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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 13, 2018 20:48:01 GMT -5
(assuming health), we have: long/swing: Johnson Wright Velazquez locks: Barnes Brasier Workman Hembree Even with an 8 man pen, that only leaves room for one more from: Poyner Thornburg Lakins Brewer free agent Wouldn't a two for one trade make more sense ? ADD: If Pedroia is healthy, we are only looking at a 7 man pen and Lin in the minors. Wright might be DL'd and Workman could be DFA'D by the end of spring training. No lock imo. Velazquez has options and he should be optioned for starting pitching depth but Cora has elected away from doing that in his first year here.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 13, 2018 20:58:25 GMT -5
(assuming health), we have: long/swing: Johnson Wright Velazquez locks: Barnes Brasier Workman Hembree Even with an 8 man pen, that only leaves room for one more from: Poyner Thornburg Lakins Brewer free agent Wouldn't a two for one trade make more sense ? ADD: If Pedroia is healthy, we are only looking at a 7 man pen and Lin in the minors. Wright might be DL'd and Workman could be DFA'D by the end of spring training. No lock imo. Velazquez has options and he should be optioned for starting pitching depth but Cora has elected away from doing that in his first year here. I did say assuming health and I wouldn't assume Wright will be on the DL. Also, Workman has value, he's not going to be DFA, he'll more likely be a trade throw in with the catcher or another pitcher. Also, Cora has input but who is on the 25 man is not his call.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 13, 2018 21:46:49 GMT -5
We're likely to have a 7 man pen so this makes a lot of sense: Evan Drellich Verified account evandrellichRed Sox want to wait out market for relievers. So maybe they see it simply as a game of musical chairs. More arms than potentially top-dollar openings, and someone falls to them ADD It might also make sense to wait until Realmuto, Grandal and Ramos are dealt with before dealing a catcher. DD is dealing with a full deck here.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 13, 2018 21:49:30 GMT -5
The Opening Day Staff is set; Starters; Sale, Price, Porcello, E. Rod, Johnson Pen; Velázquez, Workman, Hembree, Thornburg, Braiser, Barnes Closer; Eovaldi
The trade of a Catcher (Leon) could bring back a middle relief pitcher & Velázquez has an option so he could start in AAA.
Wright starts the season on the DL & becomes the 5th Starter once healthy with Johnson moving to the Pen.
Unless a middle releif pitcher falls into their lap at a very good price DD's off season is done.
The Pitchers on the 40 Man Roster will be given a chance to prove their worth when needed for the Big League Club until the trade deadline.
Eovaldi is the Closer - get over it everybody & get on board!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 13, 2018 22:40:01 GMT -5
Rob Bradford Verified account @bradfo
Source: Red Sox weren't going to three years for Joe Kelly
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2018 23:36:03 GMT -5
Maybe if Kimbrel truly believes his struggles were related to reports of his daughter that makes sense. It would have to be a huge one year offer because his floor is still rather high. Wade Davis got 3 years 52 million with a 4th year 15 million vesting option last year. Kimbrel was better last year and a lot better the last two years. Also a year younger. Maybe that happens, but that will take forever. Frankly I'd rather get the better long-term deal,then trade him if you need to next year. If he repeats 2017, which he did for over half of 2018 till the issues with his Daughter, he'd have huge value. It would have to be more or less for the QO; otherwise he looks dumb. A round $18M would be more than the $16M FG crowdsource AAV and way more than the $14M Kiley McDaniel (who has been better than the crowd so far) predicted. And he would get $100K for testing the market! Given the way his teammates reacted to his daughter's struggle, I think he's a popular clubhouse guy. He'll be able to concentrate 100% on having the best year he can and will be highly motivated. It's such a good outcome for the Sox that paying a bit more than he would have gotten had there been no QO figure is not something you think twice about.
