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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 22, 2018 23:01:26 GMT -5
And that's ok. There are other ways we can improve our roster without getting Britton, or even a relief pitcher. While I like the idea of blowing past the financial limit, I don't think we have the prospects to get a RP like Britton, a 2B like Merrifield/Dozier, and a mid/back starter like Fiers. (ie someone to eat innings and win games with our offense while Wright and Rodriguez recover so we don't have to start Johnson/Velasquez every 5 games) We could go without Britton but disagree with the idea we don't need another relief pitcher. What I meant was that if Thornburg/Brasier are so good that we have to keep them up here forcing us to trade Hembree/Workman in order to get a better reliever, then we probably don't really need to trade for a reliever at all. That's a big if.
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Post by sparkygian on Jul 23, 2018 2:53:25 GMT -5
The excitement of adding a new player to the team at the trade deadline, without knowing who it's gonna be until one is officially announced, is kind of like the anticipation buildup at Xmas time, wondering what new gift I was gonna get, and whether I would be totally satisfied, or disappointed. However, while DD has done his job of acquiring the pieces necessary to make this year's playoff team (I'm obviously assuming that they'll make the playoffs this year) more complete and balanced, compared to the last two year's playoff teams. However the cost has been very steep to do so. Between all the prospects it's taken to get a more balanced team, and the high salaries of trying to keep a star-studded team together long enough to win a World Series, reality is, from all the opinions I've read on this site, that the consensus best odds of winning it all is this year or next year. The farm system has been stripped down to the point that it's now one of the worst in the majors. Which means that DD can't really compete with the other potential playoff teams in bidding on significant trade targets, unless he decides to really gut the farm system even more, to go for it all now. And if he gives up more prospects at this deadline, but it doesn't result in a championship trophy, then most likely next year's trade deadline will be even bleaker than this year's, after bleeding out prospects for the last three years to get this team over the 'hump'.
While it's exciting to think of adding new pieces to this team, continuing to give up prospects for marginal, depth pieces I'm hearing about, like Moustakas, or Fiers, etc., just seems to be too risky, and expensive, in regards to leveraging the future of this team, and as far as confining the team's future due to being 'boxed-in' because of being so far over the salary cap.
I hope DD decides to pass on adding any new pieces for now, and instead does what Houston did last year, and make a deal in August if it becomes pretty apparent that a move is necessary, like Houston did last year. I argue that trading for a significant piece to add to this team, is the way to go IF a trade is done. Something along the lines of like what Houston did last year, in adding Verlander, or the 2016 Cubs adding Chapman, is gonna give the Sox the best chances of getting over the hump in the playoffs this year, and going all the way, rather than continuing to leverage away the team's future, by dealing away more prospects for marginal 'depth' talent, like Fiers or Moustakas - players that may hardly play at all in the playoffs on this team. I'd rather see DD go for elite talent if he deems it absolutely necessary to make a move. Players like Britton, or Iglesias I could see playing significant roles in the playoffs.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 23, 2018 3:53:52 GMT -5
What are peoples thoughts on Asdrubal Cabrerra? He's about equal with Nunez defensively, but he's also likely the best bat you can get for 2B. Given he's on the Mets and everyone seems to be in on Dozier, we really need a fallback option or two. I also like Castro but he's signed for next year likely increasing his cost. So Cabrerra the guy with the best bat might be the cheapest option, given his really crappy D. I've looked past him simply because that D is so bad. Given how bad Nunez has been, that seems foolish though. You'd be getting the same D that let us be the best team in Baseball, but a massive upgrade to our line-up.
He's batting .280 .332 .487 .820 with a 125 OPS+. He also has an .350 wOBA 8th among guys at 2nd base and a .359 xwOBA good for third best behind only Altuve at .376 and Baez at .360. He's worth 1 bwar and 2 fwar, a massive upgrade over Nunez.
I'm highly intrigued by what he could do for the best offense in Baseball. Talk about scary!
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Post by oilcan73 on Jul 23, 2018 5:19:01 GMT -5
I have mentioned Cabrera in the past as well and I too, think he would be a nice addition to the lineup. A guy like him in the 8 spot would really deepen the lineup. Holt could return to his strength as the utility guy and they could jettison Nunez. Cabrera is a free agent at the end of the year, so he should come relatively cheap.
