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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 15, 2019 18:26:05 GMT -5
So much for there being no market for Kimbrel. Phillies are very much still in the Kimbrel negotiations, even after signing David Robertson. Guess it's not overly shocking. Short-term I'd much rather have Harper and Machado if they're going to spend that kind of money but they probably don't want to tie up that much money long-term. With Keuchel I think they'll be paying for past performance and Kimbrel long-term is hardly the safest bet. But with the Phillies still involved there's no way Kimbrel returns to the Red Sox. He'd get a 3 or 4 year deal for around $15 million/year. The Red Sox aren't going there. I'd guess the Sox sign Brad Brach although Cody Allen is a possibility. If they're going to do that, then perhaps they should look at Greg Holland and hope that his Washington turnaround was because he was rusty in St. Louis.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 15, 2019 19:05:33 GMT -5
I keep hearing the Phillies want to go wild and so far almost nothing. It's like they'll go wild if they get good deals. They could sign all three today rather easily. So why haven't they?
Is any team really going to beat 10 years 300 million?
How is it a fact Kimbrel has 3 years 55 million on the table? That is a really good offer if he really has it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 15, 2019 21:24:59 GMT -5
I keep hearing the Phillies want to go wild and so far almost nothing. It's like they'll go wild if they get good deals. They could sign all three today rather easily. So why haven't they? Is any team really going to beat 10 years 300 million? How is it a fact Kimbrel has 3 years 55 million on the table? That is a really good offer if he really has it. Why spend 700 million if you want all 3 now, if you can get 550 million for all three if they continue to wait them out?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 15, 2019 21:52:03 GMT -5
I keep hearing the Phillies want to go wild and so far almost nothing. It's like they'll go wild if they get good deals. They could sign all three today rather easily. So why haven't they? Is any team really going to beat 10 years 300 million? How is it a fact Kimbrel has 3 years 55 million on the table? That is a really good offer if he really has it. Why spend 700 million if you want all 3 now, if you can get 550 million for all three if they continue to wait them out? Let's hope you just made up numbers lol. Nothing wrong with it, if it works. Like I said it's like they want them, but only on a good deal. That doesn't always work though. Hence how big of a threat are they to Kimbrel? We'll see.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 15, 2019 23:14:03 GMT -5
I do believe the Phillies will look around and see that the Braves won't go high on the annual $ and that the Sox really don't want to go multiple years with Kimbrel, so I think they'll wait until it's something like 4 years $55 million or maybe even 3 years $45 million or something like that and then sign him.
I do believe like everybody else they're waiting for Kimbrel's price to drop.
So if that is the case and the Sox and Kimbrel don't have a reunion, then who would you prefer to see the Sox pick up? I can't imagine that they'll go into the season having not picked anybody up.
So the three prime candidates in alphabetical order would be Cody Allen, Brad Brach, and Greg Holland. Can't imagine the Sox would want a guy in the clubhouse like Bud Norris (and it's not like he's that good a pitcher anyways.
So what's the preference? For the Sox? Or your own?
I think the Sox would prefer a 1 year deal. A guy like Brach probably could get a 2 year deal and he doesn't have a ton of closing experience. If the Sox got him, I'd anticipate Barnes moving to the closer role and Brach taking Barnes role, but if he does get a 2 year $14 million deal or something like that I think the Sox look at either Allen or Holland.
Allen has been a solid closer up until 2018 when his control declined and the amount of HRs increased, something that doesn't work well at Yankee Stadium. His velocity was down, too. Is this something the Sox can fix? Or was it just a bad year, a hidden injury?
Holland was awful with the Cards and looked more like his old self with the Nats although he wasn't as good as his stats looked (nor was he as bad with the Cards as his stats looked). His control has never been that great, but when he was a great pitcher with KC he could keep the walks around 3 - 3.5 per 9 innings. Now he's more 4 - 4.5 per 9 innings, which is Kimbrel like, but with less Ks and a lot more hits allowed mixed in.
