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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2018 20:26:42 GMT -5
Glad they gave Carson another chance despite all he went through here the past year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 30, 2018 20:26:55 GMT -5
I still think it's a better idea to trade a catcher and a reliever (Hembree or Workman) for a better cost controlled reliever and a prospect. One bird with two scones and solves a lot of issues. Instead of signing Robertson / Ottavino, or instead of signing a Herrera / Allen type?
If the latter, that's a defensible idea worth exploring. But you're not going to get someone cost-controlled and as good as Robertson or Ottavino for CV/ Swihart and Hembree, let alone Leon and Workman. And I don't think you can go into the season with whoever you can get in this trade as the 3rd best reliever.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2018 21:13:58 GMT -5
The more I think about Carson Smith resigning, the more I like it. He's probably out for most of the year, if not all of it.
However, if you add him to the 40 man roster by September call-up time or soon right after the regular season, then you still own all of his years of control. Not to mention the fact that he has one or 2 options remaining when he comes back in 2020 (meanining you don't need to rush him back,in 2020). Just glad Carson wanted to comeback here.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 30, 2018 22:13:24 GMT -5
Thought I read somewhere that Nick Cafardo (yeah, I know) is saying that the Red Sox are looking for 1 year relief help so basically if he's correct (which in this rare case I do think he is) then the Sox would not be signing Robertson or Ottavino. If that's the case that would put them in Cody Allen or Kelvin Herrera territory.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2018 22:16:19 GMT -5
Thought I read somewhere that Nick Cafardo (yeah, I know) is saying that the Red Sox are looking for 1 year relief help so basically if he's correct (which in this rare case I do think he is) then the Sox would not be signing Robertson or Ottavino. If that's the case that would put them in Cody Allen or Kelvin Herrera territory. Cody Allen versus Herrera. That's a tough one if I had to pick one. Allen might be running out of bullets it seems, yet Herrera will be out until May or June with a injury. I'd take Herrera personally, but wouldn't be mad either way. When you go cheap, you take what you can get.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 31, 2018 0:39:40 GMT -5
I still think it's a better idea to trade a catcher and a reliever (Hembree or Workman) for a better cost controlled reliever and a prospect. One bird with two scones and solves a lot of issues. Instead of signing Robertson / Ottavino, or instead of signing a Herrera / Allen type? If the latter, that's a defensible idea worth exploring. But you're not going to get someone cost-controlled and as good as Robertson or Ottavino for CV/ Swihart and Hembree, let alone Leon and Workman. And I don't think you can go into the season with whoever you can get in this trade as the 3rd best reliever.
You have less confidence in Brasier and Barnes and more confidence in Ottavino and Robertson than I do. Even if we sign one of them, there's no guarantee he's the closer. Ottavino is a career set up man and it's been a long while since Robertson closed anything. I wouldn't be at all opposed to someone roughly the '3rd best pitcher'. Someone between Hembree and Barnes but closer to Barnes. This is especially true because of the strong relievers we have and are accumulating one door down.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 31, 2018 1:34:29 GMT -5
Thought I read somewhere that Nick Cafardo (yeah, I know) is saying that the Red Sox are looking for 1 year relief help so basically if he's correct (which in this rare case I do think he is) then the Sox would not be signing Robertson or Ottavino. If that's the case that would put them in Cody Allen or Kelvin Herrera territory. Cafardo said that they're looking for a 1-year guy, which is an obvious move. He never said they were doing this instead of Robertson or Ottavino.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 31, 2018 2:02:01 GMT -5
It wouldn't surprise me to see the Sox add a relief specialist, but the performance of Barnes and Brasier in the playoffs has me wondering who they'd push aside if they did acquire someone, how the new guy would fit in. Both Sox relievers did it on the biggest stage so it's hard to see how they would be rewarded with a downgrade, at least initially. If the team does get a genuine closer™ then Barnes/Brasier could assume the roles they had last year. But I'm inclined to believe the FO will be very reluctant to shell out long-term cash for what might be no more than a marginal return compared to the pitchers they already have in-house.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 31, 2018 4:58:44 GMT -5
It would be foolish to count on any of Smith, Brewer, Putnum or Gomez. It would be equally foolish to overlook all of them.
