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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 18, 2018 20:18:47 GMT -5
Wouldn't it be great if Price got the win tonight, considering all ramifications? That would secure his legacy in beantown.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 18, 2018 20:19:20 GMT -5
What the hell is Anderson talking about? Verlander threw one extra pitch as ther was ONLY 1 out. He got the next guy out. Therefore he wouldn't have faced the other two guys. |
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Post by Guidas on Oct 18, 2018 20:21:16 GMT -5
Houston’s going to get real swing happy fast if Sox build this lead.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 18, 2018 20:23:15 GMT -5
Pitch 3 was absolutely a strike so Sox did catch a break.BUT pitch 2 which was called a strike was actually a ball incorrectly called a strike
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 18, 2018 20:23:19 GMT -5
Fun with Win Probability on Benny's catch: If he plays it safe and lets it fall in for a hit, one run probably scores and the Sox have a 72% chance of winning with an average hitter and pitcher up. With a gassed and down-melting Kimbrel facing Springer (HR, 2B, 1B, BB, 5-4), it's probably much higher. Given that and the accuracy of Benny's arm, I think they hold Correa at 2B.
If he dives and fails to make the catch, he probably keeps the ball in front of him and two runs score. Sox win probability is 33%, and Price would be facing Springer, so that's close enough. OTOH, there's, what, a 1 in 3 chance the ball gets by him and they lose. (And using Price reduces your odds of winning tonight, but I think I have to leave that out of the calculation!) Call it a 50% chance of winning (instead of 72%) if you play it safe and let the game go to 1 run. But since Kimbrel has only retired 4 of 10 batters faced, we'll keep in mind hat it might be lower.
Rounding down a bit, there's a 20% chance of winning if you try and make the catch and fail, and a 100% chance of winning if you succeed. If you think your odds of catching the ball are 50%, that gives you a 60% chance of winning the game if you go for it.
I think the odds of making the catch in Benny's mind were considerably higher than 50%. I also think that players have an instinctive sense of these win probabilities, unless they're Tony Kemp. And I think that the combination of the confidence and the knowledge that a gamble here is almost a no-brainer is what makes the catch happen.
And I think that Benny dived for the ball because he realized that if he didn't end the game right there the Sox were almost certain to lose it, either with Houston getting another hit off a tiring Kimbrel or, if he somehow got the final out, that their remaining bullpen was massively superior to whoever the Sox could throw out there. It was either win now or have a very low probability of winning at all. |
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Post by Guidas on Oct 18, 2018 20:24:56 GMT -5
Wouldn't it be great if Price got the win tonight, considering all ramifications? That would secure his legacy in beantown. 2013 John Lackey-like. |
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 18, 2018 20:28:58 GMT -5
Wouldn't it be great if Price got the win tonight, considering all ramifications? That would secure his legacy in beantown. 2013 John Lackey-like. Lackey vs verlander. 1-0 on a Napoli moonshot one of the longest hrs I’ve ever seen |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 18, 2018 20:29:29 GMT -5
Vasquez is clearly our best catcher currently. All around. He's probably relatively healthy also. Major plus for a catcher in the playoffs.
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Post by Coreno on Oct 18, 2018 20:29:51 GMT -5
It would be great if I never had to hear Anderson say Vos-quez again.
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Post by manfred on Oct 18, 2018 20:30:43 GMT -5
Are we still doing “urgency”?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 18, 2018 20:30:46 GMT -5
60 pitchers for Verlander. We are making him work.
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cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,326 
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Post by cutz on Oct 18, 2018 20:31:14 GMT -5
What the hell is Anderson talking about? Verlander threw one extra pitch as ther was ONLY 1 out. He got the next guy out. Therefore he wouldn't have faced the other two guys. Head up my ass>LOL |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 18, 2018 20:31:50 GMT -5
Are we still doing “urgency”? Not me. The team clearly learned what time of year the games are in after the first game. |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 18, 2018 20:34:05 GMT -5
Epic series so far. It only seems to get better every game!
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Post by wildsox on Oct 18, 2018 20:34:06 GMT -5
What are these announcers even talking about? Saying we traded Travis Shaw to make room for Devers. Devers was still in A ball when Shaw was traded. We had Sandoval as our 3B then
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Post by kevfc89 on Oct 18, 2018 20:36:30 GMT -5
Price dotting at 95!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 20:36:30 GMT -5
GET EM PRICE.
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cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,326
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Post by cutz on Oct 18, 2018 20:37:08 GMT -5
Man, Price with a 95 MPH up & inside for a swing & miss VS. Altuve
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2018 20:38:09 GMT -5
Excuse me but Price might be putting his legacy in the playoffs to bed. Go get this done Sox on a night they didn't expect to win with JV on the mound.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 20:40:16 GMT -5
This is Vintage Cy Young David Price we are seeing tonight of 5 years ago.
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cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,326
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Post by cutz on Oct 18, 2018 20:40:18 GMT -5
Nice change-up
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Post by Guidas on Oct 18, 2018 20:40:30 GMT -5
Price hitting 96, change coming in at 86. That’s brutally delicious.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 18, 2018 20:40:43 GMT -5
His change of speed has been great all game.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 18, 2018 20:42:31 GMT -5
Have they turned the sound down on the crowd? Price has taken the crowd completely out of the game. Amazing.
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Post by bluechip on Oct 18, 2018 20:45:56 GMT -5
The way gurriel battled you knew he’d get on.
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