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Post by Legion of Bloom on Dec 13, 2018 3:18:14 GMT -5
You will be missed, Jim Buchanan.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 13, 2018 3:19:09 GMT -5
Three years 25 million for Joe Kelly. The wishful thinking from Sox fans is over that somehow Kelly takes 15 million less to stay for some odd reason.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 13, 2018 3:33:02 GMT -5
The reliever market might get expensive: HardballTalk @hardballtalk Report: Mets sign Jeurys Familia to three-year, $30 million contract Hopefully this takes the Mets out of Ottavino sweepstakes.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 13, 2018 3:41:05 GMT -5
The reliever market might get expensive: HardballTalk @hardballtalk Report: Mets sign Jeurys Familia to three-year, $30 million contract Hopefully this takes the Mets out of Ottavino sweepstakes. It should, they already have Diaz to close.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2018 10:04:35 GMT -5
Now I'm a little confused about the Sox' intentions.
If they thought Kelly was truly "fixed" wouldn't 25 million over 3 years be a reasonable offer to make?
Or perhaps Kelly was just saying what we wanted to hear when he said that he basically wanted to be a Sox for life?
So did the Sox not make a competitive offer or did it simply not matter?
Because if they did make a competitive offer, we can chalk it up to Kelly really didn't mean what he was saying and the Sox go on to try to snare the next best reliever.
Or did the Sox not make a competitive offer? If so was it because they don't trust those fixes to hold over the long-term? Or was it because they're looking at their financial situation and decided that they're too high already and it will be extremely difficult to dip under the luxury tax limit in 2020 if they keep spending $7 - $10 million/year on relievers. And if that's the case will the Sox look for bargain basement bullpen help and/or hope that they get meaningful contributions from guys like Poyner, Lakins, and from Hernandez and Feltman down the road this year? Or are they laying back figuring that if they need a bullpen closer/arm they'll simply wait to rent a reliever and pay a pro-rated cost for the remainder of the year?
That would actually make sense. So if it does, what's this stuff about waiting on Kimbrel? I'd think they're waiting on Kimbrel to sign elsewhere so the reliever Russian roulette thing happens and the Sox can find whoever is left standing.
Can't imagine the Sox are willing to spend 6 years $100 million that Kimbrel seems to want? Can't see them giving him $15 - $17 million over the next 3 or 4 years either?
I'm guessing the Sox don't spend more than $5 on a reliever this offseason and they'll wait until July to rent a closer.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 13, 2018 15:02:30 GMT -5
Now I'm a little confused about the Sox' intentions. If they thought Kelly was truly "fixed" wouldn't 25 million over 3 years be a reasonable offer to make? Or perhaps Kelly was just saying what we wanted to hear when he said that he basically wanted to be a Sox for life? So did the Sox not make a competitive offer or did it simply not matter? Because if they did make a competitive offer, we can chalk it up to Kelly really didn't mean what he was saying and the Sox go on to try to snare the next best reliever. Or did the Sox not make a competitive offer? If so was it because they don't trust those fixes to hold over the long-term? Or was it because they're looking at their financial situation and decided that they're too high already and it will be extremely difficult to dip under the luxury tax limit in 2020 if they keep spending $7 - $10 million/year on relievers. And if that's the case will the Sox look for bargain basement bullpen help and/or hope that they get meaningful contributions from guys like Poyner, Lakins, and from Hernandez and Feltman down the road this year? Or are they laying back figuring that if they need a bullpen closer/arm they'll simply wait to rent a reliever and pay a pro-rated cost for the remainder of the year? That would actually make sense. So if it does, what's this stuff about waiting on Kimbrel? I'd think they're waiting on Kimbrel to sign elsewhere so the reliever Russian roulette thing happens and the Sox can find whoever is left standing. Can't imagine the Sox are willing to spend 6 years $100 million that Kimbrel seems to want? Can't see them giving him $15 - $17 million over the next 3 or 4 years either? I'm guessing the Sox don't spend more than $5 on a reliever this offseason and they'll wait until July to rent a closer. I'm hoping it means they can only afford one long-term contract, which I always thought was likely, and that they are close to a deal with Robertson or Ottavino. It's my option 2 from my "big picture" post a couple of pages back:
2) Sign Robertson / Ottavino / Kelly and call it quits. Hembree would be seeing a lot of action in the 7th and later, as the 4th best guy in the pan, so you want to find a better internal option. Thornburg and Brewer would be the immediate options, Lakins would be in the mix by mid-season, Feltman probably a bit later, and Hernandez in September. They might well go this route if their spreadsheet tells them that two long-terms contracts makes no sense and they can't swing a one-year deal with anyone.