Do you really believe that Kimbrel is possibly coming back on a 1 year 18 million or so deal? Kimbrel will get at least 3 years elsewhere and at this point I don't think the Sox have a major desire to blow past the upper luxury tax limit. They'll play the bargain basement game, hope they can get a reliever cheap, either a closer, or more likely a setup man which frees Barnes to close. They'll see if Thornburg can pitch healthy, how the kids are developing, and if they need to they'll rent a reliever/closer in July. If I'm wrong about the Kimbrel situation I have no problem admitting it, but I think the chance he comes back on a 1 year deal is less than slim to none. And I doubt the Sox want to commit big $ to a multi-year deal with Kimbrel.
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Post by patford on Dec 13, 2018 23:37:42 GMT -5
As long as the Sox do not re-sign Kimbrel it's mission accomplished. I don't care if the Sox finish last every year for the rest of my life as long as I never have to watch Kimbrel pitch again.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2018 23:38:30 GMT -5
The Opening Day Staff is set; Starters; Sale, Price, Porcello, E. Rod, Johnson Pen; Velázquez, Workman, Hembree, Thornburg, Braiser, Barnes Closer; Eovaldi The trade of a Catcher (Leon) could bring back a middle relief pitcher & Velázquez has an option so he could start in AAA. Wright starts the season on the DL & becomes the 5th Starter once healthy with Johnson moving to the Pen. Unless a middle releif pitcher falls into their lap at a very good price DD's off season is done. The Pitchers on the 40 Man Roster will be given a chance to prove their worth when needed for the Big League Club until the trade deadline. Eovaldi is the Closer - get over it everybody & get on board! Are you going to bombard us with Eovaldi is the closer nonsense just like you bombard us with let's trade JBJ proposals every five minutes? Eovaldi is NOT going to be the closer. You need to get over it. Wright won't be starting for quite awhile - he's not likely going to be healthy enough to do so. He'll be pitching in middle relief.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2018 23:44:14 GMT -5
As long as the Sox do not re-sign Kimbrel it's mission accomplished. I don't care if the Sox finish last every year for the rest of my life as long as I never have to watch Kimbrel pitch again. That is crazy. I'd care very much if the Sox finished last every damn year. And I'd take a repeat of 2018 with Kimbrel giving my heart attacks every night if the team goes out, wins those games, wins 108 games, blows away the Yankees, and wins the World Series. I could very much learn to live with that! Kimbrel could be excruciating at times, but I can think of plenty of closers who the Sox have had who've been worse. I go back to Mark Clear. He was a blast to watch. Watching Schiraldi melt in the Series was fun. Heathcliff Slocomb was a joy. How about the fun closers' committee of 2003? Or Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey before Koji saved them? Most closers never had the season that Kimbrel had in 2017 and the guy never had a real spring training in 2018 so cut the guy some slack. I remember watching Lee Smith and Jeff Reardon. They were never as good as Kimbrel was in 2017 and they weren't much better than Kimbrel was in 2018. We alo had Jeff Russell close and Rick Aguilera close. Really, just about every closer disappointed at some point. The only ones that were truly spectacular in a given year were Papelbon, Koji, Tom Gordon was really good in 1998, Kimbrel, and Foulke.
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 13, 2018 23:49:23 GMT -5
The Opening Day Staff is set; Starters; Sale, Price, Porcello, E. Rod, Johnson Pen; Velázquez, Workman, Hembree, Thornburg, Braiser, Barnes Closer; Eovaldi The trade of a Catcher (Leon) could bring back a middle relief pitcher & Velázquez has an option so he could start in AAA. Wright starts the season on the DL & becomes the 5th Starter once healthy with Johnson moving to the Pen. Unless a middle releif pitcher falls into their lap at a very good price DD's off season is done. The Pitchers on the 40 Man Roster will be given a chance to prove their worth when needed for the Big League Club until the trade deadline. Eovaldi is the Closer - get over it everybody & get on board! Are you going to bombard us with Eovaldi is the closer nonsense just like you bombard us with let's trade JBJ proposals every five minutes? Eovaldi is NOT going to be the closer. You need to get over it. Wright won't be starting for quite awhile - he's not likely going to be healthy enough to do so. He'll be pitching in middle relief. Hey can we just change the discussion to a Steven (wakefield) Wright for closer t-shirt (with a why not me thrown in) made up ... that will keep everybody happy
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 14, 2018 1:26:32 GMT -5
It would have to be more or less for the QO; otherwise he looks dumb. A round $18M would be more than the $16M FG crowdsource AAV and way more than the $14M Kiley McDaniel (who has been better than the crowd so far) predicted. And he would get $100K for testing the market! Given the way his teammates reacted to his daughter's struggle, I think he's a popular clubhouse guy. He'll be able to concentrate 100% on having the best year he can and will be highly motivated. It's such a good outcome for the Sox that paying a bit more than he would have gotten had there been no QO figure is not something you think twice about.
