SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
|
Post by soxinsf on May 23, 2021 0:08:08 GMT -5
Good days and bad days? He is hitting .300 with an OPS around 1100. Consider his body of work. That is why he is ready to come up and play. Franchy needs a chance to find himself at AAA. But the bottom line is that Duran is ready and he can take the place of any of Franchy, Arroyo, Chavis, Marwin. Have you seen his outfield defense? He isn't a DH, so they have to be comfortable with that aspect as well. Yes I have. Have you? I have also seen JD play the outfield. This is silly. My sainted mother could play left field in Fenway.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,336
|
Post by radiohix on May 23, 2021 0:53:28 GMT -5
It's well documented that his defense is bad and needs lots of work. Here's an example:
And again , his contact on swings is a very mediocre 63% vs AAA pitchers (Franchy's 64.6% vs major leaguers, MLB average is 75.2%). If he's whiffing at those rates vs minor leaguers, how much do you think he'll do vs superior competition? There's no need for him in Boston right now so why we just let him work on his issues in a no-pressure situation and call him up when he's ready, because he's not.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on May 23, 2021 6:34:33 GMT -5
If Danny Santana continues to be effective it allows the Sox to be patient with Duran. Duh!! A more obvious statement has yet to be made.
That quote about his D and being that bad at reading a ball is concerning, as in that isn't solved with a few weeks of playing time.
|
|
|
Post by patford on May 23, 2021 9:12:15 GMT -5
It's well documented that his defense is bad and needs lots of work. Here's an example: And again , his contact on swings is a very mediocre 63% vs AAA pitchers (Franchy's 64.6% vs major leaguers, MLB average is 75.2%). If he's whiffing at those rates vs minor leaguers, how much do you think he'll do vs superior competition? There's no need for him in Boston right now so why we just let him work on his issues in a no-pressure situation and call him up when he's ready, because he's not. The biggest concern is he does not seem to be making a lot of progress in the OF. That is why I'm wondering if they shouldn't consider moving him back to 2B. It isn't like there have never been fast 2B men and his speed is not a factor in CF if he gets poor jumps. He does not have the arm for RF and in LF his speed is not much more of a factor than it would be at 2B.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 23, 2021 9:26:48 GMT -5
Have you seen his outfield defense? He isn't a DH, so they have to be comfortable with that aspect as well. Yes I have. Have you? I have also seen JD play the outfield. This is silly. My sainted mother could play left field in Fenway. Your sainted mother could have, perhaps, but Hanley Ramirez couldn't, and he was a formerly athletic shortstop. Manny Ramirez couldn't either, really.
JD is an exception that proves the rule: he plays out there, but only occasionally, and only because he's a 1.000 OPS bat. Do you think Duran will come up and immediately hit that well?
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on May 23, 2021 10:13:44 GMT -5
Yes I have. Have you? I have also seen JD play the outfield. This is silly. My sainted mother could play left field in Fenway. Your sainted mother could have, perhaps, but Hanley Ramirez couldn't, and he was a formerly athletic shortstop. Manny Ramirez couldn't either, really.
JD is an exception that proves the rule: he plays out there, but only occasionally, and only because he's a 1.000 OPS bat. Do you think Duran will come up and immediately hit that well?
Manny Ramirez was just fine in LF. Everyone loves to show the clip of him cutting off the throw from Damon, but that was one play in 7 years. Manny made all the routine plays and many nice plays out there, as well. That’s not to say anyone can play out there, but Duran would be fine.
|
|
|
Post by terriblehondo on May 23, 2021 10:21:54 GMT -5
The example of bad defense above is obviously a ball that is lost off the bat and I have seen gold glove outfielders do that. So it is a bad example. Bad first steps and bad routes is what concerns me. To a certain extent plus speed can help make you an average fielder because of the make up speed. I would rather have a guy with average speed with good first step and good routes. But the more repetition he gets the better he should be but I doubt he will ever be a plus outfielder even with his speed. If Santana can be decent I don't see any reason to rush Jarren. Give him more reps in the outfield and with his new swing. He will be up soon enough I would like him to have the best chance of success.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on May 23, 2021 10:23:00 GMT -5
I understand this line of argument, but it seems terribly shortsighted. It gives no credit to his full year at the ATS during the 2020 season, nor does it give any credit for his performances in the Caribe Series or Spring Training. Duran is clearly more seasoned than a young kid coming up from AA. Know of any players who successfully skipped AAA on their ways to the Sox? So many holes in this statement, sits like swiss cheese. Bringing this conversation over from the gameday thread. Duran was batting 2-16 this week before this game, and 4 for his previous 27 after Chris's made his post above to not assume he's definitely ready. I realize it's tough to dismiss this 5-5 performance, but let's not overvalue his good days and ignore his bad days. I hate being negative on the guy though, he's looking as promising as everyone hoped he'd be and he's continuing what he showed last year and this spring so we all should be excited about his future. Duran should be taking AB’s from Franchy and Marwin right now(and probably from Renfroe most of the time, too). It’s not like Kikè is anything special in CF, himself. I’m not sure what’s holding Duran back once any service time concerns are out of the way? So he strikes out a lot. So does everyone in MLB. That’s the game now. I certainly don’t like it, but every team strikes out 10+ times/game these days.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 23, 2021 10:33:14 GMT -5
They play half their games on the road. Plus, left field at Fenway might be small, but it has a ton of intricacies. Misread a carom off the Monster and that hitter is going to be running for a long time. It’s better for a wily OFer with limited range than a rangy OF with poor instincts.
