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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 23, 2018 12:40:11 GMT -5
Part of me wants to throw at Gurriel for the stupid decision to dive headfirst into first base leading to E-rod's injury. He doesn't get all of the blame of course, but I imagine it would have been different if he ran into first base like a normal adult.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2018 12:45:10 GMT -5
I believe in Brasier, Kimbrel, Barnes, and maybe Thornburg if he keeps flashing like yesterday. Hembree is okay too.
It's everyone beyond that that are in question. I think that's why Dombrowski is hunting for a reliever.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jul 23, 2018 12:51:30 GMT -5
It seems like teams (or fans more-so) feel they need to add a piece this time of year (assuming your in contention) just because, well, because you're supposed to. You may not be enamored with the Sox depth options, but they do have depth, in both sp and rp. I'd rather not give up much of a prospect of any kind for a bullpen piece that is unlikely to be any better than what we have or the prospects it would likely take to get Britton. Maybe if you're going for a bigger upgrade that will be available next year+, too, but then I doubt we have the pieces. If you want HIGH end talent with control, be prepared to say goodbye to Devers. Now you may be ok with that, but what Devers offers is a guy that most believe will be a stud who under control at a low cost for the next 5 years (or is it 6, I'm not looking it up right now). Perhaps Cabrerra is cheap enough and would be a nice upgrade at 2b. I'm really ok doing nothing. But it's so hard to tell how healthy or not Erod, Pom and Wright are. Do the Sox expect Pedey back this year? Only they know all the info (seems doubtful). If we get 3 rainouts in Baltimore as some have suggested (seems unlikely), then it will be less opportunity to see more of Pom, Brasier, and Thornburg before the deadline. I agree. Plus they already did make one move- for Pearce - which seems to be working out pretty well. Just not sure there is anyone out there who is for certain better than what we already have that we can get or that won't put us over the cap. Absolutely do not want to trade Devers.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2018 13:04:41 GMT -5
I think it's also ironic that a lot of the same people that hate on SSS a lot of the time on here are also saying that the next 8 days are important in terms of what you need at the deadline.
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Post by bcsox on Jul 23, 2018 13:55:52 GMT -5
relatively new poster but long time lurker so I understand the importance of citing sources, so I apologize in advance but the word from inside the clubhouse is that EROD is still another four weeks out and that is if all goes right.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2018 15:18:49 GMT -5
relatively new poster but long time lurker so I understand the importance of citing sources, so I apologize in advance but the word from inside the clubhouse is that EROD is still another four weeks out and that is if all goes right. I've assumed from the beginning that neither he nor Wright would try too hard to make it back before rosters expand on 9/1.
If Johnson keeps pitching the way he has (*) the downgrade from E-Rod to him over 11 starts is a lot less than people think. For it to be a full win, E-Rod would have to be 3 WAR better per season. I think it's half that.
I think that folks have forgotten that contenders often have a weak 5th starter (as opposed to four 3rd-starter or borderline 3rd/4th starters vying for the job). It's not just the Yankees with their Sonny Gray problem; Tyler Chatwood has been an even bigger disappointment for the Cubs, on his way to an 0.6 bWAR season and sporting a .372 jxwOBA (the "j" for my three adjustments, and the JXW should be a Jaguar model, shouldn't it?) .
In fact, if both Johnson and Price continue pitching like they have been, E-Rod's return would give you your power 8th inning LHR. How much salary would you forego to start instead of relieve?
(*) I did argue back in ST that BJ would be this good. I'm not sure my rationale was sound, but ... fingers crossed!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2018 15:31:26 GMT -5
I think it's also ironic that a lot of the same people that hate on SSS a lot of the time on here are also saying that the next 8 days are important in terms of what you need at the deadline. I think it's somewhat legit for Thornburg, because it's all based on eyeball-driven stuff (pun intended) like velo and command rather than deep metrics (although if a guy throws all strikes, they do converge). If he can't repeat the apparent dramatic mechanical fix in his next few outings, that will be discouraging.
