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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 5, 2019 21:18:35 GMT -5
The longer this goes, I think the more likely it becomes that Kimbrel ends up back with the Sox on a 3-4 year deal. Figure a higher AAV than Britton, but if the Sox keep it to three years, with some sort of fourth year option, I'd be happy with that. Yuck, I'd hate that and hope you're wrong on Kimbrel to the Sox. Let someone else pay him 4/50-60 million.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 5, 2019 21:35:23 GMT -5
I'm glad the Sox stayed away from Britton for 39 million guaranteed. The reliever market is playing out as predicted, I actually think.
Guys like Soria are inking modest two year deals. Robertson got his 2 years. Britton got his 3 years. Miller got his 2 years. All of these pitchers were older, except Britton.
The way this is playing out, Kimbrel will get his 4 years, maybe a 5th year vesting option. Ottavino will get 3 years. Herrera and Allen will probably get a one year deal to bounce back.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 5, 2019 22:40:02 GMT -5
I'm glad the Sox stayed away from Britton for 39 million guaranteed. The reliever market is playing out as predicted, I actually think. Guys like Soria are inking modest two year deals. Robertson got his 2 years. Britton got his 3 years. Miller got his 2 years. All of these pitchers were older, except Britton. The way this is playing out, Kimbrel will get his 4 years, maybe a 5th year vesting option. Ottavino will get 3 years. Herrera and Allen will probably get a one year deal to bounce back. I would’ve taken Robinson at 2 or Britton at 3 over Kimbrel at anything more than one.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 5, 2019 22:44:13 GMT -5
Are we even sure Britton is good? I would hate this deal if the Red Sox gave it out. To me, that's bonkers money for a short reliever who had a 4.22 FIP last year. I just spent three pages of this forum expressing my Kimbrel skepticism, but I can't figure out why anyone would pick Britton over him. Kimbrel is at least currently good.
He had a 1.62 K/BB since the start of 2017. That's terrible! Straight-up bad! Everyone strikes out twice as many guys as they walk these days. Over the last two years, 441 pitchers have thrown at least 75 innings. Britton ranks 402nd in K-BB%, right behind Homer Bailey. Craig Kimbrel is first, and it isn't close. Of 396 pitchers who threw 40 innings, this year, Kimbrel was 19th and Britton was 354th. All this talk about Kimbrel's command driving people crazy? Hoo boy.
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Post by soxjim on Jan 5, 2019 22:59:36 GMT -5
Are we even sure Britton is good? I would hate this deal if the Red Sox gave it out. To me, that's bonkers money for a short reliever who had a 4.22 FIP last year. I just spent three pages of this forum expressing my Kimbrel skepticism, but I can't figure out why anyone would pick Britton over him. Kimbrel is at least currently good. He had a 1.62 K/BB since the start of 2017. That's terrible! Straight-up bad! Everyone strikes out twice as many guys as they walk these days. Over the last two years, 441 pitchers have thrown at least 75 innings. Britton ranks 402nd, right behind Homer Bailey. Craig Kimbrel is first, and it isn't close. Of 396 pitchers who threw 40 innings, this year, Kimbrel was 19th and Britton was 354th. All this talk about Kimbrel's command driving people crazy? Hoo boy. IMO Britton is good. Can't be sure about anything but imo yeah he's good. He got better and expect he'll overcome the injury more for next year. Not saying "who is better" but I think both are good and i have no probelm Sox didn't/don't sign either too. You're counting his injuries in your numbers which is fine but what if you think he's healthy enough now?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 6, 2019 1:56:07 GMT -5
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 6, 2019 6:43:33 GMT -5
Options running out for CK. I don't know, the Sox maybe able to get his AAV down by giving 4 years. I could see a 4/48 (even throw in a 5th yr team option). It is the perfect opportunity to front load a deal and see if you can pay lower AAV's later in contract. I would think the job for 4 yrs could be a nice incentive. You are already in for a penny, in for a pound this year. Pay him 18 mill or so for 2019.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jan 6, 2019 7:14:32 GMT -5
The reliever options are getting really slim. Kimbrell, Ottavino, Herrera, Allen and Holland. Clearly the pickings are getting really slim, as Ottavino is not a closer, more like a 7th inning guy. Herrera is coming off an injury and he likely will not be able to pitch until May/June. Allen lost the Indians' closer role last year as he was pretty bad and Holland is more of a 6th or 7th inning pitcher. The Red Sox may have to default to Kimbrell which is likely going to cost them more in terms of years and money than the likes of Robertson, Britton, Familia, Soria, etc.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 6, 2019 9:35:45 GMT -5
Options running out for CK. I don't know, the Sox maybe able to get his AAV down by giving 4 years. I could see a 4/48 (even throw in a 5th yr team option). It is the perfect opportunity to front load a deal and see if you can pay lower AAV's later in contract. I would think the job for 4 yrs could be a nice incentive. You are already in for a penny, in for a pound this year. Pay him 18 mill or so for 2019. If the Sox paid Kimbrel 18 million in 2019, then Kimbrel would be making 10 million a year for the next 3 years in a 4 year deal for 48 million. This actually may be the best idea if you put a opt out after year one if the Sox REALLY want to spend the money in 2019. Kimbrel would almost certainly opt out in 2020 unless he had a train wreck of a 2019 season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 6, 2019 10:36:07 GMT -5
I wouldn't put the Yankees or Red Sox in the top 3 most likely for any of Kimbrel, Ottavino or Britton. I don't think either the Yankees or Sox are considering multi year deals at this point but that's my opinion. The Philles, Braves and Rockies (Ottavino) seem like the most logical destinations but there are also others. Nailed it I'm really hoping I was half right.