Do you really believe that Kimbrel is possibly coming back on a 1 year 18 million or so deal? Kimbrel will get at least 3 years elsewhere and at this point I don't think the Sox have a major desire to blow past the upper luxury tax limit. They'll play the bargain basement game, hope they can get a reliever cheap, either a closer, or more likely a setup man which frees Barnes to close. They'll see if Thornburg can pitch healthy, how the kids are developing, and if they need to they'll rent a reliever/closer in July. If I'm wrong about the Kimbrel situation I have no problem admitting it, but I think the chance he comes back on a 1 year deal is less than slim to none. And I doubt the Sox want to commit big $ to a multi-year deal with Kimbrel. I believe it's a possibility because it makes sense of two otherwise inexplicable facts. Let's start with some basics, though.
A) It seems really clear that after losing Kimbrel and Kelly, they need another really good reliever. They're down to two guys who made every post-season roster. You don't build a a team that is this good everywhere else and then nickle-and-dime yourself by leaving Heath Hembree, or a guy you picked up cheap at the end of the market, as the #3 arm in the pen. It's absurd.
B) The media speculation about them possibly wanting to cut payroll this year are just guys competing for the secret prize to see who can be stupider than Nick Cafardo. There's no evidence that they have any payroll constraints for this season - they had none last season, and then they won the WS which means a likely increase in revenue.
C) Because they project to be ridiculously good this year and then need to get under the tax limit the following year, one-year deals are very desirable for them.
1) Many national pundits thought Kimbrel would be a top priority for the Sox, but we correctly agreed there would be no chance of that, because they couldn't afford a long-term contract without crippling their capacity to get under the tax limit for 2020. DDo talked as if this lack of interest in Kimbrel were true for a good long while. But recently there have been reports that we're interested after all, or that we're waiting for him. Very strange, correct?
2) Robertson was linked to the Sox by everyone because of his stated desire to play close to his home (and we're way closer than everyone else). Then Ottavino, who also knows the area, was linked strongly to the Sox. Both of these reports are entirely credible and 100% consistent with "A" above and 100% inconsistent with the idiotic anti-"B" speculation.
These are the two most obvious names if you want a guy as good as Barnes and Brasier to replace Kimbrel. And they need that guy. That neither one has signed here yet is very puzzling. Teams are picking off the best of the second tier of relievers -- Familia and Kelly are gone, Miller and Britton remain -- but the top three are all unsigned. Given how many teams want one of the three, and that the two guys who aren't Kimbrel seem to want to play here and have been linked here strongly -- it's very strange that we haven't decided which one we want.
That's why I think this is a possibility. It doesn't have to be much higher than 10% for it to hold everything up. If there's another explanation for why they suddenly seem to be interested in a Kimbrel return and hence haven't moved on Robertson or Ottavino and nobody else has, either, what is it?
When there are strange facts, the correct thing to do is believe the best explanation if it seems at all likely. To the basic facts you can add:
D) A return of Kimbrel for one year would be even better than signing Robertson or Ottavino long-term. I already laid out the reasons he'd be a great clubhouse fit and be highly motivated to have an elite year. So you'll get most or all of the added salary in on-field value. And you reduce your commitment for 2020 by $10M to $15M, which could mean keeping JBJ or re-signing Sale. It's easy to say that they can deal the guy they sign a year from now if Lakins or Feltman have proven to be high-leverage arms, but if everyone knows you need to shed salary, you don't get full value.
