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4/5-4/8 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 5, 2018 21:56:29 GMT -5
Koji, Hanrahan and Pat Light. 3 pitchers which never appeared in the same sentence until just now.
Thought I do agree about Poyner being good.
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Post by patford on Apr 5, 2018 22:02:19 GMT -5
Aside from Hanley the big take-away if Bobby Poyner . Throws strikes and misses bats. The velo is irrelevant. Koji proved that as did Hanrahan and Pat Light. To miss bats a pitcher needs two pitches with command and separation. BTW. I have come to love Hanley. And not just this year but over the whole time he has been here. He has changed. He has matured. I think his teammates like him and his downside baggage has for the most part vanished. He is still puckish but in a good way.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 5, 2018 22:03:18 GMT -5
Hanrahan was good though! I mean, not the broken version the Red Sox got, obviously. But quite good from 2008 to 2011. Even the 2009 first-half meltdown should be written off as a fluke, considering his FIP was 3.62 during his stretch with the Nationals that year, and then his 2010 ERA was 3.62. Score one for us nerds!
Pat Light and Bobby Poyner are pretty good contrasts though, yes.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 5, 2018 22:04:06 GMT -5
I'd rather spend the 22 million AAV on Pomeranz or Kimbrel. Luckily, that's not an actual, mutually exclusive decision that they'll be making. It's really hard to see Pomeranz and Kimbrel back if Hanley is soaking up 22 million AAV, even for one season. It's hard to see it regardless, so Hanley's vesting option makes near impossible, if it vests.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 5, 2018 22:05:38 GMT -5
Aside from Hanley the big take-away if Bobby Poyner . Throws strikes and misses bats. The velo is irrelevant. Koji proved that as did Hanrahan and Pat Light. To miss bats a pitcher needs two pitches with command and separation. Who would I rather have, Joe Kelly or Trevor Hoffman? Hmmm. Definitely agree that relief pitchers, and pitchers in general, do not need to throw 97. Also agree that Poyner has looked good so far, looked good in the minors and looked good in spring training. Still the Red Sox have only faced the Rays and the Marlins so far. So we shall see if still keeping up his Koji, Okajima, Hoffman success in mid-July.
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Post by patford on Apr 5, 2018 22:07:49 GMT -5
Koji, Hanrahan and Pat Light. 3 pitchers which never appeared in the same sentence until just now. Thought I do agree about Poyner being good. Light and Hanrahan threw 100 mph and all that did was add to the exit velocity. Koji threw 89 and people were helpless against him. Forget Kimbrel and even Pedro. I have never had more faith in a Sox pitcher. When he entered the game was not only over it was over quick.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 5, 2018 22:31:56 GMT -5
If you trade JBJ for prospects and move Swihart to RF full-time next off-season, you could shift Mookie CF and lose very little defensively. Swihart could probably be a really good corner outfielder. You could then let Sam Travis and Chavis battle it out for 1B time next year.
If Hanley's option doesn't vest, then you COULD extend both Pomeranz and Kimbrel. If not, you could extend Kimbrel only (I'm assuming) and use JBJ for pitching.
All in all, roster construction would be 100 percent easier with Hanley gone. You'd be losing a good amount with JBJ being traded and Hanley gone (maybe with Hanley), but Dave Dombrowski knows how to evaluate major league talent and can probably find a good match in order to suit a need (Granderson was in arbitration when Dave traded him for Scherzer).
