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Red Sox vs. Astros 2018 ALCS Gameday Thread
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 18, 2018 14:46:18 GMT -5
I don't know how the Sox are getting by tonight. 3-4 innings from Price. 3 innings from Eduardo. Multiple innings from Hembree or Workman. Maybe Brasier or Barnes is available, but I doubt it. Kimbrel is probably unavailable. I don't know the Sox win tonight. No clue. Kelly or Barnes is probably your closer and set up man tonight. Think about that. 6 by Price and 3 by Eddie. |
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 18, 2018 14:50:39 GMT -5
i'd rather see Joe Kelly in the ninth than Kimbrel right now. never, ever thought i would say that. i don't think there's more than a 1 in 3 chance they re-sign Kimbrel. He's been money up until recently. It's a bad stretch. Don't overreact. Martinez has has a tough postseason. No tar on him. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 14:52:57 GMT -5
I don't know how the Sox are getting by tonight. 3-4 innings from Price. 3 innings from Eduardo. Multiple innings from Hembree or Workman. Maybe Brasier or Barnes is available, but I doubt it. Kimbrel is probably unavailable. I don't know the Sox win tonight. No clue. Kelly or Barnes is probably your closer and set up man tonight. Think about that. I think it's Price, ERod and hold on to your hats Workman/Hembree. I know nobody wants to see either of those guys at all but I think we have no choice but to believe they can get the job done. Either one has to be able to throw a decent inning sooner or later. What a scary proposition. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 14:55:10 GMT -5
I don't know how the Sox are getting by tonight. 3-4 innings from Price. 3 innings from Eduardo. Multiple innings from Hembree or Workman. Maybe Brasier or Barnes is available, but I doubt it. Kimbrel is probably unavailable. I don't know the Sox win tonight. No clue. Kelly or Barnes is probably your closer and set up man tonight. Think about that. 6 by Price and 3 by Eddie. Price was warming for 2 innings yesterday lol. I think he already wasted two of those innings yesterday. |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2018 14:59:13 GMT -5
I don't know how the Sox are getting by tonight. 3-4 innings from Price. 3 innings from Eduardo. Multiple innings from Hembree or Workman. Maybe Brasier or Barnes is available, but I doubt it. Kimbrel is probably unavailable. I don't know the Sox win tonight. No clue. Kelly or Barnes is probably your closer and set up man tonight. Think about that. Yeah they probably ain't gonna. But that's okay, it's a free shot, and if they don't win they've got two shots in Fenway, one with Sale starting and another with Eovaldi going against Keuchel. But also you never know, because baseball.
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Post by wildsox on Oct 18, 2018 15:07:47 GMT -5
Lineup: Betts RF, Benintendi LF, Martinez DH, Bogaerts SS, Moreland 1B, Kinsler 2B, Devers 3B, Vázquez C, Bradley Jr. CF, Price LHP
I like it. Except I think Kinsler will get blown away by Verlander.
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Post by trajanacc on Oct 18, 2018 15:16:14 GMT -5
Vegas has the Red Sox at +170 tonight, which translates to an implied probability of about 37% to win. If you believe the betting market is the most accurate predictor of game outcomes (I do), then yes, we are definitely underdogs, but this is hardly a throw-away game or a game we "can't" win.
FWIW I believe we were something like +130 (43%) last night and +120 (45%) on Tuesday.
