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Post by taftreign on Jan 3, 2019 15:58:26 GMT -5
Robertson 10 mil in 2018, 11 mil in 2019 with a team option for 12 mil in 2020 or a 2 mil buyout.
Yankees on Britton.
Jon Heyman Verified account yankees seem focused on Zach Britton for the pen. he is believed to have multiple offers. but nyy wants to bring him back.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 3, 2019 16:45:13 GMT -5
Hasn't been mentioned but any team besides the Red Sox loses a draft pick and international money signing Kimbrel. In a normal year with few options that might not matter, but this year its huge. The international money would only apply to the Nationals, right? Only they and the Red Sox exceeded the luxury tax. And the draft pick compensation isn't as harsh as it used to be - first round picks are now protected.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 3, 2019 17:24:57 GMT -5
I mean, Robertson getting 11.5 for 2 years is a really good deal and the Sox should have been in on him for 12 million a year for 2 years. He's just as reliable as Kimbrel and would have been a great fit. Here's your sign that the Sox are definitely going cheap at this position of closer/last bullpen arm. Either that or they're waiting out Kimbrel. It's one or the other. I didn't think they'd be waiting on Kimbrel and I didn't really believe the rumors, but as stubborn as I am, I have to acknowledge that may be the case. His market doesn't contain a lot of teams. And Kimbrel is more expensive than Robertson and when Kimbrel is on - he's unhittable in a way that as good a pitcher as Robertson is - he's not. If the Sox can keep Kimbrel straightened out he's better than Robertson and most relievers. The thing I question is how the Sox get under the cap if they prioritize spending the money on a closer when they have decisions to make on how much to offer X, Sale, JDM, and Porcello. I started where PFF is, but it's very possible this is right. Maybe DD sees more players than seats in the musical chairs game and is fine waiting for a deal rather than the bird in hand, to mix metaphors. Hasn't been mentioned but any team besides the Red Sox loses a draft pick and international money signing Kimbrel. In a normal year with few options that might not matter, but this year its huge. The international money would only apply to the Nationals, right? Only they and the Red Sox exceeded the luxury tax. And the draft pick compensation isn't as harsh as it used to be - first round picks are now protected. Nats would lose their second and fifth picks, as well as $1M on the IFA cap. LAA, HOU, TOR, STL, CHC, LAD, SF, NYM, PHI, TEX, CWS, NYY would lose their second and $500k. Everyone else loses their third.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 3, 2019 17:33:49 GMT -5
www.mlb.com/news/craig-kimbrel-could-return-to-red-sox/c-302349102It has been said that Atlanta doesn't want to go 4 years.. How about being creative with opt-outs to get him for just 1 year? 2019: $18M player opt-out 2020: $12M 2021: $12M 2022: $10M Then he can say he got 4/$52, and end up leaving after a year. Plus he'd have the security of the additional years in case of disaster. Of course in the end, I expect our bullpen to be bolstered by a Swihart trade. I also think that Lakins and Feltman are going to be in the bullpen before it gets too hot and Hernandez will bolster it later in the season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 3, 2019 18:17:32 GMT -5
So Atlanta only loses a third round pick for Kimbrel and no international money....
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bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Jan 3, 2019 18:30:53 GMT -5
Either that or they're waiting out Kimbrel. It's one or the other. I didn't think they'd be waiting on Kimbrel and I didn't really believe the rumors, but as stubborn as I am, I have to acknowledge that may be the case. His market doesn't contain a lot of teams. And Kimbrel is more expensive than Robertson and when Kimbrel is on - he's unhittable in a way that as good a pitcher as Robertson is - he's not. If the Sox can keep Kimbrel straightened out he's better than Robertson and most relievers. The thing I question is how the Sox get under the cap if they prioritize spending the money on a closer when they have decisions to make on how much to offer X, Sale, JDM, and Porcello. I started where PFF is, but it's very possible this is right. Maybe DD sees more players than seats in the musical chairs game and is fine waiting for a deal rather than the bird in hand, to mix metaphors. I think this is correct in that DD is probably waiting for the music to stop and pickup a deal on who is left. Kimbrel's market appears to be dwindling and NY still needs two relievers to replace Britton and Robertson. Rumors indicate NY wants Britton back but if Kimbrel is available on a decent deal and the Sox still don't want to shell out the money, does NY take a chance on Kimbrel on a deal plus giving up the 2nd draft pick and 500k in international pool money? Some of it most likely depends if they sign Machado but it would give them big bullpen arms again.
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Post by soxjim on Jan 3, 2019 18:59:40 GMT -5
I'm not a big fan of Robertson. I dont know much about Ottavino and I like Brotton. but if we can get Kimbrel on the cheap - we have to say thank you to the other baseball teams out there.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 3, 2019 19:06:25 GMT -5
I dont expect Swithart to bring back more than a Hembree, meaning the Hembree the Sox traded for not the current incarnation.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 3, 2019 22:01:01 GMT -5
I dont expect Swithart to bring back more than a Hembree, meaning the Hembree the Sox traded for not the current incarnation. We got Hembree for a terrible Jake Peavy. Swihart should be way more valuable.