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Post by patford on Apr 5, 2018 22:38:06 GMT -5
If you trade JBJ for prospects and move Swihart to RF full-time next off-season, you could shift Mookie CF and lose very little defensively. Swihart could probably be a really good corner outfielder. You could then let Sam Travis and Chavis battle it out for 1B time next year. If Hanley's option doesn't vest, then you COULD extend both Pomeranz and Kimbrel. If not, you could extend Kimbrel only and use JBJ for pitching. All in all, roster construction would be 100 percent easier with Hanley gone. You'd be losing a good amount with JBJ being traded and Hanley gone (maybe), but Dave Dombrowski knows how to evaluate major league talent and can probably find a good match in order to suit a need (Granderson was in arbitration when Dave traded him for Scherzer). Let's just say I would try not to vest Hanley if he is hitting around .270 with 20 hrs. What if he hits around 50 hrs. ? Or bats above .280 with around 40 ? I do think he has become a "good guy." Someone his teammates like.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2018 22:42:04 GMT -5
Luckily, that's not an actual, mutually exclusive decision that they'll be making. It's really hard to see Pomeranz and Kimbrel back if Hanley is soaking up 22 million AAV, even for one season. It's hard to see it regardless, so Hanley's vesting option makes near impossible, if it vests. The bolded part was my point. Considering that in the future they also need to plan on a significant raise for Sale and continuing significant arbitration raises, I have a hard time imagining that they'll even try to re-sign Pomeranz if Price gets through this season healthy. If Porcello isn't a disaster and Rodriguez's knee surgery works in correcting his issues, it'll be really hard to justify paying Pomeranz too. It comes down to the fact that there are a LOT more moving parts on this roster in the next few years than a single contract given the number of guys they have in arbitration. EDIT: On the Swihart point you made, there is zero indication that he will hit enough to justify starting every day at a position other than catcher. I find it very hard to believe that a team with Hanley at first base in 2019 will be worse than a team starting Blake Swihart in an outfield corner (by the way, the move would pretty obviously be to play Swihart in left field if he's playing in an outfield with Betts and Benintendi).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 5, 2018 22:54:49 GMT -5
It's really hard to see Pomeranz and Kimbrel back if Hanley is soaking up 22 million AAV, even for one season. It's hard to see it regardless, so Hanley's vesting option makes near impossible, if it vests. The bolded part was my point. Considering that in the future they also need to plan on a significant raise for Sale and continuing significant arbitration raises, I have a hard time imagining that they'll even try to re-sign Pomeranz if Price gets through this season healthy. If Porcello isn't a disaster and Rodriguez's knee surgery works in correcting his issues, it'll be really hard to justify paying Pomeranz too. It comes down to the fact that there are a LOT more moving parts on this roster in the next few years than a single contract given the number of guys they have in arbitraiton. I think it's manageable though. Pomeranz is most likely a goner, but even extending Kimbrel will be tough if Hanley's option vests. You lose Kimbrel, this bullpen becomes bad in a hurry. I'm not worried about 2019 because there's 70 million in AAV that will be gone guarenteed by then. There should be room to get Mookie and Sale done at the very least. You build around that and go from there.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 5, 2018 23:01:02 GMT -5
I honestly believe too that Swihart could cover more ground in RF than Benny could in CF. If Benny moves to CF, you're losing a lot, not a little defensively. Swihart can fly. I think he could handle RF Fenway. Maybe he's just a glove only guy out there, but he's got the defensive tools to do it (good arm, good range).
I think you're most likely right about Swihart's bat though and you could be searching for a bat for a JBJ replacement if Swihart can't hit.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2018 23:16:07 GMT -5
Not sure that I've seen this posted in here yet, but Eduardo Rodriguez will be activated on Sunday to make the start. It will be interesting to see if Walden or Velazquez is the one who goes down. I honestly believe too that Swihart could cover more ground in RF than Benny could in CF. If Benny moves to CF, you're losing a lot, not a little defensively. Swihart can fly. I think he could handle RF Fenway. Maybe he's just a glove only guy out there, but he's got the defensive tools to do it (good arm, good range). I think you're most likely right about Swihart's bat though and you could be searching for a bat for a JBJ replacement if Swihart can't hit. Are you saying that you think Swihart would have more range than the average MLB center fielder? Because I'm pretty sure that's what you're saying and I'm pretty sure that's insane. You're projecting a guy that has barely played any outfield to be a glove-first outfielder. Possible I'm missing something here but I don't think I am.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 5, 2018 23:32:25 GMT -5
