SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
|
Post by James Dunne on May 25, 2021 8:05:04 GMT -5
If Duran is as bad in the OF as some of these posts indicate, then where does that leave him? This will sound like a snarky response, but it isn't meant to be: it leaves him in the minors, trying to get better at it. Duran was a second baseman in college and he's lost a season of games, so he's still at fewer than 250 games at the position, and he's been doing that while retooling his swing the entire time. At the other extreme, the Mookie Betts comps are ridiculous. He's played a lot more games than Betts did in the outfield and is much less of a natural at the position. Betts' ability to learn how to do seemingly anything at a star level isn't a learning curve we should project on any young players going forward. I really never want to hear a "well Mookie Betts did (insert some thing he learned to do in 20 minutes)." Yes, he did, because getting good at things that other people cannot is what makes him Mookie Betts.
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,799
Member is Online
|
Post by mobaz on May 25, 2021 8:42:58 GMT -5
If Duran is as bad in the OF as some of these posts indicate, then where does that leave him? This will sound like a snarky response, but it isn't meant to be: it leaves him in the minors, trying to get better at it. Duran was a second baseman in college and he's lost a season of games, so he's still at fewer than 250 games at the position, and he's been doing that while retooling his swing the entire time. At the other extreme, the Mookie Betts comps are ridiculous. He's played a lot more games than Betts did in the outfield and is much less of a natural at the position. Betts' ability to learn how to do seemingly anything at a star level isn't a learning curve we should project on any young players going forward. I really never want to hear a "well Mookie Betts did (insert some thing he learned to do in 20 minutes)." Yes, he did, because getting good at things that other people cannot is what makes him Mookie Betts. Mookie Betts rolled a 300 at least 3 times and it made it on his BR page! Why aren't we finding more bowlers? What's Jack Leiter's high score? www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bettsmo01.shtml#all_bowling-results
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on May 25, 2021 9:15:50 GMT -5
He'd play LF, meaning that for him be an impact player his offense would have to be significantly better than league average. His offense would have to be pretty decent to make up for the WAR he's not putting up on defense and also to compete with the production of the guys in the league playing this offense-first position. Well than, I guess it is a good thing that Duran is on pace for 51 HR's over 600 plate appearances, I think that is significantly better than league average.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 25, 2021 9:16:18 GMT -5
Drafting by bowling score be:
A. An inspired tribute to Mookie Betts B. Maybe not a good idea C. A more analytical approach than whatever Dan Duquette was using in his drafts (post-Nomar, at least) D. All of the above
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2021 10:40:08 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, left fielders are the third-worst hitters in the game this season, only better than catchers and second basemen. They hit right about league average. Now, this is in part due to what just happens to be a present darth of good LF hitters in the game right now. The Reds (Winker), Dodgers (Pollock and a cast of characters), Tigers (Grossman), and Rays (Meadows, Arozarena, and Margot) are getting great production from the position, but meanwhile, Minnesota, Texas, Cleveland, NYY, Seattle, Toronto, and Milwaukee are getting abysmal LF production. Consider that Boston left fielders, hitting .247/.299/.368, are actually about the 18th-best group in MLB (aided by a lot of good Verdugo to counterbalance the Franchy suck)! Link: www.baseball-reference.com/tools/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1¶ms=defp%7Cas%20LF%7CML%7C2021%7Cbat%7CAB%7CPoint is, the conventional wisdom that if you need to play LF there's a bunch of pressure on the bat doesn't NECESSARILY hold. I mean, if Duran can turn into a faster, weaker hit tool, better power Benintendi (which is actually not Benintendi at all but you hopefully get my point)... that's ok right? That said, again, not out on Duran in CF. He's just still working at it, and that's ok.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on May 25, 2021 10:49:08 GMT -5
Just a semi follow up: does Duran *need* to be a CF? I mean, if he is the non-Beni-Beni, what is the downside of his being projected at LF? The reason I ask is actually only partly about Duran. The other part is — can’t Verdugo be projected as the CF? Then their need becomes RF?
This may be saying nothing, I guess. I just wonder if Duran settling on one position, and maybe an easier one, might aid his development. Certainly speed it — and in a way that doesn’t cheat the future.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on May 25, 2021 11:49:24 GMT -5
I'm really curious to see what the defensive metrics end up saying on Duran. It sounds like he has some real bad looking plays, but it's a a big advantage that his legs are always moving faster than everyone else's.
