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2018 Draft Signing Period
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Post by ramireja on Jun 15, 2018 16:23:38 GMT -5
I'm sure someone in the Red Sox front office has done the math and that they don't need the slot money to sign Northcutt or Decker, so I'll take my initial concern and save it for some other day. Aside from that, how does a 7th round pick with almost no leverage get full slot value? Is this a pretty solid indicator that they're not signing any other 11-40 draft picks for above $125k? Duran is a college junior, not a senior, and its not uncommon for us to sign a junior in this range at full slot. With regard to the pool, we've heard both Northcut and Decker's signing figures (although I suppose subject to change based on physicals and until the Sox announce them). With the 5% wiggle room and savings from Brown, Williams, and Cottam, we already know that we can afford those bonuses. Plus there is Elih Marerro who we expect to sign for underslot but by how much is an open question. My last time crunching the estimated numbers allowed us to sign Decker and Northcut at their current reported figures with an additional 200-250K to spend elsewhere (Howlett, Machamer, etc.).
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Post by geostorm on Jun 15, 2018 16:29:46 GMT -5
Not sure if this is redundant
Alex Speier Retweeted Pete Abraham Verified account @peteabe 2m2 minutes ago
#RedSox confirm 5 draft signings:
Catcher Kole Cottam (4th round), RHP Thaddeus Ward (5th round), 3B Nick Northcut (11th round), OF Dylan Hardy (13th round), and SS Korby Batesole (26th round). Cottam, Ward, Hardy, and Batesole will report to Lowell. Northcut goes to the GCL
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Post by geostorm on Jun 15, 2018 16:37:11 GMT -5
I just return from there, myself, and I appreciate you, SoxProspects team, and just made that "tangible", belatedly, but gratefully!
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Post by geostorm on Jun 15, 2018 16:46:25 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 15, 2018 16:49:05 GMT -5
I'm sure someone in the Red Sox front office has done the math and that they don't need the slot money to sign Northcutt or Decker, so I'll take my initial concern and save it for some other day. Aside from that, how does a 7th round pick with almost no leverage get full slot value? Is this a pretty solid indicator that they're not signing any other 11-40 draft picks for above $125k? Go to the draft tracker and look at the players rankings. He was taken 220 and two places ranked him 170 and 317. Sure those rankings aren't the greatest, just the best we have. For a junior to be way underslot I wouldn't have expected him to be ranked at all or maybe late on one list. Being on two lists that high shows you he's a quality prospect. So this isn't surprising and frankly seems like a good deal. Quality pick at a very fair price.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 15, 2018 16:52:37 GMT -5
I can't wait to hear the full Northcut story. It's great we got him for basically slot money based on his ranking. Just weird he signed so quickly for that after having dropped so far.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 15, 2018 17:15:18 GMT -5
I can't wait to hear the full Northcut story. It's great we got him for basically slot money based on his ranking. Just weird he signed so quickly for that after having dropped so far. It's third-round money. Bird in hand vs. bird in bush. He also might just not have a very strong interest in going to college. You never know what goes into the decision for a guy. Nick Longhi, for example, would've gone to college had he been drafted by any other team, but he grew up a Red Sox fan and wanted to join the organization (the fact that he was later traded is exactly why I'd tell a draftee this is not a good reason to sign, but to each their own).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 15, 2018 17:38:56 GMT -5
I can't wait to hear the full Northcut story. It's great we got him for basically slot money based on his ranking. Just weird he signed so quickly for that after having dropped so far. It's third-round money. Bird in hand vs. bird in bush. He also might just not have a very strong interest in going to college. You never know what goes into the decision for a guy. Nick Longhi, for example, would've gone to college had he been drafted by any other team, but he grew up a Red Sox fan and wanted to join the organization (the fact that he was later traded is exactly why I'd tell a draftee this is not a good reason to sign, but to each their own). Given his rankings for him to fall that far he had to be seen as a hard to sign guy. Yet he wasn't. So thats what I can't wait to hear. Did he change his mind, was it just he loves the Red Sox, or did they have this worked out pre-draft. I feel there's a story there.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 15, 2018 22:38:32 GMT -5