Ditto for Pomeranz. (How did I forget he was relevant?)
In Brasier's case, he's rocked a .262 jxwOBA in his SSS (Kimbrel is .255) and both his stuff and AAA numbers make it look credible. We're just looking for more evidence that we're not hallucinating.
Tyler Thornburg, BTW, was .258 with the Brewers in 2016.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 23, 2018 15:31:58 GMT -5
Ouch. And the same is implied re: Wright and his balky knee. If Pom looks good, however, and he certainly could, the Sale, Porcello, Price, Pom, Johnson, Velasquez, hopefully Beeks rotatation, though weakened, remains formidable. Add a September, with several all hands on deck "bullpen games" should be fine, especially with the hope of ERod and/or Wright returning. This Raycist approach would utilize the Sox vast relief depth, which is a strength. It is a rare strength that can and should be maximized in September, both to show different, potentiially dominant looks and to aid offseason maneuverings. So IMO we need not be overly worried about wasting prospects while trading for a #5 starter. It's already covered.
Edit: this was in response to bcsox a few posts back. Don't know why the quote was not included. And what eric said
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 23, 2018 16:27:30 GMT -5
Seems like the biggest need then based on all this info, is an infielder.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 23, 2018 17:39:40 GMT -5
The one thing about DD is that when he sets his mind to getting "a guy" in the bullpen, he'll get a guy. Take it to the bank! In no way can Brasier or Thornburg change his mind. No matter what they do they are still risky, he wants a guy that is less risky. After he gets the guy, everyone will have two months to audition for the playoffs and a role.
Getting a guy for second seems likely also, unless DD feels Pedroia can come back. Given the reports that seems unlikely. I just have no clue who he'd go after, given there have been almost no reports targeting a guy for 2b. Its by far the easiest position to upgrade though.
I don't see getting a starter. Maybe if he finds the right deal. I wouldn't mind a Harvey, but almost every contender will feel the same way.
Just remember they don't call him trader Dave for nothing. When he wants to make deals, he will make deals. Given this team it makes sense to add a reliever and a guy for 2B.
I do wonder if we missed the boat on Familiar though. A package deal of Familiar and Cabrera would have been nice. Also would have been at a cost that wouldn't kill the farm. Going to prefict Soria and Cabrera now. I'm also going to predict the cost for Soria is going to make us wish we got Familiar. I just think Soria having an option next year makes it easier for ownership to go over the 237 tax line. You're getting help this year and insurance for next year.
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 23, 2018 18:06:03 GMT -5
Folks keep on suggesting we rent Moustakas as an upgrade to the work in progress that is Rafel Devers. I think that's crazy. What you gain on the field is more than offset by the vote of no confidence in the kid. You all know that I'm 100% all-in on him.
But there is a 3B rental that makes sense.
Adrian Beltre. Devers' idol. The explicit idea is for Devers to learn as much from him as possible while being his backup, and still getting a couple of starts a week. Beltre is 39 and will need days off.
Beltre has been a +17 R/150 fielder (DRS) and has a .341 xwOBA. He was having a terrible July until the ASB; he went 3/9, 2B, HR in two games against the Indians.
Beltre has his 10 and 5 no-trade and reportedly a) wants to stay in Texas but b) would love to have another shot at a WS title. Although the only teammate that remains from 2010 is Pedroia, he knows the city and the ballpark and this is the place where his career turned around. Boston might be the only place that he would waive his no-trade for, so the acquisition cost would be minimal. In fact, you could probably get the Rangers to eat some of the $6M he's owed. Any salary relief and any player they get for him is a positive.
This idea makes so much sense that I'm surprised we haven't heard it before.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 23, 2018 18:09:29 GMT -5
Folks keep on suggesting we rent Moustakas as an upgrade to the work in progress that is Rafel Devers. I think that's crazy. What you gain on the field is more than offset by the vote of no confidence in the kid. You all know that I'm 100% all-in on him.
