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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 8, 2021 15:34:38 GMT -5
More positive comments about Duran's OF play in a new interview with Bloom. sports.yahoo.com/chaim-bloom-shares-updates-red-205331095.html"The one thing that's pretty clear is he's a heck of a lot closer than he was when the season started. I think it's been a steady, upward trajectory for him in Worcester in terms of his comfort in the outfield, his jumps, his ability to read the ball off the bat, and all that adds up to making plays. We know he has the speed and the athleticism to make pretty much any play out there. You guys have seen it, it's a high bar to be in our outfield right now, so we want to make sure that if he's ready to come, then he's ready to contribute there."
This is encouraging coming from Bloom. While it's true Bloom tries to put a positive spin on just about everything if you read between the lines when he's commenting on players he does not offer unjustified praise. If Duran wasn't making significant progress and looking much better Bloom would likely have said Duran is "working hard everyday to improve and the Sox are pleased with the effort he has been putting in." In other words he'd dodge the question in a way which gives away the answer without knocking the player. In this case he specifically positively addresses the two main concerns (jumps and reads) when it comes to Duran's defense. I agree with you that the positive statements are very good sign. However, my primary take on this was 'he's not yet good enough defensively to promote to the majors'. This is what we have assumed for some time, so it's not surprising. The 'high bar' may imply they want to keep him in CF rather than hide him in LF.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 8, 2021 15:37:58 GMT -5
It seems to me that some are saying that Duran should replace Hernandez in CF and that Hernandez should be moved to 2B. This sounds like Duran replacing Arroyo in the usual starting lineup. I'm not so sure I like that idea. How about Kiké to 1B? I keep wishing/hoping that Bobby gets his act together, but introducing Duran as a starter seems to mean that Dalbec or Arroyo or Kiké loses his starting berth. I think you're trying too hard to find a spot for Kiké. Marwin Gonzalez and Danny Santana have been nearly full-time players for this team. Since Kiké can play every position, it's easy for him to take away their at-bats while relieving Duran in center - once he's called up.
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 8, 2021 16:25:17 GMT -5
How about Kiké to 1B? I keep wishing/hoping that Bobby gets his act together, but introducing Duran as a starter seems to mean that Dalbec or Arroyo or Kiké loses his starting berth. By Dalbec "getting his act together," do you mean improving on the .330 wOBA/105 wRC+ he's put up over the last two months? That in itself is better than Kiké's been, so you'd be making offense at first worse in exchange for... making defense in CF worse. And of course an average offensive performance from Duran would be significantly better than what he projects to. I believe I was talking about the Dalbec who hit .200 in May, .237 in June and is hitting .214 so far in July. I was talking about the Dalbec whose OBP are .243 in May, .280 in June and .214 in July. I am talking about a Kiké who is hitting home runs at roughly the same rate as Dalbec. I want Dalbec to succeed. He is potentially a very solid power hitter. But he is not arguably hitting better than Kiké. As for Duran, if you believe he is a less than average hitter, then you have a massive disagreement with his ratings as our number two prospect and number 29 in MLB.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 8, 2021 16:32:27 GMT -5
By Dalbec "getting his act together," do you mean improving on the .330 wOBA/105 wRC+ he's put up over the last two months? That in itself is better than Kiké's been, so you'd be making offense at first worse in exchange for... making defense in CF worse. And of course an average offensive performance from Duran would be significantly better than what he projects to. I believe I was talking about the Dalbec who hit .200 in May, .237 in June and is hitting .214 so far in July. I was talking about the Dalbec whose OBP are .243 in May, .280 in June and .214 in July. I am talking about a Kiké who is hitting home runs at roughly the same rate as Dalbec. I want Dalbec to succeed. He is potentially a very solid power hitter. But he is not arguably hitting better than Kiké. As for Duran, if you believe he is a less than average hitter, then you have a massive disagreement with his ratings as our number two prospect and number 29 in MLB. So you want to take one of the most skilled defensive players on the Sox and move him down the defensive spectrum to the lowest defensive skilled position on the spectrum? I want Duran up as well - I share that desire with you, but wedging Kiké in at 1b isn't the way to go about it. I think at some point there'll be a way to get Duran ABs in CF against righties, Kiké ABs in CF against lefties and some ABs against some righties at 2b, perhaps play him a day here and there at SS or 3B if need be, have Kiké in an OF spot if they want to give a day off here or there against a tough righty for Renfroe or rest Verdugo a day here or there against a tough lefty. They'll probably either platoon Dalbec with Cordero or find a lefty bat on the market who can play 1b.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2021 16:34:30 GMT -5
