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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 11, 2019 18:44:33 GMT -5
Ok they have let the market play out. Most of the big deals have been signed outside of two guys. Still there are a bunch of options. Yet they need to start doing something! Even if the plan is to wait out Kimbrel we could still use another bullpen arm. So why not sign a guy and have some insurance in case of no Kimbrel? I'm targeting Allen and Wilson. Yet seeing how Holland did for the Nationals late in the year was impressive. So he's an option on what should be a low one year deal. I imagine that everyone left is being held up by one or two guys. I bet the Red Sox and Kimbrel are the ones holding everything up. The Sox are waiting for Kimbrel to go find something better than what the Red Sox want to pay him and he's having trouble finding it and they probably have a side deal with Ottavino that is contingent on Kimbrel figuring out what he's going to do. I find it hard to believe a player would make a side deal with a team to be their back up plan. Nothing about that makes sense to me for the player.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 11, 2019 23:35:54 GMT -5
What is it you don't understand, or is this just another useless argument for the sake of arguing. They drafted one of their more valuable players in the first round. That's what they risk losing over and over again. And stop with the stupid non-sequitur and the red herrings. I'm not talking about the Astros, you are. I'm keeping it real simple: the team wants to stay under the higher threshold so they don't lose their shot at first round draft choices. Is that clear enough? I think we can all agree that turning the 7th pick into the 17th pick would be a massive price to pay, though of course even the 7th pick can bust. But turning the 23rd-27th pick into the 33rd-37th pick is not nearly as big a cost, and there are circumstances in which it would be a reasonable cost. And presumably the money spent going over the limit would likely make our pick closer to 27 than 7. Is that clear enough? First of all, lets stop muddling the upcoming season with forecasts beyond that. We've already figured out that they will in all likelihood be over this year and that they will lose that draft position. This is about what comes after. There's a tacit assumption in your thinking that the FO most likely can't accept as a given. Dombrowski has already made it clear that they won't be re-signing everyone, that they can't afford to. So the idea that they just project a low first round pick forever doesn't hold water after this season. They'll be bleeding at least a little talent, and maybe more than a little. I don't see how they can project a guaranteed low draft choice.
This is not about this coming season, it's about a future where they have to plan for a less talented club and how to restock. As I and others have pointed out, you do that with young players or you bleed more cash in the dead end game of big contracts for players who are on the downside. Not all of those players go bust, but enough of them do to eat big holes in payrolls. More clarity...
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 12, 2019 8:20:22 GMT -5
I think we can all agree that turning the 7th pick into the 17th pick would be a massive price to pay, though of course even the 7th pick can bust. But turning the 23rd-27th pick into the 33rd-37th pick is not nearly as big a cost, and there are circumstances in which it would be a reasonable cost. And presumably the money spent going over the limit would likely make our pick closer to 27 than 7. Is that clear enough? First of all, lets stop muddling the upcoming season with forecasts beyond that. We've already figured out that they will in all likelihood be over this year and that they will lose that draft position. This is about what comes after. There's a tacit assumption in your thinking that the FO most likely can't accept as a given. Dombrowski has already made it clear that they won't be re-signing everyone, that they can't afford to. So the idea that they just project a low first round pick forever doesn't hold water after this season. They'll be bleeding at least a little talent, and maybe more than a little. I don't see how they can project a guaranteed low draft choice.
This is not about this coming season, it's about a future where they have to plan for a less talented club and how to restock. As I and others have pointed out, you do that with young players or you bleed more cash in the dead end game of big contracts for players who are on the downside. Not all of those players go bust, but enough of them do to eat big holes in payrolls. More clarity...
