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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 29, 2021 16:38:08 GMT -5
You got to give a guy 300 ABs before making a solid opinion on him. Look at Bobby. He’s finally looking comfortable and patient. He’s not trying to be a hero and hit everything over the wall. That comes with more ABs and experience. If Durans a .270 20 homer and 20 stolen bases guy with slightly above avg defense then he’s better then JBJ and a lot cheaper! Give the damn kid some time and stop expecting everyone to come up and be all stars.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 30, 2021 7:02:56 GMT -5
I think the issue is there's a lot of ground between "he's a future stud" and "he's a AAAA player" that doesn't appear that folks are accounting for. Duran almost certainly falls in between.
If he can get to 50 hit, 50 power, 45 defense, 70 speed, whatever arm, that's absolutely playable. He wouldn't be an all-star but he'd be fine out there.
Based on the amount of continued tweaking of his swing we're seeing in real time (cut down on leg lift, just moved his hands back up between where he used to be and where he'd been previously), I feel like he needs another offseason in the lab to figure things out. We'll see where he comes out of that
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,383
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Post by radiohix on Aug 30, 2021 21:35:12 GMT -5
My skepticism isn't the result of the handful at bats he got at the MLB level. His contact issues aren't a direct result of him "going to the lab" and completely revamping his swing. He's been a mediocre contact hitter even when he was slapping the ball. He run a 19.5% K% facing High A pitchers as a 22 yo with college baseball experience, it went up to 23.9% K% in AA (with a .075 IsoP)...For reference Bobby Dalbec run a 27.7% K% with a .220 IsoP in AA. As I said in my previous comment, the issue isn't the swing but it's the pitch recognition/strike zone judgment, they've been poor from the get go. These are skills that are very hard (impossible?) to develop, we saw that with Chavis/middlebrooks and many others. They should seriously entertain the idea of trading him this off-season before his trade value take too much of a hit.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 7:33:26 GMT -5
I think Duran will begin to hit for a high enough average and with enough power to fit in perfectly at 2B. That is assuming he can play 2B. We already know he can't play CF and I believe that ship has sailed. He's simply not showing enough improvement in CF. Statistically he's arguably the worst OF in MLB. And that is after around three years of playing CF.
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Post by huskies15 on Aug 31, 2021 8:34:18 GMT -5
I just don't like how much he has tinkered with his swing in the short time he has been in MLB. The lowered hands allowed him to tap into his raw power with more loft in his swing.
To Radiohix's point, he isn't really playable unless he's tapping into his power if he is going to run 25-30% k-rates. It's rare he squares one up to the pull side right now.
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Post by bcsox on Aug 31, 2021 9:01:51 GMT -5
agree with Huskies here, in that every time up his hands seem to be in a different position than they were the previous at bat. He is just a young kid who is struggling, whihc is normal, but the hitting coach should grab a hold of him and tell what to concentrate on. If he is going to be all over the place with his hand placement, then that should not be occurring in worcester, not in a playoff race in the bigs.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 31, 2021 10:38:27 GMT -5
I think Duran will begin to hit for a high enough average and with enough power to fit in perfectly at 2B. That is assuming he can play 2B. We already know he can't play CF and I believe that ship has sailed. He's simply not showing enough improvement in CF. Statistically he's arguably the worst OF in MLB. And that is after around three years of playing CF. This assessment needs citations to back it up. Otherwise, it is just noise.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 31, 2021 10:53:46 GMT -5
The worst OF in MLB is overstating it, but I believe The Enlightened Red Sox Fan's opinion should be that he's not a good outfielder here at the end of the 2021 season. Scouting reports were not good in the minors + the small amount of MLB defensive stats are horrendous + the tracking data on his first step is horrendous
Opinions on how much he will improve will vary.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 31, 2021 11:12:30 GMT -5
The worst OF in MLB is overstating it, but I believe The Enlightened Red Sox Fan's opinion should be that he's not a good outfielder here at the end of the 2021 season. Scouting reports were not good in the minors + the small amount of MLB defensive stats are horrendous + the tracking data on his first step is horrendous Opinions on how much he will improve will vary. patford does have a penchant for overstatement, but I am interested in the question of whether he could return to 2B. It does seem like if he's still bad in the OF, with his speed, after three years of working at it, that maybe it's not going to happen? And I think an average offensive profile is more likely than an above-average one in the long run; but average bat + below average outfield defense is... not that great.
