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2018 Patriots/NFL offseason thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 14, 2018 9:44:31 GMT -5
Overall it was typical patriots last year besides Gilmore and that worked out as well as it could. He was a shutdown CB. Him holding Jeffries catchless after his big start was a thing of beauty.
What didn't workout was too many injuries to the wrong players. With the most underrated one being Jonathan Jones against the Jags. His emergence as a slot CB is what helped turn our D around. Then no Butler, against maybe the most talented offense we faced doomed us. That along with Bill running a 3-4 daring the Eagles to run and they did. It's a shame, still blame the loss on Bill. Butler should have played, at a minimum after half-time. It's why I was okay not trading him, for a game just like the Superbowl. I feel the Giants beat us and got lucky, this one hurts because I still think we win if Butler just plays. The Eagles got lucky and Bill was stupid. I haven't said that many times in the last 20 years. Moving on.
The thing that really didn't workout was trading for marginal players like Elay and Marsh, then having Nink retire. Then Rivers get injured. One thing you struggle to find in season is even decent DEs. I don't need a huge contract guy, but we need one to two solid DEs. Would be more than happy with a McPhee, Murphy, Autry or even a guy like Hayes. Then a depth guy like Barwin, Carradine, or Lynch. You can't go huge because you have to pay Flowers next year. Heck they should try and sign him now.
I just hope we focus on solid Vets and nailing the draft. Don't do trades for Allens, Marches and that TE special teams player that didn't even make the team. I love the Shelton trade, would have loved Bennett, but don't do marginal trades. I never understood why Marsh cost two picks when he was so unproven.
Overall if we can keep Solder it will have been a decent free agency. Then add DE depth, some CB depth, maybe LB depth and it could be a great one. If Solder leaves, things get tricky. Kinda forces us to use a high pick on an OT. Not something you really want. Our top two picks not playing at all kinda killed us for 2018. This draft class might be the most important in recent memory.
Butler, Lewis, and Amendola have set us up for potentially getting a huge amount of comp picks. Hope they all do well and don't get injured. At the same time, don't teams learn? Free Agency is fun because in Football any team can get the best players. You just have to pay up. Thing is every year teams go huge and it almost never works out. Then they cut the players, have massive dead money cap hits and do it all over again. The Titans are paying over 21 million per year for Ryan and Butler. That's about 27 million when you add in Lewis. That is 1/7 of there cap space per year. A crazy figure for those 3 players. It's like the rest of the league has learned nothing from the Patriots in 20 years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 14, 2018 10:15:05 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 14, 2018 10:55:33 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 14, 2018 11:05:11 GMT -5
Overall it was typical patriots last year besides Gilmore and that worked out as well as it could. He was a shutdown CB. Him holding Jeffries catchless after his big start was a thing of beauty. What didn't workout was too many injuries to the wrong players. With the most underrated one being Jonathan Jones against the Jags. His emergence as a slot CB is what helped turn our D around. Then no Butler, against maybe the most talented offense we faced doomed us. That along with Bill running a 3-4 daring the Eagles to run and they did. It's a shame, still blame the loss on Bill. Butler should have played, at a minimum after half-time. It's why I was okay not trading him, for a game just like the Superbowl. I feel the Giants beat us and got lucky, this one hurts because I still think we win if Butler just plays. The Eagles got lucky and Bill was stupid. I haven't said that many times in the last 20 years. Moving on. The thing that really didn't workout was trading for marginal players like Elay and Marsh, then having Nink retire. Then Rivers get injured. One thing you struggle to find in season is even decent DEs. I don't need a huge contract guy, but we need one to two solid DEs. Would be more than happy with a McPhee, Murphy, Autry or even a guy like Hayes. Then a depth guy like Barwin, Carradine, or Lynch. You can't go huge because you have to pay Flowers next year. Heck they should try and sign him now. I just hope we focus on solid Vets and nailing the draft. Don't do trades for Allens, Marches and that TE special teams player that didn't even make the team. I love the Shelton trade, would have loved Bennett, but don't do marginal trades. I never understood why Marsh cost two picks when he was so unproven. Overall if we can keep Solder it will have been a decent free agency. Then add DE depth, some CB depth, maybe LB depth and it could be a great one. If Solder leaves, things get tricky. Kinda forces us to use a high pick on an OT. Not something you really want. Our top two picks not playing at all kinda killed us for 2018. This draft class might be the most important in recent memory. Butler, Lewis, and Amendola have set us up for potentially getting a huge amount of comp picks. Hope they all do well and don't get injured. At the same time, don't teams learn? Free Agency is fun because in Football any team can get the best players. You just have to pay up. Thing is every year teams go huge and it almost never works out. Then they cut the players, have massive dead money cap hits and do it