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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2018 15:48:02 GMT -5
The only thing that makes sense is if they're considering signing Jackson to a minor league deal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 22, 2018 15:48:06 GMT -5
They'd be building up their bench. It would mean that JDM DHes a lot more, that Pearce plays 1b against lefties platooning with Moreland and that Jackson would play CF against lefties in a platoon with JBJ. I can see the logic of it. I just have trouble seeing how they shoehorn him onto the roster, but in the post-season you normally have 5 bench guys and go with 11 pitchers so if that's the case a bench of Leon, Swihart, Phillips (if Holt is the 2B), Nunez, and Jackson could work. Except he sucks and just got released by the Rangers. I can't see how he'd help at all. He's been lousy this year but was really good for Cleveland the prior year. He would be of no use for Texas, and perhaps of no use for the Red Sox. All I'm saying is I can see some logic to it if the Sox are trying to limit Moreland's time at 1b against lefties and trying to keep JDM out of the outfield to keep him healthier.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 22, 2018 15:49:47 GMT -5
They'd be building up their bench. It would mean that JDM DHes a lot more, that Pearce plays 1b against lefties platooning with Moreland and that Jackson would play CF against lefties in a platoon with JBJ. I can see the logic of it. I just have trouble seeing how they shoehorn him onto the roster, but in the post-season you normally have 5 bench guys and go with 11 pitchers so if that's the case a bench of Leon, Swihart, Phillips (if Holt is the 2B), Nunez, and Jackson could work. Psst... you forgot Pearce. Psst....you're right. That shoots my argument to pieces. Carry on.
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Post by swingingbunt on Jul 22, 2018 15:50:51 GMT -5
You must have missed the first 8 pages. Either that, or I've got some memory issues from slamming my head on my desk repeatedly.
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Post by jmei on Jul 22, 2018 16:47:44 GMT -5
Let’s move on from the Porcello stuff. I’d like to remind folks about the forum ground rules, in particular the parts about not arguing for the sake of arguing and steering clear of repetition. Thanks.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2018 16:48:10 GMT -5
As some have noted Moustakis having some significant BABIP bad luck this year. ISO is still strong.
As for going over, I'm hoping they stay under so they can spend big in the off season - would love to add Machado to this team. They will also need a starter - but if they really believe they are one player and a reliever away from the World Series then they have to go for it.
Which reminds me, when is Wright back? There were articles after his NYC examination that said he might have even been activated before the AS break. Obviously that didn't happen but they need a starter, and sticking Wright between Sale and Price may give Price the added benefit of the Knuckleballer Next Day After the Knuckleballer Effect.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 16:51:55 GMT -5
As some have noted Moustakis having some significant BABIP bad luck this year. ISO is still strong. As for going over, I'm hoping they stay under so they can spend big in the off season - would love to add Machado to this team. They will also need a starter - but if they really believe they are one player and a reliever away from the World Series then they have to go for it. Which reminds me, when is Wright back? There were articles after his NYC examination that said he might have even been activated before the AS break. Obviously that didn't happen but they need a starter, and sticking Wright between Sale and Price may give Price the added benefit of the Knuckleballer Next Day After the Knuckleballer Effect. Wright's not close. He was shut down all over again over the allstar break.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jul 22, 2018 17:08:05 GMT -5
Sam Kennedy has pretty much said that for the right player the Sox are willing to go over. Dombrowski has said as much too. I didn't think they would. Didn't think they wanted to. I think their goal was to try not to, but given where the Sox are right now, they should if given the right opportunity. I would only go over for a big upgrade such as Dozier, Scooter Gennett or Britton. Your willing to have your first draft pick moved back 10 spots for 2 months of Dozier or Britton? I'm not so sure. If I am going to go over, I want a player who can help for the next few years, not just the next two months.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2018 17:08:16 GMT -5
