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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 11, 2018 17:44:57 GMT -5
Maybe they get something back for him? They would be really dumb to put themselves in that position which is why I don't believe any of it. A trade will only be made if they're blown away with an offer. They are not in a position where they have to reduce salary because they knew damn well what the plan was from the beginning. It would have made way more sense to not sign Eovaldi and instead spend that salary on relief pitchers. I think all of this could be wrong. -Maybe the Sox are higher in the next 4 years on Eovaldi versus one year of Porcello. -A trade can be made if there's value. -They are in fact in a possible position where they need to clear room here. Agree to disagree past this point.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 11, 2018 17:55:34 GMT -5
I'm all for wishful thinking, but if the options are one year 9 million and 3 years like 25 million it seems rather easy what you pick. It's not the one year deal. If Kelly takes one year 9 million he needs a new agent. Josh Donaldson, who just opted for $23M instead of $58M projected*, says hi.
$9.5M instead of $24M would be the exact same ratio.
It's not like after the one year, they force you to retire.
* $58M is the mean FG crowdsource. Andrew McCutchen just signed for $50M versus $43.2M. But if Donaldson go offers that were inflated as much, it just meant that he took less of a bonus to sign for just 1 year.
Yeah Joe Kelly's love for the Sox completely trumps 16 million more potential dollars (in your scenario) all for an extra 1.5 million AAV dollars more on a one year deal (in your scenario). Relievers aren't volatile at all year to year, especially injury wise. Kelly will totally get better next year when he's been Jekyll and Hyde his whole career. This is all givens and not a complete wish here. This is totally the best decision for Joe Kelly.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 11, 2018 18:10:58 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 11, 2018 18:59:15 GMT -5
Whenever you can give up a 5 WAR shortstop for salary relief to sign relievers, you have to take that opportunity. Nightengale’s report checks out. I saw no mention for Xander or Bradley, but Porcello's name seems to be more floated around. He tweets a lot...
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 11, 2018 19:01:04 GMT -5
He’s also getting info from rival executives so not sure it means much.
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Post by Canseco on Dec 11, 2018 19:12:11 GMT -5
Oooof... I am not at all comfortable with potentially moving two of our sturdiest, most reliably available players in Porcello and Bradley. Bogaerts, on the other hand, is a guy for whom we could get a boat load while simultaneously improving defense and clearing long term salary for Betts and others.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 11, 2018 19:15:52 GMT -5
Damn....how we gonna have 50 page threads where folks are clamoring that DD doesn't know how to run a club ?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!?!?
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Post by telson13 on Dec 11, 2018 22:51:54 GMT -5
Thank you. There’s my dad joke allotment for the month.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 11, 2018 22:59:50 GMT -5
I saw no mention for Xander or Bradley, but Porcello's name seems to be more floated around. Not a fan of getting rid of the best innings eater we have unless the return was a very good prospect, which I doubt will be the case. Given that they can spend in 2019 as long as they get under, they could add salary relief. Throwing in $10-15M gets them to 50 FV. I still say get Corey Ray from Milwaukee and flip him with Dalbec or Chavis and maybe a 40 FV guy for Jon Gray. CO could use both a CF and a potential replacement for Arenado. Edit: I’m presuming the acquiring team acknowledges value from the QO comp. Porcello’s projected for about 2.5-3 wins, or 22.5-27 million at $9M per win. So figure 25-30M with the excess value of the comp pick. If they got several interested parties, they *might* get a little more.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 11, 2018 23:01:30 GMT -5
Jon Morosi Verified account @jonmorosi
#Mets and #RedSox showing continued interest in Adam Ottavino, sources say. @mlb @mlbnetwork
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Post by patford on Dec 12, 2018 13:11:23 GMT -5
There has been no chatter I have heard concerning Kimbrel. It's starting to look like the Sox 17.9 qualifying offer is going to stick.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2018 13:14:58 GMT -5
There has been no chatter I have heard concerning Kimbrel. It's starting to look like the Sox 17.9 qualifying offer is going to stick. The QO was already refused and is no longer a choice for Kimbrel. I'd take him back for one year though if he were willing. There are still 2.5 months until spring training.
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Post by patford on Dec 12, 2018 14:00:00 GMT -5
There has been no chatter I have heard concerning Kimbrel. It's starting to look like the Sox 17.9 qualifying offer is going to stick. The QO was already refused and is no longer a choice for Kimbrel. I'd take him back for one year though if he were willing. There are still 2.5 months until spring training. I was assuming the offer is what the Sox would be willing to pay him, but you're right it's not binding and if there is minimal interest and low ball offers from other teams he will have to end up taking less.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2018 14:25:43 GMT -5
The QO was already refused and is no longer a choice for Kimbrel. I'd take him back for one year though if he were willing. There are still 2.5 months until spring training. I was assuming the offer is what the Sox would be willing to pay him, but you're right it's not binding and if there is minimal interest and low ball offers from other teams he will have to end up taking less. It's also possible his agent has offers from other teams and Kimbrel is waiting until after the holidays to do the city touring thing. He won't get what his agent is putting out there, but he's not going to have to settle for a small contract. I can see him getting 4 years $60 million somewhere if not higher. Either way he's not coming back to the Red Sox.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 12, 2018 20:02:37 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 12, 2018 20:27:22 GMT -5
Bomb drop. The Sox are looking for bargains in the relief market because they don't want to spend on a bigger AAV reliever now.