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Post by soxjim on Jan 3, 2019 22:22:24 GMT -5
I dont expect Swithart to bring back more than a Hembree, meaning the Hembree the Sox traded for not the current incarnation. We got Hembree for a terrible Jake Peavy. Swihart should be way more valuable. Don't trade Swihart unless the relief pitcher is very, very, very, very, very good.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 3, 2019 22:39:55 GMT -5
I'm not a big fan of Robertson. I dont know much about Ottavino and I like Brotton. but if we can get Kimbrel on the cheap - we have to say thank you to the other baseball teams out there. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/adam-ottavino-rebuilt-himself-in-a-vacant-manhattan-storefront/He was a 1st-rounder out of Northeastern of all places; as you can read in the article he’s a bright guy who’s worked (and looks to continue to do so) hard to hone his craft. Great year in CO, which really means something. Has a very good slider and uses his cutter as a change-of-pace, basically a 3-pitch closer. Lots of swing-and-miss, and really tightened up his command (check out the SL heatmaps...he works to specific locations around the zone, IN the zone). He throws reasonably hard but gets whiffs with his SL and occasionally with the 4FB with the addition of the cutter (which makes sitting FB tougher). Not a ton of mileage on his arm. I like him a lot, although he really struggles with the running game, which is not something to sneeze at.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 3, 2019 22:44:45 GMT -5
I'm not a big fan of Robertson. I dont know much about Ottavino and I like Brotton. but if we can get Kimbrel on the cheap - we have to say thank you to the other baseball teams out there. I like Britton a lot, too. The Achilles year is a long, tough rehab but shouldn’t affect him long-term. I can see why his command/control were off last year but he def got better down the stretch. He’s relatively young and might come *fairly* cheaply, considering Robertson’s deal (I thought he’d get closer to $13M AAV; I guessed Britton at 3/$30M, and obviously NY’s interest will affect that, but I’d def take Britton on those terms). Put Pedroia back at second (or Lin, or Holt...anyone but Nunez), and with some improvement from Devers, and Britton’s GB tendencies become a lot more palatable.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 3, 2019 23:19:12 GMT -5
So Atlanta only loses a third round pick for Kimbrel and no international money.... Correct. And don't forget the draft pick the Red Sox would pick up after the fourth round. What? It basically would get them most of the slot money back they lose by falling back 10 spots for the CBT penalty.
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Post by sparkygian on Jan 4, 2019 3:05:04 GMT -5
It seems like kind of an odd fit for Britton to want to sign with NYY, and end up having to share closing duties with Chapman. Seems like NYY would be looking to add a right-hander to fill the role Robertson had. I know that rumors are going around that they are seriously thinking about signing two quality relievers, but if they're really going to shell-out the money to get Machado, then I can imagine that ponying up the money for one reliever sounds more likelier than signing two relievers. Britton would seem to make more sense for Boston than Yanks. Perhaps Kimbrel will admit defeat to hoping for any sort of long-term, big money contract this offseason, and will be willing to sign a one year deal, and bank on having a great year in 2019 and try again for the big money contract next offseason.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 4, 2019 7:36:33 GMT -5
Maybe some guys are starting to not care as much about the “closer” label. These days if you do your job and are great you’ll get paid accordingly and get the recognition. Look at Andrew Miller, everyone universally agreed he was one of the best and most valuable relievers. They all felt he was better than Cody Allen. Teams are realizing you need multiple guys in the pen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2019 9:20:37 GMT -5
JP: Is Durbin Feltman a potential high-leverage reliever in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 4, 2019 9:49:06 GMT -5
JP: Is Durbin Feltman a potential high-leverage reliever in 2019? Keith Law: Yes. That's one reason why they're being extra patient.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2019 10:00:55 GMT -5
In he same chat, he referred to Kimbrel as a ticking time bomb, didn't think it was a wise move for Philly.
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Post by soxcentral on Jan 4, 2019 10:59:09 GMT -5
Part of me wants to see Kimbrel back on a 1 year deal while waiting out the development of the younger arms. The other part is very intrigued by Britton and the potential he can bounce back and be a key LHR for the next 2-3 years.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2019 11:11:41 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 4, 2019 11:21:07 GMT -5
Here's my take on Kimbrel: I'm pretty bearish long-term. I do believe he was tipping pitches in the postseason and that it was contributing to his struggles. Part of the thing with Kimbrel has always been that his command isn't good, but that his velocity and movement are so outstanding that it doesn't matter, producing a ton of (really ugly) out-of-zone swings. But he can get away with the command issues because he has the velocity to make hitters guess early. Even a couple ticks slower on the fastball, and the command issues are going to be exacerbated, because players can wait that split second and lay off anything off speed. And we saw in the playoffs what a nightmare Kimbrel is when hitters can identify his offspeed stuff.