Unless ERod can come back healthy, I don't see this team being a WS contender this year. I just don't have faith in Price, Porcello or Pomeranz to get it done in the playoffs against NY or Houston, both of which I think will make a significant trade prior to the deadline and I actually think Cleveland might be better off for the playoffs than the Sox are, with deeper starting pitching, a solid lineup an improving bullpen and a proven playoff manager. This has been a great year for the Sox and I think they can hang in there for the division title, but I just see the playoffs ending early again.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 23, 2018 9:00:49 GMT -5
What are peoples thoughts on Asdrubal Cabrerra? He's about equal with Nunez defensively, but he's also likely the best bat you can get for 2B. Given he's on the Mets and everyone seems to be in on Dozier, we really need a fallback option or two. I also like Castro but he's signed for next year likely increasing his cost. So Cabrerra the guy with the best bat might be the cheapest option, given his really crappy D. I've looked past him simply because that D is so bad. Given how bad Nunez has been, that seems foolish though. You'd be getting the same D that let us be the best team in Baseball, but a massive upgrade to our line-up. He's batting .280 .332 .487 .820 with a 125 OPS+. He also has an .350 wOBA 8th among guys at 2nd base and a .359 xwOBA good for third best behind only Altuve at .376 and Baez at .360. He's worth 1 bwar and 2 fwar, a massive upgrade over Nunez. I'm highly intrigued by what he could do for the best offense in Baseball. Talk about scary! Endorse. I was thinking they would grab him last year but they got Nuñez instead. May not even cost them hardly anything as the Mets are, well, the Mets.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 23, 2018 9:08:45 GMT -5
One thing I just realized is that Nunez appears to have a reverse split this season as well as for his career.
2018
vs. LHP .211/.260/.289/.549
vs. RHP .267/.286/.379/.666
Career
vs. LHP .257/.291/.401/.692
vs. RHP .288/.326/.410/.736
Cabrera has a big split favoring righties this year but is pretty balanced in his career, whereas Dozier is pretty balanced this year but heavily favors lefties in his career.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 23, 2018 9:11:44 GMT -5
I believe the hit becomes even greater if they remain over next year. Whereas if they can re-set, then the penalty is less. Also, next year begins the front end of a two year cycle where quite a few players become free agents. So, immediately in the 2018 off-season, Pomeranz, Hanley and Kimbrel all become free agents and come off the books - about $41M. They will need to sign either Kimbrel or a another closer, and a starter or two, and some other pieces. Adding Machado to all that (or Harper for CF with a trade of JBJ) puts them way over, unless they do get Machado then trade Xander for someone in a position of need who is controllable for a couple or three years. There is big potential for turnover after 2019 - including JD - but do they extend Sale/Mookie/Xander in the next 12 months, as well? Lotta moving pieces. Also, very much a win-now roster this year/next year, as we’ve discussed. I doubt the Red Sox are major players for Machado. They have too many of their own guys to take care of. I don't see how they can try to give Mookie a huge deal and pay Chris Sale his money if they tie up all that money in Machado. It would be cheaper (even with Boras) to re-sign Bogaerts if it comes down to it than give Machado his $300 plus million. I agree in theory, especially about keeping Xander. He may actually be the easiest to extend of him, Mookie and Sale. Mookie looks like he's going to market unless the Sox make a top dollar/year deal with him. Sale is more interesting because, well, pitchers break and, as awesome as he's been, Dombrowski seems to like to take these matters to end. Either way, he'll likely want a David Price-sized deal at the very least. How man years will the Sox be willing to give is the question for any pitcher. Safe to say there is a lot of planning to account for in the next 12-18 months, and we don't know whom they plan to keep - and who they can keep. Machado/Harper could be Mookie insurance/JD opt-out insurance. Rare to get a shot at two generational talents so young. Theo said they used to do most moves with a five-year plan in mind. Guessing this group is similar and they are crunching numbers for the 2018 off-season and beyond. Either way, they will need starters as they will lose Pomeranz, and without extensions, Sale and Porcello. That said, a lot of money gets freed up after the 2019 season, but the marquee free agents won't be generational that off-season like this off-season. Also remember, Dombrowski's contract is reportedly up in 2019. That could affect things, though he is likely the easiest to extend/retain. Seems highly likely that if he wants another few years he'll get it, but in part depends if John Henry and Tom Werner are satisfied with the results given all the money they've spent.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 23, 2018 10:34:42 GMT -5
With so many questions about the Sox starting rotation now and in the next year, I think that if the Sox make any major acquisition at the deadline it should be a top-flight starting pitcher. That acquisition should be someone who is under contract for a couple more years. There aren't very many of those who possibly are on the market and any kind of deal would cost a lot, further weakening the farm system. However, it appears the Sox have brought a great deal of talent into the system this year and the system could be much stronger in another couple of years. Right now the Sox have a chance to go all the way if they have strong pitching. They have strong hitting. That doesn't need to be improved.
