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Red Sox vs. Astros 2018 ALCS Gameday Thread
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Post by awall on Oct 18, 2018 11:58:23 GMT -5
I was really hoping to see some evidence that Verlander isn't very good on 4 days rest. I didn't
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 18, 2018 12:00:38 GMT -5
Tonight: David Price can redefine himself. If he can go deep and the Sox win? He wipes out the narrative. I actually have a good feeling (*ducking*). I’d say some day if people keep saying this they will be right but they won’t
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2018 12:12:25 GMT -5
Only six teams in history have come back from a 3-1 deficit without home field advantage. I've put the W / Pyth W in parentheses for each team.
The 1958 Yankees (92 / 98) over the Braves (92 / 92).
The 1968 Tigers (103 / 103) over the Cardinals (97 / 96)
The 1979 Pirates (98 / 95) over the Orioles (102 / 98). The 2003 Marlins (91 / 87) over the Cubs (88 / 85). The 2004 Red Sox (98 / 96) over the Yankees (101 / 89). The 2016 Cubs (103 / 107) over the Indians (94 / 91). It's rather amazing that the last two times, famous post-season droughts were broken, Theo Epstein was the architect of both winning teams, and Terry Francona managed first the winner and then the loser. What's even freakier is that the feat has only been accomplished five times by a team with home field advantage: 1985 Royals (91 / 86) over Cardinals (101 / 100)
1986 Red Sox (95 / 90) over Angels (92 / 91)
1996 Braves (96 / 94) over Cardinals (88 / 86)
2007 Red Sox (96 / 101) over Indians (96 / 91)
2012 Giants (94 / 88) over Cardinals (88 / 93)
Perhaps the freakiest thing is that either the Red Sox or Cardinals have been involved a majority of the time, and the Sox are 3-0 and the cardinals 0-4. If the Cardinals ever get a 3-1 lead in the WS over the Sox, we'll all know what to expect.
Of the 11 teams that did this, 6 had an edge in regular season wins and 2 were tied, while 7 had an edge in Pyth wins. So neither seems to matter more than the other.
Technically the Cardinals did take a 3 game to 1 lead in a World Series against the Red Sox once. The Red Sox did win Games 5 and 6, but Bob Gibson was too much in Game 7 and the 1967 Cardinals did win the World Series.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 18, 2018 12:21:52 GMT -5
Benintendi gets the save last night. What's amazing about how bad Kimbrel was is that he nonetheless had two of the most momentous defensive plays of the season backing him up. If Mookie doesn't make his play, there's a good chance we lose. If Beni doesn't make his play, we almost definitely lose. Meanwhile, that was one hell of a managing job by Cora. I'm not even sure if it was a great job or a crazy job, but it was one hell of a job. For all the griping about it, he was practically forced to stick with Porcello as long as he did. (Very funny to read over all the complaints about that. Like, did people not realize that taking Porcello out early in the game meant more Hembree or Workman late in the game?) I don't even know how I feel about going to Kimbrel for the two-inning save. But doing so, and sticking with it to the end, took some monstrous cojones. I was fine with everything up to starting with Kimbrell in the eighth. Given that Barnes looked good, that Kimbrell has not looked good at all, AND that Kimbrell is known to struggle outside of standard save situations, I thought it was a terrible decision at the time. And the way Kimbrel pitched, it was a terrible decision. Like there's just no two ways about it, Kimbrel was very bad and asking him to get six outs was a very bad thing to do. They were very lucky to get the outs that they did, and much more credit goes to the stellar outfield defense than to the wild, ineffective pitcher on the mound. The worst part is that because of the weird closer-mystique thing, Kimbrel comes out of this looking better somehow. Like every time he almost blows the game but doesn't (ie every time he has pitched in this postseason), it just reenforces the idea that he's got this magic ability to close out games. He's been so bad in the postseason so far, but it seems like because he's somehow gotten the saves, Cora now feels safe to ask even more from him. It reminds me of an old listener email question on the Effectively Wild podcast, which was essentially, if you had a closer who put the tying run on third every time he pitched in a save situation, but never actually blew the lead, how long would he keep his job? The answer that Ben and Sam arrived at, which I agree with, is never. And I guess if you really did have a magic reliever who could do that every time, you'd be right to keep using him as a closer. But magic isn't real, and Kimbrel has just been bad and lucky.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 18, 2018 12:31:15 GMT -5
Tonight: David Price can redefine himself. If he can go deep and the Sox win? He wipes out the narrative. I actually have a good feeling (*ducking*). Dude don't bait klostrophobic that hard, he's probably sound asleep on an Eduardo Nunez themed body pillow.