But here's the thing: everyone else was watching that, too, right? Like, I'm not this super-savvy talent evaluator, and I could see what everyone else saw. Every GM came to the conclusion that I just did. A lot has been made about how free agents get paid for past performance, which is only-half true. They get paid for how past performance will inform future performance. That seems self-explanator, but I think it's helpful to say it again. So, while Kimbrel's performance record is similar to that of Jansen and Chapman at the time they hit free agency, there's a much greater reason to be skeptical of Kimbrel. I'm sure that's really, really frustrating: he looks at his performance history, it compares favorably with the highest-paid relievers ever, and he thinks he should be paid commensurate value. It's not a crazy thought, and I don't harbor any ill-will toward him for thinking that. But... I also think any GM who gives him Jansen money is kind of a moron, and that the potential performance issues with Kimbrel are pretty out in the open.
On the flip side, I'm worried about a 2003 situation in the bullpen. I don't care whether there is a Proven CloserTM but I do care that the arms in the bullpen are good enough. I think Barnes and Brasier are good, but that's not enough, and injury or underperformance by one could blow the whole thing up. Brewer/Lakins/Thornburg/Feltman being looked at as possible high-leverage arms reminds me of going into the season where Brandon Lyon and Chad Fox and Ramiro Mendoza and Epstein's innate ability to find undervalued talent would make up the bullpen.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 4, 2019 11:33:21 GMT -5
Here's my take on Kimbrel: I'm pretty bearish long-term. I do believe he was tipping pitches in the postseason and that it was contributing to his struggles. Part of the thing with Kimbrel has always been that his command isn't good, but that his velocity and movement are so outstanding that it doesn't matter, producing a ton of (really ugly) out-of-zone swings. But he can get away with the command issues because he has the velocity to make hitters guess early. Even a couple ticks slower on the fastball, and the command issues are going to be exacerbated, because players can wait that split second and lay off anything off speed. And we saw in the playoffs what a nightmare Kimbrel is when hitters can identify his offspeed stuff. But here's the thing: everyone else was watching that, too, right? Like, I'm not this super-savvy talent evaluator, and I could see what everyone else saw. Every GM came to the conclusion that I just did. A lot has been made about how free agents get paid for past performance, which is only-half true. They get paid for how past performance will inform future performance. That seems self-explanator, but I think it's helpful to say it again. So, while Kimbrel's performance record is similar to that of Jansen and Kimbrel at the time they hit free agency, there's a much greater reason to be skeptical of Kimbrel. I'm sure that's really, really frustrating: he looks at his performance history, it compares favorably with the highest-paid relievers ever, and he thinks he should be paid commensurate value. It's not a crazy thought, and I don't harbor any ill-will toward him for thinking that. But... I also think any GM who gives him Jansen money is kind of a moron, and that the potential performance issues with Kimbrel are pretty out in the open. On the flip side, I'm worried about a 2003 situation in the bullpen. I don't care whether there is a Proven Closer TM but I do care that the arms in the bullpen are good enough. I think Barnes and Brasier are good, but that's not enough, and injury or underperformance by one could blow the whole thing up. Brewer/Lakins/Thornburg/Feltman being looked at as possible high-leverage arms reminds me of going into the season where Brandon Lyon and Chad Fox and Ramiro Mendoza and Epstein's innate ability to find undervalued talent would make up the bullpen. I've been saying the same thing about Kimbrel for years. He's more reliant on his velocity than just about any pitcher I can think of. That's a scary thought when considering a 4+ year deal with him at age 30. There's a fine line between Kimbrel being dominant and him being out of the majors IMO.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 4, 2019 12:31:42 GMT -5
JP: Is Durbin Feltman a potential high-leverage reliever in 2019? Keith Law: Yes. File this under the meaningless take department. One word answer to a question with the word “potential”. 5% chance equals potential.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 4, 2019 12:36:09 GMT -5
JP: Is Durbin Feltman a potential high-leverage reliever in 2019? Keith Law: Yes. File this under the meaningless take department. One word answer to a question with the word “potential”. 5% chance equals potential. Eh, Keith is often terse like that. He is saying that he likes Feltman and that he's relatively close to being a contributor. He's not the type who would just say "yes" if he thought there was only a 5% of a chance it was going to happen. I've been saying the same thing about Kimbrel for years. He's more reliant on his velocity than just about any pitcher I can think of. That's a scary thought when considering a 4+ year deal with him at age 30. There's a fine line between Kimbrel being dominant and him being out of the majors IMO. Yeah. And the thing is, I can be talked into paying a year at the end for quality in the early end of the contract. But Kimbrel doesn't give the kind of confidence in 2019 that a high-end free agent should. There's a much better chance he totally washes out than most guys in his position. There's also a chance that he's the best reliever in baseball, but it's a tougher risk/reward balance than you see with other free agents, IMO. So I agree that I just don't like him on a four year deal. I'd have no problem with three, because the reward is really high in the short term. But I totally get why Kimbrel sees the Jansen and Chapman deals and doesn't want to settle for three.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 4, 2019 12:53:49 GMT -5
I loved what Kimbrel did as a Red Sox player but don't want him back on more than a 1-year deal for QO money or less. I think Robertson was comparable and surprised for that money and length he's not on Boston. I do think Britton is a big bounce-back candidate because his woes weren't arm related and if you can get him for about the same as Robertson I'd be all in favor of that.
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