Nobody called him an ace. You claimed his ceiling was mid-rotation, and that he often failed to reach it. You’re defending an indefensible position. That’s why every single poster on your comment has given you blowback. Champs just called him a Ace. You called him a number one. I listed the reasons why I didn't think he was. I get the blowback, but it wasn't indefensible that I also said he failed to reach mid rotation starter status a lot. The guy has a ERA over 4 and a half in 6 out of his 9 full years as a big leaguer (not including this one because it isn't completed yet). That was the only point I was making. Seriously, go back and *actually read* this whole string, beginning with your post. I said, in response, that he had a season where he was a 1, ergo his **ceiling** is not a number 3. That’s pretty basic and pretty much everyone here acknowledges that but you. Now you’re arguing that his 4.8 bWAR/5.1 fWAR season is “mid-rotation” because of a 3.89 xFIP. Is it that hard to say “sheesh, yeah, I exaggerated there...?” You’re dug in like a tick on this one. Start with your original statement. There’s your blowback. You’re filtering everything people are saying as it comes in and completely distorting it into these wild straw men that you can rail against. You’re arguing against yourself at this point. It’s just beyond the pale. LOOK UP the definition of CEILING. Someone even put it in here but maybe you need to google it yourself. Just stop and take a breath, man. I love what you add to this site. Just take it easy.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 22, 2018 17:13:39 GMT -5
I would only go over for a big upgrade such as Dozier, Scooter Gennett or Britton. Your willing to have your first draft pick moved back 10 spots for 2 months of Dozier or Britton? I'm not so sure. If I am going to go over, I want a player who can help for the next few years, not just the next two months. I'd prefer not to see the Sox have to move back 10 spaces but if it's for player(s) that help the Sox over the next three months (it's really August, September, and hopefully all of October), then yeah you have to do it. I mean, instead of picking say 30th, you pick 40th. I don't know that that's a huge difference maker in available talent at that point. It's already an inexact science but once you're that far into the draft (beyond the first 10 or 15 or so) it really becomes a big crapshoot of who's more talented or turns out better than whom. And as far as the financial penalty goes, they make that up with increased October revenue. I'm for them exceeding 237 million. I didn't think they would but I applaud their willingness now do so, even though they really would have preferred not to.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 22, 2018 17:15:46 GMT -5
I would only go over for a big upgrade such as Dozier, Scooter Gennett or Britton. Your willing to have your first draft pick moved back 10 spots for 2 months of Dozier or Britton? I'm not so sure. If I am going to go over, I want a player who can help for the next few years, not just the next two months. I think worrying about the tax this year based on their situation is foolish. Does that mean, I’d ad some joe blow and ignore it? No, but Britton and Dozier are definitely worth going over. 10 spots when you’re already at the back of the 1st round isn’t a big deal. Let’s say they could get these guys for a reasonable prospect cost because they are taking the money back, you wouldn’t want that?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 22, 2018 17:17:49 GMT -5
I would only go over for a big upgrade such as Dozier, Scooter Gennett or Britton. Your willing to have your first draft pick moved back 10 spots for 2 months of Dozier or Britton? I'm not so sure. If I am going to go over, I want a player who can help for the next few years, not just the next two months. I think that's a relatively easy decision to make. You do it. This team is good enough to get to the world series this year.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 22, 2018 17:41:55 GMT -5
I'm also for them going over the limit if they have to. I think that the difference between say, the 28th pick and the 38th pick is less than the difference between the 2nd pick and the 12th pick. In addition, I feel like they can leverage cash in order to lower the prospect price (something we all care about on here). I would only be against going over the limit if they dip their toes in the pool and just barely go over to solve one issue, but I'm all for it if they are aggressive and try to get multiple pieces. I really can't fault the ownership for putting their money where their mouth is.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2018 18:10:09 GMT -5
I have no idea how they can even keep under as it is, given the added salaries for roster expansion. I'd really hate for them to not call up many players because they're trying to stay under.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 22, 2018 19:05:16 GMT -5
As some have noted Moustakis having some significant BABIP bad luck this year. ISO is still strong. As for going over, I'm hoping they stay under so they can spend big in the off season - would love to add Machado to this team. They will also need a starter - but if they really believe they are one player and a reliever away from the World Series then they have to go for it. Which reminds me, when is Wright back? There were articles after his NYC examination that said he might have even been activated before the AS break. Obviously that didn't happen but they need a starter, and sticking Wright between Sale and Price may give Price the added benefit of the Knuckleballer Next Day After the Knuckleballer Effect. What does staying under have to do with spending big next year?
