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4/24-4/26 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Apr 25, 2018 21:22:03 GMT -5
Rafa's contact% before this game was 70.1% (Dropped from last year 75.2%) and he's seeing pitchs in the zone less than last year. He said that he doesn't watch videos and "go with the feel", I think it's time to start hitting that video room young man! So much talent with a horrible approach.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 25, 2018 21:23:01 GMT -5
Great win!
Devers - Video suite with a consistency coach.
Febles - an eye exam, with a full spectrum on depth perception and myopia.
Nuñez - any preference on where you’re traded after Xander comes back? Lin and Holt will cover your D Adequately until Pedroiaa returns, and then they’ll spell him early on.In the aggregate Linand Holt have your offense, too.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 25, 2018 21:47:07 GMT -5
Rafa's contact% before this game was 70.1% (Dropped from last year 75.2%) and he's seeing pitchs in the zone less than last year. He said that he doesn't watch videos and "go with the feel", I think it's time to start hitting that video room young man! So much talent with a horrible approach. I think he has taken the aggressive approach too far. Be aggressive if it's a pitch you can handle...not just hack away. I'm betting his BA continues to slide for a while. This will be a learning/adjustment year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 25, 2018 22:10:16 GMT -5
A win's a win's a win.
The Sox made it a lot harder than it needed to be.
Mookie was awesome. Holt, surprisingly enough, has done an excellent job in Bogaerts' absence.
E-Rod had another strong outing. And Hembree, Kelly, and Kimbrel were spotless.
All good things.
But the Sox almost undid it with terrible baserunning and lousy defense.
Their baserunning cost them a couple of runs with JBJ going the wrong way and almost getting passed by Vazquez and Benintendi not scoring on that deep enough flyball.
Devers is back to making a bunch of errors and Nunez's defense at 2b leaves a lot to be desired - there was a play he should have tagged the hitter/runner out when the throw totally beat him.
The situational hitting wasn't there tonight either. That's also the law of averages bringing the Sox down to earth.
Fortunately though, what ultimately matters, is that the Sox snapped their 3 game skid and got back into the win column. Now the lead is 4 over both Toronto and NY. Too bad the Twins don't have the cajones to ever stand up to the Yankees.
The one interesting thing from tonight that gets me thinking is that Holt, who is on a hot streak, resembles the Brock Holt pre-concussion - and that guy was a useful player.
Alex Cora made it pretty clear that he really has no desire to catch Swihart. And Nunez has zero range at 2b. Putting these together once Bogaerts and Pedroia return, unless there's another injury, the Sox will have to decide to send down Pedroia or cut Leon or deal away Swihart.
I think Holt is making it that they really can't send him down. He's really the only viable SS backup option to give Xander a day off when Lin is in AAA, and he can play the OF and he might actually be a better defensive option than Nunez when Pedroia needs a day off.
Nunez's range is diminished and his best option might be as a guy to give Devers a breather at 3b and occasionally play at 2b.
So unless Swihart unseats Leon and I don't see how that can happen if they refuse to catch him, I'd say Swihart's days with the Sox are numbered.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 25, 2018 22:40:07 GMT -5
I think the Nunez signing was a terrific one, but he most definitely is wholly inadequate at 2nd. I think that with Lin and Holt, and Bogey back with Pedey on the way, Nunez may be movable. I like the depth and I’m tempted to say, send Holt or Lin down, but Nunez is really hurting them defensively. At the very least, we can look back to a huge jump in INF defense with Pedey back.