By Dalbec "getting his act together," do you mean improving on the .330 wOBA/105 wRC+ he's put up over the last two months? That in itself is better than Kiké's been, so you'd be making offense at first worse in exchange for... making defense in CF worse. And of course an average offensive performance from Duran would be significantly better than what he projects to. I believe I was talking about the Dalbec who hit .200 in May, .237 in June and is hitting .214 so far in July. I was talking about the Dalbec whose OBP are .243 in May, .280 in June and .214 in July. I am talking about a Kiké who is hitting home runs at roughly the same rate as Dalbec. I want Dalbec to succeed. He is potentially a very solid power hitter. But he is not arguably hitting better than Kiké. As for Duran, if you believe he is a less than average hitter, then you have a massive disagreement with his ratings as our number two prospect and number 29 in MLB. Where are you getting Duran as the #29 prospect in baseball? Haven’t seen that anywhere - best I’ve seen is MLB’s top 100 has him at 86
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2021 16:49:57 GMT -5
By Dalbec "getting his act together," do you mean improving on the .330 wOBA/105 wRC+ he's put up over the last two months? That in itself is better than Kiké's been, so you'd be making offense at first worse in exchange for... making defense in CF worse. And of course an average offensive performance from Duran would be significantly better than what he projects to. I believe I was talking about the Dalbec who hit .200 in May, .237 in June and is hitting .214 so far in July. I was talking about the Dalbec whose OBP are .243 in May, .280 in June and .214 in July. I am talking about a Kiké who is hitting home runs at roughly the same rate as Dalbec. I want Dalbec to succeed. He is potentially a very solid power hitter. But he is not arguably hitting better than Kiké. As for Duran, if you believe he is a less than average hitter, then you have a massive disagreement with his ratings as our number two prospect and number 29 in MLB. He literally has a higher wRC+ in the last two months (105 vs. 103). Kiké's been better over the last month, but not by a lot; Dalbec has hit .294/.329/.544 since June 10th while Kiké has hit .250/.364/.511 - 130 vs. 134 wRC+. You "keep wishing/hoping that Bobby gets his act together," but you seem not to be seeing the extent to which he has... The broader point is that you are not obviously improving the team's offense by taking Dalbec out of the lineup, and you are unquestionably making the team's defense worse by taking Kiké out of CF.
How do I have a "massive disagreement" with Duran's ratings? He projects, by this site's metrics, as an average regular, and it would be pretty unusual for that projection to be fulfilled immediately upon his arriving in the major leagues. I wouldn't even be surprised if he ends up an all-star some day, but if he doesn't go through growing pains as the league makes adjustments to him he'd be one of the very few young players who'd avoid that fate. Vlad Guerrero Jr. put up all of 0.6 fWAR in his first two seasons/750 PAs...
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 8, 2021 17:06:06 GMT -5
That's all fine and dandy but: SHINY NEW TOY & I WANT IT. NOW!
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Post by jimgosger on Jul 8, 2021 17:40:23 GMT -5
It is perhaps more likely than not that a player brought up to the Majors will tend to struggle at first. But there are also many cases like Jacoby Ellsbury in 2007 who played 33 games for the Sox at the end of that season and in the playoffs. He hit 353/394/509 with an OPS+ of 131. In 2008 and 2009 he came back to earth and had an OPS+ of 88 and 98 respectively. But that boost they got with Ellsbury replacing Crisp that year helped to win a WS. Oh yeah, Cora was on that 2007 team.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 8, 2021 18:03:24 GMT -5
I believe I was talking about the Dalbec who hit .200 in May, .237 in June and is hitting .214 so far in July. I was talking about the Dalbec whose OBP are .243 in May, .280 in June and .214 in July. I am talking about a Kiké who is hitting home runs at roughly the same rate as Dalbec. I want Dalbec to succeed. He is potentially a very solid power hitter. But he is not arguably hitting better than Kiké. As for Duran, if you believe he is a less than average hitter, then you have a massive disagreement with his ratings as our number two prospect and number 29 in MLB. Where are you getting Duran as the #29 prospect in baseball? Haven’t seen that anywhere - best I’ve seen is MLB’s top 100 has him at 86 BA updated last month: www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/06/boston-red-sox-prospect-jarren-duran-leaps-up-to-no-29-in-baseball-america-top-100-triston-casas-up-to-no-27.html
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 8, 2021 18:07:13 GMT -5
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 8, 2021 18:18:42 GMT -5
My thanks to ctfisher for digging out the BA quote. Quite frankly, I would have ignored the jibe because the thread was getting argumentative, and was beginning to remind me of the old quotation, oft attributed to Mark Twain, "there are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics".
