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5/25-5/27 Red Sox vs. Braves Series Thread
ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
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Post by ericmvan on May 27, 2018 2:02:14 GMT -5
Interesting facts:
The Sox are just 3-3 in late inning comebacks (team below 25% Win Probability 7th or later, and winning). They had the opening day loss, the 13-inning loss to the Royals May 1 when Kimbrel blew the save, and the May 9 Yankees loss when they went to Kimbrel in the 8th and Gardner smoked him. Against that, they have the two comebacks against the Rays, the home opener (Xander 2-out double in the 9th to tie it, Hanley walk-off single in the 12th) and the series finale (6 hits and 6 runs with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th), and the May 5 game in Texas (Rangers had 2nd and 3rd with no out in a 5-5 tie, bottom 8th; Kelly fanned Gallo and Profar with bases loaded, and Benny tripled and scored on Hanley's SF in the top of the 9th).
But they are 5-0 in early comebacks. In fact, they've come back from below 25% early eight times without the opposite ever happening. They were down that low early in the May 5 game before coming back and tying it, so this would count as an early comeback instead of a late inning one if they hadn't gotten into the 8th inning jam. And they had come back from early deficits in both the Royals loss and the second Yankee loss.
So after Kelly and Smith's opening opening day meltdown, the long and setup relief has been almost flawless in regulation (in terms of ultimate wins vs. losses*), the only stain being Barnes putting the two runners on that Gardner knocked in. So why do people think we need to add a bullpen arm? (Admittedly, that's more on talk radio than here.)
The early comebacks that resulted in wins:
4/20 in Oakland, down 3-0 in the first in Pomeranz's debut, JBJ ties it with a 3-run bomb in the next half-inning. 4/29 vs TB, down 3-0 after 5, tie it in the 6th (big hit 2-RBI JDM 1B), score in the 8th. 4/30 vs KC, down 3-0 in the first with the bases full and 1 out, E-Rod gets Gordon to GDP, Xander caps the comeback with a 3rd-inning slam. 5/2 vs KC, down 3-0 in the 3rd with runners on the corner and 0 out, tie it in the bottom half on Betts and JDM homers, win it when Mookie homers twice more. today, down 3-0 in the 3rd. Three of these 5 were Pomeranz starts (the other being 5/2).
I had no idea that all 5 of these were from 3-0 deficits until I looked them up!
It's interesting how these cluster: 4/20, 4/29, 4/30, 5/1, 5/2, 5/5, 5/9 (four games in a row and 6 out of 10) ... 5/26. In fact, there were no comebacks of any sort between 5/9 and 5/26; every game was won by the team that got to 75% first.
* Matt Barnes has had only two other bad outings all year, in extra innings 4/3 in Miami (allowing the game to be re-tied in the 11th) and in his next outing, against the Yankees when he allowed 2 runs after we'd closed from trailing 8-1 to 8-6.
Joe Kelly has had one statistically bad outing since opening day, when he failed to clean up Hembree's mess in NYC on 5/10, blowing a 4-0 lead thanks to a walk, a seeing-eye single, and a WP. But after JDM homered off Betances, he pitched a scoreless 8th.
Velazquez's bad outing today was only his second, the other being when he relieved Price in Texas 5/3 trailing 6-3 and gave up a 3-run jack to Mazara.
And Hembree has turned it around again. This is xWP- / WP-:
3/31 to 4/27 (11 G), 58 / 33 4/28 to 5/10 (6 G), 199 / 222. All bad.
5/13 to 5/25 (6 G), 58 / 21
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 27, 2018 3:27:42 GMT -5
In terms of who eventually (hopefully come to your senses Cora unless your hand is being forced here) will replace Pomeranz in the rotation, I'm almost 99 percent sure it'll be Wright over Beeks. Wright is ahead of Beeks in terms of the depth chart here. Beeks will get his shot eventually either this year or next year.
It's not a bad thing that he'll build innings in AAA this year so he could be ready for a full workload next year in the minors and majors next year.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 27, 2018 7:07:21 GMT -5
At 36-16 I think the Sox can afford some time on the Pomeranz decision. They are trying to find out what the guy has this year. The 2017 upside is too tempting to just give in to and start reshuffling the deck.
