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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Feb 4, 2021 9:07:37 GMT -5
If Dalbec has as a similar career to Corey Dickerson or Jason Bay, that would be a huge win. Don't forget this guys floor is more like Wily Mo Pena or Chris Davis circa 2017
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 4, 2021 10:48:45 GMT -5
Eric, any chance you can post the 23-player list? Very interested in that.
There's probably some survivor's bias (very possible I'm using the wrong term) in the fact that some guys didn't get more than 70 PA, right? They were up for a short time and clearly didn't get their strikeout issues dealt with.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 4, 2021 14:55:16 GMT -5
Eric, any chance you can post the 23-player list? Very interested in that. There's probably some survivor's bias (very possible I'm using the wrong term) in the fact that some guys didn't get more than 70 PA, right? They were up for a short time and clearly didn't get their strikeout issues dealt with. Well, let's tale a quick look at the best of the others, why don't we? My spreadsheet has links to their b-ref pages; much quicker for me than you.
Player Age Year Tm PA* OPS+ K+ Jarrett Parker 26 2015 SFG 54 211 194 Tayl. Teagarden 24 2008 TEX 53 209 208 Chris Dickerson 26 2008 CIN 121 162 168 Edwin Rios 25 2019 LAD 56 162 167 Bobby Dalbec* 25 2020 BOS 92 152 180 Jason Bay 24 2003 TOT 107 145 168 Rusty Ryal 26 2009 ARI 67 140 177 Patrick Wisdom 26 2018 STL 58 139 150 Aramis Garcia 25 2018 SFG 65 119 218 Steve Selsky 26 2016 CIN 53 113 200 Ben Johnson 24 2005 SDP 86 109 166 Ben Francisco 25 2007 CLE 66 107 172 Jeff Salazar 25 2006 COL 64 106 151 Derne. Stenson* 25 2003 CIN 93 100 160 Tyler Austin* 24 2016 NYY 90 99 193 Kevin Cron 26 2019 ARI 78 97 159 Richie Shaffer 24 2015 TBR 88 95 181 Robel Garcia 26 2019 CHC 80 95 194 Drew Robinson 25 2017 TEX 121 91 163 Zack Collins* 24 2019 CHW 101 76 171 Aaron Judge* 24 2016 NYY 95 61 213 B. Lillibridge* 24 2008 ATL 84 51 159 Monte Harrison* 24 2020 MIA 51 35 216 Jayson Nix* 25 2008 COL 62 3 159 Parker went 1/9, 5 K in a June callup, then pinch hit 5 times from 9/11 to 9/19 and went 3/5, 2B, HR, 1 K. He had a 1.438 OPS in 19 PA (7 K) in the next 8 days. After that, the K rate went up just a tick (8 in 21) but the OPS was .649. Basically they figured him out and the season clock ran out before his numbers could come down. He was a 2nd round pick and was a solid to good 4th OFer for them the next two years as an up-and-down guy, then was released at the end of ST the next year.
Teagarden, a 3rd round pick as a catcher, played every day (some DH) in mid-September, and it looks like he got hurt on 9/22 (still hitting). He was Saltalamacchia's backup the next year and just never hit, basically telling the press that he needed to play regularly to do so.
Rios had a good year as the Dodger's backup 3B/1B this year. I'm moving him into the comp group ... Ryal had a crazy start to his career after an August 10 callup, 5/9, BB, 4 2B, 2 SO. He then struggled for a month, .614 OPS in 33 PA with a 188 K+, then had a strong last 22 PA (1.153 OPS) despite no real change in the K problem (180). Next year he was a busy PH / backup 1B / LF and in his first 29 PA had a 1.021 OPS with a 133 K+. After? 193 PA, .602 OPS, 172 K+ and never got back to MLB after that. So he had a strong 96 first PA ... they did have pitch/fx data at this point, but how many teams would use it to try to get a book on a guy like this? They figured him out, and the lower K rate at the start of 2010 just looks non-meaningful ... although I certainly would have pointed it out at the time! Wisdom's season as a PH, backup corner IF starting in mid-August splits into two halves, 30 and 28 PA. 1.025 OPS and 107 K+, then .745 OPS with a 196. That winter he was traded to the Rangers for Drew Robinson, a name I immediately recognized, because he's the one guy I accidentally omitted from the main list! How strange is that? I'll edit this post and the earlier one to fix that. He was up and down the next April and, 28 PA later, sporting a .377 OPS and 247 K+, the Rangers did the wise thing and sent him down for good.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 4, 2021 15:00:36 GMT -5
If Dalbec has as a similar career to Corey Dickerson or Jason Bay, that would be a huge win. Don't forget this guys floor is more like Wily Mo Pena or Chris Davis circa 2017 Chris Dickerson is the comp, not Corey. Easy mistake to make!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 4, 2021 16:04:59 GMT -5
Eric, any chance you can post the 23-player list? Very interested in that. There's probably some survivor's bias (very possible I'm using the wrong term) in the fact that some guys didn't get more than 70 PA, right? They were up for a short time and clearly didn't get their strikeout issues dealt with. The explanation seems to be actually more direct. They were never viewed as promising enough to get a lot of PT in their first year. With the possible exception of Teagarden, all of those decisions seem to have been correct.