On the other hand, average bat + average glove at 2B is really pretty valuable. But could he be average there? If he hasn't been working at 2B for three years is it too late for him to pick it up again?
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 31, 2021 11:25:56 GMT -5
If he's a reasonably competent 2B, then moving him back there sure seems like the logical move. But he might be even worse there for all I know.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 31, 2021 11:47:46 GMT -5
I think Duran will begin to hit for a high enough average and with enough power to fit in perfectly at 2B. That is assuming he can play 2B. We already know he can't play CF and I believe that ship has sailed. He's simply not showing enough improvement in CF. Statistically he's arguably the worst OF in MLB. And that is after around three years of playing CF. This assessment needs citations to back it up. Otherwise, it is just noise. UZR/150: -20.2 (-25.6 in CF) - 2nd worst in MLB among outfielders with 200+ innings (Clint Frazier is -20.5) DRS: -5 in 214 innings (-0.0234 per inning) - 5th worst in MLB among outfielders with 200+ innings (Ketel Marte, Abraham Almonte, Matt Beaty and Phillip Evans are worse) Worst might be a slight exaggeration, but he's in the conversation for worst OF defender in MLB based on the UZR/DRS.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 31, 2021 11:48:02 GMT -5
The only hint in the scouting report is this: "At second base, showed soft hands and fluid actions, though athleticism was somewhat wasted."
Of course, if his speed is never sufficient to make up for his Billy-from-Family-Circle type routes then his athleticism is even more wasted in the outfield.
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 31, 2021 12:17:04 GMT -5
This assessment needs citations to back it up. Otherwise, it is just noise. UZR/150: -20.2 (-25.6 in CF) - 2nd worst in MLB among outfielders with 200+ innings (Clint Frazier is -20.5) DRS: -5 in 214 innings (-0.0234 per inning) - 5th worst in MLB among outfielders with 200+ innings (Ketel Marte, Abraham Almonte, Matt Beaty and Phillip Evans are worse) Worst might be a slight exaggeration, but he's in the conversation for worst OF defender in MLB based on the UZR/DRS. "The other thing to remember is that UZR/DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful." library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he is above average or something, just don't brand him as a butcher just yet purely based on SSS UZR/DRS. Statcast has him as average but that is also based on just 50 attempts. With this little data your eyes and his scouting report are closer to reality than any stat.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 12:56:12 GMT -5
The only hint in the scouting report is this: "At second base, showed soft hands and fluid actions, though athleticism was somewhat wasted."
Of course, if his speed is never sufficient to make up for his Billy-from-Family-Circle type routes then his athleticism is even more wasted in the outfield.
Exactly. And it's not like there have never been fast 2B men. Dee Gordon plays a lot of 2B. There are many others.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 13:05:50 GMT -5
The worst OF in MLB is overstating it, but I believe The Enlightened Red Sox Fan's opinion should be that he's not a good outfielder here at the end of the 2021 season. Scouting reports were not good in the minors + the small amount of MLB defensive stats are horrendous + the tracking data on his first step is horrendous Opinions on how much he will improve will vary. My opinion is the ability to read and track a ball off the bat is one of those, "you can't teach it" skills. Not to say a person could not improve or would not be lost for a short time after a position change but it just seems to me that he does not have that particular gift. Hernandez and JBJ got to all kinds of balls that you'd never think they had a chance at and it was amazing how often they seemed to glide under them. Neither of them are particularly fast. Add to that Duran has an average to below average arm. I also find it interesting that Tampa turns over players at a high rate but one guy they have stuck with it Kevin Kiermaier who does not hit and never has hit. It's simply a premiere defensive position when you have extra base hits consistently turned into FB outs.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 31, 2021 13:14:02 GMT -5
