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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 4, 2021 9:57:12 GMT -5
Marwin has made some pretty amazing defensive plays at several positions, helping win some games. He also has had a few good offensive years; the best with Cora (mostly on the road) during the trash can debacle. So he is currently valuable in the field, with potential at the plate, and that immeasurable Clubhouse presence on a team that likes each other. I donâÃÂÃÂt think Marwin is holding Duran down. This OF is currently strong. Both Renfroe and Kiké have been pleasant surprises, and Franchy is increasing his value exponentially in AAA. The info from Eric helped clarify this for me. But I am still impatient and frustrated about this. Before this last week: Kiké, 59 SO, 17 BB.
This week: 3 SO, 6 BB.
Odds of getting that split given his overall K and BB numbers: 1 in 95.
Adding to the sense that it might be a real improvement in his not chasing pitches:
.385 / .515 / .885 in 33 PA. I'll have the Statcast expected line tomorrow. Teaser: still real good.
More on Marwin tomorrow, too.
.348 / .487 / .726 expected line for Kiké the last week. "Just" a .503 xwOBA instead of his actual .566. His wRC+ is up to 100. His aWAR ("a" for average of bWAR and fWAR, but also in this case for "actual" as Statcast has his defense as halfway between DRS and UZR) is 1.75, which of course projects to 3.5. His OF defense should regress somewhat to the mean but he seems to have a real chance of having a better second half at the plate.
Re Marwin, he clearly changed his swing in 2017 in a way that turned his old cold zones into hot ones. So it did have nothing to do with the trashcans. He started out insanely hot, and once you smooth out the streaks and slumps, he got steadily less good into the first part of 2018, when the league had finished figuring out his new version and his numbers stabilized.
But this change also transformed him from a guy who did most of his damage against bad pitching and struggled against elite ones, like closers, into the opposite, a guy who is nearly indifferent to the quality of the opposing pitcher. I call that the Enrique Wilson Effect, after the Yankees utility man who had a career .638 OPS but (infamously) a 1.062 in 27 career PA against Pedro.
Truly elite pitchers flatten the curve of what hitters do against them by being extra tough on good hitters, but the hitter has a say in what happens, too. Part of Cashman's error with the MFY's was loading up not just on RH hitters, but on guys who fattened their numbers on bad pitchers but did relatively limited damage against good ones -- Stanton and Sanchez, as well as Judge early in his career.
Marwin has been the second best hitter on the team (after Arroyo) in how much better or worse he hits depending on the leverage component created by inning and score (as opposed to runners on and outs). Which is pretty much largely driven by how well you hit elite relievers relative to everyone else. Those numbers will be in the Sox Clutch thread, maybe as soon as today.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 5, 2021 23:21:22 GMT -5
Marwin Gonzalez has hamstring tightness.
It's time Chan.
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 6, 2021 1:30:14 GMT -5
And they just opened up a 40-man spot. The Red Sox have transferred right-hander Eduard Bazardo from the minor league injured list to the 60-day IL, the team announced. Doing so will entitle the 25-year-old to MLB pay and service time while he rehabs but creates an opening on the 40-man roster. mlbtraderumorsCordero still seems like the logical callup though...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2021 10:32:35 GMT -5
As I said elsewhere, I wouldn't assume opening the 40-man spot now means they plan to use it imminently. If the move procedurally resets Bazardo's clock, they needed to do it now in order to have him available for September call-ups.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 6, 2021 10:45:59 GMT -5
I understand the eagerness people have to see what Duran can do in the majors. The last few Sox games should, nonetheless, give people pause. Hernandez' catches, hits, and especially throws have reset the game state in favor of the team. Ask yourself how that would have changed if he wasn't out there and Duran was. Defense matters.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 6, 2021 11:36:31 GMT -5
i hope the calculus for the Duran call up isn't overly influenced by the team's current success. There is certainly reason for "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" bias, but if we want to see him progress as a future part of the franchise, getting AB's with this team, in this atmosphere, has to be a top consideration for the FO. I am not really concerned if that is until Aug / Sept, but I don't want guys who are underperforming and/or roster crunch factoring into that equation if the evaluation on the call up says he should come sooner. Need to balance current and future franchise health.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 6, 2021 11:45:34 GMT -5