That all of the reports linking us to Robertson and Ottavino were incorrect, and that reports of renewed interest in Kimbrel are incorrect, and reports that we want to limit payroll this year for no good reason and will settle on, say, a Kelvin Herrera return to form to be the #3 guy in the pen (instead of #4) are correct -- that's not a good explanation. And that's an understatement.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 14, 2018 3:53:25 GMT -5
Few things, Kimbrel has always made sense as the best available and safest option.
A one year deal makes some sense. Yet while Kimbrel's value is down, its not rock bottom type crap either. Market has already given two 3 years deals at 30 and 25 million. About what was expected for those two guys. Even low end estimates have to be four years 60 to 70 million. So given injury risk for pitchers I'm gonna say a one year deal is like 10% and that is only if you go really big like 20 plus million. You blow by the mark of highest paid closer per year by a good margin. Not $800,000. It's just not enough when he likely gets 15 to 17 million a year on a 4 year deal. There's enough there that I won't just dismiss the option. He's already made good money. Maybe staying a year for his daughter makes sense given Boston's medical care. Maybe it's all about family if he can't get close to what he wants given the flooded market. I just don't see the Red Sox putting any hopes on this line of thinking. You don't not go after other guys waiting on Kimbrel to take a one year offer.
I just don't underdtand don't give him a long-term deal because you might not get back 100% value if teams know you need to dump salary. 80%, heck 50% value would be two to three times what you get in draft picks to just let him leave. The only argument I see for avoiding the sign him long-term and trade him is his value could tank and you can't move him or you have to eat money type crap. Heck maybe even he's so good you can't bring yourself to trade him. On the flipside if he's 2017 good, he'll have massive trade value if signed to a value 4 year deal. It won't matter that teams know you need to dump money.
DD gave a cryptic kinda standard answer about next years payroll. You'll have to reset at sometime, teams don't like paying taxes. Hardly the we have to get under at all cost line that most on here believe and exactly what I expected he say.
So for me the we are going to wait on Kimbrel talk means, let him strikeout on these crazy 6 year 100 million dreams he has. Hope the market won't even go 5 years 80-85 million. Get in at 4 years, heck maybe dream on an unlikely 3 year deal. Still hoping a 4 year deal at 60 million can happen. Maybe he turns down a few dollars to come back to Boston. That would still be what the 3rd best closer deal in total guaranteed money, yet given Wade Davis deal almost seems like a bargin.
I also feel you need two bullpen arms. You want to wait out the market for the second one no problem. Yet I just don't see given everything invested into this team how you don't add two guys. A couple of very good arms are going to get one year deals in this market. Don't cheap out, it'll cost you a lot more at the deadline.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 14, 2018 4:01:24 GMT -5
UMass. You make a ton of sense
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 14, 2018 6:11:06 GMT -5
Do you really believe that Kimbrel is possibly coming back on a 1 year 18 million or so deal? Kimbrel will get at least 3 years elsewhere and at this point I don't think the Sox have a major desire to blow past the upper luxury tax limit. They'll play the bargain basement game, hope they can get a reliever cheap, either a closer, or more likely a setup man which frees Barnes to close. They'll see if Thornburg can pitch healthy, how the kids are developing, and if they need to they'll rent a reliever/closer in July. If I'm wrong about the Kimbrel situation I have no problem admitting it, but I think the chance he comes back on a 1 year deal is less than slim to none. And I doubt the Sox want to commit big $ to a multi-year deal with Kimbrel. I believe it's a possibility because it makes sense of two otherwise inexplicable facts. Let's start with some basics, though.
A) It seems really clear that after losing Kimbrel and Kelly, they need another really good reliever. They're down to two guys who made every post-season roster. You don't build a a team that is this good everywhere else and then nickle-and-dime yourself by leaving Heath Hembree, or a guy you picked up cheap at the end of the market, as the #3 arm in the pen. It's absurd.
B) The media speculation about them possibly wanting to cut payroll this year are just guys competing for the secret prize to see who can be stupider than Nick Cafardo. There's no evidence that they have any payroll constraints for this season - they had none last season, and then they won the WS which means a likely increase in revenue. C) Because they project to be ridiculously good this year and then need to get under the tax limit the following year, one-year deals are very desirable for them.