Given that, I'll also take a look at the guys who were given a chance to play (95 PA+), were 24 or 25, and didn't hit: Player Age Year Tm PA* OPS+ K+ Adrian Nieto 24 2014 CHW 115 83 165 Jeff Larish 25 2008 DET 111 79 178 Brad Hawpe 25 2004 COL 115 77 178 Carlos Rivera 25 2003 PIT 104 67 167 Tyler Greene 25 2009 STL 115 58 157 Brian Bixler 25 2008 PIT 116 15 180 This has turned into a project for the next few days, and I may as well get out all of my BA Prospect Handbooks to see how well everyone was regarded at the time.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 4, 2021 16:56:48 GMT -5
Well before your time limit there was also this big guy in 1987 who at the age of 23 (before your arbitrary cut off point) had 14 hrs and 55 ks in 177 PAs, for a .278/.356/.589/.945. Hit .148 the next year. But they named a website after him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 4, 2021 21:10:43 GMT -5
Well before your time limit there was also this big guy in 1987 who at the age of 23 (before your arbitrary cut off point) had 14 hrs and 55 ks in 177 PAs, for a .278/.356/.589/.945. Hit .148 the next year. But they named a website after him. And as soon as he got out of the offensively clueless (pun intended) Red Sox organization, he had a 126 wRC+ in 863 PA over his next 4 years before getting hurt. That's in line with his debut plus a scouting adjustment.
I talked to Sam when he was a guest at his eponymous group's 2004 victory party. He was still pissed about being sent back to AA in 1986 after having what was actually a terrific season given the Beehive stadium park effect. I brought it up to him as something that had pissed me off and his eyes lit up and he said, "Led the league in doubles!" (add ", bitch!" to get his tone) which I hadn't even known.
When they sent him down in 1988, he was .154 / .353 / .385 in his last 11 G / 7 GS over three weeks. But no one running the team had apparently heard of OBP or SA, so he was just hitting .154. I ran numbers for his teammates in the games he played and he'd been middle of the pack. I didn't mention that to Sam because I didn't want to give him an aneurysm.
Re the time limit, even going back to 2003 is a stretch. No pitch/fx data before '07 to see what a guy had been hitting, so it was almost impossible to have a book on anyone fitting my criteria. No advance scout was going to focus on these guys.
That you called my age 24 cutoff point "arbitrary" is hilarious beyond belief, for which I thank you. I can always count on you for this brand of amusement, which is as predictable as my urge to create a cutting analogy for it and then going meta instead. If I had included age 23 guys among the comps, and their results indicated that Dalbec would be good, you would have been the first person to point out the correct rationale I already gave for excluding them. The comp group is guys who seemed as if they were slow to advance to MLB because of their high K rates.
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Post by manfred on Feb 4, 2021 21:41:54 GMT -5
Well before your time limit there was also this big guy in 1987 who at the age of 23 (before your arbitrary cut off point) had 14 hrs and 55 ks in 177 PAs, for a .278/.356/.589/.945. Hit .148 the next year. But they named a website after him. And as soon as he got out of the offensively clueless (pun intended) Red Sox organization, he had a 126 wRC+ in 863 PA over his next 4 years before getting hurt. That's in line with his debut plus a scouting adjustment.
I talked to Sam when he was a guest at his eponymous group's 2004 victory party. He was still pissed about being sent back to AA in 1986 after having what was actually a terrific season given the Beehive stadium park effect. I brought it up to him as something that had pissed me off and his eyes lit up and he said, "Led the league in doubles!" (add ", bitch!" to get his tone) which I hadn't even known.
When they sent him down in 1988, he was .154 / .353 / .385 in his last 11 G / 7 GS over three weeks. But no one running the team had apparently heard of OBP or SA, so he was just hitting .154. I ran numbers for his teammates in the games he played and he'd been middle of the pack. I didn't mention that to Sam because I didn't want to give him an aneurysm.
Re the time limit, even going back to 2003 is a stretch. No pitch/fx data before '07 to see what a guy had been hitting, so it was almost impossible to have a book on anyone fitting my criteria. No advance scout was going to focus on these guys.
That you called my age 24 cutoff point "arbitrary" is hilarious beyond belief, for which I thank you. I can always count on you for this brand of amusement, which is as predictable as my urge to create a cutting analogy for it and then going meta instead. If I had included age 23 guys among the comps, and their results indicated that Dalbec would be good, you would have been the first person to point out the correct rationale I already gave for excluding them. The comp group is guys who seemed as if they were slow to advance to MLB because of their high K rates.
I know this is going to come of snarky, but it is totally not: what is the take away? This info is really interesting on its face, but what are you seeing in it regarding Dalbec? One take away to me, based at least on the Horn example, is that the Sox need to be careful not to pull the plug if some stats say “struggling” but others say “progress”? Is that a fair read? I could actually easily imagine Dalbec getting off to a superficially brutal start, with sub-.200 BA and tons of Ks — all while walking a decent amount and hitting for power. It seems like the Horn example would say... play on! The other stuff will even out a bit (and might not need to that much to make him worth it). Or am I off?
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Post by soxinjersey on Feb 5, 2021 0:03:45 GMT -5
I've been following Dalbec pretty closely since the Sox drafted him and often checked in on him on Gameday in 2018 and 2019. Especially in 2018, he had a lot of big hits and seemed tough to pitch to in pressure situations. (This seemed less true in 2019.) For this discussion, what is important is his K rate in 2018. I don't have a precise # on PA, but it was somewhere around 34% (208 K & 81 BB in 528 AB). After the season, observers (including on this site) saw the K-rate as a huge red flag because it was so far over the fatal (arbitrary) 30% limit. And yet, Dalbec had 79 (!) XBH, including 35 HR. He amassed 125 RBI. (He played at Salem, Portland, and Mesa.)
