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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 2, 2021 13:44:32 GMT -5
I’d keep him up and let him keep working through some things. It takes time and he can successfully make significant adjustments
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Post by orion09 on Aug 2, 2021 14:17:52 GMT -5
I’m not sure what good sending him down would do, unless it’s just to get him regular ABs. He’s shown he can hit AAA pitching... he’s just running into MLB guys with better stuff, command, and scouting reports. I think he has to play his way through it
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Aug 2, 2021 14:24:56 GMT -5
Personally I haven't seen him play enough yet to make a decision, he's played in 14 games and only 43 plate appearances, and unlike in the minors he's not playing every day to get into a groove. I still keep him because no one else on this team offers the same weapon that he is, even as a pinch runner. He can spell Verdugo and personally if I never see JD Martinez in the field again it would be fine with me, I'd rather he concentrate on hitting and I worry trotting him out there makes him an injury risk.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 2, 2021 14:33:47 GMT -5
Mr Pedroia once upon a time got off to terrible start. And if come September he hasn't made much progress then an OF of Scwarber, Duggy and Renfroe will look pretty good.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 2, 2021 14:37:46 GMT -5
At this point I think he gets until Arroyo's back to try and turn things around. If he's not doing better by then he'll go down until September at which point he'll come back to pinch run and start up on a match-up basis. If he is then they'll do more platooning/rotation between he, Arroyo, Renfroe, Verdugo and Dalbec (who is also a candidate to go down until September once Arroyo's back), with Kiké and Schwarber moving around and guys getting off days as needed.
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Post by patford on Aug 2, 2021 15:21:39 GMT -5
Duran is 24. Dalbec is 26. It's sink or swim time. Another reason I didn't like the trade for Schwarber. The Red Sox are not winning the WS this year. Winning the WS is the only team goal. You don't play to make the playoffs or lose in the WS.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 2, 2021 15:38:20 GMT -5
Duran is 24. Dalbec is 26. It's sink or swim time. Another reason I didn't like the trade for Schwarber. The Red Sox are not winning the WS this year. Winning the WS is the only team goal. You don't play to make the playoffs or lose in the WS. All I would ask of people who see this obvious difference between playoff-caliber teams on the one hand, and teams that have a chance to win the world series on the other, is to explain the 2019 Nationals (93 wins), the 2015 Royals (95 wins), the 2014 Giants (88 wins), the 2012 Giants (94 wins), the 2011 Cardinals (90 wins), the 2010 Giants (92 wins), the 2008 Phillies (92 wins), the 2006 Cardinals (83 wins)...
For context, the Red Sox are currently on pace for 95 wins.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 2, 2021 16:02:52 GMT -5
Duran is 24. Dalbec is 26. It's sink or swim time. Another reason I didn't like the trade for Schwarber. The Red Sox are not winning the WS this year. Winning the WS is the only team goal. You don't play to make the playoffs or lose in the WS. All I would ask of people who see this obvious difference between playoff-caliber teams on the one hand, and teams that have a chance to win the world series on the other, is to explain the 2019 Nationals (93 wins), the 2015 Royals (95 wins), the 2014 Giants (88 wins), the 2012 Giants (94 wins), the 2011 Cardinals (90 wins), the 2010 Giants (92 wins), the 2008 Phillies (92 wins), the 2006 Cardinals (83 wins)... For context, the Red Sox are currently on pace for 95 wins.
I think the Sox are very unlikely to win the World Series as constituted, but then again only 1 of 10 playoff teams wins the Series. I would think the Sox' odds are less than the typical 10%, but then again, your point totally stands. If the Sox have, say an 8% chance of winning, then what the hell were the odds of the 06 Cardinals or those SF Giants teams that won thrice in 3 seasons? The Sox have never had a season where they were just a weaker team that caught lightning in a bottle and blasted through October. That's probably why we as Sox fans have trouble believing that an 89 win team could get hot and be the last team standing or given that the Sox when they have won the Series they have been the best team going in, or the favorites. Some of us remember those Red Sox teams of 1986 - 2003 that weren't the best but were eventually knocked off by the superior team. But of course the Mariners fans can tell you winning 116 games doesn't even guarantee a trip to the Series. The Sox in 04, beat a 104 or 105 win Cardinals team (too lazy to look it up). So even though the feeling is that the Sox would have to have a lot more go right than normal to win the Series and that their pitching clearly doesn't match up to the other staffs', the possibility remains that the Sox could still win the Series. The odds are more against them than some of their counterparts, but it doesn't mean that it is impossible. Upsets do happen. With the Sox in the Series it happened once. The 1946 Red Sox were superior to the Cardinals but the lack of getting the key out in the 8th inning and failure to get the clutch hit in the 9th cost them the Championship, but our generation is used to them winning when great and losing when it appears they're not good enough.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 28, 2021 7:57:00 GMT -5
It's nice to see good MiLB teams... feel like the pattern is Red Sox are good and their farm teams always not great. And there is a bit of a necessary inverse relationship of course (draft position, trades etc). I think the biggest change we will see is having prospects (Casas, Crawford, Duran) serving as MLB depth, and maybe not having as many AAAA types. Would help out the 40 man situation. Duran...no hes AAAA
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 28, 2021 8:10:05 GMT -5
It's nice to see good MiLB teams... feel like the pattern is Red Sox are good and their farm teams always not great. And there is a bit of a necessary inverse relationship of course (draft position, trades etc). I think the biggest change we will see is having prospects (Casas, Crawford, Duran) serving as MLB depth, and maybe not having as many AAAA types. Would help out the 40 man situation. Duran...no hes AAAA Hate definitive statements like this that are clearly way premature