1) Many national pundits thought Kimbrel would be a top priority for the Sox, but we correctly agreed there would be no chance of that, because they couldn't afford a long-term contract without crippling their capacity to get under the tax limit for 2020. DDo talked as if this lack of interest in Kimbrel were true for a good long while. But recently there have been reports that we're interested after all, or that we're waiting for him. Very strange, correct?
2) Robertson was linked to the Sox by everyone because of his stated desire to play close to his home (and we're way closer than everyone else). Then Ottavino, who also knows the area, was linked strongly to the Sox. Both of these reports are entirely credible and 100% consistent with "A" above and 100% inconsistent with the idiotic anti-"B" speculation. These are the two most obvious names if you want a guy as good as Barnes and Brasier to replace Kimbrel. And they need that guy. That neither one has signed here yet is very puzzling. Teams are picking off the best of the second tier of relievers -- Familia and Kelly are gone, Miller and Britton remain -- but the top three are all unsigned. Given how many teams want one of the three, and that the two guys who aren't Kimbrel seem to want to play here and have been linked here strongly -- it's very strange that we haven't decided which one we want. That's why I think this is a possibility. It doesn't have to be much higher than 10% for it to hold everything up. If there's another explanation for why they suddenly seem to be interested in a Kimbrel return and hence haven't moved on Robertson or Ottavino and nobody else has, either, what is it? When there are strange facts, the correct thing to do is believe the best explanation if it seems at all likely. To the basic facts you can add: D) A return of Kimbrel for one year would be even better than signing Robertson or Ottavino long-term. I already laid out the reasons he'd be a great clubhouse fit and be highly motivated to have an elite year. So you'll get most or all of the added salary in on-field value. And you reduce your commitment for 2020 by $10M to $15M, which could mean keeping JBJ or re-signing Sale. It's easy to say that they can deal the guy they sign a year from now if Lakins or Feltman have proven to be high-leverage arms, but if everyone knows you need to shed salary, you don't get full value.
That all of the reports linking us to Robertson and Ottavino were incorrect, and that reports of renewed interest in Kimbrel are incorrect, and reports that we want to limit payroll this year for no good reason and will settle on, say, a Kelvin Herrera return to form to be the #3 guy in the pen (instead of #4) are correct -- that's not a good explanation. And that's an understatement.
If the Sox win again, exactly why do they "need" to get under the tax limit the following year ?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 14, 2018 9:15:20 GMT -5
I believe it's a possibility because it makes sense of two otherwise inexplicable facts. Let's start with some basics, though.
A) It seems really clear that after losing Kimbrel and Kelly, they need another really good reliever. They're down to two guys who made every post-season roster. You don't build a a team that is this good everywhere else and then nickle-and-dime yourself by leaving Heath Hembree, or a guy you picked up cheap at the end of the market, as the #3 arm in the pen. It's absurd.
B) The media speculation about them possibly wanting to cut payroll this year are just guys competing for the secret prize to see who can be stupider than Nick Cafardo. There's no evidence that they have any payroll constraints for this season - they had none last season, and then they won the WS which means a likely increase in revenue. C) Because they project to be ridiculously good this year and then need to get under the tax limit the following year, one-year deals are very desirable for them.
1) Many national pundits thought Kimbrel would be a top priority for the Sox, but we correctly agreed there would be no chance of that, because they couldn't afford a long-term contract without crippling their capacity to get under the tax limit for 2020. DDo talked as if this lack of interest in Kimbrel were true for a good long while. But recently there have been reports that we're interested after all, or that we're waiting for him. Very strange, correct?