Not sure that I've seen this posted in here yet, but Eduardo Rodriguez will be activated on Sunday to make the start. It will be interesting to see if Walden or Velazquez is the one who goes down. I honestly believe too that Swihart could cover more ground in RF than Benny could in CF. If Benny moves to CF, you're losing a lot, not a little defensively. Swihart can fly. I think he could handle RF Fenway. Maybe he's just a glove only guy out there, but he's got the defensive tools to do it (good arm, good range). I think you're most likely right about Swihart's bat though and you could be searching for a bat for a JBJ replacement if Swihart can't hit. Are you saying that you think Swihart would have more range than the average MLB center fielder? Because I'm pretty sure that's what you're saying and I'm pretty sure that's insane. You're projecting a guy that has barely played any outfield to be a glove-first outfielder. Possible I'm missing something here but I don't think I am. I think the outfield defense would be better off if Benny stays in LF. He was a -2 DRS guy in CF last year, small sample but it's all we got. He's a plus defender in LF. I think Swihart is faster than Benintendi (speed wise) and can cover more ground. Whether that means he could be a better outfielder in general is another discussion, but Swihart has all the tools to be a really good RF. If he got reps out there, I think he could be really good out there. Give him a full spring training next year and see how it looks. Maybe even try him out in Fenway RF this year. Basically what I'm saying is I think Benintendi is a below average CF over the course of a full season and that isn't good in one of the most important positions on the field. I'd rather have Mookie in CF if JBJ left. I know Mookie is above average in CF without question.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 6, 2018 0:34:14 GMT -5
Not sure that I've seen this posted in here yet, but Eduardo Rodriguez will be activated on Sunday to make the start. It will be interesting to see if Walden or Velazquez is the one who goes down. Are you saying that you think Swihart would have more range than the average MLB center fielder? Because I'm pretty sure that's what you're saying and I'm pretty sure that's insane. You're projecting a guy that has barely played any outfield to be a glove-first outfielder. Possible I'm missing something here but I don't think I am. I think the outfield defense would be better off if Benny stays in LF. He was a -2 DRS guy in CF last year, small sample but it's all we got. He's a plus defender in LF. I think Swihart is faster than Benintendi (speed wise) and can cover more ground. Whether that means he could be a better outfielder in general is another discussion, but Swihart has all the tools to be a really good RF. If he got reps out there, I think he could be really good out there. Give him a full spring training next year and see how it looks. Maybe even try him out in Fenway RF this year. Basically what I'm saying is I think Benintendi is a below average CF over the course of a full season and that isn't good in one of the most important positions on the field. I'd rather have Mookie in CF if JBJ left. I know Mookie is above average in CF without question. RF at Fenway is one of the hardest positions to play. You want to take a converted catcher with very little experience in the OF and put him in RF? Benintendi would probably be below average in CF, but he is naturally a CF so I wouldn't think he'd be a bigger liability in CF than Swihart would be in RF. If you wanted Benintendi in RF and Mookie in CF I could see that, but not Swihart in RF, particularly at Fenway. And like Chris said, Swihart is a good hitter for a catcher, but I doubt he hits enough for an OF and then you throw in questionable defense in the outfield, and you're looking at a liability. Swihart is quick, but he's not the speedster you make him sound like. And as I said before regarding Hanley, if he plays another season it means that both Pomeranz and Kimbrel aren't coming back - they could only sign one of them, and honestly the Sox wouldn't sign both of them, because that requires long-term cash, and that would mess them up at the end of 2019 to try to re-sign Sale and Bogaerts. Hanley's money, either way, would be off the books in 2019, so you'd only be tying up that big money for one year versus the five year commitments you'd have to make to both Kimbrel and Pomeranz. And like you (I think) I prefer Kimbrel over Pomeranz. I think in this rare case Kimbrel is more irreplaceable - as long as he remains at an elite level anyways, and given the state of the Red Sox bullpen and the starting pitching depth the Sox now enjoy.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 6, 2018 5:15:04 GMT -5
It's really hard to see Pomeranz and Kimbrel back if Hanley is soaking up 22 million AAV, even for one season. It's hard to see it regardless, so Hanley's vesting option makes near impossible, if it vests. The bolded part was my point. Considering that in the future they also need to plan on a significant raise for Sale and continuing significant arbitration raises, I have a hard time imagining that they'll even try to re-sign Pomeranz if Price gets through this season healthy. If Porcello isn't a disaster and Rodriguez's knee surgery works in correcting his issues, it'll be really hard to justify paying Pomeranz too. It comes down to the fact that there are a LOT more moving parts on this roster in the next few years than a single contract given the number of guys they have in arbitration. EDIT: On the Swihart point you made, there is zero indication that he will hit enough to justify starting every day at a position other than catcher. I find it very hard to believe that a team with Hanley at first base in 2019 will be worse than a team starting Blake Swihart in an outfield corner (by the way, the move would pretty obviously be to play Swihart in left field if he's playing in an outfield with Betts and Benintendi). Regarding your statement about Pomeranz not being resigned if Price gets through the season healthy. If Price gets through the season healthy, he very may well opt out if his contract. So the Red Sox will be stuck trying to replace 40% of the rotation. Or is your suggestion that if Price gets through the season healthy, then opts out, resigning him should be the bigger priority?