Poyner, Walden, Taylor, Lakins, Feltman and Darwinzon H. aren't exactly chopped liver either.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 31, 2018 7:16:43 GMT -5
Unfortunately they are not prime filet mignon either...
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2018 8:08:38 GMT -5
Weren’t Barnes and Braiser basically used as the 4th and 5th relievers in the postseason? They were behind, Kimbrel, Kelly and whatever starter was available. Now we want to promote them to the 1 and 2 options right out of the gate? No thank you.
This team has a 240m (est) payroll right now and 8m is in the bullpen. That’s gross. I realize money isn’t everything but they aren’t loaded with young talent there. If Dave doesn’t add 2 legitimate arms there, it’s borderline criminal. I think he will; he’s just waiting things out to get the best deals possible. No need to rush - games aren’t tomorrow.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 31, 2018 9:14:38 GMT -5
Weren’t Barnes and Braiser basically used as the 4th and 5th relievers in the postseason? They were behind, Kimbrel, Kelly and whatever starter was available. Now we want to promote them to the 1 and 2 options right out of the gate? No thank you. This team has a 240m (est) payroll right now and 8m is in the bullpen. That’s gross. I realize money isn’t everything but they aren’t loaded with young talent there. If Dave doesn’t add 2 legitimate arms there, it’s borderline criminal. I think he will; he’s just waiting things out to get the best deals possible. No need to rush - games aren’t tomorrow. Barnes and Brasier played roles as firemen in the postseason, especially in the ALDS and ALCS. Kelly did assume a more important role by the start of World Series and Kimbrel kept his closer role (though he was not great in any way, shape or form), but don’t diminish what Barnes and Brasier did. With regards to payroll, would you have rather let Eovaldi walk and signed Kelly? Besides that, The rest of the payroll was pretty much fixed, so I’m not sure how it is relevant to the bullpen discussion. As That money was allocated in a manner in prior season. I suppose you can complain about past decisions, but those past decisions lead to the 2018 World Series, so that needs to be accounted for.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 31, 2018 9:27:10 GMT -5
Unfortunately they are not prime filet mignon either... That's all star at every position logic.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2018 10:20:17 GMT -5
Weren’t Barnes and Braiser basically used as the 4th and 5th relievers in the postseason? They were behind, Kimbrel, Kelly and whatever starter was available. Now we want to promote them to the 1 and 2 options right out of the gate? No thank you. This team has a 240m (est) payroll right now and 8m is in the bullpen. That’s gross. I realize money isn’t everything but they aren’t loaded with young talent there. If Dave doesn’t add 2 legitimate arms there, it’s borderline criminal. I think he will; he’s just waiting things out to get the best deals possible. No need to rush - games aren’t tomorrow. Barnes and Brasier played roles as firemen in the postseason, especially in the ALDS and ALCS. Kelly did assume a more important role by the start of World Series and Kimbrel kept his closer role (though he was not great in any way, shape or form), but don’t diminish what Barnes and Brasier did. With regards to payroll, would you have rather let Eovaldi walk and signed Kelly? Besides that, The rest of the payroll was pretty much fixed, so I’m not sure how it is relevant to the bullpen discussion. As That money was allocated in a manner in prior season. I suppose you can complain about past decisions, but those past decisions lead to the 2018 World Series, so that needs to be accounted for. I’m not diminishing what they did; I’m being honest about it. They were at best 3rd and 4th in the pecking order and definitely 4th and 5th by the end. They don’t win without them. The team needs to replace (or retain) Kimbrel and Kelly with guys better than 2018 Barnes and Braiser. I don’t care if Barnes or Braiser end up as the top 2 guys; I care about going into the season with them having to be. As for the payroll, you’re right with where they were headed into the season. That just means they continue to spend on the bullpen and increase it even higher. They have a great team and need to take advantage. Spending this much and leaving a huge hole is dumb and cheap and taking advantage of fans and a recent WS win. They won’t do this though; I’m confident they sign at least one, maybe 2 legit guys. My issue is with the fans trying to justify them going into the season with Barnes and Braiser as their top two arms. We should expect better than that.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 31, 2018 10:32:03 GMT -5