He cut his K rate down significantly (to 25% or so) in 2019 (while playing at Portland, Pawtucket and on the US nat'l team), which satisfied many observers, but his production also dropped significantly (although it was still good: 51 XBH with 29 HR in roughly the same # of AB).
Most of us, myself included, have a tendency to fixate on what players can't do, especially when they are on our team. It's important to recognize their strengths as well, and Dalbec has done a terrific job growing as a player over the past four years. When he moves up a level, he struggles at first and then makes adjustments. His high K-rate has never prevented him from producing.
Do I worry about his K's? Of course, but more, as Manfred suggests, because people will judge him on that basis rather than on his production. I hope the Sox give him a legitimate chance next year (and beyond) to show what he can do.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 5, 2021 6:27:12 GMT -5
And as soon as he got out of the offensively clueless (pun intended) Red Sox organization, he had a 126 wRC+ in 863 PA over his next 4 years before getting hurt. That's in line with his debut plus a scouting adjustment.
I talked to Sam when he was a guest at his eponymous group's 2004 victory party. He was still pissed about being sent back to AA in 1986 after having what was actually a terrific season given the Beehive stadium park effect. I brought it up to him as something that had pissed me off and his eyes lit up and he said, "Led the league in doubles!" (add ", bitch!" to get his tone) which I hadn't even known.
When they sent him down in 1988, he was .154 / .353 / .385 in his last 11 G / 7 GS over three weeks. But no one running the team had apparently heard of OBP or SA, so he was just hitting .154. I ran numbers for his teammates in the games he played and he'd been middle of the pack. I didn't mention that to Sam because I didn't want to give him an aneurysm.
Re the time limit, even going back to 2003 is a stretch. No pitch/fx data before '07 to see what a guy had been hitting, so it was almost impossible to have a book on anyone fitting my criteria. No advance scout was going to focus on these guys.
That you called my age 24 cutoff point "arbitrary" is hilarious beyond belief, for which I thank you. I can always count on you for this brand of amusement, which is as predictable as my urge to create a cutting analogy for it and then going meta instead. If I had included age 23 guys among the comps, and their results indicated that Dalbec would be good, you would have been the first person to point out the correct rationale I already gave for excluding them. The comp group is guys who seemed as if they were slow to advance to MLB because of their high K rates.
I know this is going to come of snarky, but it is totally not: what is the take away? This info is really interesting on its face, but what are you seeing in it regarding Dalbec? One take away to me, based at least on the Horn example, is that the Sox need to be careful not to pull the plug if some stats say “struggling” but others say “progress”? Is that a fair read? I could actually easily imagine Dalbec getting off to a superficially brutal start, with sub-.200 BA and tons of Ks — all while walking a decent amount and hitting for power. It seems like the Horn example would say... play on! The other stuff will even out a bit (and might not need to that much to make him worth it). Or am I off? Not snarky at all, because there's no takeaway yet. It's a work in progress.
The idea is to find guys who where good comps for Dalbec, in that they debuted late (within a year in age), had a substantial amount of PT but didn't lose their rookie status, and, most importantly, struck out a lot.
I knew going in that Dalbec improved his K rate significantly midway through this extended cup of coffee. I wanted to find others who did that, if any, and see what became of them. I also wanted to find out if there were any others as good as he was.
I came up with 29 guys worth looking at. Of those, 7 had excellent debuts, and I talked a bit about each of them, but I haven't checked (except by eyeballs) to see whether they improved their K rate during their debut.
I also discovered that only one other guy was a top 100 prospect at the time of his debut, and that was Aaron Judge, and it looks like he also improved his K rate midway, even though he struggled in general.
Now, that Judge and Dalbec are the only 2 guys who debuted at age 24 or 25 as top 100 prospects and struck out a ton makes sense, because they both have huge raw power. If your K rate is keeping you in the minors, and you're still a top 100 prospect, you have to have at least one serious tool.
Since Judge is such an interesting comp, I'm going to look at both his and Dalbec's minor league careers in some detail. I also want to read the BA Handbook reports on most of these guys, and test them all for changes in K rate during their debut (I've got a spreadsheet that can find any big one).
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Feb 5, 2021 8:55:53 GMT -5
One problem with Dalbec is position. He's supposed to be a decent defender at 3rd, which would add value when he's struggling with the bat, but not if he's playing 1b.
I continue to worry about the defensive challenges of our two best players. It makes team building hard and can erode any pitching quality gains, but Devers/X at 1st/2nd leaves two hard-to-fill holes at premium positions, and who knows if they'll be better.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 5, 2021 8:57:27 GMT -5
Well before your time limit there was also this big guy in 1987 who at the age of 23 (before your arbitrary cut off point) had 14 hrs and 55 ks in 177 PAs, for a .278/.356/.589/.945. Hit .148 the next year. But they named a website after him. And as soon as he got out of the offensively clueless (pun intended) Red Sox organization, he had a 126 wRC+ in 863 PA over his next 4 years before getting hurt. That's in line with his debut plus a scouting adjustment.
I talked to Sam when he was a guest at his eponymous group's 2004 victory party. He was still pissed about being sent back to AA in 1986 after having what was actually a terrific season given the Beehive stadium park effect. I brought it up to him as something that had pissed me off and his eyes lit up and he said, "Led the league in doubles!" (add ", bitch!" to get his tone) which I hadn't even known.
