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Post by RedSoxStats on May 14, 2019 0:29:43 GMT -5
Surely they'll have to promote him soon. He is putting up video game type of numbers. What is accomplished keeping him in Salem? He has proved imo that he is above this level at this point. Let's see him against more skilled competition... Seeing pitchers for the 2nd and 3rd time, learning to steal bases with efficiency, and learning to play the outfield with more than just speed. It's not a secret that he can slap the ball around and get on 1st base. Double-A is basically the new Triple-A, you have to almost be MLB ready at that point, Crockett made it clear the other day there is stuff that needs work.
There is no public ball tracking in the minors, so that is some person in the press box clicking a spot on the map. You'll see most batted balls near a position on those maps.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 14, 2019 1:22:51 GMT -5
Surely they'll have to promote him soon. He is putting up video game type of numbers. What is accomplished keeping him in Salem? He has proved imo that he is above this level at this point. Let's see him against more skilled competition... Seeing pitchers for the 2nd and 3rd time, learning to steal bases with efficiency, and learning to play the outfield with more than just speed. It's not a secret that he can slap the ball around and get on 1st base. Double-A is basically the new Triple-A, you have to almost be MLB ready at that point, Crockett made it clear the other day there is stuff that needs work. There is no public ball tracking in the minors, so that is some person in the press box clicking a spot on the map. You'll see most batted balls near a position on those maps.
Question, since Baseball Savant is part of MLB, not an independent site (It's what used to be MLBfarm, run by the same person, Daren Willman), is it possible that they have access to some tracking data ?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 14, 2019 3:42:36 GMT -5
There are only 5 players in the CAR with OPS over .888.
Seth Beer 1.034 Duran 1.011 David Masters .952 Mason McCoy .925 Oscar Gonzalez .903
That's a lot of separation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 14, 2019 7:42:28 GMT -5
Peter Gammons Verified account @pgammo
Jarren Duran's 99 pro games:.374/.418/.524 2019 v. LHPs:.469/.519/.571
Interesting. I hadn't noticed the splits. It's only 48 ABs so I looked at last year: 2018 vs RHP 0.336/0.377/0.516/0.892 vs LHP 0.433/0.460/0.517/0.977
Indeed, very curious.
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Post by rismith on May 14, 2019 9:04:12 GMT -5
Clearly he can hit and is displaying a high contact ability. Curious if there have been any insights on his ability to play CF? Range? Arm? etc. Is he a CF? LF? Just curious.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 14, 2019 9:23:44 GMT -5
Clearly he can hit and is displaying a high contact ability. Curious if there have been any insights on his ability to play CF? Range? Arm? etc. Is he a CF? LF? Just curious. He obviously has the tools but very little experience. It's pretty much going to take the opinion of someone that sees him play every day to determine that. You can't get an idea of range on MiLB.TV because they typically only show one angle at a time and don't go back and show other angles, therefore, you never see the break he gets and that's a major component of range.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 14, 2019 9:55:46 GMT -5
Peter Gammons Verified account @pgammo Jarren Duran's 99 pro games:.374/.418/.524 2019 v. LHPs:.469/.519/.571 Interesting. I hadn't noticed the splits. It's only 48 ABs so I looked at last year: 2018 vs RHP 0.336/0.377/0.516/0.892 vs LHP 0.433/0.460/0.517/0.977 Indeed, very curious. He goes to LF more often than some RH pull hitters so I’m not surprised that he doesn’t conform to typical splits. I’d like to see him K closer to 15% than 20% with his speed and probable higher than average BABIP.
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Post by James Dunne on May 14, 2019 10:02:38 GMT -5
A pox on the house of those who said he couldn't hit with a wood bat.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 14, 2019 10:06:33 GMT -5
A pox on the house of those who said he couldn't hit with a wood bat. I remember hoping that they'd grab a Beer in the draft. I think there was also a defense question if I remember correctly?
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 14, 2019 11:05:58 GMT -5
Question, since Baseball Savant is part of MLB, not an independent site (It's what used to be MLBfarm, run by the same person, Daren Willman), is it possible that they have access to some tracking data ?
I know that each team is responsible for their own data in their own affiliates parks and there is a gentleman's agreement among most teams to share. From what I know this hasn't been MLB-based data, and it's certainly not public.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 14, 2019 11:40:19 GMT -5
Question, since Baseball Savant is part of MLB, not an independent site (It's what used to be MLBfarm, run by the same person, Daren Willman), is it possible that they have access to some tracking data ? I know that each team is responsible for their own data in their own affiliates parks and there is a gentleman's agreement among most teams to share. From what I know this hasn't been MLB-based data, and it's certainly not public.
I noticed that the little red dots have disappeared from the gameday thingamabob. So then the question becomes, where does he get his data. MLBfarms used to be the only ones that did minor league heat maps but now when you go to their site and click on anything, it just links to baseball savant.