I think the free agency for Sale, Bradley, Porcello and Xander are going to be fascinating. Bradley may actually end up being the one they resign despite the assumption he’s gone. Of course it’s way too early to tell as he’s got 2 years left but he could be a 3 year deal in the 14m per range considering his age and the fact Cain got 5/80 much younger. Even if they were same age, I’d have to imagine he was a lot more valued around the league than JBJ. The way things are Porcello may be cheaper to resign than he is currently. Xander and Sale I have no clue what to expect as so much will depend on their 2019 seasons. You probably won’t keep everyone because you very rarely do and the assumption is the prices will be really high. The market has been giving much more reasonable contracts though due to so many teams tanking when not competitive and others being more fiscally responsible. I wouldn’t assume a ton of talent is leaving without being replaced and I certainly wouldn’t hurt this years team on the guess that will happen.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 12, 2019 9:07:36 GMT -5
I imagine that everyone left is being held up by one or two guys. I bet the Red Sox and Kimbrel are the ones holding everything up. The Sox are waiting for Kimbrel to go find something better than what the Red Sox want to pay him and he's having trouble finding it and they probably have a side deal with Ottavino that is contingent on Kimbrel figuring out what he's going to do. I find it hard to believe a player would make a side deal with a team to be their back up plan. Nothing about that makes sense to me for the player. OK, then I guess they all already signed then. I made a suggestion of what might be going on and you know that it's not true? Why not? Maybe Ottavino really wants to close for the best team in baseball and they have a deal that is contingent on them not re-signing Kimbrel. And I'm sure there is a deadline for it. So hard to believe. What do you think these players and agents do all winter? Sign the first deal that comes along?
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Post by floridaredsox on Jan 12, 2019 9:21:05 GMT -5
I would sign Greg Holland and Hunter Strickland. Also offering a non-roster Spring training invite to Darwinzon Hernandez & Durbin Feltman.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 12, 2019 10:39:19 GMT -5
I find it hard to believe a player would make a side deal with a team to be their back up plan. Nothing about that makes sense to me for the player. OK, then I guess they all already signed then. I made a suggestion of what might be going on and you know that it's not true? Why not? Maybe Ottavino really wants to close for the best team in baseball and they have a deal that is contingent on them not re-signing Kimbrel. And I'm sure there is a deadline for it. So hard to believe. What do you think these players and agents do all winter? Sign the first deal that comes along? I never said I knew anything. I just highly doubt Ottavino wants to play for the Red Sox, who he’s apparently a back up option for (in your scenario) so badly that he’s willing to let the rest of the teams spend their money while he waits to see if the Red Sox resign Kimbrel. No players don’t take the first contract offered, yes players have preferences where to play, but no I don’t think players agree to terms with a team as a fall back to someone else and just wait for that team. They may know what they can sign Ottavino for and may be willing to pay that if Kimbrel doesn’t work out but that’s not the same thing as a side deal. Ottavino isn’t going to let the market dry up while waiting for the Red Sox. If he gets a good deal elsewhere he will sign.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 12, 2019 11:04:29 GMT -5
OK, then I guess they all already signed then. I made a suggestion of what might be going on and you know that it's not true? Why not? Maybe Ottavino really wants to close for the best team in baseball and they have a deal that is contingent on them not re-signing Kimbrel. And I'm sure there is a deadline for it. So hard to believe. What do you think these players and agents do all winter? Sign the first deal that comes along? I never said I knew anything. I just highly doubt Ottavino wants to play for the Red Sox, who he’s apparently a back up option for (in your scenario) so badly that he’s willing to let the rest of the teams spend their money while he waits to see if the Red Sox resign Kimbrel. No players don’t take the first contract offered, yes players have preferences where to play, but no I don’t think players agree to terms with a team as a fall back to someone else and just wait for that team. They may know what they can sign Ottavino for and may be willing to pay that if Kimbrel doesn’t work out but that’s not the same thing as a side deal. Ottavino isn’t going to let the market dry up while waiting for the Red Sox. If he gets a good deal elsewhere he will sign. Right, that's why I said I'm sure there are deadlines for these things.
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Post by patford on Jan 12, 2019 13:48:18 GMT -5
OK, then I guess they all already signed then. I made a suggestion of what might be going on and you know that it's not true? Why not? Maybe Ottavino really wants to close for the best team in baseball and they have a deal that is contingent on them not re-signing Kimbrel. And I'm sure there is a deadline for it. So hard to believe. What do you think these players and agents do all winter? Sign the first deal that comes along? I never said I knew anything. I just highly doubt Ottavino wants to play for the Red Sox, who he’s apparently a back up option for (in your scenario) so badly that he’s willing to let the rest of the teams spend their money while he waits to see if the Red Sox resign Kimbrel. No players don’t take the first contract offered, yes players have preferences where to play, but no I don’t think players agree to terms with a team as a fall back to someone else and just wait for that team. They may know what they can sign Ottavino for and may be willing to pay that if Kimbrel doesn’t work out but that’s not the same thing as a side deal. Ottavino isn’t going to let the market dry up while waiting for the Red Sox. If he gets a good deal elsewhere he will sign. My hunch is for the Sox, Kimbrel is plan "B" if they can't sign Ottavino.