When they sent him down in 1988, he was .154 / .353 / .385 in his last 11 G / 7 GS over three weeks. But no one running the team had apparently heard of OBP or SA, so he was just hitting .154. I ran numbers for his teammates in the games he played and he'd been middle of the pack. I didn't mention that to Sam because I didn't want to give him an aneurysm.
Re the time limit, even going back to 2003 is a stretch. No pitch/fx data before '07 to see what a guy had been hitting, so it was almost impossible to have a book on anyone fitting my criteria. No advance scout was going to focus on these guys.
That you called my age 24 cutoff point "arbitrary" is hilarious beyond belief, for which I thank you. I can always count on you for this brand of amusement, which is as predictable as my urge to create a cutting analogy for it and then going meta instead. If I had included age 23 guys among the comps, and their results indicated that Dalbec would be good, you would have been the first person to point out the correct rationale I already gave for excluding them. The comp group is guys who seemed as if they were slow to advance to MLB because of their high K rates.
. Horn hit .148 not just in 1988 but also in 1989, when he hit .148/258/185(!), hitting almost exclusively against rhp, as he did for his entire mlb career, as well as as hitting .232/310/445/755 in 187 PA in AAA at age 25. In that “four years” you are impressed with he only got 873 PA. He had two good years as a platoon DH, and amassed 3 fWAR in those four years, for a career total of 2.9.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 6, 2021 3:26:58 GMT -5
I'm glad I haven't started this project in earnest yet, because I just came up with another set of stats I can check for each of my 30 or so comps. I'm already planning to look at whether each player's K rate improved or declined during his Venti (large cup of coffee). The idea is, an improving rate means you can make adjustments, and that should bode well for the future. But of course there's another stat that's about making adjustments -- batting line by times facing pitcher. I couldn't remember looking at Dalbec's. Given that he made apparent adjustments all throughout his career in the minors, and had a significant K rate improverment in his Venti, I figured he should have good splits. He only faced a SP a third time on 4 occasions, and that slash line was very close to his 2nd-time line, so they're combined here. And the relief line includes just 1 PA seeing a guy the second time.
Split PA BA OBP SLG K+ HRC+ vs. SP, 1st 23 .143 .217 .476 258 544 vs. RP 45 .263 .378 .605 179 401 vs. SP, after 24 .381 .458 .714 106 254 Against relievers, he's a toned-down version of himself versus starters the first time; K rate down 31%, HR/Contact down 26%, and walks (not shown) reduced by 28%. The sum of the three changes creates a perfect wash for HR/PA; his extrapolation to 650 PA goes up from 57 HR to 58.
The slash line is helped a lot by BABIP going up from .200 to .400, but given the other three numbers, some of that is very likely to be real. It makes some sense that already having had 2 PA against a different pitcher is simply going to make him a bit better against a new one. But that's usually offset by facing better pitchers. I may look up who he faced.
Compared to his first look at a starter, in his subsequent ones he cuts his K rate by 59%, bringing it down to just above average (!). He cuts his walks 12.5%. His HRC drops 53%; the net result of the three changes is once again as close to a perfect wash as possible for HR/PA: 2 in 24 instead of 2 in 23. His extrapolation to 650 PA goes down to 54.
Of course, it's actually really easy to see what he did in his first PA of each game.
Ks, Ks, Ks, Ks, Ks, HR, P3, BB, Ks, Ks, Ks, Ks, Ks, Ks, Ks. That's streaky (p = .007 just for striking out or not).
We're now through the 4 SO game in Miami, after which he cut his K rate a lot.
8, Ks, 2B, 43, BB, Ks, HR, 53.
So the .143 / .217 / .476 line is actually .071 / .133 / .286 in his first 15 games and .286 / .375 / .857 in his remaining 8.
The odds of the improvement just in K rate being random, given his overall numbers in this split, are 1 in 44 (p = .023). This is basically the same as for the overall improvement in K rate in his last 8 games, 1 in 35 (p = .028).
Aaron Judge, BTW, struggled terribly against relievers in his Venti. He didn't start to hit good pitching, it seems, until this year.
Meanwhile, it has come (back) to my attention that there's a football game worth watching on Sunday, and we have already eaten the chips and salsa we bought on Monday and hence need to shop tomorrow, precisely what we were trying to avoid with that. So it may not be until early next week that I tackle this project.
And as soon as he got out of the offensively clueless (pun intended) Red Sox organization, he had a 126 wRC+ in 863 PA over his next 4 years before getting hurt. That's in line with his debut plus a scouting adjustment.
I talked to Sam when he was a guest at his eponymous group's 2004 victory party. He was still pissed about being sent back to AA in 1986 after having what was actually a terrific season given the Beehive stadium park effect. I brought it up to him as something that had pissed me off and his eyes lit up and he said, "Led the league in doubles!" (add ", bitch!" to get his tone) which I hadn't even known. When they sent him down in 1988, he was .154 / .353 / .385 in his last 11 G / 7 GS over three weeks. But no one running the team had apparently heard of OBP or SA, so he was just hitting .154. I ran numbers for his teammates in the games he played and he'd been middle of the pack. I didn't mention that to Sam because I didn't want to give him an aneurysm.
Re the time limit, even going back to 2003 is a stretch. No pitch/fx data before '07 to see what a guy had been hitting, so it was almost impossible to have a book on anyone fitting my criteria. No advance scout was going to focus on these guys.
That you called my age 24 cutoff point "arbitrary" is hilarious beyond belief, for which I thank you. I can always count on you for this brand of amusement, which is as predictable as my urge to create a cutting analogy for it and then going meta instead. If I had included age 23 guys among the comps, and their results indicated that Dalbec would be good, you would have been the first person to point out the correct rationale I already gave for excluding them. The comp group is guys who seemed as if they were slow to advance to MLB because of their high K rates.