I m not ruling out the acquisition of an infielder, but that is just a gap-filler, not something that will have a material impact. The acquisition of a top-flight starter would have a material impact - like Houston's acquisition of Verlander last year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2018 10:44:54 GMT -5
This is what I was warning everyone about when it came to the Zach Britton sweepstakes. Funny. I laughed out loud and then said, "that's hysterically funny."
Heyman may have well tattooed "I'm a shill for my GM sources" on his forehead. The only reason he wouldn't is that it's already there.
However, this is true: right now it seems very likely that E-Rod will be back in the rotation for the post-season, which means your fourth starter (not necessarily your game 4 starter) is a choice between Steven Wright, Drew Pomeranz, and David Price.
If Pomeranz looks good on Tuesday, we'll be fairly confident that either Price of Pomeranz will be in the post-season bullpen. If Wright can also come back, both will be. Both should be capable of pitching the 7th. Thornburg's complete turnaround today combined with Brasier's emergence makes Britton more of a luxury then a need, too.
John Heyman is a good resource. The fact of the matter is that at least 6 teams are in on Britton and that's not a good thing if the Sox want Britton.
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 23, 2018 10:46:27 GMT -5
@dan_OMara Brian Dozier has the second highest Pull% (52%) in baseball & the the 11th highest FB% (46.1%). Right handed pull hitters with a propensity to hit the ball in the air usually play well at Fenway.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2018 10:49:50 GMT -5
@dan_OMara Brian Dozier has the second highest Pull% (52%) in baseball & the the 11th highest FB% (46.1%). Right handed pull hitters with a propensity to hit the ball in the air usually play well at Fenway. I have been saying this same thing over and over again on the trade forum. He's the best fit without hesitating.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 23, 2018 10:53:27 GMT -5
While I'm typically more of an OBP guy than a SLG guy, we can use some power hitters in key spots in the lineup to drive in all of the guys on base. Either way, I think that replacing Nunez with either Dozier or Cabrera will add to our lineup in a large way.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 23, 2018 10:57:37 GMT -5
@dan_OMara Brian Dozier has the second highest Pull% (52%) in baseball & the the 11th highest FB% (46.1%). Right handed pull hitters with a propensity to hit the ball in the air usually play well at Fenway. I have been saying this same thing over and over again on the trade forum. He's the best fit without hesitating. There is really no need for you to that same thing over and over and over and over and over and over again. Please refer to the ground rules regarding repetitive posts. It's not just this post/opinion, but several, that are repeated over and over again. There are times when saying nothing is appropriate. And since it's a message board, there is no awkward silence to deal with.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2018 11:03:33 GMT -5
I've now get all three of the necessary adjustments to Statcast's xwOBA for pitchers: balls hit to center field (data from FanGraphs), quality of opposition hitters (from BP), and park adjustment for K% and BB% (from the Bill James Handbook). Fenway is essentially neutral but Enron Maid is a pitcher's park, worth .004.
I obviously have no scouting reports so this is based on this year's performance as best as we can measure it, with some added insight from apparent changes in performance.
Starting Pitching, Short Term. The only two available pitchers who would be an upgrade to Brian Johnson (.323 including his 106 xFIP-, .385 BABIP, and .167 HR/FB in his first 10 relief outings) are Nathan Eovaldi and J.A. Happ ( both .301). And of course everyone looking for a potential #2 starter will be all over them.
So it comes down to whether you feel like you might need to upgrade Hector Velazquez (.334 including relief, and I don't see any split by role) because Drew Pomeranz is below average in his two remaining starts. The four candidates are Kyle Gibson (.317), Zack Wheeler (.319), Mike Fiers (.335 but much better in his last 10 starts than his first 9) and Matt Harvey (.345 but much better better since the trade to Cinci).
I think there's a very good chance that Pomeranz is good enough to render this moot. He doesn't have to be great, just league average or a bit better, and that's a low bar.