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Post by awall on Jan 6, 2019 10:56:20 GMT -5
I wonder if Greg Holland could be brought in at a reasonable number/yrs at this point? Maybe something involving options on both sides to give him an opportunity to show that the end of last year was really where he’s at compared to his time at St Louis?
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 6, 2019 11:30:19 GMT -5
www.mlb.com/news/craig-kimbrel-could-return-to-red-sox/c-302349102It has been said that Atlanta doesn't want to go 4 years.. How about being creative with opt-outs to get him for just 1 year? 2019: $18M player opt-out 2020: $12M 2021: $12M 2022: $10M Then he can say he got 4/$52, and end up leaving after a year. Plus he'd have the security of the additional years in case of disaster. Of course in the end, I expect our bullpen to be bolstered by a Swihart trade. I also think that Lakins and Feltman are going to be in the bullpen before it gets too hot and Hernandez will bolster it later in the season. Options running out for CK. I don't know, the Sox maybe able to get his AAV down by giving 4 years. I could see a 4/48 (even throw in a 5th yr team option). It is the perfect opportunity to front load a deal and see if you can pay lower AAV's later in contract. I would think the job for 4 yrs could be a nice incentive. You are already in for a penny, in for a pound this year. Pay him 18 mill or so for 2019. If the Sox paid Kimbrel 18 million in 2019, then Kimbrel would be making 10 million a year for the next 3 years in a 4 year deal for 48 million. This actually may be the best idea if you put a opt out after year one if the Sox REALLY want to spend the money in 2019. Kimbrel would almost certainly opt out in 2020 unless he had a train wreck of a 2019 season. I wonder where you got that idea from?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 6, 2019 11:56:47 GMT -5
www.mlb.com/news/craig-kimbrel-could-return-to-red-sox/c-302349102It has been said that Atlanta doesn't want to go 4 years.. How about being creative with opt-outs to get him for just 1 year? 2019: $18M player opt-out 2020: $12M 2021: $12M 2022: $10M Then he can say he got 4/$52, and end up leaving after a year. Plus he'd have the security of the additional years in case of disaster. Of course in the end, I expect our bullpen to be bolstered by a Swihart trade. I also think that Lakins and Feltman are going to be in the bullpen before it gets too hot and Hernandez will bolster it later in the season. If the Sox paid Kimbrel 18 million in 2019, then Kimbrel would be making 10 million a year for the next 3 years in a 4 year deal for 48 million. This actually may be the best idea if you put a opt out after year one if the Sox REALLY want to spend the money in 2019. Kimbrel would almost certainly opt out in 2020 unless he had a train wreck of a 2019 season. I wonder where you got that idea from? Ohh I completely forgot you posted that. Kudos. That's probably the only scenario where I hope he comes back.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 6, 2019 12:01:02 GMT -5
www.mlb.com/news/craig-kimbrel-could-return-to-red-sox/c-302349102It has been said that Atlanta doesn't want to go 4 years.. How about being creative with opt-outs to get him for just 1 year? 2019: $18M player opt-out 2020: $12M 2021: $12M 2022: $10M Then he can say he got 4/$52, and end up leaving after a year. Plus he'd have the security of the additional years in case of disaster. Of course in the end, I expect our bullpen to be bolstered by a Swihart trade. I also think that Lakins and Feltman are going to be in the bullpen before it gets too hot and Hernandez will bolster it later in the season. If the Sox paid Kimbrel 18 million in 2019, then Kimbrel would be making 10 million a year for the next 3 years in a 4 year deal for 48 million. This actually may be the best idea if you put a opt out after year one if the Sox REALLY want to spend the money in 2019. Kimbrel would almost certainly opt out in 2020 unless he had a train wreck of a 2019 season. I wonder where you got that idea from? I didn't see it....and props to you for bringing it up first. Nice plan !!!