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Post by telson13 on Jul 22, 2018 20:22:59 GMT -5
Your willing to have your first draft pick moved back 10 spots for 2 months of Dozier or Britton? I'm not so sure. If I am going to go over, I want a player who can help for the next few years, not just the next two months. I'd prefer not to see the Sox have to move back 10 spaces but if it's for player(s) that help the Sox over the next three months (it's really August, September, and hopefully all of October), then yeah you have to do it. I mean, instead of picking say 30th, you pick 40th. I don't know that that's a huge difference maker in available talent at that point. It's already an inexact science but once you're that far into the draft (beyond the first 10 or 15 or so) it really becomes a big crapshoot of who's more talented or turns out better than whom. And as far as the financial penalty goes, they make that up with increased October revenue. I'm for them exceeding 237 million. I didn't think they would but I applaud their willingness now do so, even though they really would have preferred not to. Most of the analysis I’ve read says after 15-25 depending on the draft, the talent level drops fairly rapidly, at least in terms of liklihood of being an everyday, let alone impact, player. I don’t care much about dropping 10 spots tbh. Different story if it were 10 to 20 or 15 to 25, but after 25 it really makes no real difference. I say go for history. 117 regular season wins and a WS title.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2018 20:42:28 GMT -5
As some have noted Moustakis having some significant BABIP bad luck this year. ISO is still strong. As for going over, I'm hoping they stay under so they can spend big in the off season - would love to add Machado to this team. They will also need a starter - but if they really believe they are one player and a reliever away from the World Series then they have to go for it. Which reminds me, when is Wright back? There were articles after his NYC examination that said he might have even been activated before the AS break. Obviously that didn't happen but they need a starter, and sticking Wright between Sale and Price may give Price the added benefit of the Knuckleballer Next Day After the Knuckleballer Effect. What does staying under have to do with spending big next year? I believe the hit becomes even greater if they remain over next year. Whereas if they can re-set, then the penalty is less. Also, next year begins the front end of a two year cycle where quite a few players become free agents. So, immediately in the 2018 off-season, Pomeranz, Hanley and Kimbrel all become free agents and come off the books - about $41M. They will need to sign either Kimbrel or a another closer, and a starter or two, and some other pieces. Adding Machado to all that (or Harper for CF with a trade of JBJ) puts them way over, unless they do get Machado then trade Xander for someone in a position of need who is controllable for a couple or three years. There is big potential for turnover after 2019 - including JD - but do they extend Sale/Mookie/Xander in the next 12 months, as well? Lotta moving pieces. Also, very much a win-now roster this year/next year, as we’ve discussed.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 22, 2018 20:59:59 GMT -5
What does staying under have to do with spending big next year? I believe the hit becomes even greater if they remain over next year. Whereas if they can re-set, then the penalty is less. Also, next year begins the front end of a two year cycle where quite a few players become free agents. So, immediately in the 2018 off-season, Pomeranz, Hanley and Kimbrel all become free agents and come off the books - about $41M. They will need to sign either Kimbrel or a another closer, and a starter or two, and some other pieces. Adding Machado to all that (or Harper for CF with a trade of JBJ) puts them way over, unless they do get Machado then trade Xander for someone in a position of need who is controllable for a couple or three years. There is big potential for turnover after 2019 - including JD - but do they extend Sale/Mookie/Xander in the next 12 months, as well? Lotta moving pieces. Also, very much a win-now roster this year/next year, as we’ve discussed. I doubt the Red Sox are major players for Machado. They have too many of their own guys to take care of. I don't see how they can try to give Mookie a huge deal and pay Chris Sale his money if they tie up all that money in Machado. It would be cheaper (even with Boras) to re-sign Bogaerts if it comes down to it than give Machado his $300 plus million.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 22, 2018 21:03:08 GMT -5
FWIW, I read on MLBTraderumors.com that according to Jim Bowden's source the Astros are all in on Britton.
Honestly, that's where I'd expect him to go. They really need a closer with Giles not working out as the closer. Houston has more young talent they can give Baltimore as well, so I'd honestly be surprised if he went anywhere but Houston.