But there is a 3B rental that makes sense.
Adrian Beltre. Devers' idol. The explicit idea is for Devers to learn as much from him as possible while being his backup, and still getting a couple of starts a week. Beltre is 39 and will need days off.
Beltre has been a +17 R/150 fielder (DRS) and has a .341 xwOBA. He was having a terrible July until the ASB; he went 3/9, 2B, HR in two games against the Indians.
Beltre has his 10 and 5 no-trade and reportedly a) wants to stay in Texas but b) would love to have another shot at a WS title. Although the only teammate that remains from 2010 is Pedroia, he knows the city and the ballpark and this is the place where his career turned around. Boston might be the only place that he would waive his no-trade for, so the acquisition cost would be minimal. In fact, you could probably get the Rangers to eat some of the $6M he's owed. Any salary relief and any player they get for him is a positive.
This idea makes so much sense that I'm surprised we haven't heard it before.
I like the idea, but think that a 2B is a bigger need. That being said, Beltre bats righty and Devers bats lefty, so either way if we get Beltre or Dozier, we can jettison Nunez and pair Beltre/Dozier with Holt/Devers accordingly. Not a strict platoon, but there's coverage and balance. I also imagine that Beltre as a clubhouse guy has its benefits. That and he and Big Sexy are the only 2 remaining players that played in the 90's I believe.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 23, 2018 18:19:39 GMT -5
The only way we should be looking at trades is based on winning in the post season. Nothing else is relevant. They are making the playoffs no matter what happens and it’s virtually impossible for them not to win 100 games at this point.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 23, 2018 19:11:44 GMT -5
Folks keep on suggesting we rent Moustakas as an upgrade to the work in progress that is Rafel Devers. I think that's crazy. What you gain on the field is more than offset by the vote of no confidence in the kid. You all know that I'm 100% all-in on him.
But there is a 3B rental that makes sense.
Adrian Beltre. Devers' idol. The explicit idea is for Devers to learn as much from him as possible while being his backup, and still getting a couple of starts a week. Beltre is 39 and will need days off.
Beltre has been a +17 R/150 fielder (DRS) and has a .341 xwOBA. He was having a terrible July until the ASB; he went 3/9, 2B, HR in two games against the Indians.
Beltre has his 10 and 5 no-trade and reportedly a) wants to stay in Texas but b) would love to have another shot at a WS title. Although the only teammate that remains from 2010 is Pedroia, he knows the city and the ballpark and this is the place where his career turned around. Boston might be the only place that he would waive his no-trade for, so the acquisition cost would be minimal. In fact, you could probably get the Rangers to eat some of the $6M he's owed. Any salary relief and any player they get for him is a positive.
This idea makes so much sense that I'm surprised we haven't heard it before.
I like the idea, but what do you do when Christian Vazquez comes back? It seems like Swihart would have to go as you'd need to keep two players on the roster that can play second base, I doubt they'd want to rely on Holt alone. Given his playing time it seems that the Sox may be okay with this, but they have kept around this long for a reason. I sort of feel they may rather bet on Devers to turn it around on his own and be able to keep Swihart.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 23, 2018 19:44:03 GMT -5
Folks keep on suggesting we rent Moustakas as an upgrade to the work in progress that is Rafel Devers. I think that's crazy. What you gain on the field is more than offset by the vote of no confidence in the kid. You all know that I'm 100% all-in on him.
But there is a 3B rental that makes sense. Adrian Beltre. Devers' idol. The explicit idea is for Devers to learn as much from him as possible while being his backup, and still getting a couple of starts a week. Beltre is 39 and will need days off.
Beltre has been a +17 R/150 fielder (DRS) and has a .341 xwOBA. He was having a terrible July until the ASB; he went 3/9, 2B, HR in two games against the Indians.