2) Robertson was linked to the Sox by everyone because of his stated desire to play close to his home (and we're way closer than everyone else). Then Ottavino, who also knows the area, was linked strongly to the Sox. Both of these reports are entirely credible and 100% consistent with "A" above and 100% inconsistent with the idiotic anti-"B" speculation. These are the two most obvious names if you want a guy as good as Barnes and Brasier to replace Kimbrel. And they need that guy. That neither one has signed here yet is very puzzling. Teams are picking off the best of the second tier of relievers -- Familia and Kelly are gone, Miller and Britton remain -- but the top three are all unsigned. Given how many teams want one of the three, and that the two guys who aren't Kimbrel seem to want to play here and have been linked here strongly -- it's very strange that we haven't decided which one we want. That's why I think this is a possibility. It doesn't have to be much higher than 10% for it to hold everything up. If there's another explanation for why they suddenly seem to be interested in a Kimbrel return and hence haven't moved on Robertson or Ottavino and nobody else has, either, what is it? When there are strange facts, the correct thing to do is believe the best explanation if it seems at all likely. To the basic facts you can add: D) A return of Kimbrel for one year would be even better than signing Robertson or Ottavino long-term. I already laid out the reasons he'd be a great clubhouse fit and be highly motivated to have an elite year. So you'll get most or all of the added salary in on-field value. And you reduce your commitment for 2020 by $10M to $15M, which could mean keeping JBJ or re-signing Sale. It's easy to say that they can deal the guy they sign a year from now if Lakins or Feltman have proven to be high-leverage arms, but if everyone knows you need to shed salary, you don't get full value.
That all of the reports linking us to Robertson and Ottavino were incorrect, and that reports of renewed interest in Kimbrel are incorrect, and reports that we want to limit payroll this year for no good reason and will settle on, say, a Kelvin Herrera return to form to be the #3 guy in the pen (instead of #4) are correct -- that's not a good explanation. And that's an understatement.
If the Sox win again, exactly why do they "need" to get under the tax limit the following year ? Isn’t it because the penalties for going over three years in a row are much more severe? They could afford to blow them off, but is that wise?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 14, 2018 10:01:59 GMT -5
If the Sox win again, exactly why do they "need" to get under the tax limit the following year ? Isn’t it because the penalties for going over three years in a row are much more severe? They could afford to blow them off, but is that wise? The penalties do ramp up but only in dollars, not draft picks, etc. Henry makes more money from RSN than he does from the Red Sox. RSN profits are based on NESN viewership ratings because of the ADs which go up significantly with higher ratings. RSN profits aren't subject to revenue sharing.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 14, 2018 10:18:00 GMT -5
What should we expect from Durbin Feltman in 2019?
I’m guessing he will start in Portland, but with his fastball/slider combo, it’s easy to see the possibility of him dominating in Spring Training, and forcing the Red Sox to make a tough decision.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 14, 2018 10:18:55 GMT -5
Do you really believe that Kimbrel is possibly coming back on a 1 year 18 million or so deal? Kimbrel will get at least 3 years elsewhere and at this point I don't think the Sox have a major desire to blow past the upper luxury tax limit. They'll play the bargain basement game, hope they can get a reliever cheap, either a closer, or more likely a setup man which frees Barnes to close. They'll see if Thornburg can pitch healthy, how the kids are developing, and if they need to they'll rent a reliever/closer in July. If I'm wrong about the Kimbrel situation I have no problem admitting it, but I think the chance he comes back on a 1 year deal is less than slim to none. And I doubt the Sox want to commit big $ to a multi-year deal with Kimbrel. I believe it's a possibility because it makes sense of two otherwise inexplicable facts. Let's start with some basics, though.
A) It seems really clear that after losing Kimbrel and Kelly, they need another really good reliever. They're down to two guys who made every post-season roster. You don't build a a team that is this good everywhere else and then nickle-and-dime yourself by leaving Heath Hembree, or a guy you picked up cheap at the end of the market, as the #3 arm in the pen. It's absurd.
B) The media speculation about them possibly wanting to cut payroll this year are just guys competing for the secret prize to see who can be stupider than Nick Cafardo. There's no evidence that they have any payroll constraints for this season - they had none last season, and then they won the WS which means a likely increase in revenue. C) Because they project to be ridiculously good this year and then need to get under the tax limit the following year, one-year deals are very desirable for them.
1) Many national pundits thought Kimbrel would be a top priority for the Sox, but we correctly agreed there would be no chance of that, because they couldn't afford a long-term contract without crippling their capacity to get under the tax limit for 2020. DDo talked as if this lack of interest in Kimbrel were true for a good long while. But recently there have been reports that we're interested after all, or that we're waiting for him. Very strange, correct?