Regarding Kelly. I hope the Sox look at him as future closer, can't believe that after all the BS from the guy the last couple of years. I love Kimbrel, but think he will be too expensive for the Sox to extend.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 27, 2018 8:03:36 GMT -5
Its been two months, at least DL Pomeranz because his 85 mph fastball against Houston would be throwing a game down the toilet.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 27, 2018 8:44:19 GMT -5
Its been two months, at least DL Pomeranz because his 85 mph fastball against Houston would be throwing a game down the toilet. that's one way of looking at it and very reasonable. I look at it like great teams lose 70 games a year and a start against a great lineup like Houston is the kind of challenge that could help him.
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Post by Guidas on May 27, 2018 9:03:31 GMT -5
Its been two months, at least DL Pomeranz because his 85 mph fastball against Houston would be throwing a game down the toilet. that's one way of looking at it and very reasonable. I look at it like great teams lose 70 games a year and a start against a great lineup like Houston is the kind of challenge that could help him. I would think any game would be a challenge to help him at this point. He just doesn't have the control and velo on his FB that he had last year. It may be mechanical, it may be something else. Whatever it is it has left him well below the quality you need for an MLB starter when you have Wright and Velasquez on the roster.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 27, 2018 9:17:17 GMT -5
Its been two months, at least DL Pomeranz because his 85 mph fastball against Houston would be throwing a game down the toilet. that's one way of looking at it and very reasonable. I look at it like great teams lose 70 games a year and a start against a great lineup like Houston is the kind of challenge that could help him. Sorry Jerry but I disagree. Good teams lose 70 games a year not great teams and I really don't see how a team like Houston and that challenge makes a difference for a guy like Pomeranz at the moment. He should be challenged and motivated enough to be who he has been in the past, if he doesn't have it how does it just appear based on the opponent? I would give him one or two more starts and if he doesn't show some sign that he is improving I would phantom DL him and then go to rehab with the Pawsox until he does or put him in the BP to see if he can find it there. These games matter and the Sox can't be afraid to make the tough decisions. Who knows he could come back and be big in the second half but something isn't right at this point. Going into a slump is one thing, that happens but losing your velocity is another. Heck his whip is approaching 2 and you have guys, Wright and Veazquez, sitting there who are much better right now.
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Post by bluechip on May 27, 2018 9:49:06 GMT -5
Its been two months, at least DL Pomeranz because his 85 mph fastball against Houston would be throwing a game down the toilet. If his 4 seamer velocity is 85, then there is likely something physically wrong with him. I would not shock me to learn that a pending free agent with mediocre medicals is trying to play through a physical ailment.
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Post by patford on May 27, 2018 11:02:47 GMT -5
Its been two months, at least DL Pomeranz because his 85 mph fastball against Houston would be throwing a game down the toilet. If his 4 seamer velocity is 85, then there is likely something physically wrong with him. I would not shock me to learn that a pending free agent with mediocre medicals is trying to play through a physical ailment. Other reports indicate he was up to 90-91 a few times. I didn't see that myself. I was looking at the game on TV and also looking at the ESPN Gamecast which uses a graphic identifying the type of pitch, it's speed and it's location. What I saw was all four seam FBs at 84-85. He was not missing badly. It looked like he was nibbling just off the plate. His most effective pitches were knuckle curves.
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Post by jdb on May 27, 2018 11:17:24 GMT -5
It really is painful to watch him. Hopefully he pulls it together and can win us some games and cash in next offseason. I was hoping for a compl pick for him but it isn’t looking good.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 27, 2018 11:35:08 GMT -5
Challenge is probably the wrong word, I am probably holding on to wishful thinking. Throw him to the wolves.....we need all W's we can get (half kidding)
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Post by telson13 on May 27, 2018 12:02:54 GMT -5
In terms of who eventually (hopefully come to your senses Cora unless your hand is being forced here) will replace Pomeranz in the rotation, I'm almost 99 percent sure it'll be Wright over Beeks. Wright is ahead of Beeks in terms of the depth chart here. Beeks will get his shot eventually either this year or next year. It's not a bad thing that he'll build innings in AAA this year so he could be ready for a full workload next year in the minors and majors next year. I think you’re right, but I still think they need to look at Beeks ASAP, be it as a starter or in a temporary break-in relief role (where I’m pretty confident he’d be good to excellent). But yeah, they’re flush with starters and Wright is next in line. About your point on Kimbrel, I feel the same way. He’s terrific, maybe not at his pure dominant best, but still outstanding. But his HR problem is absolutely a thing. And that’s why I think they need to extend Kelly immediately. Take away the first outing of the year, and Kelly has a 0.38 ERA and peripherals not far behind. He gets tons of grounders, has been inducing some weak contact, is missing bats at a career-high rate (over 11% SwStr rate), and he has command of all of his pitches, finally. There isn’t anyone I trust more on this staff to come into a bases-loaded, no-out situation with a one-run lead late in the game. Kelly’s owned those situations. And most importantly, he has a clear, reproducible ability to limit home runs. He just basically *never* coughs them up. He’s been their best reliever, and I’m not sure it’s really *that* close. Kimbrel might be a better bet longer-term, but that’s a bet I’d take with $90M on the line.
