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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 5, 2019 7:49:50 GMT -5
Fangraphs game average. I used average FB velo, not peak. Okay. I did and came away with results you apparently don't like, so that's cool. If the whole thing in the playoffs was that he was tipping his pitches, then the Astros weren't swinging at anything that wasn't a fastball. Since his success comes from his FB making pitch identification a problem, you can see how that would be a problem. My numbers are averages, not peak numbers. I posted the link, look at the numbers you don't get 98.48 peak numbers lol. Where did you get the numbers from of only 13 games of 98 or more? The guy played in 63 regular season games and 9 postseason games. Both Brooks Brothers and Baseball Refrence dispute those numbers. Even Fangraphs has him at 97.5 for the year, which given his April means he had a lot more than 13 games over 98 MPH. I don't like your results because they aren't right. I have no clue if he was tipping pitches. What I do know is his control was a much bigger issue. Its not like it was bad luck he had 8 walks in 10.2 innings or that his pitches were close. He was crazy wild and he was a lot more wild when throwing 98 or above, compared to below that. So this wasn't an extra MPH was going to get guys to swing at pitches out of the zone or something like that.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 5, 2019 8:50:27 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 5, 2019 9:24:23 GMT -5
Then the question is was his velocity down because of something physical or was it down because he had lost control so he wasn’t throwing as hard trying to regain it? It’s hard to say he can’t pitch as well at a lower velocity when we don’t know that answer. All we know is he wasn’t pitching as well at a lower velocity last year, but the lower velocity could have been due to control issues.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 5, 2019 9:25:20 GMT -5
That is the issue because Fangraphs own site doesn't agree. They do something to the data on pitch type which is where that data is pulled from and what says 97.1, yet under pitch velocity they list Kimbrel at 97.5. The 97.5 matches up with Brooks Brothers and Baseball Refrence, the 97.1 doesn't. m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#avg-pitch-velo,p,2018 Looking at this it seems for pitch type they use perceived value and not the actual value. Hence the fangraph numbers being used are the wrong ones for this type of thing. Use the 97.6 numbers and not the perceived one of 97.1 and you get he averaged 98 or better 26 times in the regular season and 5 times in the post season.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 5, 2019 11:42:10 GMT -5
Okay. So his effectiveness drops in games in which his effective (rather than out of han) velocity is below 97.5. That... doesn't allay my concern.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 5, 2019 11:56:17 GMT -5
The thing with using the Brooks Brothers website to get velocities is that sometimes they get discounted, but you can get some pretty good deals on dress shirts when that happens.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 5, 2019 12:14:45 GMT -5
And they have an in-house tailor, which is looking like a decent pickup for Deven Marrero.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 5, 2019 12:17:56 GMT -5
Read through Speier's piece and it answers a lot of questions. The careful choices they've made with the team's pitching acquistions are driven largely by analytics. I expect they've seen something in Brewer's profile that led them to get him - the same motivation.
I also think it informs us about where they might go this upcoming season. It leads me to the conclusion that Ottavino, a guy who took the time to re-invent himself, is their likely target if they do dip into the reliever market.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 5, 2019 14:31:33 GMT -5
Okay. So his effectiveness drops in games in which his effective (rather than out of han) velocity is below 97.5. That... doesn't allay my concern. Did his velocity drops coincide with lower command?