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Post by klostrophobic on Oct 18, 2018 12:35:02 GMT -5
Eduardo Nunez and David Price can no longer hurt me.
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Post by p23w on Oct 18, 2018 12:37:00 GMT -5
Here's the NY Times report on Altuve's shot to right: In the bottom of the first, Altuve lifted a long fly ball off Boston’s starter, Rick Porcello, with George Springer on first base. As the ball soared to deep right field, Betts jumped for the ball. His arm rose above the wall and his glove made contact with the hand of a fan who was also reaching for the ball, closing Betts’s glove and preventing him from making the catch.That's exactly what Betts was explaining to Bradley while the play was being reviewed. It's interesting. In Chicago they chase fans out of the city when stuff like that happens. In Houston? They'll probably erect a statue to the guy. The observation that is telling for me is that of the 5 people (four fans and Mookie) reaching for the ball only one was tracking it correctly. Mookie makes that catch. If any of the four fans had any hand/eye coordination they could have reached over Mookies' glove and caught the ball. Thank God Beltran was not in the bleachers. ps. I'm a fan of Justin Verlander, but not today.
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pd
Veteran
Posts: 327
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Post by pd on Oct 18, 2018 12:38:43 GMT -5
What's going to stink though is the Sox probably are not going to get a draft choice for losing Kimbrel to FA, or even worse he comes back on a QO. As of right now, there's no way I offer Kimbrel the QO. It's really weird how bad Dombrowski is at building bullpens.Kimbrel's collapse is DD's fault? Barnes and Brazier are awful? Yeah he does seem to have issues building pens but maybe it gets overplayed? In 2013 that was on the manager for not bringing in the lefty to face Papi. He got a lefty specifically to pitch to a guy like Papi and the manager didn't use him. Last year Farrell chose not to pitch Reed in game 4 in the 8th. Reed in his last reg season 24 games - he pitched 24.33 innings and only let up 5 runs. You can't blame him for Farrell being bad. The Sox got Reed specifically to be their "8th inning" guy and Farrell didn't use him. What amazes me is how similar the two halves of the ninth were. Leadoff hitter and mvp candidate up, two outs, bases loaded, line drive caught with a diving shouestring catch. What's the odds on tha?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 18, 2018 12:39:37 GMT -5
...But magic isn't real, and Kimbrel has just been bad and lucky. ...and getting outstanding fielding behind him. This will probably quell the demand that he be re-signed, at least for a little while. My wish has always been that Boston be as agnostic about its closer as Oakland is with theirs. Fat chance given the foolish mantras from the pop-media. Brasier has very good stuff and much better command than Kimbrel. I'll bet he could do a fine job taking on some of that role till Feltman shows up. How likely is that given the BS artists stoking the New England angst-machine?
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Post by awall on Oct 18, 2018 12:47:53 GMT -5
i'd rather see Joe Kelly in the ninth than Kimbrel right now. never, ever thought i would say that. i don't think there's more than a 1 in 3 chance they re-sign Kimbrel.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2018 12:57:16 GMT -5
What's going to stink though is the Sox probably are not going to get a draft choice for losing Kimbrel to FA, or even worse he comes back on a QO. As of right now, there's no way I offer Kimbrel the QO. It's really weird how bad Dombrowski is at building bullpens. Outside of Kimbrel and Workman, the Red Sox bullpen has given up 1 earned run this series with pretty atrocious defense.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 12:57:29 GMT -5
I don't know, the Sox shouldn't have stuck with Porcello so long.