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Post by carmenfanzone on May 27, 2018 12:14:04 GMT -5
Its been two months, at least DL Pomeranz because his 85 mph fastball against Houston would be throwing a game down the toilet. that's one way of looking at it and very reasonable. I look at it like great teams lose 70 games a year and a start against a great lineup like Houston is the kind of challenge that could help him. If the Red Sox were in the Central Division and 10 plus games ahead of the Indians I might agree with you, but they are not. Unless something unforeseen happens, the Yankees are not going to lose 70 games. If the Red Sox let Pomeranz start another two games and lose those two games and the Yankees finish ahead of them by one game, it is going to be a very costly gesture. Perhaps if the wild card winner got to play in a 5 game series like they did a few years ago, perhaps winning the division wouldn't matter so much. But today with the wild card winner playing the other ild card winner one game to decide who advances, it matters a lot. I do not want to see this team win 99 games and then lose the wild card game and be done for the year. They need to win the division and continuing to send Pomeranz out there when he is clearly not right is not helping. Put him on the DL and work to get him right and then bring him back. Wright was an All Star the last year he was healthy. Lets see if he still is while we try to get Pomeranz back on track.
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 27, 2018 12:16:35 GMT -5
Chris Sale is just so much fun to watch. Great first inning.
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Post by patford on May 27, 2018 12:25:07 GMT -5
Chris Sale is just so much fun to watch. Great first inning. Eight pitch walks to the lead off man kind of take the fun out of it for me.
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Post by incandenza on May 27, 2018 12:29:54 GMT -5
Chris Sale is just so much fun to watch. Great first inning. Eight pitch walks to the lead off man kind of take the fun out of it for me. For me it's the 3-run dingers.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 27, 2018 12:31:41 GMT -5
Wow Sale getting rocked this inning. I know he's human, but I still get shocked by it when it happens.
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 27, 2018 12:32:04 GMT -5
Chris Sale is just so much fun to watch. Great first inning. Eight pitch walks to the lead off man kind of take the fun out of it for me. Then you must have been miserable yesterday watching Pomeranz trying to get people out. This is such a contrast that it makes it really easy to appreciate him and his fast and efficient work (three run homer aside).
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Post by Guidas on May 27, 2018 12:56:00 GMT -5
Wow Sale getting rocked this inning. I know he's human, but I still get shocked by it when it happens. Not sure why you throw anyone a strike up 0-2 like he did to Flowers. Just a mental error there.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 27, 2018 13:00:57 GMT -5
Once again - it is early - Braves young pitcher's count is up already- we will get to the pen. Feeling good about our ability to come back yet again (though wish Mookie were in the line up of course)
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 27, 2018 13:20:12 GMT -5
That’s the ugliest defensive play I’ve ever seen JBJ make.
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Post by swooptech on May 27, 2018 13:20:54 GMT -5
I know it’s one play- but when you’re batting under .200 you really can’t afford to be making those sort of terrible plays in the field.
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bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on May 27, 2018 13:25:45 GMT -5
Once again - it is early - Braves young pitcher's count is up already- we will get to the pen. Feeling good about our ability to come back yet again (though wish Mookie were in the line up of course) This one is getting out of hand. At least they took the series. Not the best of days for Sale.
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Post by 180054giant on May 27, 2018 13:27:31 GMT -5
Karma for not televising the alumni game.
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Post by Don Caballero on May 27, 2018 13:27:53 GMT -5
So raise your hands if you saw them only losing the Sale start this series.
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