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Post by soxjim on Jan 12, 2019 14:05:43 GMT -5
My 1st preference right now would be a 1 year deal with Kimbrel. Next year's FA market for relievers isn't very good from what I understand so Kimbrel would get another shot and I think the Sox are going to reset in 2020. Obviously Kimbrel doesn't want that 1 year as of now. But the market seems to be telling him that he's not worth what he wants. He's got to believe he has several years left of top quality pitching. He's the one I'd wait for and see what I can do swoop him up if no one else is going to give him longer extended deals. SO I wouldn't look to sign anyone else until Kimbrel is resolved. I don't know much about Ottavino thus i'm only looking at Kimbrel.
I wouldn't bother with any of the others at this point.
I've read many on here like Lakins and rave about Feltman for 2019 at some point and potentially long term with Feltman as a closer, and love Hernandez (not sure if he is 2019 or 2020). are all 3 going to fail this year and/or next? Got to have some trust in them based on what we read and see.
The Sox can afford to be patient. If they lose him just go down the list to the next guy. I believe they are going to reset in 2020. Should be able find one that is good value or overpay for one year -- or just trade for one earlier/ or later. Don't waste money on 6th/7thinning types.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 12, 2019 16:57:08 GMT -5
My 1st preference right now would be a 1 year deal with Kimbrel. Next year's FA market for relievers isn't very good from what I understand so Kimbrel would get another shot and I think the Sox are going to reset in 2020. Obviously Kimbrel doesn't want that 1 year as of now. But the market seems to be telling him that he's not worth what he wants. He's got to believe he has several years left of top quality pitching. He's the one I'd wait for and see what I can do swoop him up if no one else is going to give him longer extended deals. SO I wouldn't look to sign anyone else until Kimbrel is resolved. I don't know much about Ottavino thus i'm only looking at Kimbrel. I wouldn't bother with any of the others at this point. I've read many on here like Lakins and rave about Feltman for 2019 at some point and potentially long term with Feltman as a closer, and love Hernandez (not sure if he is 2019 or 2020). are all 3 going to fail this year and/or next? Got to have some trust in them based on what we read and see. The Sox can afford to be patient. If they lose him just go down the list to the next guy. I believe they are going to reset in 2020. Should be able find one that is good value or overpay for one year -- or just trade for one earlier/ or later. Don't waste money on 6th/7thinning types. Agree that Kimbrel on a one year is the best solution for a 2019 repeat and 2020 reset. Agree also on not signing more 6th - 7th inning guys. Would rather stick with Hembree, Workman who have shown they can be better than that. This Pen is sooo full of promising unknowns who could emerge even as soon as ST, like Lakins, Feltman, Poyner, Taylor, Thornburg, Smith, Putnam, Brewer, Shawaryn, Houck. Although hoping for all or most of them to shine is naive, it seems unlikely that NONE of them show up. That would be the height of cynicism. There is reason for DDo, Cora and the FO to feel comfortable with their situation
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 12, 2019 17:18:03 GMT -5
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Jan 12, 2019 17:49:33 GMT -5
It could make sense for Kimbrel since there will be fewer big relievers in free agency next year plus I don't believe there will be draft pick attached to signing him as the Sox can't offer the QO again (at least I don't believe the can under the last CBA).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 12, 2019 18:01:20 GMT -5
I never said I knew anything. I just highly doubt Ottavino wants to play for the Red Sox, who he’s apparently a back up option for (in your scenario) so badly that he’s willing to let the rest of the teams spend their money while he waits to see if the Red Sox resign Kimbrel. No players don’t take the first contract offered, yes players have preferences where to play, but no I don’t think players agree to terms with a team as a fall back to someone else and just wait for that team. They may know what they can sign Ottavino for and may be willing to pay that if Kimbrel doesn’t work out but that’s not the same thing as a side deal. Ottavino isn’t going to let the market dry up while waiting for the Red Sox. If he gets a good deal elsewhere he will sign. My hunch is for the Sox, Kimbrel is plan "B" if they can't sign Ottavino. That goes against all reports and if Ottavino is their top target why don't they just sign him? The market is now set and Ottavino isn't like Kimbrel that had a massive 6 years 100 million asking price at first.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 12, 2019 18:14:33 GMT -5
If Britton can get 3 years 39 million with an option year then Kimbrel needs a new agent if he takes a one year deal unless its massive like 20 million or more.
