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MLBTR projected arb salaries (and the CBT)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 12, 2017 12:09:07 GMT -5
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 12, 2017 12:27:21 GMT -5
It seems difficult based on these projections to be able to sign any high end FA without hitting that $237 mark, unless they find some way to offset some of the cost of either Hanley or Porcello. Let alone add multiple pieces to this team.
I don't think they'll be overly concerned with any financial penalties, given that they've now been shoved out of the first round in consecutive years and have a Yankees team in the division, which looks prime for perennial contention for at minimum the division. The question is how much they value draft assets, at least for the upcoming cycle.
It doesn't seem too difficult to see them under the draft picks barrier post 2018, but to stay under that and get better for this upcoming season, that seems tricky
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 12, 2017 13:55:26 GMT -5
Does that 208 million include Castillo's 10.3 million ?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 12, 2017 14:38:00 GMT -5
Nope, so add that if he is added to the roster.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,844 
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 12, 2017 21:26:13 GMT -5
I tried to discuss the payroll/lux tax situation in the 2018 Look Ahead thread, but did so without solid information on exactly where the numbers stood. This is excelllent information and kudos to C-Hat for posting it.
It basically confirms what I thought, which is that it will be impossible to add a stud FA and work an extension for Mookie.
Some thoughts:
- Non-tender Ross, Rutledge, Holt and Thornburg.
- Trade Hanley for a jockstrap, maybe even a cup to be named later, and eat as much of the $22 million as you have to. If someone is willing to pay him $6 million next year, the RS should pay the other $16 million and be happy about it. That saves some bucks, opens up DH for JDM, and rids us of the headache about Hanley's 2019 option possibly vesting.
- If Wright or even Brian Johnson looks healthy, see if anyone will take Porcello. Clearing out the $20 million/year he has coming in 2018 and 2019 - or as much of it as possible - would be huge. The bar Wright would have to clear to make up for the loss of Porcello is pretty low - 98 ERA-plus, 1.4 WHIP and 4.6 FIP. And oh yeah, let's not forget the 38 dingers and inability to be of any use in the PS for the second year in a row. Wright was on pace for a 3 WAR season, or close to it, before being shut down in 2016.
- The Mookie extension, if one is even possible, would have to wait a year.
On my third suggestion, Price's status is also a huge factor. If they think they can get 20 to 25 starts out of him, then the decision to try and ditch Porcello becomes easier. Your rotation would be: Sale, D-Pom and Ed-Rod in the first three spots with Price, Wright, Johnson and next year's Fister accounting for the starts in the remaining two spots.
But even without ditching Procello, saving $6 million or so on Hanley's contract should leave the RS would enough money to sign JDM and fill in the other holes like fourth OFer to replace Young and 2B (assuming Pedroia is going to miss a good part of the season). I'd like to keep Nunez for Swiss army knife purposes. I'd be happy starting the season with him and Lin or Marco Hernandez sharing 2B.
I'm big on JDM and would be interested in what kind of contract other posters think it will take. Gotta admit though, 6 years, $150 milllion for a DH throws my stomach for a loop. It's $10 million more a year than the greatest DH of all-time made and he did it mostly on short-term contracts.
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Post by jmei on Oct 12, 2017 21:46:32 GMT -5
There's something odd about folks being so eager to dump bad free agent contracts in order to sign more free agent contracts.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 12, 2017 21:49:35 GMT -5
Wow, this is kind of eye opening. I didn't realize that the Sox were already over $200 million considering arbitration.
Kind of limits their options to one big player.
The Red Sox are not going to non-tender Tyler Thornburg. The Red Sox traded away Shaw, Dubon, Pennington and Coca for him. They're not going to give up on him that easily, especially considering that he is a really good reliever and his getting healthy mid-season is like a mid-season trade for Addison Reed at this point.
If they need to dump salary, obviously Hanley and Porcello are the 2 biggest candidates, but I don't think they'll get rid of either.
Porcello was horrible, but I also think that if the ball doesn't fly out of the park next year the way it did historically this year, then maybe Porcello could be average while throwing a bunch of innings.