Barnes and Brasier played roles as firemen in the postseason, especially in the ALDS and ALCS. Kelly did assume a more important role by the start of World Series and Kimbrel kept his closer role (though he was not great in any way, shape or form), but don’t diminish what Barnes and Brasier did. With regards to payroll, would you have rather let Eovaldi walk and signed Kelly? Besides that, The rest of the payroll was pretty much fixed, so I’m not sure how it is relevant to the bullpen discussion. As That money was allocated in a manner in prior season. I suppose you can complain about past decisions, but those past decisions lead to the 2018 World Series, so that needs to be accounted for. I’m not diminishing what they did; I’m being honest about it. They were at best 3rd and 4th in the pecking order and definitely 4th and 5th by the end. They don’t win without them. The team needs to replace (or retain) Kimbrel and Kelly with guys better than 2018 Barnes and Braiser. I don’t care if Barnes or Braiser end up as the top 2 guys; I care about going into the season with them having to be. As for the payroll, you’re right with where they were headed into the season. That just means they continue to spend on the bullpen and increase it even higher. They have a great team and need to take advantage. Spending this much and leaving a huge hole is dumb and cheap and taking advantage of fans and a recent WS win. They won’t do this though; I’m confident they sign at least one, maybe 2 legit guys. My issue is with the fans trying to justify them going into the season with Barnes and Braiser as their top two arms. We should expect better than that. Well, they were 4th and 5th at the end because they were using Sale and Eovaldi out of the bullpen. I don't think that's quite a useful complaint. Who has better relievers than Sale and Eovaldi? They'd probably be ahead of anyone that they could sign also.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 31, 2018 10:47:04 GMT -5
I’m not diminishing what they did; I’m being honest about it. They were at best 3rd and 4th in the pecking order and definitely 4th and 5th by the end. They don’t win without them. The team needs to replace (or retain) Kimbrel and Kelly with guys better than 2018 Barnes and Braiser. I don’t care if Barnes or Braiser end up as the top 2 guys; I care about going into the season with them having to be. As for the payroll, you’re right with where they were headed into the season. That just means they continue to spend on the bullpen and increase it even higher. They have a great team and need to take advantage. Spending this much and leaving a huge hole is dumb and cheap and taking advantage of fans and a recent WS win. They won’t do this though; I’m confident they sign at least one, maybe 2 legit guys. My issue is with the fans trying to justify them going into the season with Barnes and Braiser as their top two arms. We should expect better than that. Well, they were 4th and 5th at the end because they were using Sale and Eovaldi out of the bullpen. I don't think that's quite a useful complaint. Who has better relievers than Sale and Eovaldi? They'd probably be ahead of anyone that they could sign also. It's true and you can add Porcello to the rover list along with Price. But what are the odds they can do that to that extent again? I think it required a perfect storm for that to happen. When the Sox put the Yankees through the torture chamber in August that in effect ended the division race. The Sox had plenty of breathing room. As it was they were playing between .667 - .711 baseball throughout the season. There was no pressure. No close race that the Sox have to win at the end of September or avoid the wild card race. It allowed for Cora to totally rest his staff and allow for that flexibility where the Sox can take things easy and limit innings. In actuality the month of September was glorifed spring training. What's the odds that the circumstances of last year happen in 2019? That was a very rare everything went as swimmingly as possible all season long scenario. I just think the odds are things are closer, the Sox probably don't win 108 games and they wind up having to work their starters harder making it tougher to use them as rovers to the extent they did in the post-season. Maybe all of those things happen anyways and they're rested enough for Cora to use rovers extensively. If that happens Alex Cora is an even bigger genius than I think he is - and I already think he is.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 31, 2018 10:52:06 GMT -5