I'm not sure who'd the Sox would pick if the choice was Allen or Holland. Holland would have a higher ceiling while Allen might offer more consistency?
I'd prefer the Sox go for it with Holland at this point, but I say it without a ton of enthusiasm.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 15, 2019 23:57:36 GMT -5
Why spend 700 million if you want all 3 now, if you can get 550 million for all three if they continue to wait them out? Let's hope you just made up numbers lol. Nothing wrong with it, if it works. Like I said it's like they want them, but only on a good deal. That doesn't always work though. Hence how big of a threat are they to Kimbrel? We'll see. The numbers were totally arbitrary and my math could have been a little off lol. Still the point remains, if the Phillies wait like every other team in MLB wants to do now in free agency and save 50-100 million dollars, then why not? This savings could then go to a Moustakas after if they want after maybe.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 16, 2019 0:00:30 GMT -5
I think Allen is the best choice, but nothing is clear cut beyond Kimbrel and Ottavino.
I would prefer a guy that I brought up in the trade thread in Tony Watson if Allen gets signed.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 16, 2019 7:16:20 GMT -5
So weird that you guys are just considering everything over when they haven't signed yet. Have you considered that rumors don't always work out?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 16, 2019 10:02:23 GMT -5
So weird that you guys are just considering everything over when they haven't signed yet. Have you considered that rumors don't always work out? Rumors don't always work out, but the Phillies owner said the Phillies plan on spending stupid money and it would be surprising to see them lock up two long-term contracts. Odds are they get one of Harper or Machado. It's not hard to see them grabbing Kimbrel, even with Robertson around. Robertson doesn't have to be their closer. If you were the Phillies, you looked around and nobody seems to want to give Kimbel multiple years at big $ and the demand for him is low as most teams aren't seeking closers, then why wouldn't you pounce if you're willing to give 3 or 4 years? The Red Sox don't really want to go beyond 1 year. The Braves might go 3 years but what would the annual be? Who else is connected to Kimbrel at this point? He'd be easy pickings for the Phillies, but like everybody else why wouldn't you wait a bit and get toward spring training with the stalemate still intact? Obviously, Kimbrel's price drops every day.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 16, 2019 10:41:51 GMT -5
So weird that you guys are just considering everything over when they haven't signed yet. Have you considered that rumors don't always work out? Rumors don't always work out, but the Phillies owner said the Phillies plan on spending stupid money and it would be surprising to see them lock up two long-term contracts. Odds are they get one of Harper or Machado. It's not hard to see them grabbing Kimbrel, even with Robertson around. Robertson doesn't have to be their closer. If you were the Phillies, you looked around and nobody seems to want to give Kimbel multiple years at big $ and the demand for him is low as most teams aren't seeking closers, then why wouldn't you pounce if you're willing to give 3 or 4 years? The Red Sox don't really want to go beyond 1 year. The Braves might go 3 years but what would the annual be? Who else is connected to Kimbrel at this point? He'd be easy pickings for the Phillies, but like everybody else why wouldn't you wait a bit and get toward spring training with the stalemate still intact? Obviously, Kimbrel's price drops every day. I'll just wait and see. There's nothing obvious about anything right now. I still think the Red Sox get either Kimbrel for 1 year or Ottavino.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 16, 2019 10:45:59 GMT -5
Rumors don't always work out, but the Phillies owner said the Phillies plan on spending stupid money and it would be surprising to see them lock up two long-term contracts. Odds are they get one of Harper or Machado. It's not hard to see them grabbing Kimbrel, even with Robertson around. Robertson doesn't have to be their closer. If you were the Phillies, you looked around and nobody seems to want to give Kimbel multiple years at big $ and the demand for him is low as most teams aren't seeking closers, then why wouldn't you pounce if you're willing to give 3 or 4 years? The Red Sox don't really want to go beyond 1 year. The Braves might go 3 years but what would the annual be? Who else is connected to Kimbrel at this point? He'd be easy pickings for the Phillies, but like everybody else why wouldn't you wait a bit and get toward spring training with the stalemate still intact? Obviously, Kimbrel's price drops every day. I'll just wait and see. There's nothing obvious about anything right now. I still think the Red Sox get either Kimbrel for 1 year or Ottavino. If they walk out if this offseason without one of those two, it’s a big disappointment and likely a huge mistake