Beltre has his 10 and 5 no-trade and reportedly a) wants to stay in Texas but b) would love to have another shot at a WS title. Although the only teammate that remains from 2010 is Pedroia, he knows the city and the ballpark and this is the place where his career turned around. Boston might be the only place that he would waive his no-trade for, so the acquisition cost would be minimal. In fact, you could probably get the Rangers to eat some of the $6M he's owed. Any salary relief and any player they get for him is a positive.
This idea makes so much sense that I'm surprised we haven't heard it before. I like the idea, but what do you do when Christian Vazquez comes back? It seems like Swihart would have to go as you'd need to keep two players on the roster that can play second base, I doubt they'd want to rely on Holt alone. Given his playing time it seems that the Sox may be okay with this, but they have kept around this long for a reason. I sort of feel they may rather bet on Devers to turn it around on his own and be able to keep Swihart. Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're asking, Vazquez won't be back until at least Sept 1st when the rosters expand. Swihart's spot on the team should be safe this season.
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Post by soxcentral on Jul 23, 2018 19:57:38 GMT -5
Folks keep on suggesting we rent Moustakas as an upgrade to the work in progress that is Rafel Devers. I think that's crazy. What you gain on the field is more than offset by the vote of no confidence in the kid. You all know that I'm 100% all-in on him.
But there is a 3B rental that makes sense. Adrian Beltre. Devers' idol. The explicit idea is for Devers to learn as much from him as possible while being his backup, and still getting a couple of starts a week. Beltre is 39 and will need days off.
Beltre has been a +17 R/150 fielder (DRS) and has a .341 xwOBA. He was having a terrible July until the ASB; he went 3/9, 2B, HR in two games against the Indians.
Beltre has his 10 and 5 no-trade and reportedly a) wants to stay in Texas but b) would love to have another shot at a WS title. Although the only teammate that remains from 2010 is Pedroia, he knows the city and the ballpark and this is the place where his career turned around. Boston might be the only place that he would waive his no-trade for, so the acquisition cost would be minimal. In fact, you could probably get the Rangers to eat some of the $6M he's owed. Any salary relief and any player they get for him is a positive.
This idea makes so much sense that I'm surprised we haven't heard it before. We have
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Post by telson13 on Jul 23, 2018 20:30:46 GMT -5
I believe in Brasier, Kimbrel, Barnes, and maybe Thornburg if he keeps flashing like yesterday. Hembree is okay too. It's everyone beyond that that are in question. I think that's why Dombrowski is hunting for a reliever. I’m buying Brasier, although I’m not quite sure yet if he’s awesome, very good, or just serviceably good. Kimbrel/Barnes is a terrific back-end, but they need a guy who can get lefties because Barnes isn’t terrific at that. Kelly has been, so it’d help a lot if he rounds back to April/May form. I’m not sold at all on Thornburg. He could be very good if his command were more consistent, but I don’t think they can count on him to be. I like Hembree more than you, but he’s not great, just solid. He is occasionally dominant, and his LHH split penalty is essentially nonexistent (a nice 2-yr development). I’m a little bummed that they didn’t get Familia...outside of the blood clots last year, he’s been excellent if not elite, and his SwStr rate is outstanding. Idk...if they don’t get Britton (and you’re right that the Sox aren’t winning a bidding war bs Houston, if it comes to that), there’s not really anyone out there I’m high on. Soria is solid and has experience, but I’d really like to see a more dominant arm. Hell, give Buttrey, Jerez, and Lakins looks I guess, and concentrate on Dozier.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 23, 2018 20:32:43 GMT -5
Folks keep on suggesting we rent Moustakas as an upgrade to the work in progress that is Rafel Devers. I think that's crazy. What you gain on the field is more than offset by the vote of no confidence in the kid. You all know that I'm 100% all-in on him.