Thought I read somewhere that Nick Cafardo (yeah, I know) is saying that the Red Sox are looking for 1 year relief help so basically if he's correct (which in this rare case I do think he is) then the Sox would not be signing Robertson or Ottavino. If that's the case that would put them in Cody Allen or Kelvin Herrera territory. Cafardo said that they're looking for a 1-year guy, which is an obvious move. He never said they were doing this instead of Robertson or Ottavino. True, but he never said they were getting this one year guy in addition to the others. If they're at 235 million now, two of these guys will push them over 246 million without even leaving room for July acquisitions but more importantly signing a reliever to a multiple year deal makes it harder to get under the luxury tax limit for 2020. Guess it depends what you think their plan is financially for the 2020 season. Personally I think they sign a 1 year reliever like Allen or Herrera or maybe both or trade for a rental in July. Therefore no obligations on the books for 2020. And maybe by then Feltman, Lakins, Hernandez, or Shawaryn can help for cheap. Maybe Smith or Thornburg are main guys by then? Inexpensive bullpen.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 31, 2018 10:53:25 GMT -5
Well, they were 4th and 5th at the end because they were using Sale and Eovaldi out of the bullpen. I don't think that's quite a useful complaint. Who has better relievers than Sale and Eovaldi? They'd probably be ahead of anyone that they could sign also. It's true and you can add Porcello to the rover list along with Price. But what are the odds they can do that to that extent again? I think it required a perfect storm for that to happen. When the Sox put the Yankees through the torture chamber in August that in effect ended the division race. The Sox had plenty of breathing room. As it was they were playing between .667 - .711 baseball throughout the season. There was no pressure. No close race that the Sox have to win at the end of September or avoid the wild card race. It allowed for Cora to totally rest his staff and allow for that flexibility where the Sox can take things easy and limit innings. In actuality the month of September was glorifed spring training. What's the odds that the circumstances of last year happen in 2019? That was a very rare everything went as swimmingly as possible all season long scenario. I just think the odds are things are closer, the Sox probably don't win 108 games and they wind up having to work their starters harder making it tougher to use them as rovers to the extent they did in the post-season. Maybe all of those things happen anyways and they're rested enough for Cora to use rovers extensively. If that happens Alex Cora is an even bigger genius than I think he is - and I already think he is. I'm not saying that they shouldn't upgrade the bullpen. I'm saying that it's not fair to diminish what Brasier and Barnes are by saying they were pushed back by very good starting pitchers. Whoever they do sign will be pushed back by starters again if possible, since starters are just about always better. Even Kimbrel was skipped in favor of Sale in the last inning of game 5. When you look at Barnes' and Kimbrel's numbers, there was virtually no difference between the two. Barnes could easily be an adequate closer. But then you do need a new guy in the setup or stopper role where Barnes was.
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Post by wildcardwillie on Dec 31, 2018 10:54:24 GMT -5
Weren’t Barnes and Braiser basically used as the 4th and 5th relievers in the postseason? They were behind, Kimbrel, Kelly and whatever starter was available. Now we want to promote them to the 1 and 2 options right out of the gate? No thank you. This team has a 240m (est) payroll right now and 8m is in the bullpen. That’s gross. I realize money isn’t everything but they aren’t loaded with young talent there. If Dave doesn’t add 2 legitimate arms there, it’s borderline criminal. I think he will; he’s just waiting things out to get the best deals possible. No need to rush - games aren’t tomorrow. sometimes the game needs saving in the 7th inning...
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2018 12:59:43 GMT -5
Weren’t Barnes and Braiser basically used as the 4th and 5th relievers in the postseason? They were behind, Kimbrel, Kelly and whatever starter was available. Now we want to promote them to the 1 and 2 options right out of the gate? No thank you. This team has a 240m (est) payroll right now and 8m is in the bullpen. That’s gross. I realize money isn’t everything but they aren’t loaded with young talent there. If Dave doesn’t add 2 legitimate arms there, it’s borderline criminal. I think he will; he’s just waiting things out to get the best deals possible. No need to rush - games aren’t tomorrow. sometimes the game needs saving in the 7th inning... For sure and I love Barnes and Braiser in the 7th and 6th innings with the ability to be the 8th inning guys on occasion. Payroll constraints shouldn’t affect them from adding at a minimum one guy like Ottavino or Kimbrel. I believe, as a season ticket holder and the prices they charge, there should be one of those guys plus one more equal to or better than Barnes/Braiser.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 31, 2018 13:07:13 GMT -5
Virtually no difference between Barnes and Kimbrel? Maybe based off innings. .995 Whip vs 1.265, because one gave up over 50% more hits than the other.