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Post by h11233 on Oct 18, 2018 15:27:23 GMT -5
FWIW I believe we were something like +130 (43%) last night and +120 (45%) on Tuesday. Why on earth were the Sox underdogs last night? Most wins in the MLB during the regular season, undefeated on the road in the playoffs so far, up 2-1 in this series, and on paper a pretty lopsided pitching matchup with Porcello vs a guy who hadn't pitched in weeks since being pulled early from his last start due to injury... |
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2018 15:28:20 GMT -5
I get your point that Porcello pitched poorly when they needed him to pitch well, but costing them the series? That's a bit over the top. He almost cost you the series, not because of how he pitched, which was really bad, but he gave you no length and nothing competitive. The state of your 3 best pitchers in Price, Kimbrel, and Sale are frankly HUGE question marks. Porcello's bad outing might have been too much to overcome. I don't hate Porcello, but that outing got to me. Price is going no more than 3 or 4 innings tonight is my guess due to fatigue. You have a strange way of looking at things. Porcello also helped save them and they're up 3-1. So I'm having a hard time figuring out how he almost blew the series. Worst case scenario with Porcello is that it's 2-2, but he was also huge in game 2 and pitched a scoreless 8th in a 1 run game. I mean that does take something out of a starting pitcher, which is why it's almost never done in the regular season. |
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2018 15:33:13 GMT -5
Lineup: Betts RF, Benintendi LF, Martinez DH, Bogaerts SS, Moreland 1B, Kinsler 2B, Devers 3B, Vázquez C, Bradley Jr. CF, Price LHP I like it. Except I think Kinsler will get blown away by Verlander. Holt is also pretty weak against upper 90s. He was 0-4 with 3 Ks against Verlander in game 1. |
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2018 15:34:43 GMT -5
FWIW I believe we were something like +130 (43%) last night and +120 (45%) on Tuesday. Why on earth were the Sox underdogs last night? Most wins in the MLB during the regular season, undefeated on the road in the playoffs so far, up 2-1 in this series, and on paper a pretty lopsided pitching matchup with Porcello vs a guy who hadn't pitched in weeks since being pulled early from his last start due to injury... It's basically 100% because the game was in Houston. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 15:37:25 GMT -5
He almost cost you the series, not because of how he pitched, which was really bad, but he gave you no length and nothing competitive. The state of your 3 best pitchers in Price, Kimbrel, and Sale are frankly HUGE question marks. Porcello's bad outing might have been too much to overcome. I don't hate Porcello, but that outing got to me. Price is going no more than 3 or 4 innings tonight is my guess due to fatigue. You have a strange way of looking at things. Porcello also helped save them and they're up 3-1. So I'm having a hard time figuring out how he almost blew the series. Worst case scenario with Porcello is that it's 2-2, but he was also huge in game 2 and pitched a scoreless 8th in a 1 run game. I mean that does take something out of a starting pitcher, which is why it's almost never done in the regular season. You got a plainly bad start from Porcello yesterday. He had nothing. If you're tied 2-2 with a tired Price and a sick Chris Sale who's recently lost weight, you would feel good about this scenario? At least now we are guaranteed a game 7 with Eovaldi starting now. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 18, 2018 15:42:24 GMT -5
In my professional informed opinion, which is neither informed or professional I think the plan is to get somewhere around 6 innings from Price and Erod. Maybe more, maybe less depending on their performance. If we have a huge lead or deficit I think we see Kelly/Hembree. If we have a 1-2 run lead then it’s all hands on deck to close this thing out.
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Post by wildsox on Oct 18, 2018 15:43:42 GMT -5
Lineup: Betts RF, Benintendi LF, Martinez DH, Bogaerts SS, Moreland 1B, Kinsler 2B, Devers 3B, Vázquez C, Bradley Jr. CF, Price LHP I like it. Except I think Kinsler will get blown away by Verlander. Holt is also pretty weak against upper 90s. He was 0-4 with 3 Ks against Verlander in game 1. Good Point. Kinsler is due to run into one too. I also feel really comfortable with Kinsler on defense, very smooth. |
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Post by h11233 on Oct 18, 2018 15:48:54 GMT -5
You have a strange way of looking at things. Porcello also helped save them and they're up 3-1. So I'm having a hard time figuring out how he almost blew the series. Worst case scenario with Porcello is that it's 2-2, but he was also huge in game 2 and pitched a scoreless 8th in a 1 run game. I mean that does take something out of a starting pitcher, which is why it's almost never done in the regular season. You got a plainly bad start from Porcello yesterday. He had nothing. If you're tied 2-2 with a tired Price and a sick Chris Sale who's recently lost weight, you would feel good about this scenario? At least now we are guaranteed a game 7 with Eovaldi starting now. Porcello didn't need to go out and win that game last night single handedly. He just needed to keep the Sox in the game. He did that. What Price and Sale do or don't do has nothing to do with Porcello. Add to all of that what he has contributed out of the pen, and Porcello has been a valuable asset. |
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Post by jmei on Oct 18, 2018 15:49:20 GMT -5
