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5/14-5/16 Red Sox vs. Athletics Series Thread
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 15, 2018 23:00:38 GMT -5
Brockstar
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Post by redsoxfan209 on May 15, 2018 23:01:09 GMT -5
Holt needs to play more.
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Post by Coreno on May 15, 2018 23:06:39 GMT -5
The prognosis on the Sox isn't good. They have Chris Sale and three number 3 or 4 starters. Pomeranz looks like he's a number 7 starter this year with his diminished stuff at the number 5 spot in the rotation. They just lost one of their late inning relievers and their farm system has been decimated the past 9 months. Their catching position is a black hole. I hope they can stay in the division, but I just don't know. Sheesh. The hot take machine keeps pumping.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 15, 2018 23:09:25 GMT -5
Uninspired. Now starting to play down to their competition.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 15, 2018 23:10:20 GMT -5
The prognosis on the Sox isn't good. They have Chris Sale and three number 3 or 4 starters. Pomeranz looks like he's a number 7 starter this year with his diminished stuff at the number 5 spot in the rotation. They just lost one of their late inning relievers and their farm system has been decimated the past 9 months. Their catching position is a black hole. I hope they can stay in the division, but I just don't know. Sheesh. The hot take machine keeps pumping. It's not a hot take. What part of what I said isn't true?
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 15, 2018 23:16:20 GMT -5
Team has really been different since they were no hit...scored 10 runs on April 30, but otherwise they are in the 4 or 5 range. Which should be enough when the pitching staff is working well (which it isn't).
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Post by jbuttah on May 15, 2018 23:20:12 GMT -5
Sheesh. The hot take machine keeps pumping. It's not a hot take. What part of what I said isn't true? If anything, it seems like a slightly optimistic view. Besides Sale, no other starter seems consistently able to go past 5 innings. Porcello every now and then maybe. I'd describe AnyCatcher, Nunez and Bradly as super massive black holes. So now you have to play a barely adequate at Fenway, Martinez in the field and keep giving at bats to a regular black hole in Ramirez, who at this rate will be on the team next year. For all the resources DD has put into the next 2 years, this team has alot of holes and is no match for Astros/Yankees. There in a position where they have to hope to get help from unexpected sources, like Beeks or Shawaryn being a solid starter as soon as this year. Or like Kelly being converted back to starting. Not a good place to be.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 15, 2018 23:40:27 GMT -5
It's not a hot take. What part of what I said isn't true? If anything, it seems like a slightly optimistic view. Besides Sale, no other starter seems consistently able to go past 5 innings. Porcello every now and then maybe. I'd describe AnyCatcher, Nunez and Bradly as super massive black holes. So now you have to play a barely adequate at Fenway, Martinez in the field and keep giving at bats to a regular black hole in Ramirez, who at this rate will be on the team next year. For all the resources DD has put into the next 2 years, this team has alot of holes and is no match for Astros/Yankees. There in a position where they have to hope to get help from unexpected sources, like Beeks or Shawaryn being a solid starter as soon as this year. Or like Kelly being converted back to starting. Not a good place to be. The Sox aren't going to get much from Beeks or Shawaryn this year. Maybe Beeks goes to the bullpen, but who knows? The one unknown that can help the Sox is actually Stephen Wright. If his knuckle ball is nasty this year, then maybe he can step up behind Sale in the rotation. Another unknown is Thornburg. If he can turn into a 8th inning force all over again, then the optics are looking up again. Those are two huge questions though.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
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Post by ericmvan on May 16, 2018 4:07:55 GMT -5
Without RISP they were 8/26, BB, 4 2B, HR.
They were 2/12 with RISP, and neither of the hits resulted in a run. In fact, the first resulted in Benny overrunning 3B and ending the inning.
(910 vs. 333 OPS, if you care.)
Sabermetric wisdom says that such things are all or nearly all luck. I've noticed that they do seem to run in streaks, but I'm not sure whether that's real or not.