It's easy to say Sale/Price/Pomeranz/E-Rod/Wright and who needs Porcello? But injuries happen - Price is a question mark, Pomeranz has yet to exceed 175 innings, E-Rod has chronic knee issues, and Wright is coming off an injury. The odds that all are healthy at the same time for a great length of time is not likely. Velazquez and Beeks provide depth - I assume Johnson winds up elsewhere, but I'd be surprised if the Sox moved Porcello.
I would also be surprised if Hanley was moved. If he's healthy I think he can still hit. It was a very short sample size, but in the 4 most important games of the season, Hanley was pretty much the Red Sox' best hitter.
Either the Sox get Hosmer and Hanley DHs or the Sox get JD Martinez to DH and hope Hanley can handle 1b with Sam Travis as Hanley insurance.
I don't trust Hanley to bat cleanup, but lower down in the order, he can do damage if he's reasonably healthy. I'm not convinced that he's finished yet.
The point is you're getting next to nothing for two guys who can help you, and not much salary relief.
Again I'm just surprised at how up against the cap they are and can totally see why they stayed under this season.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Oct 12, 2017 21:50:32 GMT -5
Non-tender Thornburg??? You think anyone would touch Hanley before he is DFA'd at any price? Can't see it with his contract, position, shoulders, value.
They can sign Martinez and one of someone like Moreland/one of the other second tier 1B/Nunez and stay under real penalties by just moving on from Kelly, Holt, Ross... maybe Leon if the Swihart report is true from Gammons.
I think Pomeranz is a trade candidate. Would imagine Bogaerts and Bradley get discussed too. More inclined to think this winter's haul ends up something like Alonso and Nunez. For the love of god no Hosmer.
Couple places have mentioned Rusney just be swapped in for Young, don't see how that is possible unless not much is done this winter. Makes the Brentz finish even more bizarre IMO.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 12, 2017 21:50:53 GMT -5
If you go over $237 million do you lose a pick or is your highest pick moved back 10 spots?
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Post by RedSoxStats on Oct 12, 2017 21:55:27 GMT -5
If you go over $237 million do you lose a pick or is your highest pick moved back 10 spots? Top pick dropped 10 spots, unless it's Top 6, in which case your 2nd pick is dropped 10. |
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,844
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 12, 2017 22:04:21 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure your pick gets moved back 10 spots. I don't think the RS will find that acceptable and I don't blame them.
I'm confident they could move Hanley and save some money. The question is this: If he were a FA, would someone sign him to a one-year deal for $4 million to $6 million? I think someone would.
I also think that they'd save a lot of money by moving Procello. SP is valuable and in today's market, I'm sure he'd have no trouble getting a two-year deal (that's how long he has left on his contract) for $12 million to $15 million a year. In fact, he'd get more than two years, I'm pretty sure. But I agree with Champs' point that losing his innings would leave them exposed in the rotation.
My main objective really isn't dumping Porcello, though. It's dumping Hanley and saving some money, which I think they'd be able to do.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Oct 12, 2017 22:06:57 GMT -5
The question is this: If he were a FA, would someone sign him to a one-year deal for $4 million to $6 million? I think someone would. With a 22M vesting option less than 500 PA away? |
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,844
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 12, 2017 22:10:34 GMT -5
The question is this: If he were a FA, would someone sign him to a one-year deal for $4 million to $6 million? I think someone would. With a 22M vesting option less than 500 PA away? Well, obviously they'd have to manage that and not let it happen. I'm pretty sure the RS will do that if he's back in 2018. I don't think that option will vest. |
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 12, 2017 22:31:36 GMT -5
Ross, Kelly and Holt seem like easy non-tenders to me.
Hanley just put up a 95 OPS+ as a 33 year old DH. He's so done. I would give him away yesterday but why would anyone take him even if you covered half his contract? I don't trust this front office to make any competent moves at this point so I'd definitely look for them to do something like package Hanley and a good prospect in exchange for a relief pitcher who will prob have UCL replacement surgery in April.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 12, 2017 22:37:48 GMT -5
There is no way in hell they're not tendering Thornburg. Next topic.