I think it's Price, ERod and hold on to your hats Workman/Hembree. I know nobody wants to see either of those guys at all but I think we have no choice but to believe they can get the job done. Either one has to be able to throw a decent inning sooner or later. What a scary proposition. The difference between a great reliever and a mediocre reliever is, what, 1.5 runs per nine innings? That's not all that big a gap. Would be nice if their better relievers were rested, but it's not like they have no shot to win. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 18, 2018 15:50:36 GMT -5
You have a strange way of looking at things. Porcello also helped save them and they're up 3-1. So I'm having a hard time figuring out how he almost blew the series. Worst case scenario with Porcello is that it's 2-2, but he was also huge in game 2 and pitched a scoreless 8th in a 1 run game. I mean that does take something out of a starting pitcher, which is why it's almost never done in the regular season. You got a plainly bad start from Porcello yesterday. He had nothing.If you're tied 2-2 with a tired Price and a sick Chris Sale who's recently lost weight, you would feel good about this scenario? At least now we are guaranteed a game 7 with Eovaldi starting now. Another way to put it it would be that he had just enough to give his team a chance. He certainly could have done much worse. |
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 18, 2018 15:58:50 GMT -5
I don't know how the Sox are getting by tonight. 3-4 innings from Price. 3 innings from Eduardo. Multiple innings from Hembree or Workman. Maybe Brasier or Barnes is available, but I doubt it. Kimbrel is probably unavailable. I don't know the Sox win tonight. No clue. Kelly or Barnes is probably your closer and set up man tonight. Think about that. If anyone is concerned with how they might win tonight, with respect, I don't think that person have really put together what kind of team this is. JBJ's recent power surge gives an inkling. Noone knows if they will win tonight or get blown out, but I like their chances any day of the week, and I wouldn't be surprised if the hero was someone no one is expecting. |
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 18, 2018 16:01:52 GMT -5
The stuff with Kimbrel is fascinating on so many levels. He has never been scored upon like this, yet he hasn't blown a save. He has done the job, yet folks are pissed at him. It is amazing.
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Post by trajanacc on Oct 18, 2018 16:05:04 GMT -5
Why on earth were the Sox underdogs last night? Most wins in the MLB during the regular season, undefeated on the road in the playoffs so far, up 2-1 in this series, and on paper a pretty lopsided pitching matchup with Porcello vs a guy who hadn't pitched in weeks since being pulled early from his last start due to injury... It's basically 100% because the game was in Houston.
Vegas probably had Houston rated (very) slightly higher than us going into the series. Home field obviously tilts those odds a little bit, as does the pitching matchup. I'm guessing based on the odds from other games that Vegas thought Morton vs. Porcello was relatively even.
It's always safe to assume, no matter how much you think you know, that Vegas knows more. Even if a line "looks crazy," usually it isn't, it's just that your opinion is out of alignment with the most likely outcome. There's a reason very few people in the world can make money betting on sports over the long haul. But I can assure you that Vegas will hardly ever shift a line dramatically based on factors drawn from a tiny sample size like "up 2-1 in the series" or "undefeated on the road in the playoffs," and they are going to look a lot deeper than W/L record were during the regular season. People who bet based on extreme recency/SSS are generally considered to be squares.
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Post by huskies15 on Oct 18, 2018 16:05:57 GMT -5
The Red Sox really need to put pressure on Verlander and Hinch early. Score a couple early and immediately make the gears in Hinch's brain start to grind. Houston's bullpen is pretty taxed as well. First two innings of this game will dictate everything in my opinion.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 16:07:57 GMT -5
What a scary proposition. The difference between a great reliever and a mediocre reliever is, what, 1.5 runs per nine innings? That's not all that big a gap. Would be nice if their better relievers were rested, but it's not like they have no shot to win. Just really heart attack stuff, they have a shot. They need to get to Verlander. |
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 18, 2018 16:07:59 GMT -5
Championship teams have a sense of urgency. Houston has it and Springer has it at a HOF level. That's one thing Xander probably never will have. And that's why I let him go in free agency someday. Because this is when it seemed darkest.....because they ended up coming back and winning game 2......because I can........ Let's get it done tonight !!! |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 16:09:23 GMT -5
You got a plainly bad start from Porcello yesterday. He had nothing.If you're tied 2-2 with a tired Price and a sick Chris Sale who's recently lost weight, you would feel good about this scenario? At least now we are guaranteed a game 7 with Eovaldi starting now. Another way to put it it would be that he had just enough to give his team a chance. He certainly could have done much worse. He was a 50/50 fan interference call of doing much worse. That could have gone either way. Porcello was junk and was fortunate at the same time. Thank God for Joe West too. |
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Oct 18, 2018 16:18:03 GMT -5
Can our hitting compensate for what would seem to be a shaky pitching matchup? Wouldn't be the first time big things came from unusual characters (JBJ). I'm thinking/hoping our pitching steps up a notch and locks this one down in a 5-3 win. Then again, I'm basing my retirement on winning the lottery, so there's that...
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