Most comments about Ottavino make sense, it was only one great year. Yet everyone acts like Braiser is going to be a closer/set-up caliber pitcher next year. Call me confused on that one, because he's less proven than Ottavino.
From the start of free agency it made sense for them to sign two guys and nothing has changed. Signing a bunch of depth guys doesn't change that. A bunch of mostly unproven minor league relievers doesn't change that. You don't buy a 2 million dollar sports car and then cheap out on the tires. That's what a lot of you are acting like. We got the super car, but lets put on $59.99 walmart special tires on it. Something that could undermine the whole car.
You sign Eovaldi to form a super team. You don't sign him and then not fix a biger hole in our bullpen. That makes zero sense. Yes I believe our bullpen is a bigger need than adding another starter was. Just spend the money so you don't end up with a huge hole that requires a trade. Wanna be cheap? Sign an Allen and a guy like Wilson. That will likely cost you almost nothing, yet you add two proven veteran arms. I'd prefer Roberston and Herrera though if you wanted to limit long-term money. Yet you could do like 15 different combos with the guys still available.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 31, 2018 13:23:01 GMT -5
Virtually no difference between Barnes and Kimbrel? Maybe based off innings. .995 Whip vs 1.265, because one gave up over 50% more hits than the other. And maybe also based on K-rate, BB-rate, xFIP, SIERA, xwOBA. Barnes/Kimbrel K-rate 36.2%/38.9% BB-rate 11.7%/12.6% xFIP 2.83/3.13 SIERA 2.78/2.71 xwOBA .267/.265 The main difference between the two is that Barnes is a ground ball pitcher and Kimbrel is a fly ball pitcher. 53.0%/28.2%
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 31, 2018 13:24:37 GMT -5
Good Conundrum. To start 2019, a period of easing the SP’s back to form, the Pen will include at least two of longmen/spot starters Wright, Johnson, Velasquez. That leaves room for only 4 or 5 of Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Workman, Smith, Thornburg and, say, Robertson or Allen. Hmmmm. This doesn’t even consider the current depth which DDo has been building in which Lakins or Erasmo et alia could force their way onto the 25 man out of ST. Nice problem to have.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 31, 2018 13:48:36 GMT -5
Unfortunately they are not prime filet mignon either... That's all star at every position logic. Well, not quite. We don't need elite but highly reliable. Everybody knows that having a good bullpen is instrumental to team success. Losing Kelly (late year Kelly) and Kimbrel obviously leaves us very short. Brasier was a very welcome surprise. Hopefully we sign a top reliever and someone else emerges from the primordial morass that you posited.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 31, 2018 13:51:15 GMT -5
Virtually no difference between Barnes and Kimbrel? Maybe based off innings. .995 Whip vs 1.265, because one gave up over 50% more hits than the other. And maybe also based on K-rate, BB-rate, xFIP, SIERA, xwOBA. Barnes/Kimbrel K-rate 36.2%/38.9% BB-rate 11.7%/12.6% xFIP 2.83/3.13 SIERA 2.78/2.71 xwOBA .267/.265 The main difference between the two is that Barnes is a ground ball pitcher and Kimbrel is a fly ball pitcher. 53.0%/28.2% No the main difference is Barnes gives up a lot more hits and his career low HR rate allowed him get away with it. Barnes has never had a season with a Whip under 1, Kimbrels career average is under 1. One guy giving up 31 hits to the others 47 isn't close in basically the same innings. Nevermind the 2.3 bwar to 1.1 bwar. Also don't give me fwar for them unless you truly believe that BAbip isn't a skill and is 100% luck like fangraph thinks. Because Barnes is over .324 for his career, Kimbrel is .263 and fangraphs just sets both to .300.
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