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Post by jimed14 on Dec 31, 2018 14:08:05 GMT -5
And maybe also based on K-rate, BB-rate, xFIP, SIERA, xwOBA. Barnes/Kimbrel K-rate 36.2%/38.9% BB-rate 11.7%/12.6% xFIP 2.83/3.13 SIERA 2.78/2.71 xwOBA .267/.265 The main difference between the two is that Barnes is a ground ball pitcher and Kimbrel is a fly ball pitcher. 53.0%/28.2% No the main difference is Barnes gives up a lot more hits and his career low HR rate allowed him get away with it. Barnes has never had a season with a Whip under 1, Kimbrels career average is under 1. One guy giving up 31 hits to the others 47 isn't close in basically the same innings. Nevermind the 2.3 bwar to 1.1 bwar. Also don't give me fwar for them unless you truly believe that BAbip isn't a skill and is 100% luck like fangraph thinks. Because Barnes is over .324 for his career, Kimbrel is .263 and fangraphs just sets both to .300. Yes, BABIP is a skill, but there is also luck involved, which is why we now have: xwOBA .267/.265 I'll take anything over WHIP please. xFIP, SIERA, xFIP-, xwOBA, whatever. I mean just look at this and tell me that Barnes and Kimbrel had drastically different seasons last year. At that point, I'll shut up. They even both struck out exactly 96 batters just for fun.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 31, 2018 14:08:09 GMT -5
That's all star at every position logic. Well, not quite. We don't need elite but highly reliable. Everybody knows that having a good bullpen is instrumental to team success. Losing Kelly (late year Kelly) and Kimbrel obviously leaves us very short. Brasier was a very welcome surprise. Hopefully we sign a top reliever and someone else emerges from the primordial morass that you posited. All of the relievers in that particular post are pitchers who aren't expected to break camp. If the team is healthy and we go into the season with the team we have now except trading a catcher for a prospect, we're the favorites to win it all. Adding a reliever or two is a nicety not a necessity.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 31, 2018 14:28:09 GMT -5
No the main difference is Barnes gives up a lot more hits and his career low HR rate allowed him get away with it. Barnes has never had a season with a Whip under 1, Kimbrels career average is under 1. One guy giving up 31 hits to the others 47 isn't close in basically the same innings. Nevermind the 2.3 bwar to 1.1 bwar. Also don't give me fwar for them unless you truly believe that BAbip isn't a skill and is 100% luck like fangraph thinks. Because Barnes is over .324 for his career, Kimbrel is .263 and fangraphs just sets both to .300. Yes, BABIP is a skill, but there is also luck involved, which is why we now have: xwOBA .267/.265 I'll take anything over WHIP please. xFIP, SIERA, xFIP-, xwOBA, whatever. I mean just look at this and tell me that Barnes and Kimbrel had drastically different seasons last year. At that point, I'll shut up. They even both struck out exactly 96 batters just for fun. wOBA .256 vs .279, those are the actual results Jimed. Your trying to say they were the same based off of what someone says the expected results should be. Yet like I said look at Barnes and Kimbrels career numbers on BAbip. Every advanced stat has holes and this is one of the newest ones. So if your whole case is based on this all the power too you. You get that Kimbrel has outperformed his xwOBA for the last three years and Barnes was the exact opposite for the last three years right? If you want to use that tool than please explain that?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 31, 2018 14:34:56 GMT -5
Yes, BABIP is a skill, but there is also luck involved, which is why we now have: xwOBA .267/.265 I'll take anything over WHIP please. xFIP, SIERA, xFIP-, xwOBA, whatever. I mean just look at this and tell me that Barnes and Kimbrel had drastically different seasons last year. At that point, I'll shut up. They even both struck out exactly 96 batters just for fun. wOBA .256 vs .279, those are the actual results Jimed. Your trying to say they were the same based off of what someone says the expected results should be. Yet like I said look at Barnes and Kimbrels career numbers on BAbip. Every advanced stat has holes and this is one of the newest ones. So if your whole case is based on this all the power too you. You get that Kimbrel has outperformed his xwOBA for the last three years and Barnes was the exact opposite for the last three years right? If you want to use that tool than please explain that? xwOBA is based on the hardness of contact. What other BABIP skill is there other than inducing weak contact? xwOBA is the ONLY stat that exposes a BABIP skill! You get that three seasons of a relief pitcher is equal to about one season of a starting pitcher right? You know what, forget it, you win again, the king of arguing until everyone else is f'ing sick of talking. They had such different seasons last year, as evidenced by WHIP.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 31, 2018 14:46:32 GMT -5
wOBA .256 vs .279, those are the actual results Jimed. Your trying to say they were the same based off of what someone says the expected results should be. Yet like I said look at Barnes and Kimbrels career numbers on BAbip. Every advanced stat has holes and this is one of the newest ones. So if your whole case is based on this all the power too you. You get that Kimbrel has outperformed his xwOBA for the last three years and Barnes was the exact opposite for the last three years right? If you want to use that tool than please explain that? xwOBA is based on the hardness of contact. What other BABIP skill is there other than inducing weak contact? xwOBA is the ONLY stat that exposes a BABIP skill! You get that three seasons of a relief pitcher is equal to about one season of a starting pitcher right? You know what, forget it, you win again, the king of arguing until everyone else is f'ing sick of talking. They had such different seasons last year, as evidenced by WHIP. Kimbrel had a hard hit% of 32.2, Barnes was 39.7 per that site last year.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 31, 2018 14:58:30 GMT -5
m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-wobaWhy it's useful xwOBA is more indicative of a player's skill than regular wOBA, as xwOBA removes defense from the equation. Hitters, and likewise pitchers, are able to influence exit velocity and launch angle but have no control over what happens to a batted ball once it is put into play.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 31, 2018 15:17:11 GMT -5
Do we really need to scream ? You should also know that no matter how many posts you make, umass will have the last one.