I'm a little skeptical that he's going to get much better. If Casas pushed Bobby Dalbec to the outfield, then after 3 years and 250 games I'd be accepting his defense for what it is.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
|
Post by jimoh on May 25, 2021 13:21:20 GMT -5
Just a semi follow up: does Duran *need* to be a CF? I mean, if he is the non-Beni-Beni, what is the downside of his being projected at LF? The reason I ask is actually only partly about Duran. The other part is — can’t Verdugo be projected as the CF? Then their need becomes RF? This may be saying nothing, I guess. I just wonder if Duran settling on one position, and maybe an easier one, might aid his development. Certainly speed it — and in a way that doesn’t cheat the future. This makes some sense, but Duran would be so much more valuable if his problem with CF is not lack of gifts but lack of reps. Verdugo is fine but not elite in CF. If you keep him in CF, finding a RF who can play well in Fenway and hit is no small task.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on May 25, 2021 13:34:28 GMT -5
My concern is that Duran doesn't turn out to be a leadoff hitter, given his more recent power profile, and he produces something in the range of: .240/.310/.420
Granted - that's a major league player, and likely better than what we can expect out of 2/3s of our current outfield, but it doesn't quite match the excitement.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on May 25, 2021 13:42:32 GMT -5
Just a semi follow up: does Duran *need* to be a CF? I mean, if he is the non-Beni-Beni, what is the downside of his being projected at LF? The reason I ask is actually only partly about Duran. The other part is — can’t Verdugo be projected as the CF? Then their need becomes RF? This may be saying nothing, I guess. I just wonder if Duran settling on one position, and maybe an easier one, might aid his development. Certainly speed it — and in a way that doesn’t cheat the future. This makes some sense, but Duran would be so much more valuable if his problem with CF is not lack of gifts but lack of reps. Verdugo is fine but not elite in CF. If you keep him in CF, finding a RF who can play well in Fenway and hit is no small task. I guess I see Verdugo in somewhat the same light. If he can play CF, great. As a RF, he might be slightly light hitting. In the end, the Sox are one OF short past this season. That gap will have to be filled somehow, and hopefully with a legit bat to make up whatever slight gap might remain.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on May 25, 2021 14:55:31 GMT -5
How many years do we have to wait to sign Juan Soto?
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 25, 2021 15:01:23 GMT -5
My concern is that Duran doesn't turn out to be a leadoff hitter, given his more recent power profile, and he produces something in the range of: .240/.310/.420 Granted - that's a major league player, and likely better than what we can expect out of 2/3s of our current outfield, but it doesn't quite match the excitement. Eh, that probably means the excitement is out of wack. That kind of player (think a Josh Reddick (career .262/.321/.428) with worse defense) is still pretty valuable. Duran certainly has upside beyond that, but as a median projection, if you expect much more than that, you’re probably just going to be let down.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,410
|
Post by radiohix on May 25, 2021 15:05:43 GMT -5
How many years do we have to wait to sign Juan Soto? Three more years. Trust me, I'm counting every single day of those.
|
|
|
Post by geostorm on May 26, 2021 0:54:10 GMT -5
This convo had be pausing, in thought, and, reflecting on my Red Sox rooting history, and, that I miss having a legacy OF - or, even just a very good one that compliments the team - for 5-10 yrs or so, standing in front of the Green Monster, like I irrationally feel Fenway deserves... ...that perhaps I've been spoiled by being born into the latter part of Ted's run, '40-60, transitioning to Yaz..Jim Ed...Greenie for 12...Troy for a few, before connecting to Manny through 2001... (not to mention, since we're in season, spoiled by Bruins having a legacy defensemen near all my rooting life, from Orr/Park/Bourque/Chara/McAvoy) ...an interesting run of LFers, 2002 to current, and, whoever is "next", while I'd love a HOFer, I'd be happy with a nice run of Greenwell or O'Leary (or Reddick) like performance for a handful or so year! (without looking, in the above run from Ted through Manny, there was a single season that "interrupted" that run, where LF was manned by someone else...do you recall the player, and season?)