I understand the eagerness people have to see what Duran can do in the majors. The last few Sox games should, nonetheless, give people pause. Hernandez' catches, hits, and especially throws have reset the game state in favor of the team. Ask yourself how that would have changed if he wasn't out there and Duran was. Defense matters. That's kind of where I'm at for the time being. Hernandez is a good 2b as well so it's not hard to envision a platoon situation where Duran plays CF against righties and Hernandez does against lefties (with Arroyo at 2b) and then mixes and matches against righties with Arroyo, while shifting to CF regardless as a late inning defensive CF. That vision was easier to have for me when Hernandez is slumping and it's still not that hard for me to have that vision when he was going well because when he was he'd still hack at too many pitches and you'd know that the slump dropping his numbers to 90 OPS+ or whatever was going to occur, but this hot streak has been different. His OBP rise has been fueled by him hitting better and a part of that appears to be improved plate discipline. I've noticed (or think I've noticed) that he's been more accepting of taking his walks, which makes me think there can be more of what Cora envisioned when he penciled him in for the leadoff role. That said, I still feel like the best 26 man roster for the post-season involves having Duran, his LF bat, and his speed and power on the roster. I also wouldn't trade Duran away thinking we have Hernandez for CF this year and next so Duran's expendable. I feel like with experience Duran will improve defensively and there's enough there to be a force with his bat in the leadoff spot. But with Hernandez getting on base, supplying strong defense in CF, I'm ok with being more patient with Duran - as long as he's up at some point in the near future because with his speed and power, he does have contributions he can make with the club, more than I'd think that they get out of Santana.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2021 15:52:30 GMT -5
i hope the calculus for the Duran call up isn't overly influenced by the team's current success. I think I disagree with this, and pretty strongly. When it comes to an MLB call-up, the team's current state is arguably what should be the foremost consideration for whether to call a guy up, no? You don't get a call-up to the majors just because you deserve it - you get called up to the majors because you will make the club better. I get your point about whether it will make him better down the line, but I'm not sure that it really means that much to get him into a pennant race at this instant. The Boston Red Sox should be in that position more often than not. He'll get that experience. But if they think calling him up now makes the current club worse (for the full season - not saying worse in the very short term but a better playoff team, in which case yeah pull the trigger), then no, they shouldn't call him up. And again, I'm of the mind that it might be time to get him up - I'm not arguing against the call-up. Just want to push back on the idea that they need to bring him up now for his development - I'm not sure that's true.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jul 6, 2021 16:07:20 GMT -5
Between position, projection, and even the way he gets his power, I keep thinking Duran comp is Ellsbury.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 6, 2021 16:11:41 GMT -5
Ellsbury never had the sort of power Duran has been generating outside of his outlier year in 2011. I don't think they are that similar.
Add: This is a bit of apples to oranges - majors vs. minors - but it says something about the players I think. Duran's ground out to air out ratio (GO/AO) is .82 in his minor league career to this point. By comparison Ellsbury's major league GO/AO stands at 2.15. So my memory served me correctly, he just pounded out a lot of ground balls - for hits or not. Duran gets a lot more balls in the air. And these days he's getting them further into the air!
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 6, 2021 17:02:04 GMT -5
I understand the eagerness people have to see what Duran can do in the majors. The last few Sox games should, nonetheless, give people pause. Hernandez' catches, hits, and especially throws have reset the game state in favor of the team. Ask yourself how that would have changed if he wasn't out there and Duran was. Defense matters. Yes, Kiké has rewritten the script, but Santana remains part of the bigger script and it is not hard to see Duran being an improvement in that part of the equation. If Duran comes up and hits, he solves the leadoff concern. Admittedly, Kiké would need to go back to the infield, and that move does not make the OF better. It might make the IF better. There are no guarantees with most personnel moves, but replacing Santana with Duran, or Franchy, seems like a no-brainer.