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 5, 2019 14:39:46 GMT -5
Okay. So his effectiveness drops in games in which his effective (rather than out of han) velocity is below 97.5. That... doesn't allay my concern. Did his velocity drops coincide with lower command? Not in terms of walk rate. Seems like his control is a risk to get wobbly no matter where his velocity is, but I didn't run velocity against zone %. His early-season zone #'s don't look great at first glance. Which is funny, because he really wasn't walking guys then: www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=6655&position=P&gds=&gde=&type=8
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 5, 2019 17:21:47 GMT -5
The Yankees might end up with 2 of the best bullpen options on the market.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 5, 2019 18:02:04 GMT -5
The Yankees might end up with 2 of the best bullpen options on the market. So in other words they may replace Robertson with Ottavino
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 5, 2019 18:03:25 GMT -5
The Yankees might end up with 2 of the best bullpen options on the market. They might have signed Corbin and Eovaldi as well, but then cheap out with Happ and Sabathia instead. The Yankees have been cheap for awhile now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 5, 2019 19:02:31 GMT -5
The Yankees might end up with 2 of the best bullpen options on the market. They might have signed Corbin and Eovaldi as well, but then cheap out with Happ and Sabathia instead. The Yankees have been cheap for awhile now. The Yankees have been spending money for years on the bullpen now and love spending money in this area. Them being cheap actually suggests that they're more likely to sign cheaper bullpen arms over rotation pieces also.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 5, 2019 19:34:11 GMT -5
They might have signed Corbin and Eovaldi as well, but then cheap out with Happ and Sabathia instead. The Yankees have been cheap for awhile now. The Yankees have been spending money for years on the bullpen now and love spending money in this area. Them being cheap actually suggests that they're more likely to sign cheaper bullpen arms over rotation pieces also. If they were likely destinations for the Yankees, wouldn't they have topped Philly's 2/$23 for Robertson ?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 5, 2019 19:34:39 GMT -5
The Yankees might end up with 2 of the best bullpen options on the market. If they were likely destinations for the Yankees, wouldn't they have topped Philly's 2/$23 for Robertson ? They didn't want Robertson back that badly, I imagine. There was a story about some bad blood with the playoff shares with Robertson and the Yankees this past year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 5, 2019 19:49:12 GMT -5
If they were likely destinations for the Yankees, wouldn't they have topped Philly's 2/$23 for Robertson ? They didn't want Robertson back that badly, I imagine. There was a story about some bad blood with the playoff shares with Robertson and the Yankees this past year. If they are even considering Machado, you think Robertson would be an issue ? That seems like a bit of a stretch. Of all the relievers, Robertson is the one that fits a multi year deal the best because he's historically been the most consistent year after year of all of the available relievers. You pretty much know exactly what you are getting.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 5, 2019 19:53:35 GMT -5
The Yankees might end up with 2 of the best bullpen options on the market. So in other words they may replace Robertson with Ottavino And note that they are also preparing for Betances to hit FA after 2019, so this could be taking advantage of a flush RP market now with the intention to replace him internally.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 5, 2019 20:00:12 GMT -5
They didn't want Robertson back that badly, I imagine. There was a story about some bad blood with the playoff shares with Robertson and the Yankees this past year. If they are even considering Machado, you think Robertson would be an issue ? That seems like a bit of a stretch. Of all the relievers, Robertson is the one that fits a multi year deal the best because he's historically been the most consistent year after year of all of the available relievers. You pretty much know exactly what you are getting. It all has to do with what the Yankees prefer. Both Ottavino and Britton are younger than Robertson. There's baseball reasons why they might want these two players over Robertson.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 5, 2019 20:02:52 GMT -5
I wouldn't put the Yankees or Red Sox in the top 3 most likely for any of Kimbrel, Ottavino or Britton. I don't think either the Yankees or Sox are considering multi year deals at this point but that's my opinion.
The Philles, Braves and Rockies (Ottavino) seem like the most logical destinations but there are also others.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 5, 2019 20:54:23 GMT -5
Britton to the yanks.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 5, 2019 20:58:32 GMT -5
I wouldn't put the Yankees or Red Sox in the top 3 most likely for any of Kimbrel, Ottavino or Britton. I don't think either the Yankees or Sox are considering multi year deals at this point but that's my opinion. The Philles, Braves and Rockies (Ottavino) seem like the most logical destinations but there are also others. Nailed it
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Post by bluechip on Jan 5, 2019 21:08:50 GMT -5
3years 39 million with a fourth year option and an opt out.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 5, 2019 21:11:51 GMT -5
The RP market is definitely weird. Some guys signing for a lot more than I would have thought, some for far less.
The longer this goes, I think the more likely it becomes that Kimbrel ends up back with the Sox on a 3-4 year deal. Figure a higher AAV than Britton, but if the Sox keep it to three years, with some sort of fourth year option, I'd be happy with that. No way I'd go 5 or 6 years on Kimbrel, and even four is pushing it for me, but waiting out the market may once again favor DD
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Post by bluechip on Jan 5, 2019 21:18:18 GMT -5
The RP market is definitely weird. Some guys signing for a lot more than I would have thought, some for far less. The longer this goes, I think the more likely it becomes that Kimbrel ends up back with the Sox on a 3-4 year deal. Figure a higher AAV than Britton, but if the Sox keep it to three years, with some sort of fourth year option, I'd be happy with that. No way I'd go 5 or 6 years on Kimbrel, and even four is pushing it for me, but waiting out the market may once again favor DD I’m thinking Kimbrel is looking like four years sixty million based in Britton.
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