I'm sure someone in the Red Sox front office has done the math and that they don't need the slot money to sign Northcutt or Decker, so I'll take my initial concern and save it for some other day. Aside from that, how does a 7th round pick with almost no leverage get full slot value? Is this a pretty solid indicator that they're not signing any other 11-40 draft picks for above $125k? Go to the draft tracker and look at the players rankings. He was taken 220 and two places ranked him 170 and 317. Sure those rankings aren't the greatest, just the best we have. For a junior to be way underslot I wouldn't have expected him to be ranked at all or maybe late on one list. Being on two lists that high shows you he's a quality prospect. So this isn't surprising and frankly seems like a good deal. Quality pick at a very fair price. Agreed. He’s talented and could always go back to school. Perfectly reasonable pick who should get slot. He’s very fast, and I thought I read that he has an average arm, so I think a move to CF is a great idea. He’s certainly a guy whose hit tool (I just love those hit tool picks) should give him some value even if he doesn’t develop power-wise. Solid OBPs and a little gap/LD power, provided he has the defensive value that would go with being able to convert that speed into quality range (we’ll see about his routes) suggest a sleeper pick to me. I think if the CF conversion goes well he could be a valuable 4th OF or even potentially a 2nd division starter. That’s great value in rd 7.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 16, 2018 3:09:53 GMT -5
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Post by splendidsplinter on Jun 16, 2018 9:05:20 GMT -5
Good info on Duran and how it impacts the rest of the draft class, thanks all. I did miss that Duron was ranked. The quest for Duran Duran finally ends.
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Post by tnyankee556 on Jun 16, 2018 10:00:34 GMT -5
Good info on Duran and how it impacts the rest of the draft class, thanks all. I did miss that Duron was ranked. The quest for Duran Duran finally ends. We can only hope that Duran Duran's time with the Sox, he will always remain " Hungry Like The Wolf". 😁
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 16, 2018 11:07:46 GMT -5
Brian Brown got $2,500 as well.
Sox have currently spent $4,437,200. Cap +5% is $6,009,465. So they have $1,572,265 remaining. Decker is reportedly getting $1,250,000 of that, leaving $322,265 for Marrero (slot: $157,700) and anyone else. And of course, that total goes up if Marrero signs for under slot.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 16, 2018 17:54:07 GMT -5
Hey Mookie Betts is a speedy hit-tool guy, without a lot of power, but great hands/wrists... we just make all second basemen pick up bowling and move them to the OF.
This made me look up Wendell Rijo, who apparently was traded (today?) but looks to have peaked in 2015 in Salem.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 17, 2018 19:45:36 GMT -5
I was a little bummed to see Duran at 2b (Brannen in CF), but two triples and a double is an awfully nice debut.
Based on their maybe 300k excess depending on Marrero, gotta hope they can net at least one and maybe two later-round quality talents.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 17, 2018 19:53:54 GMT -5
I was a little bummed to see Duran at 2b (Brannen in CF), but two triples and a double is an awfully nice debut. Based on their maybe 300k excess depending on Marrero, gotta hope they can net at least one and maybe two later-round quality talents. This might be a stupid prediction, but I really like the potential of Casas, Decker, and Northcutt, and Feltman, and I think Granberg and Duran are sneaky good draft picks. Even Kottam is interesting. So stupid prediction time - I think this will be the Sox best draft since 2011. There won't be a Mookie in this bunch, but they'll have a lot of quality and quantity, but there won't be any starting pitchers from this draft that amount to anything - at least I don't think so, but they seemed to be avoiding them in the draft. I'm hopeful that this draft goes a long way toward replenishing the system although Feltman aside, these guys might not be heard from until 2022 or 2023.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jun 17, 2018 20:27:11 GMT -5
This might be a stupid prediction, but I really like the potential of Casas, Decker, and Northcutt, and Feltman, and I think Granberg and Duran are sneaky good draft picks. Even Kottam is interesting. So stupid prediction time - I think this will be the Sox best draft since 2011. There won't be a Mookie in this bunch, but they'll have a lot of quality and quantity, but there won't be any starting pitchers from this draft that amount to anything - at least I don't think so, but they seemed to be avoiding them in the draft. I'm hopeful that this draft goes a long way toward replenishing the system although Feltman aside, these guys might not be heard from until 2022 or 2023. The good news is that I think as one of the few good teams in the AL, I don't think we need to trade for much, and as such shouldn't take much damage to our farm team this year.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 18, 2018 7:00:23 GMT -5
At least they finally identified arms that could help he bullpen ,instead of the usual stretch them out for starters innings and it doesn’t pan out go back to the pen. But in the meantime wasted a couple of years of developement.