A 3-4 year deal with an opt out after the first year makes sense, but a straight one year deal makes very little sense.
Yea less relievers next year, but most of the top revenue teams have filled their needs also.
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Post by soxjim on Jan 12, 2019 20:41:52 GMT -5
If Britton can get 3 years 39 million with an option year then Kimbrel needs a new agent if he takes a one year deal unless its massive like 20 million or more. A 3-4 year deal with an opt out after the first year makes sense, but a straight one year deal makes very little sense. Yea less relievers next year, but most of the top revenue teams have filled their needs also. If The Red SOx don't sign him then make a prediction for a team or two that will sign him to a three year deal and make a prediction for how much. How much you think someone like the Braves/Angels/Cards/Brewers/Twins/Rays will sign him for? Three years at $45m? IS that about right and are those the teams?
Secondly, do you think Kimbrel will be very good in 2020 and 2021?
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Post by jchang on Jan 12, 2019 23:17:33 GMT -5
At this point, I would offer Kimbrel 3/42-45 with player opt out each year, giving him the opportunity to find a big payday each of the next two years
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Post by telson13 on Jan 13, 2019 1:44:58 GMT -5
At this point, I would offer Kimbrel 3/42-45 with player opt out each year, giving him the opportunity to find a big payday each of the next two years I don’t think he’d take that sort of AAV, but I like the option idea. Combine that with jimed’s, and maybe you’ve got a deal he’d take. Say, $18M-$13M-$11M-$10M with opt-outs each year? The declining salaries make it more likely he’ll opt out each year, which is kinda what the Sox want anyway. But they can handle the big year this year, and after that it gets increasingly more feasible that, if for some reason he stays, the cost gets less onerous. Maybe include some team protection similar to the Lackey deal. Odds are if he opts out, they got value. If he doesn’t, it’s likely they will the next year. Or they could do a shorter version of the Kikuchi deal. I’d absolutely like Kimbrel back, but only if it’s very cost-effective. Idk how likely that is in light of Britton’s and Kelly’s deals.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 13, 2019 4:13:38 GMT -5
OK, then I guess they all already signed then. I made a suggestion of what might be going on and you know that it's not true? Why not? Maybe Ottavino really wants to close for the best team in baseball and they have a deal that is contingent on them not re-signing Kimbrel. And I'm sure there is a deadline for it. So hard to believe. What do you think these players and agents do all winter? Sign the first deal that comes along? I never said I knew anything. I just highly doubt Ottavino wants to play for the Red Sox, who he’s apparently a back up option for (in your scenario) so badly that he’s willing to let the rest of the teams spend their money while he waits to see if the Red Sox resign Kimbrel. No players don’t take the first contract offered, yes players have preferences where to play, but no I don’t think players agree to terms with a team as a fall back to someone else and just wait for that team. They may know what they can sign Ottavino for and may be willing to pay that if Kimbrel doesn’t work out but that’s not the same thing as a side deal. Ottavino isn’t going to let the market dry up while waiting for the Red Sox. If he gets a good deal elsewhere he will sign. The assumption is that Ottavino has a plan B, too. You do realize that most teams can fit a guy as good as Ottavino into their setup crew without breaking a sweat, right?
So the Sox have the framework of a deal with Ottavino to be their closer, pending on Kimbrel not accepting their one-year offer. Ottavino has the framework of a deal to join some team as a setup guy, but he obviously would rather close for the Sox. The other team likes Ottavino enough to bump their equivalent of Brandon Workman out of a job. They're not concerned about losing him because he's a luxury. They think he'll provide good bang for the buck and can afford him.
