy now. I guess I'm not seeing it. What cases are you referring to? Donaldson in particular. He could make less if he has another injury riddled year.
|
|
|
Post by swingingbunt on Jan 12, 2018 21:55:59 GMT -5
I guess I'm not seeing it. What cases are you referring to? Donaldson in particular. He could make less if he has another injury riddled year. Gotcha, I haven't seen Donaldson's figure and thought you were talking about a player for the Red Sox
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 12, 2018 21:57:39 GMT -5
Some perspective... By baseball-reference's numbers Betts has given the team 24 wins over an average player. If we're conservative, and assume say $7 million per win - low given the team's playoff runs - the guy has been worth $170 million to the Red Sox during his 3+ seasons in the majors. That "creep" is going to have to become an Olympic sprint to catch up to his actual worth. One of the reasons for the crazy dance between ownership and the players is how distorted player value is, as others have mentioned. Teams want to squeeze out as much of that value out of the younger players as they can given the rules. This all harks back to the shadowy origins of the game, and the fight players had to put up to get some of that money in their pockets. The fallout from those negotiations has resulted in that distortion, with younger players at the back of the line.
Even if he makes $10 million this year, it's only a fraction of his true worth, which is likely to be somewhere between $30 and $50 million if he's healthy this year, and that would still be underpaying him if he has another season like 2016.
Add: The Machado and Donaldson numbers are from 1-year contracts, not from arbitration figures. That's a subtle but important difference. Those numbers do start to reflect value, though they're still likely to be far below the actual worth of the players involved.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Jan 12, 2018 22:02:45 GMT -5
I definitely wouldn't argue that Betts isn't "worth" $10.5M for the upcoming season, but I do think that Bryant has accomplished more and been a better player, and just received the highest ever year one arbitration at $10.85. I think if Betts had been at roughly $9M vs. Boston at $7.5M, the arbitrator might side with Betts, but at $10.5, I'm now leaning towards them siding with Boston.
The arbitration system is FAR from ideal, you can argue that it's terrible. But it's a precedent based system, so there's no way you can fault the Sox for putting in at 7.5. I'll argue that they probably should/could have settled in the $8.5M range, but chose not to. If the arbitrator sides with Betts, his Arb2 and Arb3 numbers are going to be ridiculously high. If the arbitrator sides with Boston, he'll be far cheaper for the next two years.
I'd try to buy out at least the final two years of his arbitration with a long term deal, but I just don't get the sense that that's the way that Betts wants to go. Will he leave in FA, I have no idea. But I certainly don't believe that the Sox and Betts disagreeing the past two years on his contract is going to have much, if anything to do with it
|
|
|
Post by jiant2520 on Jan 12, 2018 22:45:47 GMT -5
They would have exchanged numbers with Betts before this was released, but Kris Bryant just got $10.85M, setting a first-year arb record. When Ryan Howard won his record setting case, wasn't part of the reason because he had an MVP? And with Bryant having an MVP too, doesn't that make he and Mookie not as likely to be compared? And rookie of the year and a world series ring
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 12, 2018 23:17:40 GMT -5
I guess I'm not seeing it. What cases are you referring to? Donaldson in particular. He could make less if he has another injury riddled year. Donaldson is an exception here because he is in his 4th year of arbitration. In theory a 4th year arb player should be making approximately what they would make on the open market. So this makes sense.
|
|
|
Post by Coreno on Jan 12, 2018 23:21:12 GMT -5
I guess I'm not seeing it. What cases are you referring to? Donaldson in particular. He could make less if he has another injury riddled year. Donaldson is a former MVP in his final year of arbitration.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 12, 2018 23:35:36 GMT -5
Mookie is asking 10.5 Million and the Red Sox offered 7.5 Million. 1) That’s less than Pomeranz and scarcely more than Bogaerts. Mookie is a better player than both. 2) I understand it’s a business, but Mookie is clearly worth 10.5 Million. Why not pay him that? 3) Shouldn’t we be worried about this turning into another Jon Lester lowball fiasco?points 1 and 3 have already been well addressed by other posters, but I wanted to expand on what point #2 would entail. If the Red Sox Agree to 10.5mil for a year 1 arb player, as opposed to 7.5mil, it will not only cost them 3mil this year but it will contribute in setting the market and establishing his value. If you base his arb2&3 years off of these numbers, assuming he plays at a similar level, it could cost the Red Sox and additional 10.5mil over 2019 and 2020 - for a total cost of 13.5mil. That's a lot of money. Based on Kris Bryant's arb number of 10.85, and using fWAR to compare the 2 on a per-year basis, Mookie would be worth 9.1mil. However, arbitrators have been known to overvalue traditional stats such as home runs - where Bryant has a 21 homer advantage over the past 3 years and batting average - where Mookie has the edge but hit only .264 last year. It should be a close one, but i'm leaning slightly toward the Red Sox in winning the arb case. Let's just hope Mookie doesn't get unhappy with the hearing.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 12, 2018 23:40:01 GMT -5
Donaldson in particular. He could make less if he has another injury riddled year. Donaldson is an exception here because he is in his 4th year of arbitration. In theory a 4th year arb player should be making approximately what they would make on the open market. So this makes sense. It still is outrageous. That is a ton for a arbitration number.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 12, 2018 23:55:44 GMT -5
All things considered, I'm leaning heavily towards the Red Sox winning this if they go into arbitration with the numbers reported.
Like every other union on the planet, the entire system is heavily slanted to favor seniority over skill.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 13, 2018 2:05:31 GMT -5
Donaldson is an exception here because he is in his 4th year of arbitration. In theory a 4th year arb player should be making approximately what they would make on the open market. So this makes sense. It still is outrageous. That is a ton for a arbitration number. No, it isn't really. It's less than $2M more than the previous record held by Harper at $21.625M. Donaldson has an MVP, two fourth-place finishes, and an eighth-place finish entering his last year of arbitration. He also made $17M last year and has to get a raise - the arb number doesn't just come from a vacuum - it has to take into account what he was making.* MLBTR had him projected at $20.7M, so it was expected he was at least going to push Harper's number. * - this is another reason you don't just pay Betts whatever, as it's going to affect what he gets the next couple years as well if he is indeed going to go year-to-year.
|
|
|
Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jan 13, 2018 3:32:01 GMT -5
I get the feeling that Mookie is being a shrewd businessman. I don't think these disputes are as much about his current salary as they are setting him up for a gargantuan payday when he reaches FA. He's going to want $40 million AAV when he gets there, and he's trying to get his pre-FA numbers to reflect a status in the absolute upper echelon (half a dozen players or so) of the position player population.
|
|
CMF
Rookie
Posts: 91
|
Post by CMF on Jan 13, 2018 4:19:22 GMT -5
Mookie Papelbon
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 13, 2018 7:19:53 GMT -5
Just because Mookie hasn’t agreed to a figure yet, doesn’t mean there’s some kind of unresolvable dispute. People seem to be assuming a lot. I doubt they get to the hearing.
|
|
|
Post by prangerx on Jan 13, 2018 7:47:52 GMT -5
I can't fault Mookie for wanting the most money he can get.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Jan 13, 2018 8:13:39 GMT -5
Given that each party is representing their own interests and trying to win with their arguments are there many known cases of players losing and being resentful enough to sign elsewhere when they do reach FA?
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jan 13, 2018 8:40:24 GMT -5
The Red Sox front office has historically had a strong preference for settling over going to arbitration hearings. They have at least two weeks before the hearing, and I’m willing to bet that they settle on a number around the midpoint of the respective figures.
|
|