|
|
nomen
New Member
Posts: 1
|
Post by nomen on May 26, 2021 4:46:10 GMT -5
I haven't been frequenting this post, so excuse me if this question is redundant, but wasn't Duran pushed out to CF to make use of his surplus speed? If he's not a natural at the position, and his eventual promotion could be delayed by his slow uptake of what it takes to be a CF, than what is the possibility of him at least getting some reps in at 2b, and maybe even 3b if he's at all capable there, a long with LF, and at least give him a chance to be a utility player like Holt, Chavis, etc.?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 27, 2021 18:02:40 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by patford on May 27, 2021 21:05:30 GMT -5
If I'm the Red Sox I pay close attention to everything Keith Law says and then do the opposite.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on May 27, 2021 23:45:54 GMT -5
If I'm the Red Sox I pay close attention to everything Keith Law says and then do the opposite. I am no Keith Law, but I would have been happy to see Duran called up. That is now water under the bridge. Duran is gone for three weeks, and unless the Sox lose more OFs, Duran will necessarily go back down Route 9. His play from now on and roster circumstances will dictate his move to the big time.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on May 28, 2021 0:33:44 GMT -5
If Duran is as bad in the OF as some of these posts indicate, then where does that leave him? This will sound like a snarky response, but it isn't meant to be: it leaves him in the minors, trying to get better at it. Duran was a second baseman in college and he's lost a season of games, so he's still at fewer than 250 games at the position, and he's been doing that while retooling his swing the entire time. At the other extreme, the Mookie Betts comps are ridiculous. He's played a lot more games than Betts did in the outfield and is much less of a natural at the position. Betts' ability to learn how to do seemingly anything at a star level isn't a learning curve we should project on any young players going forward. I really never want to hear a "well Mookie Betts did (insert some thing he learned to do in 20 minutes)." Yes, he did, because getting good at things that other people cannot is what makes him Mookie Betts. That last line is not only GOLD, but it sums up why comps are so brutal. I'm a huge Luis Patiño fan, and I think he's going to have at least some incredible games, if not career. His size, extension, repertoire and stuff remind me of Pedro. But few pitchers in history have had a delivery as consistent as Pedro's. Mookie is just a 3+ Z-score outlier. And I'm still f*cking pissed as hell he bailed. But it's made me appreciate Bogey a million times more (what a champion)...another guy who had to fix and fiddle and work things out despite considerable talent. At least Duran's swing (stance) change version 2.0 has him hitting for more power.
|
|
|
Post by patford on May 28, 2021 6:04:04 GMT -5
It's easy to leave Mookie out of the equation and just say that Duran's progress in CF has not been impressive. And now he's been moved off CF which is out of need at the MLB level but playing in LF isn't going to help him much in playing CF.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 28, 2021 7:19:43 GMT -5
It's easy to leave Mookie out of the equation and just say that Duran's progress in CF has not been impressive. And now he's been moved off CF which is out of need at the MLB level but playing in LF isn't going to help him much in playing CF. Not sure where you're getting that Duran has been moved off CF but that's not true. He's playing the corners some but he's still getting most of his reps in center. www.soxprospects.com/stats/lineup.php?team=533&year=2021&date=0527
|
|
|
Post by patford on May 28, 2021 9:22:27 GMT -5
It's easy to leave Mookie out of the equation and just say that Duran's progress in CF has not been impressive. And now he's been moved off CF which is out of need at the MLB level but playing in LF isn't going to help him much in playing CF. Not sure where you're getting that Duran has been moved off CF but that's not true. He's playing the corners some but he's still getting most of his reps in center. www.soxprospects.com/stats/lineup.php?team=533&year=2021&date=0527Okay. I was thinking he was getting most of his reps in LF over the past couple of weeks. My thinking was just based on discussion of him being in LF (I see it was only one game) and the need at the MLB level. Exactly what is his major issue with reads? Is it more balls over his head? In front of him? Or both? If it's more over his head then maybe LF in Fenway would work for him. He could play deep and use his speed to charge balls hit in front of him. The concerning thing is I never see reports that he's doing better, or is much improved. It's always something negative. That may not be a reflection of what is really going on but I've yet to hear Ian say anything encouraging and I don't think it's because he's beating up on the guy. I assume it's an objective observation.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on May 28, 2021 9:44:29 GMT -5
Okay. I was thinking he was getting most of his reps in LF over the past couple of weeks. My thinking was just based on discussion of him being in LF (I see it was only one game) and the need at the MLB level. Exactly what is his major issue with reads? Is it more balls over his head? In front of him? Or both? If it's more over his head then maybe LF in Fenway would work for him. He could play deep and use his speed to charge balls hit in front of him. The concerning thing is I never see reports that he's doing better, or is much improved. It's always something negative. That may not be a reflection of what is really going on but I've yet to hear Ian say anything encouraging and I don't think it's because he's beating up on the guy. I assume it's an objective observation.
If he's having trouble with balls over his head, I'd be a little worried that wall may sneak up on him.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 28, 2021 18:47:51 GMT -5
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,200
|
Post by cdj on May 28, 2021 21:13:08 GMT -5
Todd Frazier heaping praise on him in that article. Says he’s really impressive and his work ethic is head and shoulders above where his was at that age. Nice to hear that from a guy who has been in the league this year
|
|
|