Starting Pitching, Long Term. I'd like folks to list the guys who were able to walk off the field with a sprained ankle but were out for three months as a result. I think there's every reason to believe that a healthy Eduardo Rodriguez (.294) will be part of the post-season rotation.
Steven Wright (.326 but including the annihilation pitching with the injured knee) suffered a re-inflamation of his knee and then suffered a setback in his recovery that prevented him from throwing off the mound 3 1/2 weeks after he was shut down. Recovery from that setback has to be shorter, correct? He should be able to start throwing in mid-August, right? In fact, b-Ref has an unsourced update dated Saturday that the plan is for early August. If you want to say it's a coin toss that he'll be available by mid-September, go ahead and I won't argue at all, but I think the odds are somewhat better. If Pomeranz pitches well, they will have the luxury of being very careful with Wright - and they now have some data to avoid another episode of the knee blowing up on him. You forget just how good he is at your own peril (of suffering undue pessimism over the rest of the season).
Once you estimate the likelihood of their return, it makes acquiring a starter at the deadline really hard to defend. They can go after someone at the waiver deadline if it turns out that they need to.
A post-season rotation with Sale (.244), both E-Rod and Wright, and Porcello (.313) can compete with anyone, even Houston's formidable Verlander (.241), Morton (.289), Cole (.295), and Keuchel (.310). If Wright never comes back, then you can hope on either Pomeranz or Price stepping up, and if neither does, Brian Johnson is way better than Al Nipper, and you should know which season I'm referring to specifically. The quality of game 4 starters for WS winners is shockingly low--they have often been actual 4th starters, i.e., below league average.
The Yankees have Severino (.288), Sabathia (.299), TBD, and Tanaka (.331). Gray is .335.
Who might TBD be? One guy I haven't heard mentioned is Jordan Zimmerman (.299 but much better since coming off the DL in mid-June). He's signed for two more years at a $22M AAV, which I think would put the Yankees over the tax limit, but they might well like him better than Happ or Eovaldi and they could dump part of Ellsbury's contract on the Tigers.
Next up: relief.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2018 11:07:03 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2018 11:14:49 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2018 11:16:42 GMT -5
Funny. I laughed out loud and then said, "that's hysterically funny."
Heyman may have well tattooed "I'm a shill for my GM sources" on his forehead. The only reason he wouldn't is that it's already there.
However, this is true: right now it seems very likely that E-Rod will be back in the rotation for the post-season, which means your fourth starter (not necessarily your game 4 starter) is a choice between Steven Wright, Drew Pomeranz, and David Price.
If Pomeranz looks good on Tuesday, we'll be fairly confident that either Price of Pomeranz will be in the post-season bullpen. If Wright can also come back, both will be. Both should be capable of pitching the 7th. Thornburg's complete turnaround today combined with Brasier's emergence makes Britton more of a luxury then a need, too.
John Heyman is a good resource. The fact of the matter is that at least 6 teams are in on Britton and that's not a good thing if the Sox want Britton. What was hysterically funny is notion of the O's doing as well with Britton as they did with Machado. When both were in their spectacular primes, Machado was literally more than twice as valuable as Britton. And Britton now has risk that Machado doesn't.
It's one thing for a writer to have good sources and another for them to know when (or care whether) their sources are b'sing them.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2018 11:21:53 GMT -5
Geeze, Jerry Crasnik, to say that conclusion doesn't follow from the facts is a massive understatement.
If you think you might need a reliever, you send your most trusted FO scouting talents. That's their job.
If Thornburg and Brasier each have two or three great outings in the week before the deadline, they'll pass on acquiring anyone without a second thought. But you have to cover yourself if they don't, and projecting relievers is the scouting and sabermetric equivalent of trying to hit Sales's slider -- as tough as the job gets.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 23, 2018 11:25:38 GMT -5
How about trading for Bundy and putting him in the bullpen? I bet he'd be like Andrew Miller out there.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 23, 2018 11:28:06 GMT -5
Bundy would cost way too much. If he's available, someone would want him as a starter. He's still only 25 and he's basically a league average starter in spite of the Orioles incompetence.
Unless you're talking about putting him in the bullpen this year and using him as a starter long term. I'd be 100% down with that but very much question that the Red Sox have the pieces to do it.