I personally hate the Yankees, but the one thing they do well is they don’t screw around with drafted arms they feel are earmarked for the pen. There’s no need for the Sox to make deals to try to get high end bullpen pieces. Closers are one thing but the rest of the pen should be developed from your prospects pool. That’s one thing you should get from your drafting. It’s hard to get starting pitching and power hitters but the pen please.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jun 18, 2018 8:23:52 GMT -5
Im really liking this draft class so far. I think this front office did an especially good job drafting way out of their element. Not like they havent drafted lots before, but I mean taking the power route. Its not all that ballsy, but still is not the prototypical draft for the Sox. Anyways, I have a quick question...The Sox have been drafting a few guys each year that tend to be "soft" tossers. For example, Brad Stone and Trevor Kelley in 2015, Dominik LoBrutto and Rio Gomez in 2017, Brian Brown in 2018 etc. (Im sure there are better examples, but you get the point). Why do the Redsox draft these players in particular? Players like these tend to be in the 87-90 mph range, which is very very difficult to get by with (Bobby Poyner exception obviously). Their draft positions vary of course, but a player like Brian Brown was taken very early this year. These examples are mostly if not all college players, which means they are probably closer to being physically maxed out.
So in the end, like I had asked above, what are the Sox looking to get out of these guys in particular? I completely understand the need for senior signs, but they have an incredible amount of options still other than a finesse type player. If they are looking for someone to be a specialist type there has to be many available college options with upside that can handle this. You cant win them all, but its not like it costs extra to take a college senior specialist vs. power arm. Thanks
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 18, 2018 8:34:19 GMT -5
Just a guess, but the Sox get to fill out their 1-10 dance card with low-priced talent, the player has a role in completing the rosters for the minor leagues, he gets a chance to prove out, and the team gets slot money made available for additional signings.
It's a long shot for a player with that skillset, but as you mentioned, every once in a while there's a Poyner. The team may also have information they use that tells them stuff about that skillset that we aren't privy to.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jun 18, 2018 9:05:42 GMT -5
Thanks for the reply. Well put. I will never know even a fraction of what they do when it comes to scouting these types of players. I do know that they tend to find organizational types to fill out rosters like you said. Honestly, I didnt even think of that until you had pointed it out. In my mind I was questioning if they saw potential for more velocity or have a good build. I certainly can see them choosing a player thats in the high 80s where one tweak in their mechanics then its off to the races. Maybe they are looking to find their Charlie Blackmon 2.0 like in our 2005 draft lol. He was listed as a LHP, and now hes a stud OF. So heres to hoping Brian Brown either finds it, or hopefully pull a Charlie Blackmon haha. If not a Blackmon then maybe a Brandon Belt where he was drafted by the sox as a LHP as well.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 18, 2018 11:26:00 GMT -5
Updated projections. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Triston Casas $2,552,800 (signed for slot) 2 Nick Decker $1,250,000 (reportedly close to signing for $1.25M) 3 Durbin Feltman $559,600 (signed for slot) 4 Kole Cottam $375,000 (signed for $375,000) 5 Thad Ward $275,000 (signed for $275,000) 6 Devlin Granberg $40,000 (signed for $40,000) 7 Jarren Duran $189,900 (signed for slot)8 Elih Marrero $10,000 ( expected to sign soon for under slot) 9 Brian Brown $2,500 (signed for $2,500) 10 Grant Williams $2,500 (signed for $2,500)