It’s the classic dilemma of whether you prioritize short-term production or long-term player development. For me, the MLB playing time opportunity at the moment is small enough that he’s better served spending a little more time in AAA. But that could change with injuries or continued poor performance from the OF rotation.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on May 23, 2021 10:49:44 GMT -5
They play half their games on the road. Plus, left field at Fenway might be small, but it has a ton of intricacies. Misread a carom off the Monster and that hitter is going to be running for a long time. It’s better for a wily OFer with limited range than a rangy OF with poor instincts. It’s the classic dilemma of whether you prioritize short-term production or long-term player development. For me, the MLB playing time opportunity at the moment is small enough that he’s better served spending a little more time in AAA. But that could change with injuries or continued poor performance from the OF rotation. How long is a little more time? If he is as bad as some people are suggesting, he will not become a major league outfielder ever. So what is it to be? He comes up in July or August or the waits until he learns to play LF like he was Beni or Dugie? Which is to say never. Maybe he is trade bait.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,083
|
Post by cdj on May 23, 2021 11:05:48 GMT -5
I think it’s important to note he was hitting like .242 before yesterday with some contact issues, let’s not act like he’s mastered AAA because he had a sensational game. It’s been like 3 weeks and it’s not like he had a ton of time or success in AA. Let’s see him get his new swing fully locked in, let’s get him some more reps in the OF, and maybe call him up in a couple months
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on May 23, 2021 11:10:48 GMT -5
I think it’s important to note he was hitting like .242 before yesterday with some contact issues, let’s not act like he’s mastered AAA because he had a sensational game. It’s been like 3 weeks and it’s not like he had a ton of time or success in AA. Let’s see him get his new swing fully locked in, let’s get him some more reps in the OF, and maybe call him up in a couple months OK. What are the parameters of success you want to see?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on May 23, 2021 11:11:36 GMT -5
They play half their games on the road. Plus, left field at Fenway might be small, but it has a ton of intricacies. Misread a carom off the Monster and that hitter is going to be running for a long time. Itâs better for a wily OFer with limited range than a rangy OF with poor instincts. Itâs the classic dilemma of whether you prioritize short-term production or long-term player development. For me, the MLB playing time opportunity at the moment is small enough that heâs better served spending a little more time in AAA. But that could change with injuries or continued poor performance from the OF rotation. How long is a little more time? If he is as bad as some people are suggesting, he will not become a major league outfielder ever. So what is it to be? He comes up in July or August or the waits until he learns to play LF like he was Beni or Dugie? Which is to say never. Maybe he is trade bait. What jemi said. Plus patience. I mean until yesterday he was hitting .250 in AAA with a lot of strike outs and mediocre defense. That's not say that he wasn't showing promising power or that he couldn't contribute, but he does have rough edges to work through. The outfield offense was atrocious but it's actually starting to improve. Hernandez and Renfroe have hit a lot better lately. Kiké is actually league average or above at the moment. Renfroe's overall numbers aren't too good, but he has clearly been decent to good this month plus has been well above average offensively. Verdugo is above average altogether. So the outfield isn't a desperation crying need at the moment. And oh yeah, Danny Santana has come up and has whacked 2 homers in 2 games and is looking like a guy who might perform how he did in 2019 when he was last healthy and yup, he plays the outfield too. I don't expect Kiké to stay hot and I'm not sold on Renfroe continuing to play well, although you can sell me on him hitting lefties and playing great defense. You can even sell me on Santana being a low OBP guy if he doesn't hit going forward. There will be a need for what Duran can bring the Sox already and a greater need for what he can be if he continues to improve. I think he's been walking at a good clip. That would be essential for his development if he is to take over the reigns of the leadoff spot. Right now they have Kiké in a hot streak with a league average OBP leading off. I anticipate he'll cool off and his OBP will fall under .300. If Duran hones his strike zone selectivity to be more than a #9 hitter, but a leadoff hitter, that would be huge. And yes, he has to play defense. As it is, the Sox are among the worst teams at converting batted balls into outs. They need somebody that can improve that so he does have to work on his defense. Slapping him in LF and him watching balls off the monster carom past him, etc can be problematic. And frankly it would be better off for the next couple of years if he can develop into a decent CF, which is a bigger need, at least until Jimenez or Rosario is ready a few years down the road. The Sox have the luxury of taking it slowly with Duran. He will be up in Boston, I'd anticipate by July, and by then I'm sure they'll need him, but I would like to see a finished product coming up to the majors. I don't want to see a defensively challenged low OBP guy with power. They have plenty of that already. Duran is capable of being more, so let him fully develop and bring it up to Boston in about 6 - 8 weeks or so.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 23, 2021 11:14:11 GMT -5
Your sainted mother could have, perhaps, but Hanley Ramirez couldn't, and he was a formerly athletic shortstop. Manny Ramirez couldn't either, really.