I think Devers will be fine, btw. I agree that he’s going to face some serious adjustments, but I’m impressed with the rate he’s made them so far. Video certainly wouldn’t hurt, though. I think that with Cora, Febles, Levangie, and the younger players (Beni, Devers, Lin, etc) there are going to be adjustment periods. That’s part of being new to a situation. OTOH, all strike me as eminently capable of quickly making those adjustments and being successful. This team just lost their first series of the season and it’s nearly May. They obliterated (away) a team that entered that series scorching hot and leading MLB in run differential. They lost a tough one inOakland and in extra innings last night. They stopped a three-game losing streak and stand at 18-5. This is still an outstanding team, playing well. They ran into a talented pitcher, who’s been hot, and who pitched the game of his life (and it was really all him...it’s not like they were taking crappy hacks), and they had a little funk. I mean, I agree with some of the nits we’re picking but I absolutely love this team, and the staff. It’s a great *team*.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 26, 2018 0:16:42 GMT -5
Leverage-Adjusted Win Probability Added per 600 PA:
Xander Bogaerts 8.2 Mookie Betts 8.1 Hanley Ramirez 7.3 Brock Holt 6.1 And. Benintendi 5.7 Mitch Moreland 3.4 Eduardo Nunez -1.3 Rafael Devers -1.4 J.D. Martinez -2.8 Tzu-Wei Lin -3.1 Jackie Bradley -3.1 Christ. Vazquez -3.9 Sandy Leon -5.7 Blake Swihart -7.1 JDM has been remarkably un-clutch (continuing a career pattern). And they're only getting above-average contributions to winning from four positions!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 26, 2018 0:46:13 GMT -5
The one interesting thing from tonight that gets me thinking is that Holt, who is on a hot streak, resembles the Brock Holt pre-concussion - and that guy was a useful player. ... Once Bogaerts and Pedroia return, unless there's another injury, the Sox will have to decide to send down Holt or cut Leon or deal away Swihart. I think Holt is making it that they really can't send him down. He's really the only viable SS backup option to give Xander a day off when Lin is in AAA, and he can play the OF and he might actually be a better defensive option than Nunez when Pedroia needs a day off. Nunez's range is diminished and his best option might be as a guy to give Devers a breather at 3b and occasionally play at 2b. So unless Swihart unseats Leon and I don't see how that can happen if they refuse to catch him, I'd say Swihart's days with the Sox are numbered. I'm on board with this analysis: Leon or Swihart has to go once everyone is healthy. Do folks think that Sandy Leon would accrue 3.4 more bWAR than Blake Swihart if they were both someone's regular catcher, starting 120 games? That large a difference seems highly dubious. And that's what it would take for the downgrade (if there actually is one) to cost them a win, catching 30% of the games starting in mid-late May. I'll take the risk that moving Leon costs you a win for the upside chance that, by the end of the year, Swihart's the better player and has hugely more trade value in the long run. I'm hoping the team thinks the same way. I don't think we'll learn anything until Pedey starts a rehab assignment. I can absolutely see them waiting that long before working Swihart into the catcher rotation.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 26, 2018 8:09:10 GMT -5
Plenty of good seats still available at Rogers Centre for tonight's game. Frauds. To be fair, the Leafs are on TV in a Game 7 and the Raptors are hosting a playoff game up the road. It's a hockey town first - I wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of people with tickets said screw it and prioritized the hockey game. And LOL at them.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 26, 2018 9:41:40 GMT -5
It does seem silly to update the relief performance rankings every handful of days, but ...
1) I can grab the numbers in a minute or two, and
2) "Do we have an 8th inning reliever?" is probably the only significant question that is unanswered, and
3) Given 1) and 2) it's hard not to share the findings when they're so volatile at this point in the season.
Note that the way I interpret rankings is, the top 15 guys are good enough to be a closer for a contender, the next 30 guys are 8th inning, the 30 guys after that are 7th inning, and so on. So an above-average 8th inning guy, the one a contender wants to have, is ranked 16-30 and is hence good enough to be a closer for a non-contender,
(This is the same logic I've used for starter rankings, where the top 15 guys are aces, the next 30 guys are #2, and so on.)
So, Joe Kelly has gone from ranking 43 / 48 (expected and actual value towards wins, per PA) to 26 / 23. That's an above-average 8th inning guy, a guy who could close for an also-ran. I'm skeptical he can sustain this, but we can always hope.
Heath Hembree was ranked 47 / 52 and is now 36 / 45. That's crossing the line from top 7th inning guy to serviceable 8th inning guy. He'd be a great 7th inning guy if he can keep this up.
Matt Barnes hasn't pitched, but as folks regress to the mean, he's gone from 19/115 to 14/115. We still want to see what he can do.
