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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 18, 2018 19:14:40 GMT -5
Turning out the lights with this thought: the Sox haven't lost a game all year when they led by this much this early (based on Win Probability).
Of course, the closest contender was three days ago, when they blew 84.9% in the second. They're at 87-88% now. (Oops, 91%+ while I type.)
And Price's last 5 starts now:
29.1 22 3 3 5 28. ERA is 0.92.
He really wants the post-season game 2 start, and 5 starts ago he looked like he'd be a setup guy.
I'd bet that Leon was catching Price in each of these starts.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 18, 2018 19:17:12 GMT -5
OK, I lied.
Assuming we win this game, we'll tie the A's for the best record in MLB since June 15, at 40-13.
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Post by awall on Aug 18, 2018 19:20:27 GMT -5
That was a gift.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Aug 18, 2018 19:20:37 GMT -5
Sure, I'll take the free out. Thanks, Pham.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 18, 2018 19:20:58 GMT -5
Thanking us for the 1st I guess
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 18, 2018 19:23:36 GMT -5
Really? Nobody said "Wham, bam, thank you Pham!"?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 18, 2018 19:24:20 GMT -5
Was just thinking to our earlier baserunning blunder - we've had far less of those recently. Something that thankfully seems to be improving.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 18, 2018 19:30:58 GMT -5
Turning out the lights with this thought: the Sox haven't lost a game all year when they led by this much this early (based on Win Probability).
Of course, the closest contender was three days ago, when they blew 84.9% in the second. They're at 87-88% now. (Oops, 91%+ while I type.)
And Price's last 5 starts now:
29.1 22 3 3 5 28. ERA is 0.92.
He really wants the post-season game 2 start, and 5 starts ago he looked like he'd be a setup guy.
I'd bet that Leon was catching Price in each of these starts. He started catching him one start before that, when he gave up a 2B and 2-run HR in the first inning vs. the Jays (while fanning the side), and put up a 5.2 4 1 1 0 5 line thereafter. Which is sort of indistinguishable from what he's done since.
He caught him once previously, and that was May 17 in Baltimore where Machado spoiled his shutout with 2 outs in the ninth. It remains his highest Game Score of the season. That kind of separates the cause and effect (otherwise you could think that Leon might have just happened to start catching him at the right time).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 18, 2018 19:39:24 GMT -5
I'd bet that Leon was catching Price in each of these starts. He started catching him one start before that, when he gave up a 2B and 2-run HR in the first inning vs. the Jays (while fanning the side), and put up a 5.2 4 1 1 0 5 line thereafter. Which is sort of indistinguishable from what he's done since.
He caught him once previously, and that was May 17 in Baltimore where Machado spoiled his shutout with 2 outs in the ninth. It remains his highest Game Score of the season. That kind of separates the cause and effect (otherwise you could think that Leon might have just happened to start catching him at the right time).
I had to check it and confirm it myself. Vazquez caught Price regularly until July 7th. That was Price's last really bad start. His ERA was all the way up to 4.44 after that start. Ever since Leon has caught him regularly his ERA has dropped to 3.75 after his last start and it keeps dropping with this start. There's something to be said about Vazquez here. If he doesn't call a good game like Leon does, then that drops his value demonstrably. At best Vazquez is a league average catcher hitting wise, if he's not making up for it defensively, then why would you want to keep him past this season?
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 18, 2018 19:40:37 GMT -5
Rip Mazz you were dunked on by an intern
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 18, 2018 19:44:53 GMT -5
He started catching him one start before that, when he gave up a 2B and 2-run HR in the first inning vs. the Jays (while fanning the side), and put up a 5.2 4 1 1 0 5 line thereafter. Which is sort of indistinguishable from what he's done since.
He caught him once previously, and that was May 17 in Baltimore where Machado spoiled his shutout with 2 outs in the ninth. It remains his highest Game Score of the season. That kind of separates the cause and effect (otherwise you could think that Leon might have just happened to start catching him at the right time).
I had to check it and confirm it myself. Vazquez caught Price regularly until July 7th. That was Price's last really bad start. His ERA was all the way up to 4.44 after that start. Ever since Leon has caught him regularly his ERA has dropped to 3.75 after his last start. There's something to be said about Vazquez here. If he doesn't call a good game like Leon does, then that drops his value demonstrably. At best Vazquez is a league average catcher hitting wise, if he's not making up for it defensively, then why would you want to keep him past this season? Not that I disagree in the general case but CERA and the like are pretty useless, especially when you are talking about cases like this, The difference in Price is much more likely to be changes attributable to Price himself, not the catcher.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 18, 2018 19:47:48 GMT -5
Wow. That was high and gone.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 18, 2018 19:48:05 GMT -5
I had to check it and confirm it myself. Vazquez caught Price regularly until July 7th. That was Price's last really bad start. His ERA was all the way up to 4.44 after that start. Ever since Leon has caught him regularly his ERA has dropped to 3.75 after his last start. There's something to be said about Vazquez here. If he doesn't call a good game like Leon does, then that drops his value demonstrably. At best Vazquez is a league average catcher hitting wise, if he's not making up for it defensively, then why would you want to keep him past this season? Not that I disagree in the general case but catcher CERA is pretty useless, especially when you are talking about cases like this, The difference in Price is much more likely to be changes attributable to Price himself, not the catcher. Price is the one pitching, so you're probably 75 percent right about that, but Price has been notably throwing more changeups lately. Leon has a lot to do with that, I'm sure.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 18, 2018 19:51:50 GMT -5
I've looked at the by-catcher slash line splits for the 11 guys with more than 40 IP. Porcello has used Leon exclusively.
Every LHP except Pomeranz has been better, and often dramatically better, with Leon. But the RHP are mostly better with Vazquez, especially Kelly and Velazquez. (Barnes too; Hembrre's better with Leon and Kimbrel is neutral except for more homers with Vazquez, which may or may not be random). That's so interesting it might keep me awake.
Oh, and in the SSSS (the first S is for "silly') head-to-head matchups, Swihart beats Leon. That doesn't happen unless he's at least solid.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 18, 2018 20:02:47 GMT -5
Price is spotting his pitches very well. much credit to him.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 18, 2018 20:13:42 GMT -5
Glasnow looks like he's gonna end up a good pitcher, I think
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 18, 2018 20:16:45 GMT -5
Glasnow looks like he's gonna end up a good pitcher, I think Yeah he might be a pain in the butt sooner than later. I hate it when the Rays make solid moves.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 18, 2018 20:18:36 GMT -5
Brasier getting the 8th inning tonight.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 18, 2018 20:21:27 GMT -5
Glasnow looks like he's gonna end up a good pitcher, I think Yeah he might be a pain in the butt sooner than later. I hate it when the Rays make solid moves. Glasnow was a very highly ranked prospect when he came up. He's had some command issues and a few extra HRs but the stuff is clearly there. I thought the Rays made an excellent trade.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 18, 2018 20:24:45 GMT -5
Brasier keeps looking better and better each time out.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 18, 2018 20:26:56 GMT -5
Brasier:
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 18, 2018 20:27:27 GMT -5
how was that not overturned, yet the A's Astros play yesterday was somehow clear and convincing to overturn
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Post by p23w on Aug 18, 2018 20:34:34 GMT -5
Please, retire these guys with zero drama.
Thank you.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 18, 2018 20:36:01 GMT -5
how was that not overturned, yet the A's Astros play yesterday was somehow clear and convincing to overturn The umps have a better record than the review guys.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 18, 2018 20:40:59 GMT -5
another series win.....sweep tomorrow. The boys took advantage of the walks by their pitcher and pitched and played solid the rest of the way.
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