I would have preferred anyone else. He was a 50/50 call from giving up 6 runs in 4 innings. Dreadful. Hembree or anyone else could have done that, probably better.
Rick Porcello almost cost you this series. You could have been tied 2-2 in the series if the homerun goes the other way, and maybe into extra innings, screwing this bullpen even more.
You have a short rested David Price who warmed up for 2 innings last night against Verlander tonight in game 5. You have a sick Chris Sale who wasn't eating solid foods as of last night in game 6. He almost cost you. Kimbrel has almost cost you all the time. Thank God for JBJ, that's all.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 18, 2018 13:04:10 GMT -5
What's going to stink though is the Sox probably are not going to get a draft choice for losing Kimbrel to FA, or even worse he comes back on a QO. As of right now, there's no way I offer Kimbrel the QO. It's really weird how bad Dombrowski is at building bullpens.Kimbrel's collapse is DD's fault? Barnes and Brazier are awful? Yeah he does seem to have issues building pens but maybe it gets overplayed? In 2013 that was on the manager for not bringing in the lefty to face Papi. He got a lefty specifically to pitch to a guy like Papi and the manager didn't use him. Last year Farrell chose not to pitch Reed in game 4 in the 8th. Reed in his last reg season 24 games - he pitched 24.33 innings and only let up 5 runs. You can't blame him for Farrell being bad. The Sox got Reed specifically to be their "8th inning" guy and Farrell didn't use him. I do think it's somewhat overplayed, but also it makes a certain amount of sense to me that Dombrowski's weakest area would be bullpen construction. He takes such a straightforward approach to team building: figure out your needs, find the best guy to address those needs, don't worry too much about the cost. I think that works quite well for hitters and pretty well for starters, but relievers are a different animal. They're just too volatile. Is Kimbrel's collapse Dombrowski's fault? No, not exactly, but by making a huge investment in Dombrowski, you expose yourself to the risk of having ineffective closer who's expensive and can't be easily removed from the role. Kimbrel is one example but Smith and Thornburg are the really damning ones. Paying a premium price for premium assets makes more sense when those assets are more likely to maintain their value, and relievers are the worst in that regard. So in that light, Dombrowski's history of building teams with great lineups, great rotations, and very questionable bullpens makes a lot of sense.
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 18, 2018 13:06:18 GMT -5
What's going to stink though is the Sox probably are not going to get a draft choice for losing Kimbrel to FA, or even worse he comes back on a QO. As of right now, there's no way I offer Kimbrel the QO. It's really weird how bad Dombrowski is at building bullpens.Kimbrel's collapse is DD's fault? Barnes and Brazier are awful? Yeah he does seem to have issues building pens but maybe it gets overplayed? In 2013 that was on the manager for not bringing in the lefty to face Papi. He got a lefty specifically to pitch to a guy like Papi and the manager didn't use him. Last year Farrell chose not to pitch Reed in game 4 in the 8th. Reed in his last reg season 24 games - he pitched 24.33 innings and only let up 5 runs. You can't blame him for Farrell being bad. The Sox got Reed specifically to be their "8th inning" guy and Farrell didn't use him. 1) Yes, he traded for him so yeah it is his fault. 2) Barnes was before Dombrowski 3) Brazier was catching lightning in a bottle. You wanna rely on catching lightning to build a good bullpen?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 18, 2018 13:13:38 GMT -5
Kimbrel's collapse is DD's fault? Barnes and Brazier are awful? Yeah he does seem to have issues building pens but maybe it gets overplayed? In 2013 that was on the manager for not bringing in the lefty to face Papi. He got a lefty specifically to pitch to a guy like Papi and the manager didn't use him. Last year Farrell chose not to pitch Reed in game 4 in the 8th. Reed in his last reg season 24 games - he pitched 24.33 innings and only let up 5 runs. You can't blame him for Farrell being bad. The Sox got Reed specifically to be their "8th inning" guy and Farrell didn't use him. 1) Yes, he traded for him so yeah it is his fault. 2) Barnes was before Dombrowski 3) Brazier was catching lightning in a bottle. You wanna rely on catching lightning to build a good bullpen?Actually yes. Again, the volatility of relievers means that when you pay full price for one who's already performing at a high level, the Dombrowski MO, you're almost never going to get get what you paid for. If you want a good bullpen, you have to be willing to buy low on guys. Otherwise you're always going to be investing more into your bullpen than you're getting out of it.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 18, 2018 13:17:45 GMT -5