You have to go back to April 29 and 30 to find two games in a row with good RISP hitting. Going backwards in time ... (and note that the proper way to do this is to compare it with non-RISP hitting, which I'm not doing)
[2/14]
2/7, GDP
2/9, 2 BB, GDP
4/7, 2B, HR (game 2 of the Jays series) 0/7 1/8 0/6, SF, IBB 2/7, 3B 3/7, 2B, HR, BB (6-1 at Texas, Leon HR)
2/8, BB, SF, GDP 0/2 2/13, BB, 2B, SF 1/4 3/9 4/10, HR, 2 BB, SF (10-6 over the Royals, Xander GS)
3/8, BB, HBP, SF (4-3 comeback against the rays)
In the long run, they tend to even out. If this is driven by team frame of mind (I'm agnostic or skeptical), we're overdue for a change.
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Post by incandenza on May 16, 2018 9:46:11 GMT -5
Without RISP they were 8/26, BB, 4 2B, HR.
They were 2/12 with RISP, and neither of the hits resulted in a run. In fact, the first resulted in Benny overrunning 3B and ending the inning.
(910 vs. 333 OPS, if you care.)
Sabermetric wisdom says that such things are all or nearly all luck. I've noticed that they do seem to run in streaks, but I'm not sure whether that's real or not.
Having your best hitter bat leadoff, and behind 2 of the 7 worst hitters in the league by wRC+ (min. 100 PAs) is not bad luck, it's criminal negligence. And it certainly doesn't help the RISP situation.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 16, 2018 13:56:52 GMT -5
Sheesh. The hot take machine keeps pumping. It's not a hot take. What part of what I said isn't true? The Red Sox rank 2nd in runs just 8 behind the Yankees and rank 9th in ERA just a head of the Yankees. Those are facts. Baseball is a very long season and teams get hot and cold. It was a hot take because your just looking at them during a cold stretch and forgetting what they looked like when they were hot. It's the exact same thing you just did with the Cavs. You only kept looking at the Toronto series and forget the Pacers series and how they played all year. We won't really know how good or bad this team is for a couple more months.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 16, 2018 14:15:28 GMT -5
It's not a hot take. What part of what I said isn't true? The Red Sox rank 2nd in runs just 8 behind the Yankees and rank 9th in ERA just a head of the Yankees. Those are facts. Baseball is a very long season and teams get hot and cold. It was a hot take because your just looking at them during a cold stretch and forgetting what they looked like when they were hot. It's the exact same thing you just did with the Cavs. You only kept looking at the Toronto series and forget the Pacers series and how they played all year. We won't really know how good or bad this team is for a couple more months. No I pointed out the injury situations, the state of the farm. The pitching staff as a whole. I didn't even give much of a opinion. None of it was a hot take. I don't know how basketball has to do with anything in this conversation, it's pointless to mix both threads.
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Post by James Dunne on May 16, 2018 14:16:28 GMT -5
What temp would you say it was
Possible we just have different definitions of "hot."
My wife enjoys an 80 degree day but I find that much too warm for my tastes, whereas I will be outside in a shortsleeve shirt when it is 55, whilst she would likely be wearing a sweatshirt.
Seems like this could all be a misunderstanding.
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Post by jimed14 on May 16, 2018 14:19:21 GMT -5
It's more that assumptions are being made that the players who aren't playing up to their potential are permanently broken and will never return to their career averages which is just plain wrong.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 16, 2018 14:19:22 GMT -5
Just a lukewarm feel of the team. Price looks like a solid number 3. Porcello looks like a solid 3 or 4. Eduardo looks like a solid 4 and Pomeranz looks bad with his lack of velocity.
This team's strength is supposed to be it's starting pitching and outside of Sale, it doesn't look as strong as it could be.
This team is solid, but maybe not as good as we thought it was.
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Post by James Dunne on May 16, 2018 14:28:57 GMT -5
No I mean what temperature. Like a number.
Some think it is hot but you don't so I think we're just in that gray area where it's all just a misunderstanding.
Like maybe a 75 degree take? That's a temperature that some would find hot but others not particularly so.