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Post by manfred on Aug 28, 2021 10:18:06 GMT -5
Hate definitive statements like this that are clearly way premature I honestly don’t get being pessimistic about Duran. And I’m a pessimist! What did people expect? I thought he’d likely struggle in his first taste… a lot of guys do. No biggie. But there have been some great signs… good at bats, great swings etc. I don’t know that he’ll be some .300, 30 hr guy… but who expects that of anything but the top 1% of prospects? But I do expect him to be a good starter.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 28, 2021 13:04:07 GMT -5
Hate definitive statements like this that are clearly way premature I honestly don’t get being pessimistic about Duran. And I’m a pessimist! What did people expect? I thought he’d likely struggle in his first taste… a lot of guys do. No biggie. But there have been some great signs… good at bats, great swings etc. I don’t know that he’ll be some .300, 30 hr guy… but who expects that of anything but the top 1% of prospects? But I do expect him to be a good starter. I just don’t think he has the hit tool and enough power to be a regular starter in mlb. He has unbelievable speed but his fielding is average reliant on his speed. one great tool won’t make up for the rest which are average at best
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 28, 2021 21:55:00 GMT -5
I honestly don’t get being pessimistic about Duran. And I’m a pessimist! What did people expect? I thought he’d likely struggle in his first taste… a lot of guys do. No biggie. But there have been some great signs… good at bats, great swings etc. I don’t know that he’ll be some .300, 30 hr guy… but who expects that of anything but the top 1% of prospects? But I do expect him to be a good starter. I just don’t think he has the hit tool and enough power to be a regular starter in mlb. He has unbelievable speed but his fielding is average reliant on his speed. one great tool won’t make up for the rest which are average at best You say this after less then 100 major league ABs. Good thing you don’t work for the team! 😂
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 29, 2021 7:41:03 GMT -5
I just don’t think he has the hit tool and enough power to be a regular starter in mlb. He has unbelievable speed but his fielding is average reliant on his speed. one great tool won’t make up for the rest which are average at best You say this after less then 100 major league ABs. Good thing you don’t work for the team! 😂 Just an opinion. I’ve been following Duran for years. Hopefully he proves me wrong
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Post by orion09 on Aug 29, 2021 9:52:21 GMT -5
I honestly don’t get being pessimistic about Duran. And I’m a pessimist! What did people expect? I thought he’d likely struggle in his first taste… a lot of guys do. No biggie. But there have been some great signs… good at bats, great swings etc. I don’t know that he’ll be some .300, 30 hr guy… but who expects that of anything but the top 1% of prospects? But I do expect him to be a good starter. I just don’t think he has the hit tool and enough power to be a regular starter in mlb. He has unbelievable speed but his fielding is average reliant on his speed. one great tool won’t make up for the rest which are average at best I would tend to agree, based on looks thus far (rather than results) he seems to be having trouble with pitch recognition. There’s a lot of worrying swing and miss. IMO not all “early struggles” are made equal, there’s “overmatched because of scouting reports and/or holes in swing,” which requires adjustment, and there’s “overmatched because of spin recognition and/or superior stuff,” which is more hit-tool related. I don’t have him as a AAAA OF, FWIW, don’t feel quite that pessimistic. I would peg him as a 1.5 WAR 4th OF or maybe fringe starter. I don’t see 1st division starter upside so far, based on hit tool and power (or lack thereof). Some have thrown an Ellsbury comp on him, but I don’t see that kind of upside or explosiveness, even if you take 2011 out of the conversation. Would obviously love to be proven wrong.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 29, 2021 11:05:50 GMT -5
I just don’t think he has the hit tool and enough power to be a regular starter in mlb. He has unbelievable speed but his fielding is average reliant on his speed. one great tool won’t make up for the rest which are average at best I would tend to agree, based on looks thus far (rather than results) he seems to be having trouble with pitch recognition. There’s a lot of worrying swing and miss. IMO not all “early struggles” are made equal, there’s “overmatched because of scouting reports and/or holes in swing,” which requires adjustment, and there’s “overmatched because of spin recognition and/or superior stuff,” which is more hit-tool related. I don’t have him as a AAAA OF, FWIW, don’t feel quite that pessimistic. I would peg him as a 1.5 WAR 4th OF or maybe fringe starter. I don’t see 1st division starter upside so far, based on hit tool and power (or lack thereof). Some have thrown an Ellsbury comp on him, but I don’t see that kind of upside or explosiveness, even if you take 2011 out of the conversation. Would obviously love to be proven wrong. yes I agree. I just don’t see he huge upside with him others here do. Every tool he has is average besides his plus plus speed.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 29, 2021 11:10:52 GMT -5
You say this after less then 100 major league ABs. Good thing you don’t work for the team! 😂 Just an opinion. I’ve been following Duran's box scores for years. Hopefully he proves me wrong FTFY
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 29, 2021 11:13:53 GMT -5
Just an opinion. I’ve been following Duran's box scores for years. Hopefully he proves me wrong FTFY I’ve seen him play live, a lot in Lowell, where I live. I’m no expert, I don’t get paid to scout, but just observed from my own eyes. name me a tool he has that’s better than average? Besides his speed
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Post by manfred on Aug 29, 2021 11:50:51 GMT -5
I’ve seen him play live, a lot in Lowell, where I live. I’m no expert, I don’t get paid to scout, but just observed from my own eyes. name me a tool he has that’s better than average? Besides his speed His soxprospects page says plus raw power. So let’s say he can hit 25 HRs and steal 30 bases. Play average CF, hit ok otherwise. That’s pretty good, isn’t it?