UZR/150: -20.2 (-25.6 in CF) - 2nd worst in MLB among outfielders with 200+ innings (Clint Frazier is -20.5) DRS: -5 in 214 innings (-0.0234 per inning) - 5th worst in MLB among outfielders with 200+ innings (Ketel Marte, Abraham Almonte, Matt Beaty and Phillip Evans are worse) Worst might be a slight exaggeration, but he's in the conversation for worst OF defender in MLB based on the UZR/DRS. "The other thing to remember is that UZR/DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful." library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he is above average or something, just don't brand him as a butcher just yet purely based on SSS UZR/DRS. Statcast has him as average but that is also based on just 50 attempts. With this little data your eyes and his scouting report are closer to reality than any stat. The 1 to 3 years is due to having such small samples of defensive numbers each year. To be as accurately predictive as offensive statistics (which aren't as predictive as we would like) it takes between 1 and 3 years (depending on position and opportunities) rather than only 1 year (for offensive statistics) due to decreased sample size. For Duran, an easy way to look at it is that you should only be about half as confident in his fielding being predictive of future success/failure as you are of his offensive statistics (this comment is not statistically accurate, but neither is the 1 to 3 years due to SSS - more 'rule of thumb'). But this SSS isn't saying 'we don't know if he has been good or bad', it's saying 'we don't know if his performance so far is particularly predictive of future success or failure'. Both UZR and DRS show that he has been quite bad so far. Also, please avoid intentionally misquoting the sources you cite - it only muddies the waters and is generally frowned-upon on a friendly forum. DRS doesn't come from Fangraphs (Fielding Bible) so they won't typically comment on particulars. Statcast has him as 0 OAA and +1% success rate added - which is encouraging.
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 31, 2021 13:31:33 GMT -5
library.fangraphs.com/defense/drs/The other thing to remember is that DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/The other thing to remember is that UZR isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. Is it a "intentional misquote"...technically yes...I did it to avoid posting the "identical" paragraphs twice. I think this is within reason. If not, sorry...it was in good faith.
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Post by jmei on Aug 31, 2021 14:05:51 GMT -5
Reasons I am bearish on Duran: - He's never been able to combine making a lot of contact with hitting for power at the same time. The uppercut swing that he debuted in 2020 gave him more pop but made him susceptible to high fastballs, and while his new hands apart swing may allow him to make more contact, I suspect that it saps his power. If those two things directly trade off, it significantly decreases his offensive ceiling. That's a problem that a lot of hitters have, and most of them never manage to solve it.
- The speed is nice, but he's never been a particularly prolific basestealer, and, while speed adds value on the basepaths in terms of beating out infield singles, stretching singles into doubles, scoring from first on a double, etc., to really add meaningful value, he needs to be able to steal bases at a high volume and at least a decent efficiency, and he hasn't really shown that.
- The defense has already been discussed, but, because his issue is with jumps rather than with footspeed, I don't think we can really expect it to play up in a corner. If anything, he might have more trouble with the different angles at a corner outfield position.
- He turns 25 next week, which means it's harder to project him to improve significantly on any of the above.
Whether he ends up as a 35 hit/55 power guy or a 45 hit/45 power guy (or somewhere in between), I'm not sure I see more than a fringe-average overall hitter. A fringe-average hitter plus a below-average defender, even with plus-plus speed, feels like a fourth outfielder to me. He's got a ceiling above that if he ever figures out his swing and is able to combine contact with power, but hard to bet on a hitter making significant and long-lasting swing improvements at 25.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,988
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Post by jimoh on Aug 31, 2021 14:36:46 GMT -5
The worst OF in MLB is overstating it, but I believe The Enlightened Red Sox Fan's opinion should be that he's not a good outfielder here at the end of the 2021 season. Scouting reports were not good in the minors + the small amount of MLB defensive stats are horrendous + the tracking data on his first step is horrendous Opinions on how much he will improve will vary. My opinion is the ability to read and track a ball off the bat is one of those, "you can't teach it" skills. Not to say a person could not improve or would not be lost for a short time after a position change but it just seems to me that he does not have that particular gift. Hernandez and JBJ got to all kinds of balls that you'd never think they had a chance at and it was amazing how often they seemed to glide under them. Neither of them are particularly fast. Add to that Duran has an average to below average arm. I also find it interesting that Tampa turns over players at a high rate but one guy they have stuck with it Kevin Kiermaier who does not hit and never has hit. It's simply a premiere defensive position when you have extra base hits consistently turned into FB outs. Comparing anyone to JBJ seems unwise. He has great natural ability and, strangely, has been a committed and dedicated outfielder since a very young age, maybe ninth grade, despite being right-handed. Anytime you are discussing whether an outfielder can get better and your next sentence mentions JBJ you lose me.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 14:38:49 GMT -5