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Post by patford on Jul 6, 2021 19:25:38 GMT -5
Good to hear Ian say positive things about Duran's defense on the new podcast. This was tempered a bit by discussion of using Duran at 2B (which I agree with) as well as Chris saying he would be happy if Duran became a league average CF.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 7, 2021 3:11:22 GMT -5
I understand the eagerness people have to see what Duran can do in the majors. The last few Sox games should, nonetheless, give people pause. Hernandez' catches, hits, and especially throws have reset the game state in favor of the team. Ask yourself how that would have changed if he wasn't out there and Duran was. Defense matters. Yes, Kiké has rewritten the script, but Santana remains part of the bigger script and it is not hard to see Duran being an improvement in that part of the equation. If Duran comes up and hits, he solves the leadoff concern. Admittedly, Kiké would need to go back to the infield, and that move does not make the OF better. It might make the IF better. There are no guarantees with most personnel moves, but replacing Santana with Duran, or Franchy, seems like a no-brainer. Totally agree. I dont think anybody thinks Duran should be in any way replacing Kiké. Itâs Dany Santana ( or Marwin). The two although somewhat different are a bit redundant. Wouldnât surprise me if one finds himself on the DL tmrw or the next day. That said Iâm good with Franchy or Duran given a chance.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 7, 2021 6:39:11 GMT -5
I think I disagree with this, and pretty strongly. When it comes to an MLB call-up, the team's current state is arguably what should be the foremost consideration for whether to call a guy up, no? You don't get a call-up to the majors just because you deserve it - you get called up to the majors because you will make the club better. I get your point about whether it will make him better down the line, but I'm not sure that it really means that much to get him into a pennant race at this instant. The Boston Red Sox should be in that position more often than not. He'll get that experience. But if they think calling him up now makes the current club worse (for the full season - not saying worse in the very short term but a better playoff team, in which case yeah pull the trigger), then no, they shouldn't call him up. And again, I'm of the mind that it might be time to get him up - I'm not arguing against the call-up. Just want to push back on the idea that they need to bring him up now for his development - I'm not sure that's true. that is fair. To me the first question an organization faces, absent some mitigating injury factor that would induce a quicker than desired call up, would be .....Is prospect X ready to play in the majors? If the answer to that is in the affirmative (understanding errors can be made on that determination), then I don't want someone who isn't playing well or has no long term future with the club taking that spot. We have put up with some underperformance at a lot of positions this year. I have had a hard time believing that Duran is going to severely underperform said level of play. Yes, I do believe that playing these games, being in this atmosphere, can make him a better ballplayer. I will trust the FO on the timing. However, i have been high on Duran's abilities for a while now and i think he can be a difference maker offensively. Hopefully the defense plays well enough.
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Post by patford on Jul 7, 2021 21:21:19 GMT -5
More positive comments about Duran's OF play in a new interview with Bloom. sports.yahoo.com/chaim-bloom-shares-updates-red-205331095.html"The one thing that's pretty clear is he's a heck of a lot closer than he was when the season started. I think it's been a steady, upward trajectory for him in Worcester in terms of his comfort in the outfield, his jumps, his ability to read the ball off the bat, and all that adds up to making plays. We know he has the speed and the athleticism to make pretty much any play out there. You guys have seen it, it's a high bar to be in our outfield right now, so we want to make sure that if he's ready to come, then he's ready to contribute there."
This is encouraging coming from Bloom. While it's true Bloom tries to put a positive spin on just about everything if you read between the lines when he's commenting on players he does not offer unjustified praise. If Duran wasn't making significant progress and looking much better Bloom would likely have said Duran is "working hard everyday to improve and the Sox are pleased with the effort he has been putting in." In other words he'd dodge the question in a way which gives away the answer without knocking the player. In this case he specifically positively addresses the two main concerns (jumps and reads) when it comes to Duran's defense.
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 7, 2021 22:17:26 GMT -5
More positive comments about Duran's OF play in a new interview with Bloom. sports.yahoo.com/chaim-bloom-shares-updates-red-205331095.html"The one thing that's pretty clear is he's a heck of a lot closer than he was when the season started. I think it's been a steady, upward trajectory for him in Worcester in terms of his comfort in the outfield, his jumps, his ability to read the ball off the bat, and all that adds up to making plays. We know he has the speed and the athleticism to make pretty much any play out there. You guys have seen it, it's a high bar to be in our outfield right now, so we want to make sure that if he's ready to come, then he's ready to contribute there."
This is encouraging coming from Bloom. While it's true Bloom tries to put a positive spin on just about everything if you read between the lines when he's commenting on players he does not offer unjustified praise. If Duran wasn't making significant progress and looking much better Bloom would likely have said Duran is "working hard everyday to improve and the Sox are pleased with the effort he has been putting in." In other words he'd dodge the question in a way which gives away the answer without knocking the player. In this case he specifically positively addresses the two main concerns (jumps and reads) when it comes to Duran's defense. And the answer to the question is? A. This weekend B. Immediately after the AS game C. Late July/early August D. September E. Makes the team next year F. Never gets there
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 7, 2021 22:28:47 GMT -5
The guy definitely has some political chops. You can read whatever you'd like into that statement. The high bar thing would seem to be a barrier. On the other hand he's a heck of a lot closer than he was when the season started begs for a base line. Where did they think he was when things kicked off? You can navel gaze on the quotes for a while!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 7, 2021 23:38:11 GMT -5
More positive comments about Duran's OF play in a new interview with Bloom. sports.yahoo.com/chaim-bloom-shares-updates-red-205331095.html"The one thing that's pretty clear is he's a heck of a lot closer than he was when the season started. I think it's been a steady, upward trajectory for him in Worcester in terms of his comfort in the outfield, his jumps, his ability to read the ball off the bat, and all that adds up to making plays. We know he has the speed and the athleticism to make pretty much any play out there. You guys have seen it, it's a high bar to be in our outfield right now, so we want to make sure that if he's ready to come, then he's ready to contribute there."