I think I later said that they'll probably wait till the market clears up and see if they can sign anther guy they like. That would be a 1-year deal for a guy with upside. If they don't think anyone projects to be better than Workman, they pass.
Hembree, Workman, and Thornburg or Brewer is not a great 4 through 6 in the pen unless Thornburg or Brewer step up. But between Lakins and Feltman, that's eventually for possibilities to push Hembree back to the 5th spot where he belongs. Like I say, finding a second FA that's substantially better than Workman would be a help. But it's not a necessity.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 13, 2018 15:15:31 GMT -5
Josh Donaldson, who just opted for $23M instead of $58M projected*, says hi.
$9.5M instead of $24M would be the exact same ratio.
It's not like after the one year, they force you to retire.
* $58M is the mean FG crowdsource. Andrew McCutchen just signed for $50M versus $43.2M. But if Donaldson go offers that were inflated as much, it just meant that he took less of a bonus to sign for just 1 year.
For me couple of major difference Donaldson's value is at like an all-time low. Kelly's value might be at an all-time high after the postseason. All Donaldson needs to do is stay healthy and be the player he has always been. Bam he'll get a huge offer. Rather safe bet, betting on himself. Kelly would need to become a new pitcher that isn't a safe bet. The chances he can impressive people more than he did in the postseason are very low. He's never been able to do that over a full season. Guys take pillow contracts and bet on themselves all the time when their value is low, they almost never do it when its high. Nevermind Donaldson has made 60 million in his career he can afford to gamble as with this deal his career earnings are over 80 million. Joe Kelly has made a little over 10 million, this contract is about setting him up for life. That's exactly the sort of good counter-argument that I relish. The only thing I disagree with is that I think he has a very real chance of impressing people even more, by sustaining his good version much more consistently (matching other relievers, rather than being a poster child for Jekyll and Hyde. That argument is based on his no longer throwing a slower curve; I think that using two different arm speeds has to make your mechanics less consistent.) But it is true that October raised his projection and put his value at an all-time high. That it might go even higher if he stays becomes more consistent is why he got the contract he did.
The other thing I forgot is that he was always regarded as ticketed back to the West Coast. I believe he was sincere about loving the idea of returning here--but only as a backup plan to pitching for the Dogers in SoCal.