JD is an exception that proves the rule: he plays out there, but only occasionally, and only because he's a 1.000 OPS bat. Do you think Duran will come up and immediately hit that well?
Manny Ramirez was just fine in LF. Everyone loves to show the clip of him cutting off the throw from Damon, but that was one play in 7 years. Manny made all the routine plays and many nice plays out there, as well. That’s not to say anyone can play out there, but Duran would be fine. If you think Manny was fine in the outfield then I don't know what to tell you. I watched him play and he looked real bad. The defensive metrics are in agreement with this, too. He had -11 dWAR in his 8 seasons in Boston. He could overcome that by putting up 40 oWAR, but, you know... Duran isn't going to be Manny Ramirez at the plate.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 23, 2021 11:17:32 GMT -5
They play half their games on the road. Plus, left field at Fenway might be small, but it has a ton of intricacies. Misread a carom off the Monster and that hitter is going to be running for a long time. It’s better for a wily OFer with limited range than a rangy OF with poor instincts. It’s the classic dilemma of whether you prioritize short-term production or long-term player development. For me, the MLB playing time opportunity at the moment is small enough that he’s better served spending a little more time in AAA. But that could change with injuries or continued poor performance from the OF rotation. How long is a little more time? If he is as bad as some people are suggesting, he will not become a major league outfielder ever. So what is it to be? He comes up in July or August or the waits until he learns to play LF like he was Beni or Dugie? Which is to say never. Maybe he is trade bait. Duran has exactly one game played in LF in his professional career. If that’s going to be his main role in the majors this year (and in coming years), he’d benefit from getting at least a couple dozen games in AAA at that position (not to mentioning hitting every day) before coming up.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,336
|
Post by radiohix on May 23, 2021 11:31:05 GMT -5
He won't be called up for at least 2 weeks lol
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on May 23, 2021 12:17:23 GMT -5
Manny Ramirez was just fine in LF. Everyone loves to show the clip of him cutting off the throw from Damon, but that was one play in 7 years. Manny made all the routine plays and many nice plays out there, as well. That’s not to say anyone can play out there, but Duran would be fine. If you think Manny was fine in the outfield then I don't know what to tell you. I watched him play and he looked real bad. The defensive metrics are in agreement with this, too. He had -11 dWAR in his 8 seasons in Boston. He could overcome that by putting up 40 oWAR, but, you know... Duran isn't going to be Manny Ramirez at the plate. And Derek Jeter had -14.7 dWAR in his career. And he has a room full of gold glove awards. All that said, I’m sure Duran could play the position better than Manny did.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on May 23, 2021 12:47:32 GMT -5
I think it’s important to note he was hitting like .242 before yesterday with some contact issues, let’s not act like he’s mastered AAA because he had a sensational game. It’s been like 3 weeks and it’s not like he had a ton of time or success in AA. Let’s see him get his new swing fully locked in, let’s get him some more reps in the OF, and maybe call him up in a couple months OK. What are the parameters of success you want to see? After Verdugo, Duran would probably be the best OF on the roster RIGHT NOW. They need to figure out a way to get him up. They are in a pennant race and he can help.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 23, 2021 13:07:14 GMT -5
OK. What are the parameters of success you want to see? After Verdugo, Duran would probably be the best OF on the roster RIGHT NOW. They need to figure out a way to get him up. They are in a pennant race and he can help. I donât think itâs a sure thing that heâs meaningfully better than their current options. Once you take into account defense, I think Renfroe is clearly better and itâs at least close with Kiké/Marwin (for what itâs worth, Steamer projects Duran to be a worse hitter than both those guys). I also donât think Franchy is as bad as heâs been to start the year.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on May 23, 2021 14:41:43 GMT -5
How long is a little more time? If he is as bad as some people are suggesting, he will not become a major league outfielder ever. So what is it to be? He comes up in July or August or the waits until he learns to play LF like he was Beni or Dugie? Which is to say never. Maybe he is trade bait. Duran has exactly one game played in LF in his professional career. If that’s going to be his main role in the majors this year (and in coming years), he’d benefit from getting at least a couple dozen games in AAA at that position (not to mentioning hitting every day) before coming up. As I've pointed out, the reads off the bat differ by OF position. Every game he plays in LF is a game he's learning that instead of CF. When you have a guy who's learning the OF, you really want to keep him at the position where his tools say he should play; you only start moving him around when a) you realize you misjudged the tools, or b) he picks it up really quickly. Example of the latter: Mookie in CF and then RF.