Last nights game was everything that’s right with baseball and wrong with it wrapped up as one. Game started too late, was too long and way too choppy but man was it exciting.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2018 13:22:53 GMT -5
Here's the NY Times report on Altuve's shot to right: In the bottom of the first, Altuve lifted a long fly ball off Boston’s starter, Rick Porcello, with George Springer on first base. As the ball soared to deep right field, Betts jumped for the ball. His arm rose above the wall and his glove made contact with the hand of a fan who was also reaching for the ball, closing Betts’s glove and preventing him from making the catch.That's exactly what Betts was explaining to Bradley while the play was being reviewed. It's interesting. In Chicago they chase fans out of the city when stuff like that happens. In Houston? They'll probably erect a statue to the guy. The observation that is telling for me is that of the 5 people (four fans and Mookie) reaching for the ball only one was tracking it correctly. Mookie makes that catch. If any of the four fans had any hand/eye coordination they could have reached over Mookies' glove and caught the ball. Thank God Beltran was not in the bleachers. ps. I'm a fan of Justin Verlander, but not today. Yeah, and imagine if any of the fans were actually looking at the ball. Not one of them in the picture was.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Oct 18, 2018 13:38:29 GMT -5
Working at either 4 or 5 a.m. daily means I can rarely catch a game in its entirety - I fell asleep after the top of the first last night, and am pretty sad I missed such a crazy game. With tonight’s game possibly being the decider, I’m forcing myself to stay up and watch the entire thing, despite the likelihood of rendering myself groggy and useless all day tomorrow 😃 I’ll only go to bed early if it’s a blowout in either direction, but then I’d probably end up missing the Sox score 8 runs in the ninth to win.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 18, 2018 13:41:52 GMT -5
1) Yes, he traded for him so yeah it is his fault. 2) Barnes was before Dombrowski 3) Brazier was catching lightning in a bottle. You wanna rely on catching lightning to build a good bullpen?Actually yes. Again, the volatility of relievers means that when you pay full price for one who's already performing at a high level, the Dombrowski MO, you're almost never going to get get what you paid for. If you want a good bullpen, you have to be willing to buy low on guys. Otherwise you're always going to be investing more into your bullpen than you're getting out of it. I think we all know the best way is to develop your own relievers, yet that takes years. You can certainly make a case DD has been inefficient getting bullpen arms, yet like you pointed out its a crazy volatile market. Every team is inefficient! Your way though will almost never work. You will kill your team year after year doing that and force you to make deadline deals after deadline deals. Kimbrel has his ups and downs, but he was still our best reliever over the whole season. Heck even when he sucks he gives up 1 run in two innings, with some good D. Joe Kelly when he sucks could give up 5 runs in two innings. Lets give DD props for actually getting a lightning in a bottle guy, instead of saying you want a pen full of them!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2018 13:49:29 GMT -5