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Post by sparkygian on Jan 6, 2019 12:10:02 GMT -5
Sox had Houston on the ropes late in game four of '17 ADS against Houston, and were building momentum for possibly upsetting Houston if they had won that game. Instead Kimbrel came in and promptly gave up the tie-breaking homer which, of course, would result in Houston going on to win the '17 W.Series. That was the year that Kimbrel pitched like the super elite closer he used to be in Atlanta. Might have even been his best season ever. Still he choked against Houston. I don't recall his velocity being an issue in that game, or tipping his pitches. Every pitcher is human, and so it's not right to call him a choker just cause of that game. However his '18 playoffs performance had every Sox fan holding their breath and probably swearing at him cause of his heart attack approach to finishing games. M. Rivera was a legend cause he was so reliable in the biggest of games. Chapman performed superbly during his World Series winning run with the Cubs.
So while Kimbrel's right in expecting to be paid like the best because his career regular season totals are the best of everyone in the game right now, however it's his unreliability in playoff games that worries me the most (whether it's pitch-tipping, or velocity dipping, or loss of command), and it's the main reason why his demands for a long-term contract at top dollar really concerns me. He's on the wrong side of 30, so no one would be surprised to see him continue to decline from his peak in '17, when he still couldn't beat Houston, and giving him a huge, long-term contract right now is just plain risky, imo., and would also really constrain Boston from the salary flexibility to re-sign other key players over next couple of years. Even if he doesn't continue to decline the dollar amount and length of contract he's demanding would make him very hard to be used as trade bait at future trade deadlines if Sox end up being out of contention. Contending teams are frequently willing to give up top prospects for an elite reliever at trade deadlines, and even if Kimbrel remains elite I doubt he would be tradeable because of his age and huge contract.
I really was hoping that DD would only give up a two or three year contract to whoever he signed this offseason to be the team's closer, as none of the available free-agent options this offseason are young enough to warrant a long-term contract for a closer role.
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Post by soxjim on Jan 6, 2019 13:06:20 GMT -5
Sox had Houston on the ropes late in game four of '17 ADS against Houston, and were building momentum for possibly upsetting Houston if they had won that game. Instead Kimbrel came in and promptly gave up the tie-breaking homer which, of course, would result in Houston going on to win the '17 W.Series. That was the year that Kimbrel pitched like the super elite closer he used to be in Atlanta. Might have even been his best season ever. Still he choked against Houston. I don't recall his velocity being an issue in that game, or tipping his pitches. Every pitcher is human, and so it's not right to call him a choker just cause of that game. However his '18 playoffs performance had every Sox fan holding their breath and probably swearing at him cause of his heart attack approach to finishing games. M. Rivera was a legend cause he was so reliable in the biggest of games. Chapman performed superbly during his World Series winning run with the Cubs. So while Kimbrel's right in expecting to be paid like the best because his career regular season totals are the best of everyone in the game right now, however it's his unreliability in playoff games that worries me the most (whether it's pitch-tipping, or velocity dipping, or loss of command), and it's the main reason why his demands for a long-term contract at top dollar really concerns me. He's on the wrong side of 30, so no one would be surprised to see him continue to decline from his peak in '17, when he still couldn't beat Houston, and giving him a huge, long-term contract right now is just plain risky, imo., and would also really constrain Boston from the salary flexibility to re-sign other key players over next couple of years. Even if he doesn't continue to decline the dollar amount and length of contract he's demanding would make him very hard to be used as trade bait at future trade deadlines if Sox end up being out of contention. Contending teams are frequently willing to give up top prospects for an elite reliever at trade deadlines, and even if Kimbrel remains elite I doubt he would be tradeable because of his age and huge contract. I really was hoping that DD would only give up a two or three year contract to whoever he signed this offseason to be the team's closer, as none of the available free-agent options this offseason are young enough to warrant a long-term contract for a closer role. I get the feeling he feels pressure a lot too but it could have a lot to do with I just hate pitchers with poor control and at times he has it. He was pretty good in playoffs before this season- he only let up 2 runs in 10 innings though he might have allowed others to score like he did in game 4 of 2017. But for that game you are referring - he allowed the tie breaking run to score (not the game winning HR) along with another run in that 8th inning but it was Sale's runner. So he didn't let up the tie breaking HR when he came in the 8th inning after score was tied. I just think the manager put him in a poor spot which maybe you're right- in that Kimbrel seems to do much better coming in in clean innings not with men on base. IMO this was a Farrell blunder though I understand if you don't like Kimbrel; it;s sort of an indictment that he is "diva-like" -- but Farrell should have brought in Addison Reed to start the 8th inning. I think Kimbrel is good -though I'm reluctant to give him 4 even as prescribed above. I'd like to have him but content not to have him too. I think at least in next two years he'll still be capable of getting tough outs at a consistent level.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 6, 2019 14:07:15 GMT -5