. Horn hit .148 not just in 1988 but also in 1989, when he hit .148/258/185(!), hitting almost exclusively against rhp, as he did for his entire mlb career, as well as as hitting .232/310/445/755 in 187 PA in AAA at age 25. In that “four years” you are impressed with he only got 873 PA. He had two good years as a platoon DH, and amassed 3 fWAR in those four years, for a career total of 2.9. Jimoh, please pass on my congratulations to whoever you got (sibling? housemate? ex? barber?) to write that deadly parody. (Is it still a self-parody if you ask someone else?) I'm sorry now I that I exaggerated my reaction in my last reply, when I used "beyond belief" in a figurative rather than literal sense. The difference between them is really stark once you experience it.
It's not obvious that it's not you at the start, where you once again ignore my basic point, that what Horn did in the Red Sox organization after they fucked him over is meaningless. It's credible that you don't know that when they sent him back to AA, he had a much worse season, just as he had a much worse season when they sent him back to AAA in 1988 then he had in 1987, and was worse again in 1989. (It's unclear how much of that was the Sox trying to fix what wasn't broken, and Horn being willing to try what they suggested, and how much of that was Horn just losing motivation after each dis.)
But what tips it off -- and it's really fucking brilliant -- is how "you" cite a 62 PA sample in MLB (without mentioning the size) to buttress your argument that Horn didn't after all become a pretty good hitter, and then explicitly dismiss 873 PA as not being evidence for that! I'm laughing out loud. Again. It's clever.
And now I'm wondering whether the entire thing was planned, not only because Horn's not a good comp (as I pointed out already), but because I hadn't made yet really made any claims about Dalbec! Ordinarily you wait till I make one of my characteristic over-the-top assertions before going after me. Here you (or "you") jumped in after my intro. Hmm.
I do think you've got balls, though. I mean, it would be really embarrassing if people thought you you actually wrote that yourself.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 6, 2021 16:02:50 GMT -5
. Horn hit .148 not just in 1988 but also in 1989, when he hit .148/258/185(!), hitting almost exclusively against rhp, as he did for his entire mlb career, as well as as hitting .232/310/445/755 in 187 PA in AAA at age 25. In that “four years” you are impressed with he only got 873 PA. He had two good years as a platoon DH, and amassed 3 fWAR in those four years, for a career total of 2.9. Jimoh, please pass on my congratulations to whoever you got (sibling? housemate? ex? barber?) to write that deadly parody. (Is it still a self-parody if you ask someone else?) I'm sorry now I that I exaggerated my reaction in my last reply, when I used "beyond belief" in a figurative rather than literal sense. The difference between them is really stark once you experience it.
It's not obvious that it's not you at the start, where you once again ignore my basic point, that what Horn did in the Red Sox organization after they fucked him over is meaningless. It's credible that you don't know that when they sent him back to AA, he had a much worse season, just as he had a much worse season when they sent him back to AAA in 1988 then he had in 1987, and was worse again in 1989. (It's unclear how much of that was the Sox trying to fix what wasn't broken, and Horn being willing to try what they suggested, and how much of that was Horn just losing motivation after each dis.)
But what tips it off -- and it's really fucking brilliant -- is how "you" cite a 62 PA sample in MLB (without mentioning the size) to buttress your argument that Horn didn't after all become a pretty good hitter, and then explicitly dismiss 873 PA as not being evidence for that! I'm laughing out loud. Again. It's clever.
And now I'm wondering whether the entire thing was planned, not only because Horn's not a good comp (as I pointed out already), but because I hadn't made yet really made any claims about Dalbec! Ordinarily you wait till I make one of my characteristic over-the-top assertions before going after me. Here you (or "you") jumped in after my intro. Hmm.
I do think you've got balls, though. I mean, it would be really embarrassing if people thought you you actually wrote that yourself.
Nope, that kind of bullying rhetoric and logorrhea does not work on me at all. Your arguments about Horn were silly and selective. I'm not embarrassed. You've missed my points completely, possibly because you think everyone but you is stupid. I'm also not the guy who said that Price's salary would be off the books next year, and that 17 + 13 = 40. I'm not the one ranting and out of control.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 19, 2021 5:49:25 GMT -5
Teaser Trailer ... All the players from 2003 on who debuted at age 24 to 26, had 75 or more PA, and fanned 70% more than MLB average (SO+ of 170 or higher.) Dalbec alone is listed among those whose whole career consists of that season. Jake Rogers had a 180 SO+ and 27 OPS+ and never played again; Evan White (177, 67 in 2020) and Jared Walsh (181, 60 in 2019) are the other two. Player SO+ OPS+ Career Brad Eldred 229 90 74 Aaron Judge 213 61 150 Jabari Blash 195 70 67 Tyler Austin 193 99 96 Carlos Peguero 192 76 80 Richie Shaffer 181 95 99 Jared Walsh 181 60 113 Brian Bixler 180 15 41 Bobby Dalbec 180 152 ? Brad Hawpe 178 77 113 Jeff Larish 178 79 82 Matt Reynolds 174 81 63 Re. Abercrombie 172 58 64 Zack Collins 171 76 62 Andy Gonzalez 171 39 42
You will note that all but 5 of the 14 players ended up with or have a higher career OPS+ than in their debut season, and two guys fell 3 points short.
Yes, since 2003 there have been 18 players that fit this criterion, and Dalbec has been the only one to post an OPS+ higher than 100.