Craig Kimbrel has gone from 8 / 2 to 20 / 16. That's what happens when you give up a walk-off HR. The current ranking translates to 8th inning guy (second-division closer), but he can be expected to improve rather than regress. Right now his xWP- is 42, where 50 and below is closer quality, so he needs another solid stretch without a failure to start looking like an elite closer like he did last year than just an ordinary contender's closer as he was in 2016.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 26, 2018 10:16:50 GMT -5
The eye test with Kimbrel shows that he's nowhere close to as good as last year. He's lost a few mph off his fastball and he's not getting as many chases on his slider probably because he's lost a few mph off his fastball.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 26, 2018 10:21:08 GMT -5
The eye test with Kimbrel shows that he's nowhere close to as good as last year. He's lost a few mph off his fastball and he's not getting as many chases on his slider probably because he's lost a few mph off his fastball. Well, he had no spring training, so that might be part of the reason why he is off to a slower start.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Apr 26, 2018 10:34:19 GMT -5
So the Red Sox will be completing a nine game road trip tonight in which they traveled to the west coast and played 3 teams that have winning records. They have already ensured that they will have a winning record on that road trip and would end it with 6 wins if they can win tonight. That is a very good road trip by any standards.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 26, 2018 10:40:13 GMT -5
The eye test with Kimbrel shows that he's nowhere close to as good as last year. He's lost a few mph off his fastball and he's not getting as many chases on his slider probably because he's lost a few mph off his fastball. Well, he had no spring training, so that might be part of the reason why he is off to a slower start. I'm hoping that's what it is. His K-BB% has gone from 44.1% to 20.6%.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 26, 2018 10:44:44 GMT -5
So the Red Sox will be completing a nine game road trip tonight in which they traveled to the west coast and played 3 teams that have winning records. They have already ensured that they will have a winning record on that road trip and would end it with 6 wins if they can win tonight. That is a very good road trip by any standards. Rays, Royals and Rangers coming up so they *should* start racking up the wins again.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Apr 26, 2018 11:32:53 GMT -5
Can anyone explain to me why the Blue Jays did not pinch hit with Granderson against Kimbrel in the 9th inning let night?
I am glad they didn't, but it seemed like an obvious move, particularly since the last out was Gurriel, a right handed hitter.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 26, 2018 11:56:20 GMT -5
Can anyone explain to me why the Blue Jays did not pinch hit with Granderson against Kimbrel in the 9th inning let night? I am glad they didn't, but it seemed like an obvious move, particularly since the last out was Gurriel, a right handed hitter. John Gibbons isn't a good manager.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Apr 26, 2018 14:00:08 GMT -5
Can anyone explain to me why the Blue Jays did not pinch hit with Granderson against Kimbrel in the 9th inning let night? I am glad they didn't, but it seemed like an obvious move, particularly since the last out was Gurriel, a right handed hitter. Gibbons had him on-deck when the game ended. Was going to pinch-hit him if they got a runner on. Truly bizarre thinking. Maybe, he thought they were down 2?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 26, 2018 14:19:23 GMT -5
Can anyone explain to me why the Blue Jays did not pinch hit with Granderson against Kimbrel in the 9th inning let night? I am glad they didn't, but it seemed like an obvious move, particularly since the last out was Gurriel, a right handed hitter. John Gibbons isn't a good manager. After I posted the relief stats, I had a question / idea. Measure the usage of each reliever by multiplying batters faced by adjusted leverage. What's the correlation of usage to quality (average of expected and actual effectiveness) overall? How about team by team? The overall correlation for all relievers (weighted by batters faced) was just .26. The Red Sox are at .49. (*) So Cora is doing a much better job than average of giving his most important relief plate appearances to his relievers who have been most effective. Where does he rank among the 30 teams? Who knows? I'm not that crazy. Yet. (But this isn't just because Kimbrel has been good while a lot of closers haven't been. Without him, it's still .36.) * If you include just the 209 guys in my original sample (Johnson and Poyner missed the 30 TBF cutoff by 1 batter faced, Velazquez by 4), overall it's .24 and the Sox are .47. So my methodology isn't skewed by extreme performances by scrubs. That's the beauty of weighted correlations, a stat I invented myself (probably re-invented) since baseball data is so unusual -- it's samples of samples.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 26, 2018 15:36:31 GMT -5
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Post by swingingbunt on Apr 26, 2018 15:39:35 GMT -5
Austin got a game knocked off his suspension. I literally laughed out loud when I saw it.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 26, 2018 16:32:15 GMT -5