In the meantime, I'm glad I played around with his contract numbers. It demonstrates that there's a 1-year deal that makes sense for any guy who is perceived as having had a down season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 13, 2018 15:36:10 GMT -5
So all of a sudden, the bullpen looks like a huge concern to at least start the year if the Sox want to completely cheap out here. It could be fixed once Lakins and/or Feltman is up. The best hope is that someone actually good takes a really team friendly deal here. I don’t see it that way. I still think Soria is a fantastic fit. He’s tremendous at suppressing EV, steady, and old enough without the top-flight caché that he could sign a 2/19 or so deal. I don’t think that AAV would be prohibitive (vs, say, 2/26 for Robertson). I also think that Britton might be enticed to sign in the 3/30 range, though I have no handle on the market RN. Kelly at 3/24, I’d be OK with too. Lakins is essentially MLB-ready...he was excellent in AAA in 10G (with 16.1 IP, which is fantastic to see...he’s a true multi-inning guy). He might take a month or two, but I could see him catching on after ST. The Sox still have Thornburg, Workman, and Hembree to sort out as far as roles go, too. And I’m very confident in Barnes, and fairly confident in Brasier. They obviously need a quality arm, could use two even, but I don’t think it’s as pressing as you say. If they’re really going to try to reduce starter workload to start the year, I could see a guy like Eovaldi or Price or Sale serving as the de facto 8th/9th inning guy (matched to between-start throwing days) semi-regularly. They might be going only 5-6 innings when they start, or using Johnson as the 6th starter in a temporary 6-man. Hell, they could use Johnson or Velasquez as long openers and piggyback other starters. I think they’ll get creative, and Cora is obviously very adaptable (as are a lot of the players). Maybe the top 3 starters have 2-3 week stretches during the first 6-8 weeks where they’re the high-leverage guy, and Johnson takes their spot in the rotation to reduce early season workload...each of them obviously showed the ability to do so during the postseason. I think there are just so many options because of SP depth, that they can fill gaps in a kind of reverse-TB strategy until their internal reinforcements in Lakins and Feltman arrive. The thing I don't like about Soria is that he feasts on bad hitters and is not particularly good against good ones. His splits by batting-order position are consistent year after year, especially after his first three seasons, which is rarely the case with relievers given their small sample sizes.
This is Roberston's career OPS allowed, followed by Soria, for hitters 1-2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-9 (non-P).
599 / 609 673 / 787 617 / 586 564 / 523
Robertson has a 109 point best-vs-worst split; Soria is 264.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 13, 2018 16:06:51 GMT -5
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Post by soxfan50 on Dec 13, 2018 16:13:33 GMT -5
I bet my life that DD is negotiating as we post with some pricier free agent relief pitchers.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 13, 2018 16:16:15 GMT -5
Honestly, just go get Herrera on a one year 5 million dollar deal and call it a offseason.
I want Lakins to break spring training. The bullpen is potentially going to have a lot of warts if the Sox cheap out here. They need all the help they can get in the beginning of the season.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 13, 2018 16:38:18 GMT -5
Report after report, Red Sox won't spend big. Yet Agents for relievers keep saying the Red Sox are showing interest yet waiting on Kimbrel. So either this is a new DD going after a bargain or he's waiting on Kimbrel. Trying to distance himself from him and drive down his price.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 13, 2018 16:40:53 GMT -5
Honestly, just go get Herrera on a one year 5 million dollar deal and call it a offseason. I want Lakins to break spring training. The bullpen is potentially going to have a lot of warts if the Sox cheap out here. They need all the help they can get in the beginning of the season. Hererra and/or Soria + Barnes, Brasier, Thornburg, Hembree, Lakins, Workman, Brewer, Wright, Johnson, Velasquez is a strong, deep, bullpen combining power and mult-inning arms to start the season. More in the minors. Why worry?!?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2018 16:44:51 GMT -5
I bet my life that DD is negotiating as we post with some pricier free agent relief pitchers. You might be surprised. I figured they'd get a pricier relief pitcher - not Kimbrel pricy, but they'd get somebody, probably Robertson or Ottavino. But now I doubt that they get a pricey relief pitcher. They're up around 235 million and I doubt they want to surpass 246 million and pay the highest taxes again. If they are using 246 as a cap, then it's hard to see them spending more money that Kelly got. I'm sure they want some wiggle room for July acquisitions. I'd think they wouldn't spend more than $5 million on a reliever. They're going to wait to see who goes off the board and see who's remaining waiting for a job so forget names like Miller or Britton. That's only one concern. The bigger one is that I doubt the Sox want to put more money on the books for 2020. They want to get under the 208 million mark so they can reset the luxury tax figure. If they're at 236 million now, come 2020 you figure about 50 million or so comes off the books as Pearce/Moreland would be gone, Nunez would be gone, Porcello would be gone, and they'd be off the hook for most of Sandoval's deal, but you have to figure arbitration raises for guys like Betts, JBJ if he's not dealt by then, E-Rod and some others. So perhaps they're near $195 million. And then if they re-sign Sale or Bogaerts or Martinez, you figure more $ added to the payroll. They'd be kind of close to the line. Add a pricy reliever and they'd threaten to go over? I think the Sox will shop at the bargain bin for one reliever, hope that Thornburg is more like his old self, try Barnes as the closer or the new acquisition can be, hope that guys like Poyner and Larkin can help immediately, and then come July rent a closer or reliever and/or see where Hernandez and Feltman are at.