I like the nickname "The Outlier." Not only is he that statistically, but his strikeouts may be lying about his hitting talent.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 19, 2021 10:26:42 GMT -5
I'd be interested in how many PA these guys had in the first season. And with a sample size so small (a "first season" of 75 PA), is there any reason to draw any conclusions from this data set? And I say that as someone who draws much more negative conclusions from it than you would.
Honestly, where I think Dalbec might be his most unique, and where I think a lot of that positive OPS+ comes from, is his ability to get insanely locked in and go on a tear. We're looking at an OPS+ from a 23-game sample in which most of the positive outcomes are from a six-game stretch, with one other mini-three-game stretch in which he was nearly as good. The question is going to be what percentage of the season that is. And before people draw the comparison, I don't think it's quite the same as Bradley. I mean he's going to hit, if not 5 HR in 5 games, 5 in 8 games with another 3 or 4 doubles or something. The other thing will be for him to manage how low the lows get.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 19, 2021 13:52:36 GMT -5
I'd be interested in how many PA these guys had in the first season. And with a sample size so small (a "first season" of 75 PA), is there any reason to draw any conclusions from this data set? And I say that as someone who draws much more negative conclusions from it than you would. Honestly, where I think Dalbec might be his most unique, and where I think a lot of that positive OPS+ comes from, is his ability to get insanely locked in and go on a tear. We're looking at an OPS+ from a 23-game sample in which most of the positive outcomes are from a six-game stretch, with one other mini-three-game stretch in which he was nearly as good. The question is going to be what percentage of the season that is. And before people draw the comparison, I don't think it's quite the same as Bradley. I mean he's going to hit, if not 5 HR in 5 games, 5 in 8 games with another 3 or 4 doubles or something. The other thing will be for him to manage how low the lows get. Name PA Re. Abercrombie 281 Andy Gonzalez 215 Brad Eldred 208 Evan White 202 Carlos Peguero 155 Jake Rogers 128 Brian Bixler 120 Brad Hawpe 118 Jeff Larish 111 Zack Collins 102 Matt Reynolds 96 Aaron Judge 95 Bobby Dalbec 92 Tyler Austin 90 Richie Shaffer 88 Jared Walsh 87 Jabari Blash 84 Robel Garcia 80 Dalbec had a 216 SO+ in his first 59 PA and a 116 in his subsequent 33. But breaking his season down with possible excessive granularity shows 15 great games and 8 bad ones.
1 G, 4 PA, 1.750 OPS, 212 SO+
4 G, 15 PA, .067, 255 6 G, 24 PA, 1.190, 159 4 G, 16 PA, .321, 265 8 G, 33 PA, 1.070, 116
I've done a lot of studying of streaky guys and this doesn't look like normal streakiness. I've never seen a guy fix an evident mechanical problem in much less than 12 games (Manny's norm). Without knowing anything about the player except that this was his debut, I think I'd say (since I really can't remove knowledge from my brain!) that it was at least one adjustment in approach and maybe two. And the drop in K rate in his last hot streak is statistically significant, which is why I want to look at the debut seasons of all the comps.
I've got 76 guys who had 50 PA or more and a 150 SO+ or worse. I have a spreadsheet that can find any significant split in K rate over the course of a season, but the game log needs to be massaged before it can be pasted in. Eliminating guys with OPS+ below 90, PA below 75, and SO+ below 170 only reduces that to 67!
What I've just decided to do is everyone in reverse order of PA. I want to see how often there are significant changes in K rate, and the longer you let a guy play, the more likely that is of happening.
But as I type that, I realize that we also need a K rate history for Dalbec in the minors, including all significant changes mid-season. And I just constructed a version of my spreadsheet for minor league game logs.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 19, 2021 14:22:34 GMT -5
Aaaaand I just ruined (improved? have a cocktail while you do it?) Eric's weekend.
Interesting that Walsh and Judge are both on the lower end of that PA spectrum, as is Dalbec of course. Makes sense.
I think I just come down on the fact that very little would surprise me on Dalbec at this point. He could hit 40 bombs or have a batting average of .040 and I wouldn't bat an eyelash at either.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 19, 2021 16:46:35 GMT -5
Aaaaand I just ruined (improved? have a cocktail while you do it?) Eric's weekend. Interesting that Walsh and Judge are both on the lower end of that PA spectrum, as is Dalbec of course. Makes sense. I think I just come down on the fact that very little would surprise me on Dalbec at this point. He could hit 40 bombs or have a batting average of .040 and I wouldn't bat an eyelash at either. And what I'm trying to do here is just shift those possibilities somewhat!
I do have his 2016 season done. He had a 116 SO+, but he had a 97 (!) going into his last 6 G / 26 PA, where he had a more recognizably Dalbec-ish 188. That's a significant difference, although of course I'm looking for any point in the season where there is one. He had a crazy BABIP and his numbers barely suffered, though.
And I just discovered that my spreadsheet gets confused by two significant changes in opposite directions! Because the 97 SO+ in his first 117 PA is actually 130 in his first 64 PA and 55 in his next 53, which is just as significant as the difference between that combination and his finish!. His OPS in these three phases was .875, 1.409, and 1.023.
Now, I'm going to break down every one of his 6 stints in the minors into any such phases I can find, and run the numbers for SO+, UBB+, HRC+, and BABIP+, which is say my usual 4-way breakdown but relative to league. That has the possibility of separating changes in approach / adjustments from slumps.