The good news is that Dombrowski can have plenty of face-to-face time with Duquette over the next few days. So we'll see. I'm just not too optimistic about the Sox coming away with Britton.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 22, 2018 21:34:47 GMT -5
And that's ok. There are other ways we can improve our roster without getting Britton, or even a relief pitcher. While I like the idea of blowing past the financial limit, I don't think we have the prospects to get a RP like Britton, a 2B like Merrifield/Dozier, and a mid/back starter like Fiers. (ie someone to eat innings and win games with our offense while Wright and Rodriguez recover so we don't have to start Johnson/Velasquez every 5 games)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 22, 2018 21:36:01 GMT -5
What does staying under have to do with spending big next year? I believe the hit becomes even greater if they remain over next year. Whereas if they can re-set, then the penalty is less. Also, next year begins the front end of a two year cycle where quite a few players become free agents. So, immediately in the 2018 off-season, Pomeranz, Hanley and Kimbrel all become free agents and come off the books - about $41M. They will need to sign either Kimbrel or a another closer, and a starter or two, and some other pieces. Adding Machado to all that (or Harper for CF with a trade of JBJ) puts them way over, unless they do get Machado then trade Xander for someone in a position of need who is controllable for a couple or three years. There is big potential for turnover after 2019 - including JD - but do they extend Sale/Mookie/Xander in the next 12 months, as well? Lotta moving pieces. Also, very much a win-now roster this year/next year, as we’ve discussed. The tax increases every year, if you paid it the year before. Hence why teams reset it once it reaches the maximum. That number is 197, not the 237 line we are talking about. The only thing going over 237 this year does is cost you 10 spots in the draft and a higher tax amount on the amount you go over the 237 million this year. Which is why a lot of us want them to blow by it. Better that than giving up waay more talent to get teams to eat money.
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 22, 2018 22:28:31 GMT -5
And that's ok. There are other ways we can improve our roster without getting Britton, or even a relief pitcher. While I like the idea of blowing past the financial limit, I don't think we have the prospects to get a RP like Britton, a 2B like Merrifield/Dozier, and a mid/back starter like Fiers. (ie someone to eat innings and win games with our offense while Wright and Rodriguez recover so we don't have to start Johnson/Velasquez every 5 games) We could go without Britton but disagree with the idea we don't need another relief pitcher.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2018 22:32:51 GMT -5
If there's anything I can guarantee this trade deadline, it's that Hembree and a marginal prospect is NOT getting Britton. I don't get why people think Britton isn't getting much this deadline in terms of prospect value. He's the best rental reliever out there and there will be at least 5-7 teams interested in getting him. It wouldn't surprise me if Britton gets a top 10 prospect in a good farm system, never mind a top 5 prospect in the Sox system. People seem to forget that competition drives the price up on even a rental reliever. This is what I was warning everyone about when it came to the Zach Britton sweepstakes. Funny. I laughed out loud and then said, "that's hysterically funny."
Heyman may have well tattooed "I'm a shill for my GM sources" on his forehead. The only reason he wouldn't is that it's already there.
However, this is true: right now it seems very likely that E-Rod will be back in the rotation for the post-season, which means your fourth starter (not necessarily your game 4 starter) is a choice between Steven Wright, Drew Pomeranz, and David Price.
If Pomeranz looks good on Tuesday, we'll be fairly confident that either Price of Pomeranz will be in the post-season bullpen. If Wright can also come back, both will be. Both should be capable of pitching the 7th. Thornburg's complete turnaround today combined with Brasier's emergence makes Britton more of a luxury then a need, too.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2018 22:54:40 GMT -5
This is a patently ridiculous statement. The man won a Cy Young award. He therefore has a **ceiling of #1 starter**. You’ve got to get over making these grossly negatively exaggerated statements. They kill your arguments completely and impact your credibility. Rick Porcello has averaged 3 WAR per season over his career. That’s a low-end 2. He’s usually a 3, sometimes a 2, rarely a 1, and rarely a 4. I’m on board with trading him if they have a feasible replacement who’s not a major step down. But at least be honest in your evaluation and go from there with your argument. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=PHe has a career ERA over 4 since joining Boston Telson. Outside of one career year, he has been a back to mid rotation type. You seem to have no idea what actually constitutes a 4th / back of the rotation starter. The line between 3rd and 4th starter is the line between being above and below major league average. (News flash: half the MLB starting pitchers are below average.) Do you really think Rick Porcello is a below average MLB starter, when you watch him pitch? Do you really say to yourself, the average guy pitching against us is better than this? (Actually, maybe you do, if you're just remembering his bad starts and forgetting the good ones.)