2) Robertson was linked to the Sox by everyone because of his stated desire to play close to his home (and we're way closer than everyone else). Then Ottavino, who also knows the area, was linked strongly to the Sox. Both of these reports are entirely credible and 100% consistent with "A" above and 100% inconsistent with the idiotic anti-"B" speculation. These are the two most obvious names if you want a guy as good as Barnes and Brasier to replace Kimbrel. And they need that guy. That neither one has signed here yet is very puzzling. Teams are picking off the best of the second tier of relievers -- Familia and Kelly are gone, Miller and Britton remain -- but the top three are all unsigned. Given how many teams want one of the three, and that the two guys who aren't Kimbrel seem to want to play here and have been linked here strongly -- it's very strange that we haven't decided which one we want. That's why I think this is a possibility. It doesn't have to be much higher than 10% for it to hold everything up. If there's another explanation for why they suddenly seem to be interested in a Kimbrel return and hence haven't moved on Robertson or Ottavino and nobody else has, either, what is it? When there are strange facts, the correct thing to do is believe the best explanation if it seems at all likely. To the basic facts you can add: D) A return of Kimbrel for one year would be even better than signing Robertson or Ottavino long-term. I already laid out the reasons he'd be a great clubhouse fit and be highly motivated to have an elite year. So you'll get most or all of the added salary in on-field value. And you reduce your commitment for 2020 by $10M to $15M, which could mean keeping JBJ or re-signing Sale. It's easy to say that they can deal the guy they sign a year from now if Lakins or Feltman have proven to be high-leverage arms, but if everyone knows you need to shed salary, you don't get full value.
That all of the reports linking us to Robertson and Ottavino were incorrect, and that reports of renewed interest in Kimbrel are incorrect, and reports that we want to limit payroll this year for no good reason and will settle on, say, a Kelvin Herrera return to form to be the #3 guy in the pen (instead of #4) are correct -- that's not a good explanation. And that's an understatement.
I guess we'll see, but your logic doesn't isn't convincing me, although if I'm wrong, I'll say hey Eric Van was right (I do that when I think of how my opinion of Dombrowski was formed/changed - I heeded your words and you were spot on). I mean, that 1 year deal works great for the Red Sox, but what does it do for Craig Kimbrel? So he signs a 1 year 20 million deal. Why take that if he can get 3 years 50 million or 4 years 65 million or something like that? His agent's fantasy of 6 years 100 million is a joke, but that doesn't mean Kimbrel won't have better options. Logically, Joe Kelly professed his undying love of the Red Sox, yet when it was contract time, the Dodgers offered 3 years and the Sox, along with everybody else, only offered 2. So where did he wind up? I'd be absolutely stunned if Kimbrel took a 1 year pillow contract when there are likely multiple years to be had. It's very possible the more logical explanation is that the Red Sox are going to wait for the top tier guys to sign, hope a bargain falls their way (maybe they see something in Hunter Strickland or somebody like that that they think they can fix?), hope that Thornburg is healthy, hope that Lakins can come up and help immediately. Likely they struggle and surprise, surprise, they're highly competitive but the bullpen needs fixing, so then Dombrowski finds a rental in the July trade market to help fix the pen, and then maybe the pen is further fortified by Feltman's ascension or maybe even Hernandez comes up as a difference maker. Either way the Sox are staying away from going over 246 in that scenario and more importantly, the one thing I think we both agree with, stay away from multi-year deals that make it tougher to reset their luxury tax ramifications come 2020. I know there's a feeling of "Hey, the Sox print money. So what if they go way over and keep paying penalties and keep getting their 1st round picks with the 40th or whatever pick." But I really doubt the Sox want to go in that direction. I would think that the Sox feel like they fixed Joe Kelly and they know how to fix him when he's going wrong and a fixed Joe Kelly is a huge weapon, yet they wanted no part of giving him as much as $8 million/year for more than 2 years. This tells me the Sox have their limits and they're going to severely limit what they spend on the bullpen to start the season. To me the more likely explanation is that the media has it wrong. They're not signing Kimbrel. They're not signing Ottavino, Miller, Britton, and they might not even sign Soria or Herrera. Maybe, just maybe they sign Robertson but it would be a 2 year deal and I'm not sure how high they'd be willing to do their annual.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 14, 2018 10:28:02 GMT -5
Adding to the above, the Evil Empire doesn't have that advantage. YES revenues don't go to the Steinbrenners, only broadcasting fees. YES revenues are owned by a holding company which is a subsidiary of a giant debt holding company, LLC (they have 200 billion in outstanding debt). As of last year, the Yankees were 100 million in debt to the holding company. Things aren't always what they seem.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 14, 2018 10:32:00 GMT -5
What should we expect from Durbin Feltman in 2019? I’m guessing he will start in Portland, but with his fastball/slider combo, it’s easy to see the possibility of him dominating in Spring Training, and forcing the Red Sox to make a tough decision. The Sox would be foolish to burn up most of a year's worth of control by having Feltman break camp with the Sox no matter how good he looks, when they could just wait 3 weeks before calling him up.