I don't know, the Sox shouldn't have stuck with Porcello so long. I would have preferred anyone else. He was a 50/50 call from giving up 6 runs in 4 innings. Dreadful. Hembree or anyone else could have done that, probably better. Rick Porcello almost cost you this series. You could have been tied 2-2 in the series if the homerun goes the other way, and maybe into extra innings, screwing this bullpen even more. You have a short rested David Price who warmed up for 2 innings last night against Verlander tonight in game 5. You have a sick Chris Sale who wasn't eating solid foods as of last night in game 6. He almost cost you. Kimbrel has almost cost you all the time. Thank God for JBJ, that's all. I get your point that Porcello pitched poorly when they needed him to pitch well, but costing them the series? That's a bit over the top. Frankly, I felt a huge sense of confidence when he came into Game 2 and fired off a dominant 8th inning. He was at his best and they needed him to be. That is hardly costing them. He stunk yesterday, I'm sure because of his yo-yoing back and forth between the pen and the rotation. It was bound to take its toll. Derek Lowe had the same thing happen to him. He pitched in relief in Game 1 ALDS 2003, took the loss in extra innings, started Game 3 and did a good job and then saved the Sox bacon in Game 5 in relief (K of Terrence Long to end it), but then he pitched as well in the ALCS. He was kind of gassed. Porcello looked gassed yesterday. As far as today goes, obviously I hope the Sox wrap things up. But if the mismatch presents itself as one might anticipate, I just hope that if the Sox don't wrap things up in Houston, at least I hope they lose in a way where they can stay away from Barnes, Brasier, and even Kimbrel (I think we need the day off from him more than he needs the day off!). So in anticipation of a probable loss tonight, because it is 2018, David Price will probably pitch 8 no-hit innings and then Kimbrel will pitch a perfect 9th to nail the game down! Hah!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 13:54:58 GMT -5
I don't know, the Sox shouldn't have stuck with Porcello so long. I would have preferred anyone else. He was a 50/50 call from giving up 6 runs in 4 innings. Dreadful. Hembree or anyone else could have done that, probably better. Rick Porcello almost cost you this series. You could have been tied 2-2 in the series if the homerun goes the other way, and maybe into extra innings, screwing this bullpen even more. You have a short rested David Price who warmed up for 2 innings last night against Verlander tonight in game 5. You have a sick Chris Sale who wasn't eating solid foods as of last night in game 6. He almost cost you. Kimbrel has almost cost you all the time. Thank God for JBJ, that's all. I get your point that Porcello pitched poorly when they needed him to pitch well, but costing them the series? That's a bit over the top. He almost cost you the series, not because of how he pitched, which was really bad, but he gave you no length and nothing competitive. The state of your 3 best pitchers in Price, Kimbrel, and Sale are frankly HUGE question marks. Porcello's bad outing might have been too much to overcome. I don't hate Porcello, but that outing got to me. Price is going no more than 3 or 4 innings tonight is my guess due to fatigue.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 18, 2018 14:17:23 GMT -5
1) Yes, he traded for him so yeah it is his fault. Kimbrel has been (or was) pretty good overall in his stint as a Red Sox.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2018 14:30:15 GMT -5
Last nights game was everything that’s right with baseball and wrong with it wrapped up as one. Game started too late, was too long and way too choppy but man was it exciting. The food was great but the portions were too large?
(Admittedly, I wouldn't have minded if all of that excitement had happened before 1am.)
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 14:40:08 GMT -5
I don't know how the Sox are getting by tonight. 3-4 innings from Price. 3 innings from Eduardo. Multiple innings from Hembree or Workman. Maybe Brasier or Barnes is available, but I doubt it. Kimbrel is probably unavailable.
I don't know the Sox win tonight. No clue. Kelly or Barnes is probably your closer and set up man tonight. Think about that.
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Post by wildsox on Oct 18, 2018 14:46:04 GMT -5
I don't know how the Sox are getting by tonight. 3-4 innings from Price. 3 innings from Eduardo. Multiple innings from Hembree or Workman. Maybe Brasier or Barnes is available, but I doubt it. Kimbrel is probably unavailable. I don't know the Sox win tonight. No clue. Kelly or Barnes is probably your closer and set up man tonight. Think about that. I think it's Price, ERod and hold on to your hats Workman/Hembree. I know nobody wants to see either of those guys at all but I think we have no choice but to believe they can get the job done. Either one has to be able to throw a decent inning sooner or later.
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