Alternately, they're one of the teams with an offer to Kimbrel. Ottavino has already told them he'd rather close for the Sox than for them. If they get Kimbrel, Ottavino goes to the Sox. If Kimbrel goes to the Sox, they get Ottavino. If Kimbrel goes somewhere else, they get neither.
But again, presumably most of the teams interested in Kimbrel are upgrading an adequate closer, so being shut out of both guys is probably an acceptable option -- otherwise, there would be real pressure for someone to give Kimbrel what he wants.
BTW, I have a regression model that pegs Kimbel's AAV at $19M.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 13, 2019 4:59:15 GMT -5
I never said I knew anything. I just highly doubt Ottavino wants to play for the Red Sox, who he’s apparently a back up option for (in your scenario) so badly that he’s willing to let the rest of the teams spend their money while he waits to see if the Red Sox resign Kimbrel. No players don’t take the first contract offered, yes players have preferences where to play, but no I don’t think players agree to terms with a team as a fall back to someone else and just wait for that team. They may know what they can sign Ottavino for and may be willing to pay that if Kimbrel doesn’t work out but that’s not the same thing as a side deal. Ottavino isn’t going to let the market dry up while waiting for the Red Sox. If he gets a good deal elsewhere he will sign. The assumption is that Ottavino has a plan B, too. You do realize that most teams can fit a guy as good as Ottavino into their setup crew without breaking a sweat, right? Ottavino has a ton of other teams and options. The New York Yankees leading the headlines as main suitors for him, whether he's a luxury to them or not.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 13, 2019 8:40:00 GMT -5
At this point, I would offer Kimbrel 3/42-45 with player opt out each year, giving him the opportunity to find a big payday each of the next two years Kimbrel is the sort of player I'd have no interest in opt-outs for. You're on the hook for $45M if he's bad, and there's basically zero chance he has the upside in one year to make that worthwhile. I'm already worried about the risk on Kimbrel - lopping off the reward to save a couple million in AAV isn't something I'd be interested in.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 14, 2019 2:47:40 GMT -5
The assumption is that Ottavino has a plan B, too. You do realize that most teams can fit a guy as good as Ottavino into their setup crew without breaking a sweat, right? Ottavino has a ton of other teams and options. The New York Yankees leading the headlines as main suitors for him, whether he's a luxury to them or not. Precisely. That he hasn't signed with ones of those teams yet (when the next seven relievers on the board have signed) would be puzzling in the extreme ... if I hadn't explained it nicely.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 14, 2019 2:54:31 GMT -5
At this point, I would offer Kimbrel 3/42-45 with player opt out each year, giving him the opportunity to find a big payday each of the next two years Kimbrel is the sort of player I'd have no interest in opt-outs for. You're on the hook for $45M if he's bad, and there's basically zero chance he has the upside in one year to make that worthwhile. I'm already worried about the risk on Kimbrel - lopping off the reward to save a couple million in AAV isn't something I'd be interested in. There's also the fact that he almost certainly has at least one offer of 3/$55M. I think the reason he hasn't signed is that no one has gone to four years yet, but three is easy for teams to commit to, and his AAV is easy to project.
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Post by soxjim on Jan 14, 2019 23:20:25 GMT -5
Kimbrel is the sort of player I'd have no interest in opt-outs for. You're on the hook for $45M if he's bad, and there's basically zero chance he has the upside in one year to make that worthwhile. I'm already worried about the risk on Kimbrel - lopping off the reward to save a couple million in AAV isn't something I'd be interested in. There's also the fact that he almost certainly has at least one offer of 3/$55M. I think the reason he hasn't signed is that no one has gone to four years yet, but three is easy for teams to commit to, and his AAV is easy to project. If some team is going to give him 3/$55m - I wish them well and Sox obviously move on. He ought to take that and run. Kiley McDaniel from Fangraphs predicted 4 years $56m not that that matters.
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Post by dirtdog on Jan 15, 2019 2:07:30 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 15, 2019 17:47:41 GMT -5
So much for there being no market for Kimbrel. Phillies are very much still in the Kimbrel negotiations, even after signing David Robertson.
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