I purposely chose whole months because anyone can go back and find those data attached to any batter through the MLB and MILB box scores by clicking on the players names. And those data do not irrefutably favor Kiké over Dalbec.
But there is more to the misattribution of numbers going on here. Someone who should know better has taken the "5" given Duran by the Forum as his likely performance. The fact is that the Forum rates no one above a 5--not Duran, not Casas, not Downs, not Houck, not anyone. By that misuse of numbers, the Sox had better pack it in and move to Toledo or Fargo because they are bound to be a minor league quality team in the not so distant future. Now, I know that the person did not mean that, but that is the logical extension of using the "5" to dismiss Duran from consideration.
So, I guess I did get caught up in the argument after all. Oh well, I'm still a rookie here.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 8, 2021 18:33:46 GMT -5
It is perhaps more likely than not that a player brought up to the Majors will tend to struggle at first. But there are also many cases like Jacoby Ellsbury in 2007 who played 33 games for the Sox at the end of that season and in the playoffs. He hit 353/394/509 with an OPS+ of 131. In 2008 and 2009 he came back to earth and had an OPS+ of 88 and 98 respectively. But that boost they got with Ellsbury replacing Crisp that year helped to win a WS. Oh yeah, Cora was on that 2007 team. Ellsbury is a great example of a really common pattern: prospect comes up and mashes; league makes adjustments; prospect has to learn to adjust to those adjustments, which sometimes happens right away (Betts) but much more often takes a year or two (Ellsbury, Devers, Bogaerts).
I could see Duran doing great for a few weeks - for 33 games, even - before falling back to earth. If anything, maybe that's a good argument in favor of a September call-up: take the league by surprise and don't give them time to make adjustments before the playoffs...
soxinsf, I honestly don't understand what point you're making about Duran's 5 rating. SP projects him as an average regular with a ceiling of an impact everyday player and a floor of an up-and-down guy. Are you saying their evaluation is off? What rating would you give him, and why do you differ from the consensus?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 8, 2021 18:58:40 GMT -5
What has made it more difficult for players is data. Statcast is quick to quantify a players tendencies so you have to adapt very quickly. Once you do, an updated data stream is available and it starts all over again. It's the book pitchers used to pass around about hitters running on Internet time.
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 8, 2021 19:13:11 GMT -5
soxinsf, I honestly don't understand what point you're making about Duran's 5 rating. SP projects him as an average regular with a ceiling of an impact everyday player and a floor of an up-and-down guy. Are you saying their evaluation is off? What rating would you give him, and why do you differ from the consensus?
OK. You said he projects as an average regular. My point is that the Forum is careful not to overstate the unknowns regardless of how favorably the person is regarded. I get that. Frankly, because I have liked your posts and reasoning, I suspect that you take the same approach. But that "5" is not an upside projection, and nothing in your use of it showing that you could see the "4-6" rating given Duran, higher than which is only accorded to Casas.
I use this word with care. The description of Duran as an average regular and the reference to "5" was an attempt to "denigrate" his potential. Yes, you did say he might be better at some point, but essentially, you were misusing the "5" to buttress your argument that Duran did not belong on this team. Now, I don't begrudge you your opinion. Opinions are like noses and other orifices. We all have them. I just object to the way you used the "5". I took that number totally out of context, which is the point of the Twain quotation in the first place.
Now let's move forward. I want Duran up yesteday. If he fails, so be it. If he succeeds, the Sox have a leadoff hitter and remove a dark hole from the lineup. Peace, brother.