I wonder if Greg Holland could be brought in at a reasonable number/yrs at this point? Maybe something involving options on both sides to give him an opportunity to show that the end of last year was really where he’s at compared to his time at St Louis? Do you mean as the closer or one more arm? What I'm trying to understand is why he or any other replacement level reliever should get money from a team that's trying to keep salary below that second threshold. The glow that still seems to radiate from those faded arms might just be from all the Ben-Gay. The Sox have much better options in-house.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 6, 2019 15:49:42 GMT -5
I'm glad the Sox stayed away from Britton for 39 million guaranteed. The reliever market is playing out as predicted, I actually think. Guys like Soria are inking modest two year deals. Robertson got his 2 years. Britton got his 3 years. Miller got his 2 years. All of these pitchers were older, except Britton. The way this is playing out, Kimbrel will get his 4 years, maybe a 5th year vesting option. Ottavino will get 3 years. Herrera and Allen will probably get a one year deal to bounce back. I would’ve taken Robinson at 2 or Britton at 3 over Kimbrel at anything more than one. I have to ask why you'd want Britton on that contract? This new version of Britton gives up more hits, walks a ton of guys and strikeout a lot less guys than Kimbrel. I can't for the life of me understand how your ok with 3 years of Britton, but only want one year of Kimbrel. I can understand Robertson, but not Britton. Only thing I can think of is your thinking of the old Britton, but we haven't seen that guy since 2016. Kimbrel was full on dominant for the last 1 and 2/3 of a season only imploding the last 1/3 of last season. It's not like Britton was good in the playoffs 5 innings, 5 hits, 3 ERs, 2 BB, 4 sttikeouts, and gave up 2 HRs.
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Post by soxjim on Jan 6, 2019 16:53:17 GMT -5
I would’ve taken Robinson at 2 or Britton at 3 over Kimbrel at anything more than one. I have to ask why you'd want Britton on that contract? This new version of Britton gives up more hits, walks a ton of guys and strikeout a lot less guys than Kimbrel. I can't for the life of me understand how your ok with 3 years of Britton, but only want one year of Kimbrel. I can understand Robertson, but not Britton. Only thing I can think of is your thinking of the old Britton, but we haven't seen that guy since 2016. Kimbrel was full on dominant for the last 1 and 2/3 of a season only imploding the last 1/3 of last season. It's not like Britton was good in the playoffs 5 innings, 5 hits, 3 ERs, 2 BB, 4 sttikeouts, and gave up 2 HRs. I like them both for 3 years. One or the other. I don't care "who is better" other than I like them both. I look at Britton's last 17 (17.66 innings) regular season games-- suppose someone were to believe that is now the "real" Britton? In his last 17 reg season games he let up just 2 runs with only one home run and had a WHIP under .800.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 6, 2019 18:13:12 GMT -5
Britton has one of the best ground ball rates in baseball. That's his game.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 6, 2019 18:27:48 GMT -5
Britton has one of the best ground ball rates in baseball. That's his game. I hope every batter he faces hits ground balls to 3B.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 6, 2019 18:39:34 GMT -5
Britton has one of the best ground ball rates in baseball. That's his game. I hope every batter he faces hits ground balls to 3B. The Yankees might sign Machado to play SS or 3B (depending on where Tulo plays until Didi comes back). Might move Andujar to first base. That's what I'd do. Be great if that doesn't happen though.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jan 6, 2019 18:46:16 GMT -5
I don’t want to see us spend big on a reliever, i’d rather see them try and make it work without doing it first and acquire one through a trade if necessary. Getting under the cap after next year will be big and we don’t need relievers eating up valuable space.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 6, 2019 19:09:28 GMT -5
I don’t want to see us spend big on a reliever, i’d rather see them try and make it work without doing it first and acquire one through a trade if necessary. Getting under the cap after next year will be big and we don’t need relievers eating up valuable space. I don’t understand why people are so set on getting under the cap to save the owners money. I just don’t get the logic; they are making money they should keep spending in good teams; if they get to a point where the team isn’t good then I’d expect them to tear down payroll. I don’t expect them to create a bad/mediocre team by tearing down payroll.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 6, 2019 19:29:06 GMT -5
Britton has one of the best ground ball rates in baseball. That's his game. I hope every batter he faces hits ground balls to 3B. If he does get a ton of grounders to 3b that might not be much of an issue. If the Yanks do land Machado he's a really good 3b. Andujar probably winds up becoming the DH, if not the 1b. It means that Brett Gardner becomes more of a 4th OF, which is what he should be at this point anyways. And it would make Clint Frazier trade bait, which is what he ultimately will wind up being anyways.
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