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 23, 2018 11:30:07 GMT -5
@jcrasnick The #RedSox have Frank Wren and Allard Baird scouring the market for relievers. "The big dogs,'' said one scout. So you know they're serious about getting something done this week.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 23, 2018 11:32:27 GMT -5
Bundy would cost way too much. If he's available, someone would want him as a starter. He's still only 25 and he's basically a league average starter in spite of the Orioles incompetence. Unless you're talking about putting him in the bullpen this year and using him as a starter long term. I'd be 100% down with that but very much question that the Red Sox have the pieces to do it. Yeah, I'm dreaming. Was thinking the latter. Just trying to think outside the box because I don't see much that can improve the Red Sox outside of 2B. Maybe Gausman would be another candidate.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 23, 2018 11:45:59 GMT -5
I've now get all three of the necessary adjustments to Statcast's xwOBA for pitchers: balls hit to center field (data from FanGraphs), quality of opposition hitters (from BP), and park adjustment for K% and BB% (from the Bill James Handbook). Fenway is essentially neutral but Enron Maid is a pitcher's park, worth .004.
I obviously have no scouting reports so this is based on this year's performance as best as we can measure it, with some added insight from apparent changes in performance.
Starting Pitching, Short Term. The only two available pitchers who would be an upgrade to Brian Johnson (.323 including his 106 xFIP-, .385 BABIP, and .167 HR/FB in his first 10 relief outings) are Nathan Eovaldi and J.A. Happ ( both .301). And of course everyone looking for a potential #2 starter will be all over them.
So it comes down to whether you feel like you might need to upgrade Hector Velazquez (.334 including relief, and I don't see any split by role) because Drew Pomeranz is below average in his two remaining starts. The four candidates are Kyle Gibson (.317), Zack Wheeler (.319), Mike Fiers (.335 but much better in his last 10 starts than his first 9) and Matt Harvey (.345 but much better better since the trade to Cinci).
I think there's a very good chance that Pomeranz is good enough to render this moot. He doesn't have to be great, just league average or a bit better, and that's a low bar.
Starting Pitching, Long Term. I'd like folks to list the guys who were able to walk off the field with a sprained ankle but were out for three months as a result. I think there's every reason to believe that a healthy Eduardo Rodriguez (.294) will be part of the post-season rotation.
Steven Wright (.326 but including the annihilation pitching with the injured knee) suffered a re-inflamation of his knee and then suffered a setback in his recovery that prevented him from throwing off the mound 3 1/2 weeks after he was shut down. Recovery from that setback has to be shorter, correct? He should be able to start throwing in mid-August, right? In fact, b-Ref has an unsourced update dated Saturday that the plan is for early August. If you want to say it's a coin toss that he'll be available by mid-September, go ahead and I won't argue at all, but I think the odds are somewhat better. If Pomeranz pitches well, they will have the luxury of being very careful with Wright - and they now have some data to avoid another episode of the knee blowing up on him. You forget just how good he is at your own peril (of suffering undue pessimism over the rest of the season).
Once you estimate the likelihood of their return, it makes acquiring a starter at the deadline really hard to defend. They can go after someone at the waiver deadline if it turns out that they need to.
A post-season rotation with Sale (.244), both E-Rod and Wright, and Porcello (.313) can compete with anyone, even Houston's formidable Verlander (.241), Morton (.289), Cole (.295), and Keuchel (.310). If Wright never comes back, then you can hope on either Pomeranz or Price stepping up, and if neither does, Brian Johnson is way better than Al Nipper, and you should know which season I'm referring to specifically. The quality of game 4 starters for WS winners is shockingly low--they have often been actual 4th starters, i.e., below league average.
The Yankees have Severino (.288), Sabathia (.299), TBD, and Tanaka (.331). Gray is .335.
Who might TBD be? One guy I haven't heard mentioned is Jordan Zimmerman (.299 but much better since coming off the DL in mid-June). He's signed for two more years at a $22M AAV, which I think would put the Yankees over the tax limit, but they might well like him better than Happ or Eovaldi and they could dump part of Ellsbury's contract on the Tigers.
Next up: relief.
Not only did ERod walk off the field, but he walked over towards the mound, and talked with trainers for a bit on the mound before walking back off. So he at least thought about staying in.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 23, 2018 11:46:31 GMT -5
It seems like teams (or fans more-so) feel they need to add a piece this time of year (assuming your in contention) just because, well, because you're supposed to. You may not be enamored with the Sox depth options, but they do have depth, in both sp and rp. I'd rather not give up much of a prospect of any kind for a bullpen piece that is unlikely to be any better than what we have or the prospects it would likely take to get Britton.