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 8, 2021 19:18:02 GMT -5
What has made it more difficult for players is data. Statcast is quick to quantify a players tendencies so you have to adapt very quickly. Once you do, an updated data stream is available and it starts all over again. It's the book pitchers used to pass around about hitters running on Internet time. As long as we are on the subject, it was Statcast that helped convince me that Kiké was a better fielder than I gave him credit for being by rating him as one of the top players at getting the jump on balls hit to the outfield. But Statcast also rates him as average speed at best, and for straight speed, if Duran has elite speed and Kiké covers 90 feet chasing a long fly and Duran does the same, Duran, with elite speed, gets there six to eight feet better if he makes a good, not great read. I am not making this up. It's in the numbers. Oh, OK, I had to project Duran by using the top ten OF for speed.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 8, 2021 20:03:50 GMT -5
Running speed need not equal playing speed. Then, of course, there is route taken -- 90 feet might equal 105 feet with a poor route.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 8, 2021 23:15:56 GMT -5
That is the issue. As recently as the Olympic trials, he was having problems. We've also watched him turn the wrong way on balls hit directly at him. That stuff is hard and it takes practice. He's getting that in Worcester but if the Sox end up in a tight pennant race and he is called up, I'll bet they will be very careful with when he plays and who he plays against.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 9, 2021 0:13:50 GMT -5
That is the issue. As recently as the Olympic trials, he was having problems. We've also watched him turn the wrong way on balls hit directly at him. That stuff is hard and it takes practice. He's getting that in Worcester but if the Sox end up in a tight pennant race and he is called up, I'll bet they will be very careful with when he plays and who he plays against. JD Martinez has played 143 innings in the field. If Duran comes up and he hits, he will play. Simple as that.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2021 0:35:50 GMT -5
soxinsf, I honestly don't understand what point you're making about Duran's 5 rating. SP projects him as an average regular with a ceiling of an impact everyday player and a floor of an up-and-down guy. Are you saying their evaluation is off? What rating would you give him, and why do you differ from the consensus? OK. You said he projects as an average regular. My point is that the Forum is careful not to overstate the unknowns regardless of how favorably the person is regarded. I get that. Frankly, because I have liked your posts and reasoning, I suspect that you take the same approach. But that "5" is not an upside projection, and nothing in your use of it showing that you could see the "4-6" rating given Duran, higher than which is only accorded to Casas. I use this word with care. The description of Duran as an average regular and the reference to "5" was an attempt to "denigrate" his potential. Yes, you did say he might be better at some point, but essentially, you were misusing the "5" to buttress your argument that Duran did not belong on this team. Now, I don't begrudge you your opinion. Opinions are like noses and other orifices. We all have them. I just object to the way you used the "5". I took that number totally out of context, which is the point of the Twain quotation in the first place. Now let's move forward. I want Duran up yesteday. If he fails, so be it. If he succeeds, the Sox have a leadoff hitter and remove a dark hole from the lineup. Peace, brother. Just to say again... I'm not against calling him up! If they did it tomorrow I'd be excited to see him play. But this back and forth has sort of clarified the team's options for me, and I can understand why they haven't done it yet. And what's more, I don't think the calculus really changes for the team until there's an injury or some other change to the roster. I would not be surprised if we don't see him until September.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 9, 2021 17:50:17 GMT -5
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,285
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Post by radiohix on Jul 9, 2021 17:58:34 GMT -5
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Post by benzinger on Jul 14, 2021 18:41:33 GMT -5
Being reported he is going to be added to the roster. Heck of a week. Draft Mayer and Duran gets the call up!! Exciting times. Who goes from the 40 man roster to make room? Santana? Andriese? Brice?
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 15, 2021 1:55:30 GMT -5
Santana is my guess. Either DL or ...
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 15, 2021 6:49:30 GMT -5
So I always thought Duran would come up and play LF/RF but it sounds like they might start him in CF. I had these thoughts this morning about Duran while I was stalking his stats and seeing how jacked he is compared to how he came into the system. That's a real testament to his work ethic, and that has also manifested itself in his ability to change his swing. Changing your swing for more power isn't an easy thing to do, some guys can never make that adjustment and Duran seems to have done it with only marginal effects on his hit tool.
When I saw a picture Chris Hatfield posted showing Duran with his presumably GF elated with joy after calling up it really made me want to root for this kid even more. Seeing someone reach their childhood dream after putting in the work is such an awesome thing. I hope he takes this opportunity and runs with him, I hope he's a .850 OPS regular MLBer, I hope he smashes all expectations and transitions his work ethic into becoming a decent centerfielder.
Maybe it's the tincture talking or just pure homerism, but I'm setting my expectations high for this kid. He deserves it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2021 10:58:20 GMT -5
Santana is already on the IL. I'm not sure, but I think I recall you either can't DFA a guy on the IL or it's frowned upon. And they're not going to phantom 60-day him if he's not justifiably that hurt.
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