EDIT: Fahrenheit, obviously. Like WAR, we should be labeling our units of measure. Would hate to think I'm contributing to this communication gap.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 16, 2018 14:33:25 GMT -5
A perfect 68 degrees. Lukewarm.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 16, 2018 14:43:02 GMT -5
Not that ERA is great at judging pitchers, but our top 4 are all in the top 75 in ERA. While also being in the top 75 in WHIP. ERod for example is 46th in WHIP among starters and you think he's a number 4 pitcher? You really think Porcello who is top 34 in both ERA and WHIP is a number 3 or 4 type pitcher? He's also 13th in innings pitched. The numbers say otherwise.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 16, 2018 14:54:05 GMT -5
Not that ERA is great at judging pitchers, but our top 4 are all in the top 75 in ERA. While also being in the top 75 in WHIP. ERod for example is 46th in WHIP among starters and you think he's a number 4 pitcher? You really think Porcello who is top 34 in both ERA and WHIP is a number 3 or 4 type pitcher? He's also 13th in innings pitched. The numbers say otherwise. Porcello is already regressing to the mean. It's nice that they got off to nice starts, but Porcello and Eduardo are what they are really. Solid pitchers overall but mid rotation types. The one outlier I like is Stephen Wright. He could be a number 2 starter if he's right, I could see him replacing Pomeranz in the rotation by mid season.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 16, 2018 15:17:53 GMT -5
Not that ERA is great at judging pitchers, but our top 4 are all in the top 75 in ERA. While also being in the top 75 in WHIP. ERod for example is 46th in WHIP among starters and you think he's a number 4 pitcher? You really think Porcello who is top 34 in both ERA and WHIP is a number 3 or 4 type pitcher? He's also 13th in innings pitched. The numbers say otherwise. Porcello is already regressing to the mean. It's nice that they got off to nice starts, but Porcello and Eduardo are what they are really. Solid pitchers overall but mid rotation types. The one outlier I like is Stephen Wright. He could be a number 2 starter if he's right, I could see him replacing Pomeranz in the rotation by mid season. Pedro this is exactly what we're talking about. Sure Porcello had two bad starts, but you are just focusing on those and forgetting his 7 other starts. We have no idea how he does the rest of the season. EROD has basically never been a 4 starter, so I have no clue what you are talking about. Go look at the league and where these guys stand. Show me the 90 better starters than ERod. Not sure you fully understand what a league average #3 and #4 starter look like. What are you basing this off of, the last few games?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 16, 2018 15:34:27 GMT -5
Porcello is already regressing to the mean. It's nice that they got off to nice starts, but Porcello and Eduardo are what they are really. Solid pitchers overall but mid rotation types. The one outlier I like is Stephen Wright. He could be a number 2 starter if he's right, I could see him replacing Pomeranz in the rotation by mid season. Pedro this is exactly what we're talking about. Sure Porcello had two bad starts, but you are just focusing on those and forgetting his 7 other starts. We have no idea how he does the rest of the season. EROD has basically never been a 4 starter, so I have no clue what you are talking about. Go look at the league and where these guys stand. Show me the 90 better starters than ERod. Not sure you fully understand what a league average #3 and #4 starter look like. What are you basing this off of, the last few games? Porcello has a career ERA over 4.17 in his time in Boston. Eduardo Rodriguez has a career ERA of 4.28 in his time in Boston. If anything, I'm not using any of the first month or two of the season and making my judgements based off that. It's nice that they are off to nice starts. I'm not doing what you say I'm doing.
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Post by jimed14 on May 16, 2018 15:45:13 GMT -5
ERod was hitting 98 in the start before last and doesn't have a pitch tipping problem or a kneecap that dislocates when walking anymore. Saying that he's a 4.28 ERA pitcher is being overly pessimistic.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 16, 2018 15:57:34 GMT -5
Until Eduardo has a healthy season it's okay to be skeptical. He has hit 98 mph in past years. It's okay to look at his career body of work and make judgments on it.
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Post by jimed14 on May 16, 2018 16:08:52 GMT -5
Then explain why you'd include his pitch tipping disastrous starts in all previous years to describe his ability today? Because you think he's just going to go back and tip his pitches again?
Nevermind, you're always right.
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Post by braziliansox on May 16, 2018 16:18:57 GMT -5
JBJ was put in the doghouse but Nunez can play below replacement level for as long as he wants? Holt deserves more starts.
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