all over again. The Titans are paying over 21 million per year for Ryan and Butler. That's about 27 million when you add in Lewis. That is 1/7 of there cap space per year. A crazy figure for those 3 players. It's like the rest of the league has learned nothing from the Patriots in 20 years. Yeah, I have to agree unfortunately. Can't remember where I read it but it was something to the effect that Butler didn't play because he was really crappy in practices. If that's true, it's really mind boggling. Butler got beat twice in practice during SB 49 on the same play that he made the game saving interception on during the superbowl. Practice is important (and not to sound like Allen Iverson here, but....), but it's not more important than his body of work, which despite its issues, was still better than the alternatives, especially when the alternatives failed miserably. Belichick is totally responsible for that super bowl loss. Now with all of these departures (Solder, Amendola, Lewis, Butler), I'm getting worried that the Patriots' best chances are now in the rearview mirror, that unless they strike gold with bargain free agents and/or have a kick butt draft, they are in trouble. I have trouble seeing how the Patriots are going to be a better team than they were last year and that's with the mediocre defense. I admittedly don't know much about football (who's better than who, etc), so I like to read what you and others write. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 14, 2018 13:40:38 GMT -5
Well this has been a dreadful start to free agency.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 14, 2018 16:18:01 GMT -5
Rex Burkhead back on a 3 year deal. BB is pretty predictable when it comes to free agency 90 percent of the time.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 14, 2018 19:17:01 GMT -5
Well this has been a dreadful start to free agency. Dreadful for all these dumb teams giving out ridiculous contracts. Solder is a quality left tackle who has trouble staying healthy and now he’s the highest paid OL in the league. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 14, 2018 19:51:37 GMT -5
Well this has been a dreadful start to free agency. Dreadful for all these dumb teams giving out ridiculous contracts. Solder is a quality left tackle who has trouble staying healthy and now he’s the highest paid OL in the league. The Patriots have signed special teams guys and a situational RB. I think BB will do something really significant, but it hasn't looked good so far. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 14, 2018 21:42:54 GMT -5
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Post by oilcan73 on Mar 15, 2018 3:05:56 GMT -5
Suh...pass. That guy is more trouble than he is worth and they seem set at the DL spot. They still need to add a slot CB in my opinion, some athleticism at LB and a pass rusher. Perhaps they can land a MLB and move Hightower permanently into the Ninkovich role. Great to bring back Burkhead. Now they draft an RB in the mid-rounds for the future.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 15, 2018 6:34:40 GMT -5
Suh...pass. That guy is more trouble than he is worth and they seem set at the DL spot. They still need to add a slot CB in my opinion, some athleticism at LB and a pass rusher. Perhaps they can land a MLB and move Hightower permanently into the Ninkovich role. Great to bring back Burkhead. Now they draft an RB in the mid-rounds for the future. The only way they sign Suh is on a cheap contract, so I would be all for it. That means he was willing to sacrifice to come here. I doubt that happens but that’s the only way he would be here. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 15, 2018 10:15:34 GMT -5
The first thing Suh said when released is he would sign with the team that gave him the most money. Given this market I don't see how that is the Patriots, even if we offered 10 million a year. I wanna say pass, I hate the guy. At the same time he's still a beast and could change the whole D overnight.
Reports say the Patriots went after DE Murphy and CB Robinson, but missed out on them. Watching Murphy go to the Bills is rough, we just wouldn't match or beat 3 years 21 million.
With the market exploding for WRs given the massive Evans extension, the deals for Watkins and Robinson, I might look at moving Cooks. He's a deep target that takes time to get open, we just lost our LT. Anyway you look at it, we most likely will have a downgraded line next year. Then add in the crazy cost for guys not even as good as Cooks, we stand no chance of signing him long-term. Nor would I even want to pay him 16 plus million on a long-term deal. While he's very good, he's not even close to good enough to be around 10% of the cap. Rather give that money to Masson and Flowers. I still don't just give him away, but if you get a really big offer I take it. Like a 2nd and 4th, or switch first round picks, plus more picks. Losing Solder might require we move up to get one of maybe two to four tackles that could start next year. The group as a whole sucks and 99% of the time they get overdrafted because of need. Given what Solder got paid the need is huge this year.
I think you have to resign Flemming now, unless he gets crazy money. He reminds me of Cannon, just keeps getting better each year. He's not a perfect fit as both Cannon and Flemming are best at RT. Thing is it gives you two guys that can start. Flemming has started at LT before or maybe the move Cannon over. Given this market I'd go 4 years 20 million, half guaranteed. Cannon, Flemming, Garcia and a drafted guy isn't bad. Hope Garcia or the draft pick beat Flemming and win the spot. You just need insurance for Brady.