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 12, 2017 23:04:38 GMT -5
Ross, Kelly and Holt seem like easy non-tenders to me. Hanley just put up a 95 OPS+ as a 33 year old DH. He's so done. I would give him away yesterday but why would anyone take him even if you covered half his contract? I don't trust this front office to make any competent moves at this point so I'd definitely look for them to do something like package Hanley and a good prospect in exchange for a relief pitcher who will prob have UCL replacement surgery in April. Lol this actually made me laugh. I'm not a big fan of this front office either, but this is just way too negative |
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 12, 2017 23:06:51 GMT -5
Speaking of Hanley, doesn't anyone see a bounce back season from him next year? I mean he was playing with bum shoulders for pretty much the entire season this year, wasn't he
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Post by Coreno on Oct 13, 2017 0:35:58 GMT -5
Speaking of Hanley, doesn't anyone see a bounce back season from him next year? I mean he was playing with bum shoulders for pretty much the entire season this year, wasn't he Late in the season he had a pretty terrible approach too. It's like when he finally felt better he saw where his numbers were and was trying to crush everything to make up for lost time. The key is definitely staying healthy, but I'd be surprised if he's really toast. |
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Post by aznpopsical on Oct 13, 2017 6:26:52 GMT -5
Speaking of Hanley, doesn't anyone see a bounce back season from him next year? I mean he was playing with bum shoulders for pretty much the entire season this year, wasn't he Late in the season he had a pretty terrible approach too. It's like when he finally felt better he saw where his numbers were and was trying to crush everything to make up for lost time. The key is definitely staying healthy, but I'd be surprised if he's really toast. Well I'm going off my memory here, so correct me if I'm wrong. I remember years ago at one point, papi was really struggling for a few months, people were saying his bat was slow, that he was all washed up and was ready to move on from him. We all know what happened after that obviously. I bring this up because baseball is just a weird sport man, players have random down years, we really need to just focus on their entire body of work. This is without even mentioning the fact that Hanley actually had the injury excuse for his struggle, so I really do think people need to relax about him. I for one is perfectly fine with Hanley being our dh for next year, maybe even beyond, he just needs to have health on his side like you said. |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,018
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Post by nomar on Oct 13, 2017 7:37:08 GMT -5
I know we’ll have Hanley, Pablo, and even Porcello/Pedroia coming off the books in the coming years, but with our current payroll so high and our farm relatively low on high ceiling talent, I really hope we can bolster the farm this year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 13, 2017 8:44:42 GMT -5
Kelly and Thornburg aren't getting non tendered for that matter.
These players have value. You don't trade that. What's with that line of thinking? I mean, come on.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 13, 2017 9:08:58 GMT -5
There is no way in hell they're not non-tendering Thornburg. Next topic. ... I think you just said that they are non-tendering him, but I don't think that's what you meant... |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 13, 2017 10:12:25 GMT -5
Kelly and Thornburg aren't getting non tendered for that matter. These players have value. You don't trade that. What's with that line of thinking? I mean, come on. I don't think Thornburg goes anywhere, but Kelly could. It's mainly because your at 208 million, with a most likely limit of 237 million. If you want to make moves you are going to be dumping players. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 13, 2017 10:57:53 GMT -5
Kelly and Thornburg aren't getting non tendered for that matter. These players have value. You don't trade that. What's with that line of thinking? I mean, come on. I don't think Thornburg goes anywhere, but Kelly could. It's mainly because your at 208 million, with a most likely limit of 237 million. If you want to make moves you are going to be dumping players. Kelly will get traded if he goes, not non-tendered like some people are suggesting here. You don't dump players with value, no matter how much you're up against the tax. Porcello might be the one exception to this rule because he makes a lot, but even then I think he gets something in return. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 13, 2017 10:59:44 GMT -5
My bad for misspeaking on "losing picks." I was thinking about that after but never went back to rephrase.
For what it's worth, if you're picking at the back half of the first round, moving back 10 picks isn't necessarily a terrible thing. I don't think moving back from 26 to 36 is going to keep the Red Sox from signing, say, JD Martinez. If anything, losing the approximately $560k (the difference between the picks this year) off of the draft cap would be a much bigger deterrent than the difference in the caliber of player you're getting at each pick.
If anything, I think the club's concern money-wise will be controlling its future payroll more, giving itself an easier time getting back under the CBT in three years so they're not paying 50% on the overage. The window pretty clearly seems to be the next two seasons (after which Sale, Bogaerts, Porcello are gone, with Pomeranz and Kimbrel out the year before and Hanley off the books in one of the two years - assuming no extensions at least). I don't think that's an accident.
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