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 13, 2018 16:45:09 GMT -5
Honestly, just go get Herrera on a one year 5 million dollar deal and call it a offseason. I want Lakins to break spring training. The bullpen is potentially going to have a lot of warts if the Sox cheap out here. They need all the help they can get in the beginning of the season. Hererra and/or Soria + Barnes, Brasier, Thornburg, Hembree, Lakins, Workman, Brewer, Wright, Johnson, Velasquez is a strong, deep, bullpen combining power and mult-inning arms to start the season. More in the minors. Why worry?!? Because that's arguably the third best bullpen in the division.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2018 16:50:06 GMT -5
Honestly, just go get Herrera on a one year 5 million dollar deal and call it a offseason. I want Lakins to break spring training. The bullpen is potentially going to have a lot of warts if the Sox cheap out here. They need all the help they can get in the beginning of the season. Hererra and/or Soria + Barnes, Brasier, Thornburg, Hembree, Lakins, Workman, Brewer, Wright, Johnson, Velasquez is a strong, deep, bullpen combining power and mult-inning arms to start the season. More in the minors. Why worry?!? No offense Gerry but when you talk about our players it's almost like you recite their names as if they're all-stars and HOFers. There are some fungible/question marks in that list of names you rattled off. Herrera is coming off an injury as is Wright and Thornburg. They are all big question marks. Hembree and Workman are ok, but nothing special. Same with Johnson and Velazquez who are more of starting pitching depth. Brasier, you hope is as good as he was last season. Can Barnes be the closer if need be? Is Brewer more than a AAAA pitcher? I see that list and see question marks. I don't see a pen that's necessarily better than other bullpens from other teams. But with pens who knows? The pen had a ton of question marks and suddenly became nails in the post-season.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 13, 2018 17:22:29 GMT -5
I'm going to say DD is trying for an Oscar this year. All this crap about not wanting to go over this mark, not signing this guy or trading these guys to clear salary. They said they didn't want to go over last year. I 100% believe they don't want to go over, doesn't mean they won't. It makes zero sense not to go over and frankly there aren't a lot of ways they don't go over. Even if they add no one, which just won't happen. Mid-season trades and September call ups could send them over. This just seems like a ploy to use in free agency. We don't have much money, so here's 5 million not 9 million. Kimbrel we want you back, yet you take us over the high mark. We don't want to do that, so we can only offer you 15 million type crap.
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Post by p23w on Dec 13, 2018 17:32:01 GMT -5
Hererra and/or Soria + Barnes, Brasier, Thornburg, Hembree, Lakins, Workman, Brewer, Wright, Johnson, Velasquez is a strong, deep, bullpen combining power and mult-inning arms to start the season. More in the minors. Why worry?!? No offense Gerry but when you talk about our players it's almost like you recite their names as if they're all-stars and HOFers. There are some fungible/question marks in that list of names you rattled off. Herrera is coming off an injury as is Wright and Thornburg. They are all big question marks. Hembree and Workman are ok, but nothing special. Same with Johnson and Velazquez who are more of starting pitching depth. Brasier, you hope is as good as he was last season. Can Barnes be the closer if need be? Is Brewer more than a AAAA pitcher? I see that list and see question marks. I don't see a pen that's necessarily better than other bullpens from other teams. But with pens who knows? The pen had a ton of question marks and suddenly became nails in the post-season.[/b][/b] I would attribute most of the "nails in the post-season" narrative to Alex Cora. Judicious use of available arms was what I saw. Kelly was the only real standout and given his post season track record this should not come as a surprise. Can this team realize the same results in 2019? Will the bullpen playoff success of 2018 be duplicated? Will the hold overs from 2018 build their own post season track record success? This team won while passing on numerous bullpen options (costly) in 2018. I strongly suspect they will attempt to do likewise for 2019.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2018 17:36:54 GMT -5
I'm ready to hand the keys to the bullpen to Brian Bannister. Go find your pitchers to fix.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 13, 2018 18:22:15 GMT -5
I think I figured it out. People will laugh because it looks like I'm beating a dead horse, but ...