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Post by patford on Feb 19, 2021 16:48:31 GMT -5
Aaaaand I just ruined (improved? have a cocktail while you do it?) Eric's weekend. Interesting that Walsh and Judge are both on the lower end of that PA spectrum, as is Dalbec of course. Makes sense. I think I just come down on the fact that very little would surprise me on Dalbec at this point. He could hit 40 bombs or have a batting average of .040 and I wouldn't bat an eyelash at either. Or hit 40 bombs with a .040 BA.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 19, 2021 16:59:40 GMT -5
Aaaaand I just ruined (improved? have a cocktail while you do it?) Eric's weekend. Interesting that Walsh and Judge are both on the lower end of that PA spectrum, as is Dalbec of course. Makes sense. I think I just come down on the fact that very little would surprise me on Dalbec at this point. He could hit 40 bombs or have a batting average of .040 and I wouldn't bat an eyelash at either. Or hit 40 bombs with a .040 BA. First-ever major leaguer with 1000 at-bats? I'm in.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 19, 2021 17:00:33 GMT -5
Aaaaand I just ruined (improved? have a cocktail while you do it?) Eric's weekend. Interesting that Walsh and Judge are both on the lower end of that PA spectrum, as is Dalbec of course. Makes sense. I think I just come down on the fact that very little would surprise me on Dalbec at this point. He could hit 40 bombs or have a batting average of .040 and I wouldn't bat an eyelash at either. And what I'm trying to do here is just shift those possibilities somewhat! I do have his 2016 season done. He had a 116 SO+, but he had a 97 (!) going into his last 6 G / 26 PA, where he had a more recognizably Dalbec-ish 188. That's a significant difference, although of course I'm looking for any point in the season where there is one. He had a crazy BABIP and his numbers barely suffered, though. And I just discovered that my spreadsheet gets confused by two significant changes in opposite directions! Because the 97 SO+ in his first 117 PA is actually 130 in his first 64 PA and 55 in his next 53, which is just as significant as the difference between that combination and his finish!. His OPS in these three phases was .875, 1.409, and 1.023. Now, I'm going to break down every one of his 6 stints in the minors into any such phases I can find, and run the numbers for SO+, UBB+, HRC+, and BABIP+, which is say my usual 4-way breakdown but relative to league. That has the possibility of separating changes in approach / adjustments from slumps.
I mean, I'm not sure that the Pac-12 wasn't a tougher league than the NYPL (RIP). I'd just start in 2017, personally.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 19, 2021 18:57:53 GMT -5
And what I'm trying to do here is just shift those possibilities somewhat! I do have his 2016 season done. He had a 116 SO+, but he had a 97 (!) going into his last 6 G / 26 PA, where he had a more recognizably Dalbec-ish 188. That's a significant difference, although of course I'm looking for any point in the season where there is one. He had a crazy BABIP and his numbers barely suffered, though. And I just discovered that my spreadsheet gets confused by two significant changes in opposite directions! Because the 97 SO+ in his first 117 PA is actually 130 in his first 64 PA and 55 in his next 53, which is just as significant as the difference between that combination and his finish!. His OPS in these three phases was .875, 1.409, and 1.023. Now, I'm going to break down every one of his 6 stints in the minors into any such phases I can find, and run the numbers for SO+, UBB+, HRC+, and BABIP+, which is say my usual 4-way breakdown but relative to league. That has the possibility of separating changes in approach / adjustments from slumps.
I mean, I'm not sure that the Pac-12 wasn't a tougher league than the NYPL (RIP). I'd just start in 2017, personally. Well, I already had done 2016 when you typed that! But it's valuable info, even beyond the fact that it has the only significant drop in K rate that I've found so far, other than his one last year.
He had a 73 UBB+ with Lowell. Walking 17% fewer than the average player. When he struggled for most of the year in Greenville (.659 OPS through 8/17), he had a 144, essentially double. That's being handed a real or virtual copy of The Science of Hitting: learn to go deeper in counts, look for your pitch, or you'll never get to the show.
In his last 16 games with Greenville, when he put up a 1.142 to rescue his season, he reduced his SO+ from 170 to 154 and boosted his UBB+ further, to 159. And of course he hit the ball much harder. This looks to me like a guy who's finally learned what he was working on.
With Salem, he started the season, first 41 games, with almost the exact same numbers, SO+ 159, UBB+ 152. He didn't hit the ball nearly as hard and had a .788 OPS. He then cut his SO+ to 131 over his next 34 G; his other rates were almost unchanged, but just cutting the K's boosted his OPS to .859.
Now that's not a statistically significant decline in K rate; basically 1 guy in 10 who's working on cutting down his strikeouts will do that by sheer luck given these sample sizes. But what happens next, the monster 25 games that got him his promotion to AA, is what makes you think it was pretty likely for real.
And in fact, in that .356 / .453 / .862 tear, he had an essentially unchanged K rate (135). His UBB+ went from 146 to 164, which may have just been pitcher respect. Or noise (it's just 2 extra walks.)
So that's half the study. Next is the two AA seasons and AAA/ I'll put up a table with all the numbers with that.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 19, 2021 22:36:38 GMT -5
People on this site who've watched him over time have remarked about Dalbec's streaks, the blistering hot and the ice cold sides of him. I think that offers some hope, that it's just a matter of getting out of sync and working his way back. Perhaps that becomes less of a problem over time.
There's also the way he was able to reduce his K rate as he moved through the system: 2017 - 37% 2018 - 25% 2019 - 23% As others have pointed out, he looked as if he was bringing the catastrophic K rate down towards the end of what was a drastically pandemic shortened call-up last season.