After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Nick Northcutt $565,000 (signed for $565,000)12 Chase Shugart $250,000 ( still playing in College WS vs. Florida, next game on 6/19) 21 Brandon Howlett $250,000 ( expected to sign, bonus unknown) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap) 13 Dylan Hardy (signed, seemingly for $125,000 or less) 15 Andrew Politi (signed for $25,000)17 Lane Milligan ( expected to sign) 18 Eddie Jimenez ( likely to sign) 19 Jonathan Ortega (signed for $85,000)24 Logan Browning ( will sign) 25 Caleb Ramsey ( reportedly signed for $125k) 26 Korby Batesole (signed for $2,500027 Gregorio Reyes ( reportedly signed) 28 Kris Jackson ( expected to sign) Total spent towards cap using these projections: $5,947,200 Red Sox Cap: $5,723,300 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $6,009,465 On the Bubble 16 Chris Machamer (unclear, playing in the Cape League) 20 Kason Howell ( on the fence, seems more likely to go to Auburn) 22 Yusniel Padron-Artiles (no news) 23 Ryan Fernandez (no news) 31 Connor Berry (no news) 32 Bramdon Perez (no news) 33 Adrian Torres ( seems very excited to sign, but not 100%) 34 Jared Poland ( likely headed to Louisville) 35 Jeremiah Boyd ( on the fence) 37 Davis Wendzel ( playing in the Cape League, likely headed back to Baylor) 39 Shane Selman ( Draft & Follow, which means likely returning to McNeese State) Not signing 14 Nick Lucky ( had a change of heart, will be headed to Coastal Carolina) 29 Mason Ronan ( re-committed to Pitt) 30 Ryan Bliss ( will not sign, re-committed to Auburn) 36 Jake Dukart ( re-committed to Oregon State, will not sign) 38 Art Joven ( will not sign, headed to Bakersfield) 40 Zach Watson ( headed back to LSU)
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Post by telson13 on Jun 18, 2018 13:28:02 GMT -5
I was a little bummed to see Duran at 2b (Brannen in CF), but two triples and a double is an awfully nice debut. Based on their maybe 300k excess depending on Marrero, gotta hope they can net at least one and maybe two later-round quality talents. This might be a stupid prediction, but I really like the potential of Casas, Decker, and Northcutt, and Feltman, and I think Granberg and Duran are sneaky good draft picks. Even Kottam is interesting. So stupid prediction time - I think this will be the Sox best draft since 2011. There won't be a Mookie in this bunch, but they'll have a lot of quality and quantity, but there won't be any starting pitchers from this draft that amount to anything - at least I don't think so, but they seemed to be avoiding them in the draft. I'm hopeful that this draft goes a long way toward replenishing the system although Feltman aside, these guys might not be heard from until 2022 or 2023. I agree completely, right down to a terrific hitter Sr sign (Granberg) and a tooled-up (sans power) MIF. I think this draft was absolutely terrific. I think their approach and the players they targeted were genuinely excellent. I have, honestly, no complaints, and that is very unusual. I guess my only “coulda” was I wanted to see a prep/HS SS in rd 2. But I like Decker well enough. And Northcutt was an astute get. As you say, it’ll be years, but yeah...I think it’s a terrific draft.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 18, 2018 15:20:36 GMT -5
Seems pretty obvious looking at Mike's post that the big one the Sox thought they had was Lucky. Other than that everyone kinda fit in as expected so strategically, seemed like the FO did as good a job as they could given their spot/resources etc
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 18, 2018 17:15:05 GMT -5
Seems pretty obvious looking at Mike's post that the big one the Sox thought they had was Lucky. Other than that everyone kinda fit in as expected so strategically, seemed like the FO did as good a job as they could given their spot/resources etc I doubt it. He isn't even ranked by anyone that I can find. Northcut was a huge signing, equivalent to an extra 3rd round pick.
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