They've made a 1-year offer to Kimbrel, and that's what they're waiting on. As I read the tea leaves, that Kimbrel would consider this is is a fairly recent development, created by a market that's at least a little weaker than he hoped.
Kimbrel's value is depressed. He's coming off a down year and a mostly terrible post-season. I did math for Kelly that shows that if a team overpays to bring you back for 1 year, you don't even have to pitch better than expected to come out ahead.
Can you imagine the contract Kimbrel would have been looking at if he had been a FA last year, after that ridiculously dominant season? He has the missed-ST and tipped-his-pitches excuses this year. If he were to return even halfway to 2017 form, he'd come out way ahead. And he gets to pursue another ring ... and be on the mound to have his catcher jump into his arms! (Don't think that he didn't dream on that, and then had to watch Sale get to close out the clinching game.)
It's a really difficult decision, and that would explain why he hasn't signed anywhere even though he's the #1 guy out there and a ridiculous number of dominoes are lined up behind him.
Getting Kimbrel on a 1-year deal would be hugely better for 2020 than signing Ottavino or Robertson. By the end of this coming year, you'll know just how good Lakins and Feltman are, for one thing.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 13, 2018 18:39:13 GMT -5
Maybe if Kimbrel truly believes his struggles were related to reports of his daughter that makes sense. It would have to be a huge one year offer because his floor is still rather high. Wade Davis got 3 years 52 million with a 4th year 15 million vesting option last year. Kimbrel was better last year and a lot better the last two years. Also a year younger.
Maybe that happens, but that will take forever. Frankly I'd rather get the better long-term deal,then trade him if you need to next year. If he repeats 2017, which he did for over half of 2018 till the issues with his Daughter, he'd have huge value.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 13, 2018 19:23:12 GMT -5
Maybe if Kimbrel truly believes his struggles were related to reports of his daughter that makes sense. It would have to be a huge one year offer because his floor is still rather high. Wade Davis got 3 years 52 million with a 4th year 15 million vesting option last year. Kimbrel was better last year and a lot better the last two years. Also a year younger. Maybe that happens, but that will take forever. Frankly I'd rather get the better long-term deal,then trade him if you need to next year. If he repeats 2017, which he did for over half of 2018 till the issues with his Daughter, he'd have huge value. It would have to be more or less for the QO; otherwise he looks dumb. A round $18M would be more than the $16M FG crowdsource AAV and way more than the $14M Kiley McDaniel (who has been better than the crowd so far) predicted. And he would get $100K for testing the market!
Given the way his teammates reacted to his daughter's struggle, I think he's a popular clubhouse guy. He'll be able to concentrate 100% on having the best year he can and will be highly motivated. It's such a good outcome for the Sox that paying a bit more than he would have gotten had there been no QO figure is not something you think twice about.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 13, 2018 19:42:47 GMT -5
I'm ready to hand the keys to the bullpen to Brian Bannister. Go find your pitchers to fix. They already did in Colton Brewer.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 13, 2018 19:45:30 GMT -5
If the Sox pay for Kimbrel, then they're probably trading Porcello. The Sox don't want to spend a ton more.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 13, 2018 20:35:26 GMT -5
(assuming health), we have:
long/swing:
Johnson Wright Velazquez
locks: Barnes Brasier Workman Hembree
Even with an 8 man pen, that only leaves room for one more from:
Poyner Thornburg Lakins Brewer free agent
Wouldn't a two for one trade make more sense ?
ADD: If Pedroia is healthy, we are only looking at a 7 man pen and Lin in the minors and even that assumes one of the catchers is traded.
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