So much for all the high AAV theories for one year deals people have been throwing around here.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 12, 2018 20:39:05 GMT -5
So all of a sudden, the bullpen looks like a huge concern to at least start the year if the Sox want to completely cheap out here. It could be fixed once Lakins and/or Feltman is up.
The best hope is that someone actually good takes a really team friendly deal here.
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Post by libertine on Dec 12, 2018 20:45:37 GMT -5
Tbf the pen was supposedly the major concern heading into last postseason. I would love to get Kelly back but unfortunately I have a feeling someone out there will sign him to be their closer based on what he did in October.
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Post by soxfan50 on Dec 12, 2018 22:27:39 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Dec 12, 2018 23:26:18 GMT -5
Tbf the pen was supposedly the major concern heading into last postseason. I would love to get Kelly back but unfortunately I have a feeling someone out there will sign him to be their closer based on what he did in October. So you would feel better with joe Kelly coming back? Mister 4.39 era he was one of the worse bullpen guys during the regular season he almost did not make the playoff roster. Id rather see the sox take a chance with new guys then paying him 7+. And it seems so far dd feels the same way with all the arms he is adding.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 12, 2018 23:26:37 GMT -5
I’ll be shocked if he does better than 5/80, and I think he’s probably going to land right around Eovaldi country, maybe 4/64. If he’d repeated 2017 in 2018, and done a Joe Kelly in the postseason, I could *maybe*, squinting, see 6/100. But he has zero chance at that unless somebody gets *really* stupid.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 12, 2018 23:48:16 GMT -5
So all of a sudden, the bullpen looks like a huge concern to at least start the year if the Sox want to completely cheap out here. It could be fixed once Lakins and/or Feltman is up. The best hope is that someone actually good takes a really team friendly deal here. I don’t see it that way. I still think Soria is a fantastic fit. He’s tremendous at suppressing EV, steady, and old enough without the top-flight caché that he could sign a 2/19 or so deal. I don’t think that AAV would be prohibitive (vs, say, 2/26 for Robertson). I also think that Britton might be enticed to sign in the 3/30 range, though I have no handle on the market RN. Kelly at 3/24, I’d be OK with too. Lakins is essentially MLB-ready...he was excellent in AAA in 10G (with 16.1 IP, which is fantastic to see...he’s a true multi-inning guy). He might take a month or two, but I could see him catching on after ST. The Sox still have Thornburg, Workman, and Hembree to sort out as far as roles go, too. And I’m very confident in Barnes, and fairly confident in Brasier. They obviously need a quality arm, could use two even, but I don’t think it’s as pressing as you say. If they’re really going to try to reduce starter workload to start the year, I could see a guy like Eovaldi or Price or Sale serving as the de facto 8th/9th inning guy (matched to between-start throwing days) semi-regularly. They might be going only 5-6 innings when they start, or using Johnson as the 6th starter in a temporary 6-man. Hell, they could use Johnson or Velasquez as long openers and piggyback other starters. I think they’ll get creative, and Cora is obviously very adaptable (as are a lot of the players). Maybe the top 3 starters have 2-3 week stretches during the first 6-8 weeks where they’re the high-leverage guy, and Johnson takes their spot in the rotation to reduce early season workload...each of them obviously showed the ability to do so during the postseason. I think there are just so many options because of SP depth, that they can fill gaps in a kind of reverse-TB strategy until their internal reinforcements in Lakins and Feltman arrive.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 13, 2018 0:11:07 GMT -5
So many options available DD seems to be taking a different approach. Not just going after his guy and paying top dollar or heck even slightly overpaying. Sit back and wait. You'll get one to two very good pitchers at what you want to spend.
Kimbrell agent picked a horrible time to ask for 6 years 100 million.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 13, 2018 3:09:15 GMT -5
Evan Drellich Verified account evandrellichDon’t count the Red Sox out on Craig Kimbrel yet. Agents who represent high-leverage relievers that the Red Sox are interested in have been told by the team that the Red Sox are waiting on Kimbrel. Chris Cotillo Verified account @chriscotillo More Chris Cotillo Retweeted Ken Rosenthal It's a three-year deal for Kelly, per @jeffpassan. Southern California native goes home. Red Sox had interest but it was always likely he'd go elsewhere.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 13, 2018 3:15:42 GMT -5
The reliever market might get expensive:
HardballTalk @hardballtalk
Report: Mets sign Jeurys Familia to three-year, $30 million contract
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