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Post by soxcentral on Dec 31, 2018 15:50:57 GMT -5
Maybe everyone wouldn’t be so angry around here if the offseason wasn’t so slow.
*ducks*
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2018 16:00:19 GMT -5
I don’t know why we are arguing about Barnes and Kimbrel like one is replacing the other. We had them both last year. We need them both again this year (or the equivalent of it). Same with replacing Kelly.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 31, 2018 19:13:32 GMT -5
Well, they were 4th and 5th at the end because they were using Sale and Eovaldi out of the bullpen. I don't think that's quite a useful complaint. Who has better relievers than Sale and Eovaldi? They'd probably be ahead of anyone that they could sign also. It's true and you can add Porcello to the rover list along with Price. But what are the odds they can do that to that extent again? I think it required a perfect storm for that to happen. I mean this was true for every game in the postseason too. The Sox had a lead or were tied in every game besides game 1 in the ALCS. You're not afraid to burn starters if your approach is to attack and win every game you play. The Sox didn't win every game, but they lost only once in every playoff series. It was a spectacle that the Sox did what they did, but if the Sox fell behind like by 2 games in a playoff series, then the "rover" position in the bullpen could have burned Cora and the Sox hard. This strategy isn't always going to work. The Sox should try to develop quality depth in the bullpen instead of being too scared to go to anyone else besides a starter in the 8th inning because no one in your bullpen can throw strikes. Certainly glad it worked out the way it did though.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 31, 2018 19:24:25 GMT -5
Yet everyone acts like Braiser is going to be a closer/set-up caliber pitcher next year. Dombrowski is very straightforward. The most straightforward GM I have ever seen. He keeps telling everyone that the team is fully prepared to go to camp with a battle for the closer position and a battle within the bullpen. I hope you're right about the fact that they should be building a superteam, but I'm not sure if Henry wants to go too far past the 246 if he does go over. He could care less about the draft picks, I just don't think he wants to keep paying the freight on the tax. We will see, I guess.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 1, 2019 20:24:46 GMT -5
Yet everyone acts like Braiser is going to be a closer/set-up caliber pitcher next year. Dombrowski is very straightforward. The most straightforward GM I have ever seen. He keeps telling everyone that the team is fully prepared to go to camp with a battle for the closer position and a battle within the bullpen. I hope you're right about the fact that they should be building a superteam, but I'm not sure if Henry wants to go too far past the 246 if he does go over. He could care less about the draft picks, I just don't think he wants to keep paying the freight on the tax. We will see, I guess. Again, he said he was prepared to go into 2018 without JDM. I believe he was telling the truth then. I also believe that he had no intention of doing that without trying his hardest to sign JDM. He just didn't say the latter. The nice thing about being straightforward is you can say things like that, have them be true, but still be playing the game. I have to admit I've loved watching Dombrowski work for reasons like this. I think this is exactly the same situation. If the cards fall a certain way, he'll enter the season with this bullpen. That scenario, imo, is one in which all of the relievers left are overpaid and/or otherwise don't sign with the Red Sox.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 3, 2019 13:31:45 GMT -5
Another option off the board:
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 3, 2019 13:41:50 GMT -5
Given the Phillies payroll situation, I think it was a good move by them to increase the AAV rather than give the third year. Can't blame the Red Sox for not matching that. A little disappointed though, he'd have been a good fit.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 3, 2019 13:42:08 GMT -5
Another option for Kimbrel off the board. Pillow contract here we come!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 3, 2019 13:45:52 GMT -5
That's a 11.5 million AAV for 2 years, if the Sox won't match that for Robertson, then I don't know how we can expect even a little bit more for Kimbrel, even on a one year deal.