Austin got a game knocked off his suspension. I literally laughed out loud when I saw it. [ My (and apparently Pedro's) paranoia about NY bias towards Boston is not a conspiracy theory. It is logical. MLB is based in NY. Baseball media companies are based in NY. The large ad agencies which support baseball are based in NY. Those who staff these organizations are or have become New Yorkers. The talking heads are New Yorkers. The man deciding suspensions is a New Yorker and former NYFY. Broadway's most successful play about baseball was "Damn Yankees". Jimmy Stewart and William Bendix played for NY. The Dodgers are still fondly remembered as from Brooklyn despite the LAD having the oldest stadium (1962) behind Comisky. The umpires reviewing challenged plays are doing so from NY. Hubris and bias are inevitable MLB's love affair with the NYFY and all things NY is long standing. Boston is the NYFY longest standing rival, a team which, according to NY fans, sucks. NYC has a population larger than New England's. Boston is merely a very big, very historic, and very intelligent college town, which teams beat up on the big and rich NY teams with regularity. New Yorkers involved in baseball (football, hockey, basketball, etc.) are happy to do their part in helping NY win. Is it really possible that this is an untenable position to take following Austin's intentionally dangerous slide into 2B and subsequent charging the mound followed by throwing equally dangerous haymakers vs. Kelly's hitting him in a safe place, and the suspensions incurred? Is it really too much to ask, once again, The fate of the 2 NYFY fan lawyers who broke law by breaking the seal of the court-sealed results of the original MLB sample drug test, and intentionally released to the public that Papi's test was tainted? I have no axe to grind against New York. Its social, political, spiritual, intellectual, culinary and artistic values are similar to those of Boston and other great American cities, and my own. NYC is a wonderful place. But the bias against the Red Sox and other teams is as inevitable as it is obvious. Because MLB is, in fact, NYFY centric it must take great pains to be fair to the other 29 teams, including the Mets. Unfortunately, this is often not the case.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 26, 2018 16:55:09 GMT -5
Austin got a game knocked off his suspension. I literally laughed out loud when I saw it. [ My (and apparently Pedro's) paranoia about NY bias towards Boston is not a conspiracy theory. It is logical. MLB is based in NY. Baseball media companies are based in NY. The large ad agencies which support baseball are based in NY. Those who staff these organizations are or have become New Yorkers. The talking heads are New Yorkers. The man deciding suspensions is a New Yorker and former NYFY. Broadway's most successful play about baseball was "Damn Yankees". Jimmy Stewart and William Bendix played for NY. The Dodgers are still fondly remembered as from Brooklyn despite the LAD having the oldest stadium (1962) behind Comisky. The umpires reviewing challenged plays are doing so from NY. Hubris and bias are inevitable MLB's love affair with the NYFY and all things NY is long standing. Boston is the NYFY longest standing rival, a team which, according to NY fans, sucks. NYC has a population larger than New England's. Boston is merely a very big, very historic, and very intelligent college town, which teams beat up on the big and rich NY teams with regularity. New Yorkers involved in baseball (football, hockey, basketball, etc.) are happy to do their part in helping NY win. Is it really possible that this is an untenable position to take following Austin's intentionally dangerous slide into 2B and subsequent charging the mound followed by throwing equally dangerous haymakers vs. Kelly's hitting him in a safe place, and the suspensions incurred? Is it really too much to ask, once again, The fate of the 2 NYFY fan lawyers who broke law by breaking the seal of the court-sealed results of the original MLB sample drug test, and intentionally released to the public that Papi's test was tainted? I have no axe to grind against New York. Its social, political, spiritual, intellectual, culinary and artistic values are similar to those of Boston and other great American cities, and my own. NYC is a wonderful place. But the bias against the Red Sox and other teams is as inevitable as it is obvious. Because MLB is, in fact, NYFY centric it must take great pains to be fair to the other 29 teams, including the Mets. Unfortunately, this is often not the case. This is why we don't have automated strike zones yet. They're still working on how to build in Yankee-bias and Red Sox-hatred in a way that people won't be able to obviously see. It's easy to blame umpires for being inconsistent, but not nearly as easy to blame automated strike zones for being inconsistent.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 26, 2018 18:23:18 GMT -5
MLB is really something else when it comes to the Yankees.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 26, 2018 18:24:19 GMT -5
And what is going on with Sale ? are his peripherals the same as last year ? He isn't the same pitcher this year, thus far.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 26, 2018 18:29:29 GMT -5
My brother Pedro....did you see that running catch by JD ? Even a broken clock is right 2x a day.... and all.....right !!
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