I think it's time to go power running attack. As Brady gets older, it would seem smart to take pressure off him. Also it helps the D and will open things up for Brady downfield. You got two smaller RBs now and Gilislee if he's not cut. So either add another power back or get two of them. This might be a must if you can't protect Brady for 40 to 50 passes like in prior years. It's like Bill forgot that drafting RBs is one of smarter thing to do. You want younger guys and it might be the easiest and safest position to address in the later rounds.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 15, 2018 16:01:27 GMT -5
Patriots trade for Jason McCourty,send a 6th, get a 7th back. He costs just under 3 million and was rated well by PFF. This seems like a great move.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 15, 2018 18:24:41 GMT -5
Patriots trade for Jason McCourty,send a 6th, get a 7th back. He costs just under 3 million and was rated well by PFF. This seems like a great move. It’s a phenomenal move |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 16, 2018 10:12:19 GMT -5
Patriots bringing in Adrian Clayborn, Jeremy Hill and Eric Ebron for a visit today.
I like Clayborn, but don't let his 9.5 sacks fool you, he had 6 sacks in one game. That's 3.5 sacks in his other 15 games. That big game rated as the single best game for a DE for all of 2017 by PFF. 6 sacks and 12 QB pressures. When healthy and playing close to a full year he had 7.5, 5.5, 3.0, 4.5, and 9.5 sacks. So he's a very solid Vet, but he's not likely to give you 10 sacks next year either. So if you can get him for 4-5 million a year, it would be a good move. They lost out on Murphy to the Bills on a 3 year 21 million deal and he was much more of a true pass rusher we needed. Would be a very solid move to get him, I just expected in this market he'd get a crazy offer. Maybe not.
I like Hill. He is a bigger workhouse RB and he can catch the ball. I wouldn't pay him much at all though. Does he replace Gillislee? The two of them wouldn't be horrible, but we need a young cheap RB. Get an high upside type guy to at least compete with those two.
Eric Ebron is very interesting. Has top line receiving talent, but hasn't dominated the way he should. Still rated as the 13th best TE last year by PFF. He was released so he doesn't count against the comp picks. He makes a ton of sense. You can free up 5 million by releasing Allen. Signing Ebron would go a long way towards stocking the offense with more weapons after losing Lewis and Amendola.
Mike Reiss did an article on the comp picks today. Said we are in line to get two thirds and two sixth round picks. The market is crazy when Lewis getting a contract that pays him the 9th highest amount for a RB only nets you a 6th round pick. I don't get how Lewis and Amendola both net a 6th. Lewis is one of the highest paid RBs, Danny's deal is no where near top 10 for WRs. The whole system is based on what percentage your salary ranks per your position. Top 5% gets you a third, hence a third for Solder and Butler. So you would think Lewis would net us more than Amendola.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 16, 2018 10:26:29 GMT -5
Murphy was a nice target but he’s way overpaid by Buffalo. The guy is coming off a big injury and was hardly a world beater before that. I would have loved to get him but 7m a year is not the right price for him.
Agree with you on Clayborn and Ebron. Would take both happily on the right contract.
I really hope they bring Harrison back. I think he can be a key rotational piece to the defense.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 16, 2018 11:24:12 GMT -5
www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/trent-murphy?id=2543503I agree 7 million a year was a bit of an overpay, but he's a Nink/Vrabel type guy for me. He's a Standford guy, so he's smart. He needed to add strength, which is why he didn't break out till his 3rd year. He had 9 sacks not even starting any games. He just seemed like a perfect fit and the best chance at getting a guy that could give you 10 sacks. Hope I'm wrong because he could really help the Bills and give Brady trouble.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 16, 2018 11:43:37 GMT -5
Dwayne Allen and Mike Gillislee are probably going to be here for camp at least, their money doesn't become guaranteed until they make the 53 man roster. Since the Patriots always keep some room for in-season moves it makes a lot of sense to maintain depth and see how they look, and they can always cut them later in August to open up that cap flexibility. Also, if they are going to restructure and keep them, it makes more sense to wait until opening day approaches and other teams have set rosters, the players will have less leverage. I think Allen stays at a reduced number as they could use his blocking with the LT situation being sketchy. I wouldn't be shocked if Gillislee returns, but I hope they'll draft a RB or two in the mid rounds instead.