There are some reasons for optimism.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 21, 2021 22:31:58 GMT -5
One lesson that's been driven home in this analysis is that you should try to stay away from slash lines for a first look. Instead, look at SO%, UBB%, HR/Contact, and to a much lesser extent, BABIP. Ideally, take those all relative to league, like OPS+. Bobby Dalbec is about to repeat a level for the second time in his career. Let's look at what happened last time, and look at what his first taste of MLB was like compared to his first taste of AA in 2018. Year Lvl PA* SO+ BB+ HRC+ BAP+ 2018 AA 123 174 46 279 123 2019 AA 433 110 169 273 94 2020 MLB 92 180 122 371 135
Here's his whole career: Year Lvl PA SO+ BB+ HRC+ BAP+ 2016 A- 143 113 73 478 157 2017 A 328 166 148 332 123 2018 A+ 418 144 153 454 103 2018 AA 123 174 46 279 123 2019 AA 433 110 169 273 94 2019 AAA 123 103 44 164 87 2020 MLB 92 180 122 371 135 Remember that the 180 SO+ last year went from 216 to 116 after his first 59 PA. So he actually hasn't sported a scary K rate since 2018, except for his first 59 PA in MLB when his only AAA experience was 123 PA a year previously.
Slash lines for the first 59 PA versus the final 33. The top line of each pair is actual and the second line is StatCast expected statistics. Final number is wOBA / xwOBA.
.260 / .327 / .640 (.391)
.177 / .252 / .491 (.295)
This is for real; he had a 79 EV bloop single off Sean Dolittle on 8/30, a 62 EV swinging bunt off Chase Anderson on 9/5, a 78 EV bloop double off Aaron Loup on 9/11, and a 56 EV infield chop off of Sandy Alcantara on 9/15. And not one hit robbed by luck or skill.
But then ...
.308 / .455 / .615 (.445) .271 / .425 / .696 (.440)
Another cool lens is to look at K + W as a measure of patience, and more importantly, K/W ratio as a measure strike zone command, which we can express as W / (SO + W). Presenting these as + figures is really helpful, because we don't intuitively know what good numbers are.
Year Lvl KW+ W/KW+ 2016 A- 101 45 2017 A 161 77 2018 A+ 146 104 2018 AA 137 45 2019 AA 126 135 2019 AAA 86 43 2020 MLB 164 74 Main season strike zone command progression in the minors: 45, 77, 104, 135.
Alex S. has had Dalbec much higher than he is here because he's convinced he has makeup that results in continuous adjustments and improvements. The more you look at the data, the more you see that.
A key question that remains: is that last 33 PA with the 116 SO+ a hot streak or an adjustment?
I'm still puzzling over his 2019 season, where his various component rates seem to go on serious streaks that are independent of one another. But before that I found three killer slumps, two at Salem that lasted 11 games each, and one at the end of that year, the last 13 games of the season. This was after my stating that that slumps typically last 12 games or more.
Let's go back to this breakdown of his 2020 results:
1 G, 4 PA, 1.750 OPS, 212 SO+ 4 G, 15 PA, .067, 255 6 G, 24 PA, 1.190, 159 4 G, 16 PA, .321, 265 8 G, 33 PA, 1.070, 116
And let's get the Stactast expected slash lines for the last four groups. This is exciting! I have little idea what the results will be* ...
4G .056 / .118 / .057 but unlucky
6G .327 / .411 / 1.046 unlucky
4G .071 / .129 / .083 lucky
8G .271 / .425 / .696 neutral
(*Because I forgot that his debut not only had a lucky single, but a HR that was a routine deep fly ball but hit down the line. I didn't mention that in the cheap hit rundown because it wasn't actually a cheap hit, and because it was offset later by an out hit to the deepest part of some ballpark, which I'm not going to track down.)
Well, there's no evidence of a conventional slump before that great 8-game finish, where your brain fixates on bad mechanics and it takes you close to two weeks to unlearn them (or three months if you're JBJ). The only way I can make sense of that series of slash lines, if we insist on doing so, is that the 4 brutal games that climaxed with 4 K's against the Marlins and the a day off had something to do with the league figuring him out a bit and Dalbec attempting to deal with it the wrong way, in terms of approach, which can even mean what pitch to look for in what count.
My claim here is that the hot and cold pattern is too extreme to be mechanical changes. The guy went from a 265 SO+ (in the 4 games, 10 SO in 16 PA) to 116 literally over two nights. That's not one day's work in the batting cage. Nobody can do that. That's looking at video with your coaches and going, oh, that's what they're doing, that's how they're getting you out. And this lesson is part of a general one about how you get pitched to at the MLB level, and how to respond.
Or it's all random. One or the other!
Two more notes. I don't now recall whether we noticed this at the time, or if anyone remembers if we did, but in early May of 2017, after putting up a .648 OPS, he went on a 6-game tear (.986) that ended when he got hurt. He didn't come back to Greenville for two months and it took him another 5 weeks to find his groove. But his K and BB components in that great 16-game hope-supplying finish were pretty much identical to the 6 games before the injury, and his HRC and BABIP similar and somewhat better. That injury really set him back.
Finally, if this guy can indeed really hit, the reason is because he really can adapt and adjust. His long-term role here would be DH who backs up 1B and occasionally 3B maybe. And DHing is hard. But a guy who works hard and is a student of the game seems like a perfect candidate for that role. And of course, we have guy who mastered that, to give him some advice, even if it's informal.
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