Thought: is there a correlation between speed of mastering the OF, and plate discipline metrics, specifically Z-Contact? It makes some sense neurologically. The correlation so far is 1.0, but that's not statistically significant with two data points (Mookie and Durran).
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 23, 2021 14:44:11 GMT -5
Duran is also hitless in 7 of his 17 starts, and is currently 0 for 4 today. His hits have come in bunches, and it's going to take a few more weeks to see if he can gain some consistency or if he's just building up stats beating on the worst of Triple-A pitching.
I also need to see him on the road a little more. Polar Park has been playing extremely hitter-friendly on some nights. His Iso is .130 on the road and .500 (not a typo) at home.
Also, too - there is a tendency with equating being fast with being a good defensive player. He has upside for certain but he is not there yet.
|
|
|
Post by Coreno on May 23, 2021 15:09:23 GMT -5
If you think Manny was fine in the outfield then I don't know what to tell you. I watched him play and he looked real bad. The defensive metrics are in agreement with this, too. He had -11 dWAR in his 8 seasons in Boston. He could overcome that by putting up 40 oWAR, but, you know... Duran isn't going to be Manny Ramirez at the plate. And Derek Jeter had -14.7 dWAR in his career. And he has a room full of gold glove awards. All that said, I’m sure Duran could play the position better than Manny did. I don't think this is making the argument you think it is...
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2021 15:51:22 GMT -5
Look, the point is not "what do you need to see?" The point is he's played 18 games.
The only reason he'd come up right now is if they were only holding him down for service time reasons. If they were going to call him up based on his performance in 18 games, they screwed up by sending him down in the first place.
In 2014, the Red Sox let Betts, who'd just spent 2 months making a mockery of AA (.355/.443/.551), play 23 games on Pawtucket with a .322/.425/.444 line. And that was with a front office that basically didn't value AAA as a development stop at all. And he wasn't ready yet and was back in AAA within a month.
In 2013, Bogaerts got 59 games in AAA, hitting .287/.369/.457, before coming up because they were desperate because Middlebrooks wasn't hitting at all and they needed a shot in the arm. And he really wasn't ready to excel - he put in great at-bats in that run... for a kid who really wasn't ready yet. Like he'd battle and battle and work a great walk, which WMB wasn't even doing.
There are plenty of reasons to call Duran up. I'm definitely not saying there aren't! He's hitting well and there is probably opportunity if they think he's ready. We have no idea how to factor in the Alt Site. Does that count as some AAA experience? I think teams would even tell you they don't know.
But there are plenty of reasons to keep him in AAA. He's seen 2 pitching staffs. I'm not sure how 6-game series play into the "see the league a second time" thing - you'd think they can scout ways to pitch a guy by game 6. His defense does need work. For a guy who's fast he's just 4 for 6 on steal attempts.
This isn't necessarily meaningful, but it's an interesting thing that I think sort of shows my point of how small this sample size is - he hasn't even played a team on the road at its home park yet. He went off against Syracuse, who has the worst pitching staff in the AAA East. He's been neutralized in 9 of 12 games against Buffalo (although he went off in the other 3 for 3, 3, and 5 hits).
You can certainly make the point either way, but to act like it's nuts to think he could legitimately not be ready is to ignore a whole lot of stuff.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on May 24, 2021 6:05:11 GMT -5
The home runs I've seen Duran hit on video mostly seem on pitches middle in and lower in the zone...classic location for lefties to do damage...With only a 63% contact rate, I wonder if it's pitch recognition and/or particular pitches/location that give him trouble....Could he have pronounced vulnerabilities like Franchy and Chavis with high strikes?
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on May 24, 2021 15:57:30 GMT -5
If Duran is as bad in the OF as some of these posts indicate, then where does that leave him? It would eliminate him as a CF and probably as a RF in Fenway.
He'd play LF, meaning that for him be an impact player his offense would have to be significantly better than league average. His offense would have to be pretty decent to make up for the WAR he's not putting up on defense and also to compete with the production of the guys in the league playing this offense-first position.
He sounds like a potential fringe starter. It bothers me that he's our No. 3 prospect. CB has done a good job of adding depth to the system but it just shows how difficult it is to add impact at the top. It makes July 11 a very important night.
|
|
|