One more point on Duran's defense. Isn't defense a lot more predictive than offense when a player moves from AAA to MLB ? Is there any reason at all a fielder's defense would not be exactly the same in MLB as it was in AAA? Also Fenway Park has a very deep and very difficult CF.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 14:41:34 GMT -5
My opinion is the ability to read and track a ball off the bat is one of those, "you can't teach it" skills. Not to say a person could not improve or would not be lost for a short time after a position change but it just seems to me that he does not have that particular gift. Hernandez and JBJ got to all kinds of balls that you'd never think they had a chance at and it was amazing how often they seemed to glide under them. Neither of them are particularly fast. Add to that Duran has an average to below average arm. I also find it interesting that Tampa turns over players at a high rate but one guy they have stuck with it Kevin Kiermaier who does not hit and never has hit. It's simply a premiere defensive position when you have extra base hits consistently turned into FB outs. Comparing anyone to JBJ seems unwise. He has great natural ability and, strangely, has been a committed and dedicated outfielder since a very young age, maybe ninth grade, despite being right-handed. Anytime you are discussing whether an outfielder can get better and your next sentence mentions JBJ you lose me. I also mentioned Hernandez. I'm very happy with him. And although he does not play for the Sox I mentioned Kiermaier. There are lots of outstanding CF in MLB. Duran is not close to being average. BTW. JBJ has won one GG.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 31, 2021 16:22:30 GMT -5
I think Duran's swing is just all over the place now and shouldn't be judged at the current time. I wouldn't mind him going to Arizona with a plan in the offseason.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 31, 2021 16:43:40 GMT -5
I think Duran's swing is just all over the place now and shouldn't be judged at the current time. I wouldn't mind him going to Arizona with a plan in the offseason. For a guy who seemed to play to his batting average, the switch to power hitter, regardless of how much time he spends in the weight room, seems to have unsettled Duran more than a little bit. I wonder whose idea it was to use a split grip? There is one of those every forty years or so. I seem to remember Earl Torgeson, Boston Braves 1B did that. Cobb? In any event, I expect Duran to be a near average OF at best, and as we all agree, if he does not hit at a significant level, he cannot/should not be a starting OF for the Sox. One point about base stealing. He was 13 of 15 at Worcester this year in about a half season. That equates to maybe 30 for the season. That is a useful, not mind blowing rate. But it aint nothin if he does not get on base. Finally, his race is not yet over. But it looks like an uphill slog to the finish line.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 31, 2021 16:54:02 GMT -5
I think Duran's swing is just all over the place now and shouldn't be judged at the current time. I wouldn't mind him going to Arizona with a plan in the offseason. For a guy who seemed to play to his batting average, the switch to power hitter, regardless of how much time he spends in the weight room, seems to have unsettled Duran more than a little bit. I wonder whose idea it was to use a split grip? There is one of those every forty years or so. I seem to remember Earl Torgeson, Boston Braves 1B did that. Cobb? In any event, I expect Duran to be a near average OF at best, and as we all agree, if he does not hit at a significant level, he cannot/should not be a starting OF for the Sox. One point about base stealing. He was 13 of 15 at Worcester this year in about a half season. That equates to maybe 30 for the season. That is a useful, not mind blowing rate. But it aint nothin if he does not get on base. Finally, his race is not yet over. But it looks like an uphill slog to the finish line. This sounds a lot more pessimistic on Duran than you were a month or two ago. Out of curiosity, what changed?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,149
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Post by cdj on Aug 31, 2021 18:13:07 GMT -5
Old enough to remember the victory laps when he was like 2-11 with a home run
Kid just needs time. There are some red flags but you have a lot of guys who have been around the league for awhile calling him special too. He’s not the first kid to struggle in his first taste and he won’t be the last
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