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Post by Canseco on Dec 14, 2018 10:44:42 GMT -5
What should we expect from Durbin Feltman in 2019? I’m guessing he will start in Portland, but with his fastball/slider combo, it’s easy to see the possibility of him dominating in Spring Training, and forcing the Red Sox to make a tough decision. The Sox would be foolish to burn up most of a year's worth of control by having Feltman break camp with the Sox no matter how good he looks, when they could just wait 3 weeks before calling him up. Yep. This is my hope for Feltman and Lakins. Let’s do what we can with the bullpen for the first few weeks, and then consider calling these guys up. Keep that year of control. If I had to guess, Lakins will be a late April/early May callup; Feltman could be closer to July.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 14, 2018 11:57:57 GMT -5
What should we expect from Durbin Feltman in 2019? I’m guessing he will start in Portland, but with his fastball/slider combo, it’s easy to see the possibility of him dominating in Spring Training, and forcing the Red Sox to make a tough decision. The Sox would be foolish to burn up most of a year's worth of control by having Feltman break camp with the Sox no matter how good he looks, when they could just wait 3 weeks before calling him up. I agree, and think some AA time will be an important part of his development, but could also see some pressure to keep Feltman if he has a lights out spring training, ultimately it is nearly certain that the Sox send him to Portland to start the season.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 14, 2018 12:49:11 GMT -5
I like Kimbrel, but I like Robertson too. Depending on the average per year and overall length each ask for, I may prefer Robertson. Especially if adding Robertson instead of Kimbrel means we could also add a 2nd RP of higher quality.
I really hope we don't trade Porcello, as I've stated quite a bit. He is more valuable than I think some give him credit for. That said, I am aware of his contract situation.
I would not be opposed to trading a Catcher for a RP either. I actually would prefer we do this.
I love the rotation and want it to remain in tact. I like Wight in the pen. I like Johnson as the 6th man too. Between Sale, Price, E-Rod and Eovaldi, we will have starting opportunities to go around.
For me: Kimbrel or Robertson, Braiser, Barnes, Hembree, Wright as locks with guys like Lakins, Workman, Velasquez, Feltman, Johnson, Thornburg, Brewer, Poyner, Taylor, etc rotating in throughout the year.
Ottavino would be great too........
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 14, 2018 12:58:40 GMT -5
The luxury tax is still 20% 30% 50% in its basic form. Say you stay 40 million over. The difference from the first year to the third year is 12 million dollars. 8 million vs 20 million. There are added taxes depending how high you go, but those are fixed. The only thing that changes is the 20-30-50 rate.
This teams revenue says we should be paying the tax year in and year out.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 14, 2018 13:17:22 GMT -5
The luxury tax is still 20% 30% 50% in its basic form. Say you stay 40 million over. The difference from the first year to the third year is 12 million dollars. 8 million vs 20 million. There are added taxes depending how high you go, but those are fixed. The only thing that changes is the 20-30-50 rate. This teams revenue says we should be paying the tax year in and year out. In 2017, RSN had 180 million in revenues. The figures for 2018 aren't in but NESN had a 24% ratings increase. Cha-ching.
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