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Post by telson13 on May 14, 2019 12:07:37 GMT -5
Peter Gammons Verified account @pgammo Jarren Duran's 99 pro games:.374/.418/.524 2019 v. LHPs:.469/.519/.571 Interesting. I hadn't noticed the splits. It's only 48 ABs so I looked at last year: 2018 vs RHP 0.336/0.377/0.516/0.892 vs LHP 0.433/0.460/0.517/0.977 Indeed, very curious. Boggs used to hit LH well, went the other way a lot. Edit: take a look at the difference in IsoP
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 14, 2019 12:10:44 GMT -5
Peter Gammons Verified account @pgammo Jarren Duran's 99 pro games:.374/.418/.524 2019 v. LHPs:.469/.519/.571 Interesting. I hadn't noticed the splits. It's only 48 ABs so I looked at last year: 2018 vs RHP 0.336/0.377/0.516/0.892 vs LHP 0.433/0.460/0.517/0.977 Indeed, very curious. Boggs used to hit LH well, went the other way a lot. Edit: take a look at the difference in IsoP Yes I also noticed the IsoP difference but it's more than made up for in the BA difference. It was 60 ABs last year so he's hitting almost .450 against lefties for his career.
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Post by telson13 on May 14, 2019 12:16:09 GMT -5
Boggs used to hit LH well, went the other way a lot. Edit: take a look at the difference in IsoP Yes I also noticed the IsoP difference but it's more than made up for in the BA difference. It was 60 ABs last year so he's hitting almost .450 against lefties for his career. That’s what I mean: he seems to do the Boggs: take LH oppo to LF, spray LD vs RH including pulling line-huggers and going deep gaps. So the .450 or so vs LH is pretty empty except for a few LD to the corner, vs RH the average isn’t so high but he does more damage. Seems like Fenway is gonna be his kinda place to play...
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Post by telson13 on May 14, 2019 12:21:52 GMT -5
Either way, dude’s hitting .412 with an acceptable .130 IsoP and a more-stupid-by-the-day BABIP of .530. If yesterday is the start of a “hot” streak (it’s obviously relative when you hit .400) I legitimately may actually see him reach .600 BABIP for an AB.
Just when I think he’s gonna cool off...nope.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 14, 2019 12:29:34 GMT -5
Yes I also noticed the IsoP difference but it's more than made up for in the BA difference. It was 60 ABs last year so he's hitting almost .450 against lefties for his career. That’s what I mean: he seems to do the Boggs: take LH oppo to LF, spray LD vs RH including pulling line-huggers and going deep gaps. So the .450 or so vs LH is pretty empty except for a few LD to the corner, vs RH the average isn’t so high but he does more damage. Seems like Fenway is gonna be his kinda place to play... That's assumptive because the spray charts don't show splits. The higher OPS says more damage VS left as opposed to the right side. He doesn't have a lot of RBI, he has a lot of runs scored.
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Post by jimed14 on May 14, 2019 12:51:55 GMT -5
To reach the majors and be successful, the main thing he's going to have to do is adapt. He can't do the same thing every time or he'll be killed with shifts. If all he does with lefties is go to LF, there will be two OFers over there.
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Post by telson13 on May 14, 2019 13:11:17 GMT -5
That’s what I mean: he seems to do the Boggs: take LH oppo to LF, spray LD vs RH including pulling line-huggers and going deep gaps. So the .450 or so vs LH is pretty empty except for a few LD to the corner, vs RH the average isn’t so high but he does more damage. Seems like Fenway is gonna be his kinda place to play... That's assumptive because the spray charts don't show splits. The higher OPS says more damage VS left as opposed to the right side. He doesn't have a lot of RBI, he has a lot of runs scored. His IsoP has ranged from .040-.100 higher vs RHP, is my point. Looking at last year's BA/SLG splits, his SLG is the same but his BA is 100 points lower...meaning IsoP is .100 higher. I should’ve clarified: more damage *to the ball*. Iow, a larger proportion of hits going for XB. It definitely *is* an assumption, I’m just taking a (semi-educated?) guess at what might be happening given his batting approach and results. It’s also mildly curious to see the IsoP difference shrink, but that may just be a result of fewer overall. In any case, it’s a very interesting phenomenon, along with the silly BABIP (wonder what it is vs LHP? .650?). Duran is an unusual prospect to say the least.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 14, 2019 13:47:44 GMT -5
To me, reaching base 20+% more often against a same sided pitcher is another silly number. I can't recall ever seeing that.
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 14, 2019 13:59:42 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on May 14, 2019 14:03:33 GMT -5
Am I reading that chart correctly? Does it show him being 15 for 16 on balls in play to the outfield against left-handed pitching?
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 14, 2019 14:06:43 GMT -5
Yea, 5 of them were groundballs that were fielded in the OF though.
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Post by jimed14 on May 14, 2019 14:08:55 GMT -5
Either this guy is the luckiest guy on earth or he is disproving the theory that you cannot hit the ball exactly where you want to.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 14, 2019 14:36:58 GMT -5
I couldn't get splits the other day, I must have done something wrong. Anyways, if anything, he's pulling the ball more against lefties, not the other way around.
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Post by stevedillard on May 14, 2019 14:55:07 GMT -5
The last non-prospect guy to do this well in the system was Kevin Youkilis.
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