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Post by orion09 on Aug 29, 2021 12:03:42 GMT -5
I’ve seen him play live, a lot in Lowell, where I live. I’m no expert, I don’t get paid to scout, but just observed from my own eyes. name me a tool he has that’s better than average? Besides his speed His soxprospects page says plus raw power. So let’s say he can hit 25 HRs and steal 30 bases. Play average CF, hit ok otherwise. That’s pretty good, isn’t it? YMMV, but I haven’t seen plus raw power so far... his only two HR were opposite field fly balls by the foul pole that barely went over the fence. Also haven’t seen him drive the ball in the air with any regularity. Many of his base hits have been bloop singles. Haven’t watched every inning of every game, but I don’t see a 25 HR hitter as currently constructed. Should add that I’m high on the speed and I love players in the Ellsbury mold, super fun to watch, so I hope he succeeds
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Post by orion09 on Aug 29, 2021 12:26:26 GMT -5
Just looking at some Savant numbers to see if the numbers back up the eye test, and his avg exit velocity and hard hit % are both above average. xWOBA and xSLG are very poor, but xWOBA on contact is just slightly below average. Also, launch angle is well below average.
So maybe there’s like 55 raw power there, but he’s having trouble getting to it because he’s having trouble making contact. When he does make contact, he’s hitting the ball fairly hard, but he’s not driving the ball in the air as often as he needs to.
Maybe he’s just out of whack, either because he’s a little overmatched by MLB pitching or because his mechanics got messed up. I do seem to remember seeing some mammoth home runs in the MiLB gameday threads.
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 29, 2021 12:44:10 GMT -5
Agree with almost everything!
He has good power but I don't think "mammoth home runs" will be his future. Polar Park looks like a launchpad for lefties. Home SLG 0.697 vs. Away SLG 0.396
Give him time, even Wander Franco struggled early on and Duran is not the No1 prospect in baseball...
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 29, 2021 13:36:23 GMT -5
Agree with almost everything! He has good power but I don't think "mammoth home runs" will be his future. Polar Park looks like a launchpad for lefties. Home SLG 0.697 vs. Away SLG 0.396 Give him time, even Wander Franco struggled early on and Duran is not the No1 prospect in baseball... Duran has certainly disappointed as a hitter so far. And this new trick of split hands on the bat has done him no favors. If he cannot hit, he has no future as anything other than as a spare wheel. His value as a fielder is, I believe, somewhat understated. You do not see misreads, and that speed does play well. If he gets better, he could be above average. I love his potential but he does not get there if he does not hit.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Aug 29, 2021 13:40:04 GMT -5
Agree with almost everything! He has good power but I don't think "mammoth home runs" will be his future. Polar Park looks like a launchpad for lefties. Home SLG 0.697 vs. Away SLG 0.396 Give him time, even Wander Franco struggled early on and Duran is not the No1 prospect in baseball...See this is the part that I don't agree with when comparing Duran's struggle to the likes of Kelenic or Franco, these guys were making tons of contact vs AAA pitchers (84.6% for Kelenic in Tacoma, 84.9% for Franco in Durham) so yeah, you give them time and they'll make the necessary adjustments but Duran's is different type of hitter, he's an already a below average contact hitter vs AAA pitchers (67.0% contact on swings) and even before his swing changes he wasn't that much of contact hitter too which leads to believe that he lacked pitch recognition from the get go. Honestly I'm at the point where I hope he doesn't hurt his trade value, because I would love flipping him to the Marlins for one of their pitching prospects before it's too late.
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Post by manfred on Aug 29, 2021 14:09:00 GMT -5
Man, I never want to be called negative again. I believe in Duran.
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