Clayborn has an extensive injury history that should cap his earning power. He's not an elite rusher by any means but I like his versatility to rush from the inside or edge. He's a very different player than Deatrich Wise or Derek Rivers, so I'd like the skill set with the current group. There aren't many players who are capable of 10+ sacks in this system, the best Patriots defenses have 4-5 players chipping in more than 5 sacks and generate pressure on multiple levels. I actually like Deatrich Wise to lead the team in sacks next season if he gets enough playing time which will depend on the acquisitions. The key for sack/pressure production will be for the DT's and LB's to provide better run defense on early downs and get the offense into more obvious passing situations. Hopefully having two corners who are good at man press will allow the coaches to get a bit more aggressive in terms of dialing up the pressure.
Ebron is very intriguing but his limitations as a blocker make him a questionable fit here, although Aaron Hernandez (I know, I know) carved out a very nice role with the same limitations. For some reason multiple reporters suggested Ebron might not even make this visit as he had two scheduled before NE, but if Bill signs him count me as excited. I look at the TE#2 spot as a top 5 or 6 need on this team at the moment, and even if Allen is retained I count him more as an extra tackle than a pass catcher.
Also, with the Bademosi signing by the Texans the Pats can now sign a 6 round comp FA contract without losing any comp picks as they are now in line for 2 3rds and 3 6ths but teams can only get up to 4 comp picks.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 16, 2018 14:37:02 GMT -5
Wow Bademosi got two years 6.25 million. That is crazy. I guess people didn't watch him play CB last year. Good special teams player, but that contract acts like he's legit CB depth and he's not. Per year thats almost what Burkhead got.
Keeping Allen for his blocking is something they might do. He's clearly the most overpaid player on the roster though. If you need cap space he's the most likely one to get cut or restructure. It's easy to find good blocking TE's, it's hard to find ones that can block and catch. I'd rather spend that 5 million on Fleming or a guy like Ebron. Heck almost anyone but Allen. Would seem like a good time to find a younger blocking TE in the draft. A guy like Durham Smythe would be great.
Ebron sucks at blocking, but he is a matchup nightmare for defenses. We lack size at WR, so he would help create mismatches our WRs can't. Few teams have a guy that can cover Gronk, no teams can cover two huge TE's that move like Gronk and Ebron. Most likely won't happen, I bet he gets a bigger deal than we'd offer. I see why they are bringing him in though. Hoping he might take less to play with the Patriots and Brady.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 16, 2018 18:18:50 GMT -5
Patriots sign Adrian Clayborn and Jeremy Hill.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 16, 2018 20:19:39 GMT -5
They also signed Matt Tobin OT to a one year deal.
Clayborn is 2 years, maximum value of 12.5 million. We needed an upgrade, nice move.
Tobin sucks, so hope this is a near minimum deal.
Will like the Hill deal if he's cheap.
Just filling holes and creating depth, typical Patriot moves.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 16, 2018 23:41:38 GMT -5
If you're a believer in overall PFF grades (based on 2017-2018), then we just quietly upgraded at DE (Wise to Clayborn), CB (Butler to McCourty), and DT (Butler/Guy to Shelton). All while staying under the cap with the draft yet to come. OT obviously the big concern with the no obvious answer, but you have to feel decent about the rest of the team right now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 17, 2018 0:11:57 GMT -5
The Patriots should probably draft a OT in the early rounds if the draft has a guy worth drafting that high.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 17, 2018 7:17:03 GMT -5
They also signed Matt Tobin OT to a one year deal. Clayborn is 2 years, maximum value of 12.5 million. We needed an upgrade, nice move. Tobin sucks, so hope this is a near minimum deal. Will like the Hill deal if he's cheap. Just filling holes and creating depth, typical Patriot moves. It’s hard for me to judge offensive linemen who don’t play here but we typically do a good job of finding them and developing them and I have a lot of faith in Dante. Tobin is pretty young still so theoretically he’s in that upswing part of his career. These guys develop late and come from no where a lot of the time. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 17, 2018 8:22:53 GMT -5
www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/matt-tobin/8211www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-seattle-bolsters-their-offensive-line-trades-for-matt-tobinI know nothing about Tobin, so I go by PFF grades. Last year he was horrible with a 55.6, that's like Waddle. For comparison Solder grade was like an 85 and Fleming was like an 87. The second article shows Tobin did better when on the Eagles. He can play OT and G, so nice depth move, but you don't want him as the starter. The money will tell us more, I expect 2-3 million. If it's more then maybe they expect more. When he played OT for the Eagles, I'd love to know the percentage of plays he had a TE helping him on passing plays. I expect it was a ton, because they traded him for a 5th, while giving up a 7th. That is nothing if he is truly even close to a starting level OT.
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