Nor do you seem to have any sense of what the numbers mean. You think his 4.13 ERA this year is a sign of mediocrity, right? According to b-Ref, an average MLB starter, pitching in front of the Red Sox defense and in Fenway half the time, against the opponents Porcello had faced, would have a 5.18 ERA.
In fact, the whole discussion of acquiring a starter is faintly comical. Folks, this should not be too hard to understand: the reason we went first 17-2 and have now gone 19-4 while essentially filling a rotation spot with Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez is that both of those guys have pitched better as starters than virtually everyone who has been suggested as a rotation patch. In fact, they've both pitched better than David Price. Our amazing starting pitching depth is arguably the single biggest reason we're 5 games up on the Yankees.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 22, 2018 23:00:56 GMT -5
This is what I was warning everyone about when it came to the Zach Britton sweepstakes. Funny. I laughed out loud and then said, "that's hysterically funny." Heyman may have well tattooed "I'm a shill for my GM sources" on his forehead. The only reason he wouldn't is that it's already there. However, this is true: right now it seems very likely that E-Rod will be back in the rotation for the post-season, which means your fourth starter (not necessarily your game 4 starter) is a choice between Steven Wright, Drew Pomeranz, and David Price.
If Pomeranz looks good on Tuesday, we'll be fairly confident that either Price of Pomeranz will be in the post-season bullpen. If Wright can also come back, both will be. Both should be capable of pitching the 7th. Thornburg's complete turnaround today combined with Brasier's emergence makes Britton more of a luxury then a need, too. So you have these scenarios happening? We don't know when E-Rod is coming back, if he will come back without struggling or if when he comes back he'll be able to ramp up as a starter. We don't know if Wright is coming back. Right now he's having more issues with his knee and you're talking about him like he's an option for the 7th inning. I'd be surprised if he comes back this year honestly. Brasier has looked really good in a small sample size, but do we really know if he's going to pitch as well when he's facing tougher teams in high leverage situations? Thornburg pitched great today. Maybe that mechanical adjusment takes and he's back to being Milwaukee Thornburg. And if Pomeranz pitches good on Tuesday, then he's all set for the rest of the year? Gee, based off of last year I'd have thought he'd be set for this year without any worries, yet here we are in late July and he's had one good outing this year - in Pawtucket after a bunch of crappy ones - and you're ready to proclaim him all well and good if he pitches well Tuesday? I hope so, because I have tickets to his next start and would hate to see him pitch like crap for a game I paid to go see. Really how much certainty do you really have with these pitchers when it's 7/31 and you have to decide to make a move? And you still don't have a real sample size that indicates what you should really expect? I know you love dealing with tiny sample sizes and jump to conclusions that correspond with what your heart desires but I don't see how you can really conclude anything regarding these pitchers come 7/31? By the end of August or at some point in September you might know if Brasier is a stud or if Pomeranz looks like he's back to 2017 form, or if Thornburg is finally completely back or if E-Rod and Wright are going to be able to be starting pitching choices so that the David Price to the pen idea can be revived. At that point you'd have enough of a sample size (other than Wright or E-Rod in which you'd actually know their health status) to make a bullpen judgment, but if these things come to pass and Pomeranz isn't what you hoped he'd be, Thornburg is still up and down, and Brasier is more of a Hembree/Workman/Kelly type pitcher, then it's too late because you already passed the 7/31 deadline when most of the best relievers or 5th starters are gone. So no, I don't think a reliever or even a backend starter is a luxury, and I think if given the opportunity and Dozier is available for a 2b upgrade, the Sox should strike. Maybe if the Sox were playing 92 win teams in the playoffs I wouldn't think the need might be as urgent, but the Sox will be playing 105 win teams. They need to close up any hole they find and not take risks hoping that somebody clicks in the pen. So that means going hard after Soria or Britton - and if they can't get somebody that's better than what they have - then I'll agree with you, but right now they still have a shot.
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