This is encouraging coming from Bloom. While it's true Bloom tries to put a positive spin on just about everything if you read between the lines when he's commenting on players he does not offer unjustified praise. If Duran wasn't making significant progress and looking much better Bloom would likely have said Duran is "working hard everyday to improve and the Sox are pleased with the effort he has been putting in." In other words he'd dodge the question in a way which gives away the answer without knocking the player. In this case he specifically positively addresses the two main concerns (jumps and reads) when it comes to Duran's defense. And the answer to the question is? A. This weekend B. Immediately after the AS game C. Late July/early August D. September E. Makes the team next year F. Never gets there I think it's quite clear.
They would call him up without hesitation if an OF needs to go on the IL. (They might call up Franchy instead, if he's still in the phase of taking grounders at first, and depending on who gets hurt.)
Otherwise, September 1. There's no way they go back to 13 pitchers when they have so many viable arms, and the 14th guy is going to reduce the workload on everyone else. And I don't see them essentialy swapping Marwin for Duran on the bench. The upgrade over a month or six weeks isn't worth the decrease in depth and the downgrade in September, and for October roster possibilities.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 8, 2021 5:48:36 GMT -5
Just a thought. So far Wong doesn't look like he's not ready. He's not stinking up the joint. If the Sox traded Plaweki, Wong would provide the flexibility to add Duran.
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 8, 2021 6:22:56 GMT -5
Wong is very good behind the dish, but his bat just isn't. He only has 11 PA in the majors, but 7 of them ended in a K. That's 63% K rate. In his 64 PA in AAA this year he has a .433 OPS. You can't afford that during a pennant race.
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art
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Post by art on Jul 8, 2021 12:40:17 GMT -5
It seems to me that some are saying that Duran should replace Hernandez in CF and that Hernandez should be moved to 2B. This sounds like Duran replacing Arroyo in the usual starting lineup. I'm not so sure I like that idea.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 8, 2021 13:26:49 GMT -5
It seems to me that some are saying that Duran should replace Hernandez in CF and that Hernandez should be moved to 2B. This sounds like Duran replacing Arroyo in the usual starting lineup. I'm not so sure I like that idea. I have been critical of Kiké but right now he is top 10 in MLB with a 1.1 dWAR, nothing to sneeze at. Vazquez is right there also at 1, both top 10.
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 8, 2021 15:05:03 GMT -5
It seems to me that some are saying that Duran should replace Hernandez in CF and that Hernandez should be moved to 2B. This sounds like Duran replacing Arroyo in the usual starting lineup. I'm not so sure I like that idea. How about Kiké to 1B? I keep wishing/hoping that Bobby gets his act together, but introducing Duran as a starter seems to mean that Dalbec or Arroyo or Kiké loses his starting berth.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jul 8, 2021 15:12:18 GMT -5
It seems to me that some are saying that Duran should replace Hernandez in CF and that Hernandez should be moved to 2B. This sounds like Duran replacing Arroyo in the usual starting lineup. I'm not so sure I like that idea. How about Kiké to 1B? I keep wishing/hoping that Bobby gets his act together, but introducing Duran as a starter seems to mean that Dalbec or Arroyo or Kiké loses his starting berth. Seems pointless to waste Kiké's glove at 1B while you let Duran play below average defense in the outfield.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2021 15:27:58 GMT -5
It seems to me that some are saying that Duran should replace Hernandez in CF and that Hernandez should be moved to 2B. This sounds like Duran replacing Arroyo in the usual starting lineup. I'm not so sure I like that idea. How about Kiké to 1B? I keep wishing/hoping that Bobby gets his act together, but introducing Duran as a starter seems to mean that Dalbec or Arroyo or Kiké loses his starting berth. By Dalbec "getting his act together," do you mean improving on the .330 wOBA/105 wRC+ he's put up over the last two months? That in itself is better than Kiké's been, so you'd be making offense at first worse in exchange for... making defense in CF worse. And of course an average offensive performance from Duran would be significantly better than what he projects to.
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