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Post by oilcan73 on Apr 6, 2018 6:14:33 GMT -5
I don't see any chance Pomeranz is in Boston next year. They will have to focus on Kimbrel and at some point they need to start trying to lock up the likes of Bogaerts and Betts, as long as they are willing to do so. They also need to work on extending Sale at some point which is going to be very costly. What are the odds Price opts out of his contract if he continues to pitch well and stays healthy all year? I think at his age that is unlikely, but crazier things have been done. As good as Price is that would probably be good for the Sox.
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Post by oilcan73 on Apr 6, 2018 6:16:17 GMT -5
These wins are great, but the bats gotta get going soon as they start playing actual major league teams on Tuesday with the MFY coming to town. 3 runs won't beat that lineup. It is always nice to get wins early in the season, but TB is downright terrible.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 6, 2018 6:22:20 GMT -5
I don’t see Price opting out, even if he wins the Cy Young. He’s got 4 years 127m due after this season and he will be 33 years old. He’s not sniffing that kind of money.
Pomeranz, is a tricky one... Alex Cobb just got 4/57... not sure why Pomeranz would be given a much bigger contract than that.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 6, 2018 6:28:03 GMT -5
Pomeranz, is a tricky one... Alex Cobb just got 4/57... not sure why Pomeranz would be given a much bigger contract than that. The best answer I got for this is that there are more teams willing to spend next year like the Yankees, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, and possibly a few others next off-season. Most of those teams were either being cheap and trying to rebuild, or was try to stay under the CBT. There might be more competition for Pomeranz's services next off-season than there were for Cobb's services this year.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 6, 2018 6:29:49 GMT -5
I doubt Price opts out based on his questionable elbow and the market that we just saw on pitchers this past free agency. That along with all the money that will be going to a big FA class would make it difficult for him to get the same aav, IMO. Sorry Pedro, you need to come in off the cliff when it comes to Manley. If he is healthy and raking he is worth that last season at 22. It makes more sense all the way around. Pomeranz is most likely gone, the Sox can't give him a LT deal as it will interfere with signing other guys while Hanleys deal will come off the books and does fit LT. The trading of JBJ to install BS at a corner isn't such a great idea either IMO.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 6, 2018 7:31:36 GMT -5
Pomeranz, is a tricky one... Alex Cobb just got 4/57... not sure why Pomeranz would be given a much bigger contract than that. Cobb went into free agency with a three-year bWAR of 1.6. He had a K rate of 17.2% last year. Pomeranz's bWAR was 3.3 in 2016 and 3.9 in 2017, and his K rate during that two-year period is 24.9%. And, while Pomeranz has questionable durability, I can't think that those questions are more notable than Cobb's. Pomeranz is just better. With a solid season I'd think something like 5/$90 would be within reach.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 6, 2018 8:21:57 GMT -5
You can write off this excellence as the Red Sox facing inferior competition, but they are dominating in a way that would be unrealistic to expect.
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Post by p23w on Apr 6, 2018 8:30:05 GMT -5
Sale's velocity is of some concern. Price looks as good as he has ever been. Porcello looks more 2016ish than 2017ish (a good thing) Pomeranz is a wild card (as is Erod) for 2018. Can't complain about Vasquez.
But lets' get real. The rotation and bullpen have yet to face playoff caliber team offenses. Going 6-1 to start the season is peaches and cream. This team needs to show it's mettle against good line ups. If this team was 6-1 against the "stros and yanks I'd be doing cartwheels. I hope to be doing cartwheels when the going gets tough. I really don't comprehend talking future years/contraqcts in April. We're doing battle in the here and now with the roster compiled by the front office braintrust. I am anxious to see just how good and just how far this team will go, as is. We're coming up on the one mile marker of the 2018 marathon. The herd hasn't even begun to thin out. Stay healthy, stay strong Red Sox team. We have faith... at the mile one marker.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 6, 2018 8:30:06 GMT -5
And without ERod and Pomeranz. That's nuts.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 6, 2018 8:37:37 GMT -5
Pomeranz, is a tricky one... Alex Cobb just got 4/57... not sure why Pomeranz would be given a much bigger contract than that. Cobb went into free agency with a three-year bWAR of 1.6. He had a K rate of 17.2% last year. Pomeranz's bWAR was 3.3 in 2016 and 3.9 in 2017, and his K rate during that two-year period is 24.9%. And, while Pomeranz has questionable durability, I can't think that those questions are more notable than Cobb's. Pomeranz is just better. With a solid season I'd think something like 5/$90 would be within reach. It’s possible but don’t forget if he’s on the market after a good healthish season.. he’s going to be holding a QO from the Sox. I would think anyways.
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