Maybe if you're going for a bigger upgrade that will be available next year+, too, but then I doubt we have the pieces. If you want HIGH end talent with control, be prepared to say goodbye to Devers. Now you may be ok with that, but what Devers offers is a guy that most believe will be a stud who under control at a low cost for the next 5 years (or is it 6, I'm not looking it up right now).
Perhaps Cabrerra is cheap enough and would be a nice upgrade at 2b.
I'm really ok doing nothing. But it's so hard to tell how healthy or not Erod, Pom and Wright are. Do the Sox expect Pedey back this year? Only they know all the info (seems doubtful).
If we get 3 rainouts in Baltimore as some have suggested (seems unlikely), then it will be less opportunity to see more of Pom, Brasier, and Thornburg before the deadline.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 23, 2018 11:57:33 GMT -5
I've now get all three of the necessary adjustments to Statcast's xwOBA for pitchers: balls hit to center field (data from FanGraphs), quality of opposition hitters (from BP), and park adjustment for K% and BB% (from the Bill James Handbook). Fenway is essentially neutral but Enron Maid is a pitcher's park, worth .004. I obviously have no scouting reports so this is based on this year's performance as best as we can measure it, with some added insight from apparent changes in performance.
Starting Pitching, Short Term. The only two available pitchers who would be an upgrade to Brian Johnson (.323 including his 106 xFIP-, .385 BABIP, and .167 HR/FB in his first 10 relief outings) are Nathan Eovaldi and J.A. Happ ( both .301). And of course everyone looking for a potential #2 starter will be all over them. So it comes down to whether you feel like you might need to upgrade Hector Velazquez (.334 including relief, and I don't see any split by role) because Drew Pomeranz is below average in his two remaining starts. The four candidates are Kyle Gibson (.317), Zack Wheeler (.319), Mike Fiers (.335 but much better in his last 10 starts than his first 9) and Matt Harvey (.345 but much better better since the trade to Cinci).
I think there's a very good chance that Pomeranz is good enough to render this moot. He doesn't have to be great, just league average or a bit better, and that's a low bar.
Starting Pitching, Long Term. I'd like folks to list the guys who were able to walk off the field with a sprained ankle but were out for three months as a result. I think there's every reason to believe that a healthy Eduardo Rodriguez (.294) will be part of the post-season rotation.
Steven Wright (.326 but including the annihilation pitching with the injured knee) suffered a re-inflamation of his knee and then suffered a setback in his recovery that prevented him from throwing off the mound 3 1/2 weeks after he was shut down. Recovery from that setback has to be shorter, correct? He should be able to start throwing in mid-August, right? In fact, b-Ref has an unsourced update dated Saturday that the plan is for early August. If you want to say it's a coin toss that he'll be available by mid-September, go ahead and I won't argue at all, but I think the odds are somewhat better. If Pomeranz pitches well, they will have the luxury of being very careful with Wright - and they now have some data to avoid another episode of the knee blowing up on him. You forget just how good he is at your own peril (of suffering undue pessimism over the rest of the season). Once you estimate the likelihood of their return, it makes acquiring a starter at the deadline really hard to defend. They can go after someone at the waiver deadline if it turns out that they need to.
A post-season rotation with Sale (.244), both E-Rod and Wright, and Porcello (.313) can compete with anyone, even Houston's formidable Verlander (.241), Morton (.289), Cole (.295), and Keuchel (.310). If Wright never comes back, then you can hope on either Pomeranz or Price stepping up, and if neither does, Brian Johnson is way better than Al Nipper, and you should know which season I'm referring to specifically. The quality of game 4 starters for WS winners is shockingly low--they have often been actual 4th starters, i.e., below league average.
The Yankees have Severino (.288), Sabathia (.299), TBD, and Tanaka (.331). Gray is .335.
Who might TBD be? One guy I haven't heard mentioned is Jordan Zimmerman (.299 but much better since coming off the DL in mid-June). He's signed for two more years at a $22M AAV, which I think would put the Yankees over the tax limit, but they might well like him better than Happ or Eovaldi and they could dump part of Ellsbury's contract on the Tigers.
Next up: relief.
Not only did ERod walk off the field, but he walked over towards the mound, and talked with trainers for a bit on the mound before walking back off. So he at least thought about staying in. Yes....So please....nobody call him soft. He had a severe injury. Just looking at his ankle roll over was gut-wrenching.
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