But there is a 3B rental that makes sense. Adrian Beltre. Devers' idol. The explicit idea is for Devers to learn as much from him as possible while being his backup, and still getting a couple of starts a week. Beltre is 39 and will need days off.
Beltre has been a +17 R/150 fielder (DRS) and has a .341 xwOBA. He was having a terrible July until the ASB; he went 3/9, 2B, HR in two games against the Indians.
Beltre has his 10 and 5 no-trade and reportedly a) wants to stay in Texas but b) would love to have another shot at a WS title. Although the only teammate that remains from 2010 is Pedroia, he knows the city and the ballpark and this is the place where his career turned around. Boston might be the only place that he would waive his no-trade for, so the acquisition cost would be minimal. In fact, you could probably get the Rangers to eat some of the $6M he's owed. Any salary relief and any player they get for him is a positive.
This idea makes so much sense that I'm surprised we haven't heard it before. We have I’d love to see Beltre in a Sox uni again. Especially if someone dares to rub his head.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 23, 2018 20:35:29 GMT -5
I like the idea, but what do you do when Christian Vazquez comes back? It seems like Swihart would have to go as you'd need to keep two players on the roster that can play second base, I doubt they'd want to rely on Holt alone. Given his playing time it seems that the Sox may be okay with this, but they have kept around this long for a reason. I sort of feel they may rather bet on Devers to turn it around on his own and be able to keep Swihart. Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're asking, Vazquez won't be back until at least Sept 1st when the rosters expand. Swihart's spot on the team should be safe this season. Plus, they have both Holt and Lin, and ideally Dozier. Nunez would be an easy waive. Please, please, Blake Swihart...be the guy we all hoped you’d be back in 2014.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 23, 2018 20:51:07 GMT -5
The only way we should be looking at trades is based on winning in the post season. Nothing else is relevant. They are making the playoffs no matter what happens and it’s virtually impossible for them not to win 100 games at this point. I think there’s a lot of validity to putting a great deal of weight on not playing the WC game. That’s a huge issue, even aside from the probably 65/35 best-chance odds of winning it. I want no part of Paxton, nor am I interested in giving Manaea an opportunity to embarrass them again. Now, Manaea’s no Paxton, but Familia/Trivino/Treinen is a nasty 7-8-9. Add a couple extra outs on playoff need/adrenaline, and they don’t need a starter for more than 5 1/3 or so. Even bigger though is the issue of having to use Sale, losing home field advantage (which is huge for the Sox, given their offense’s Fenway benefit), and the small but real issue of injuries down the stretch and in the WC game. I’m almost never a “win now” guy, but I think clear upgrades (say, a legit 7th/8th inning arm and a 2b who can hit and field adequately) can serve both purposes. As for Beltre, I think you could argue his case convincingly as a legitimate playoff weapon, when combined with Devers.
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 23, 2018 21:06:47 GMT -5
@mikeberardino Brian Dozier now removed from the game
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Jul 23, 2018 21:16:12 GMT -5
@mikeberardino Brian Dozier now removed from the game They also removed Rosario and Escobar. Could be just late inning replacements in the 8th being up 8-1. Interesting that Rodney is pitching for the Twins up 8-1. Scouts in attendance. EDIT: Rodney not exactly impressing - gave up 2 runs in the 9th. Maybe it was the non-save situation.
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Post by ortiz34 on Jul 23, 2018 21:20:58 GMT -5
@mikeberardino Brian Dozier now removed from the game They also removed Rosario and Escobar. Could be just late inning replacements in the 8th being up 8-1. Interesting that Rodney is pitching for the Twins up 8-1. Scouts in attendance. Or he is going to Brewers along with EScobar. Brewers apparently want both.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 23, 2018 21:27:08 GMT -5
Red Sox stats really wants Kirby Yates. He's definitely a name that has popped up multiple times.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 23, 2018 22:22:53 GMT -5
I just started looking at Escobar, would suck if two options disappear in one trade.
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