Kelvim Herrera or Cody Allen it is.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 3, 2019 13:46:49 GMT -5
That's a 11.5 million AAV for 2 years, if the Sox won't match that for Robertson, then I don't know how we can expect even a little bit more for Kimbrel, even on a one year deal. Kelvim Herrera or Cody Allen it is. Because they will go way over in 2019 and reset in 2020?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 3, 2019 13:48:07 GMT -5
Another option for Kimbrel off the board. Pillow contract here we come! Atlanta is in the Kimbrel market. Rumored to want him back at 3 years or less. Could see him going back there if he gets a opt out. They have money to spend. Not to mention that if the Phillies want, they can still sign Kimbrel and build a REALLY good bullpen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 3, 2019 13:48:17 GMT -5
So either the Red Sox didn't even want to go 2 years with Robertson and only want to go one year for a reliever - such as a Brad Brach or a Cody Allen or they're waiting on Craig Kimbrel to get to 3 years $40 million or whatever.
I think this is a domino move. Now the Yankees also need a reliever or two. I'd think Adam Ottavino will be signing with the Yankees pretty soon if not the Red Sox, but I don't think the Sox would go for Ottavino over Robertson.
Also interesting is that if the intent is to make Robertson their closer Philly would be out of the market for Kimbrel, but even that's not a certainty. If the Phillies don't sign Machado or Harper then maybe they wind up with both Kimbrel and Robertson in their pen with Robertson setting up like he was in NY? Although that is an expensive setup man.
But if Philly is out, then maybe that knocks Kimbrel's market to Atlanta and Boston? Atlanta is closer to where he's from and they have the money to spend. I think it's one of those cases where if it's close he goes to Atlanta, but if the Sox separate themselves from Atlanta a bit he goes back to Boston.
Maybe the Sox are trying to get Kimbrel for something like 3 years 40 million which is a good deal (I think, depending upon what Kimbrel is going forward), or at least a much better deal than what he was looking for.
But if the Sox do bring back Kimbrel then unless they're prepared to lose most of their 2019 free agents how do they get under 206 million in 2020?
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 3, 2019 13:49:35 GMT -5
Time for another lightning round of "why this thing that happened reinforces my preconceptions!"
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 3, 2019 13:51:38 GMT -5
Given the Phillies payroll situation, I think it was a good move by them to increase the AAV rather than give the third year. Can't blame the Red Sox for not matching that. A little disappointed though, he'd have been a good fit. This is going to sound kind of dumb, but I'm kind of glad he's not on the Red Sox. This is petty, but the Yankees in the way they voted their shares - sounds like Robertson had a way of making things divisive - screwing players with lesser times, ignoring some of the assistants. By contrast the 2018 Red Sox were generous in their voting. They made Eovaldi, Kinsler, and Pearce feel like they had been on that team all along as opposed to how Happ, Britton, Voit and others were made to feel. The 2018 Red Sox were not only the best team in baseball but were made up of a bunch of "good guys". No wonder the team had excellent chemistry. I'm not sure a guy with the mindset like Robertson would have fit. Again, petty and probably stupid on my part, but that was my impression anyways - and yeah I could be dead wrong.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 3, 2019 13:54:33 GMT -5
I mean, Robertson getting 11.5 for 2 years is a really good deal and the Sox should have been in on him for 12 million a year for 2 years. He's just as reliable as Kimbrel and would have been a great fit.
Here's your sign that the Sox are definitely going cheap at this position of closer/last bullpen arm.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 3, 2019 13:58:23 GMT -5
I mean, Robertson getting 11.5 for 2 years is a really good deal and the Sox should have been in on him for 12 million a year for 2 years. He's just as reliable as Kimbrel and would have been a great fit. Here's your sign that the Sox are definitely going cheap at this position of closer/last bullpen arm. Either that or they're waiting out Kimbrel. It's one or the other. I didn't think they'd be waiting on Kimbrel and I didn't really believe the rumors, but as stubborn as I am, I have to acknowledge that may be the case. His market doesn't contain a lot of teams. And Kimbrel is more expensive than Robertson and when Kimbrel is on - he's unhittable in a way that as good a pitcher as Robertson is - he's not. If the Sox can keep Kimbrel straightened out he's better than Robertson and most relievers. The thing I question is how the Sox get under the cap if they prioritize spending the money on a closer when they have decisions to make on how much to offer X, Sale, JDM, and Porcello.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 3, 2019 14:18:12 GMT -5
Still holding out hope for Ottavino or Britton. Herrera might be a good fallback option.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 3, 2019 15:19:00 GMT -5
Hasn't been mentioned but any team besides the Red Sox loses a draft pick and international money signing Kimbrel. In a normal year with few options that might not matter, but this year its huge.
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