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 16, 2019 11:10:25 GMT -5
Rumors don't always work out, but the Phillies owner said the Phillies plan on spending stupid money and it would be surprising to see them lock up two long-term contracts. Odds are they get one of Harper or Machado. It's not hard to see them grabbing Kimbrel, even with Robertson around. Robertson doesn't have to be their closer. If you were the Phillies, you looked around and nobody seems to want to give Kimbel multiple years at big $ and the demand for him is low as most teams aren't seeking closers, then why wouldn't you pounce if you're willing to give 3 or 4 years? The Red Sox don't really want to go beyond 1 year. The Braves might go 3 years but what would the annual be? Who else is connected to Kimbrel at this point? He'd be easy pickings for the Phillies, but like everybody else why wouldn't you wait a bit and get toward spring training with the stalemate still intact? Obviously, Kimbrel's price drops every day. I'll just wait and see. There's nothing obvious about anything right now. I still think the Red Sox get either Kimbrel for 1 year or Ottavino. The obvious thing is that Kimbrel isn't getting what he wants. 6 years $100 was a fantasy. Then it was a contract comparable to Chapman. That's not happening either. So 5 years is out, too. So then the question is will he get 4 years? Right now that's highly debatable, but if you think the Sox get Kimbrel for 1 year, say $20 million because why would he come back for less than the QO offer amount? - that would look bad, then why wouldn't a team like Philly who would have willingness to go multiple years make an offer for say 3 years? If you're Kimbrel and another team is throwing you a life preserver of 3 or 4 years why would you take the 1 year deal? Are you of the school of thought that Kimbrel's post-season was so bad that it wiped out his entire season and what he did in 2017, that he would have to settle for a pillow contract to re-establish his value? As bad as he was I wouldn't think he'd have to - that an opportunistic team in contention with money like Philly would take a chance that he has at least a couple of good years left and if that's the case I'd doubt Kimbrel would choose 1 year of Boston over say 3 with Philly.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 16, 2019 15:44:01 GMT -5
Let's hope you just made up numbers lol. Nothing wrong with it, if it works. Like I said it's like they want them, but only on a good deal. That doesn't always work though. Hence how big of a threat are they to Kimbrel? We'll see. The numbers were totally arbitrary and my math could have been a little off lol. Still the point remains, if the Phillies wait like every other team in MLB wants to do now in free agency and save 50-100 million dollars, then why not? This savings could then go to a Moustakas after if they want after maybe. I think a little is a very kind way of putting it lol. When talking about Kimbrel the worry is some team really wants him and gives him a really big really good offer. If the Phillies are just playing the we'll sign him if it's a really good deal for us. That isn't Kimbrel has a great market. If his numbers go low enough you'll get a bunch of teams involved. The scary thing was if the Phillies made him a top target. That would have changed everything. Just remember we have report after report saying the Red Sox are waiting on Kimbrel. I know a bunch of people think that means Kimbrel at one year, but I don't buy that. It makes zero sense! You only wait out the market if you feel you have a good chance at signing him and Kimbrel taking one year is likely less than 5%. I know you don't want to hear this as your not a Kimbrel guy. It's just the only thing that makes sense right now. Given DD history with bad bullpens and how much crazy depth we have at other positions. Kimbrel makes the most sense. He has from day one. If Kimbrel is going to sign some good value deal I think it happens with the Red Sox, not the Phillies. I think DD has played this brilliantly. The Phillies low balling Kimbrel, having Visions of maybe signing him will help push him back to the Red Sox on what will be considered a value deal when looking at other top closers. Frankly we needed some team to step up and make an offer like that, so our offer would look better. That sets up DD then signing a second guy on a value deal like Allen, Brach, Holland, or Wilson. Those are or really should be the replacement for Kelly, not Kimbrel. That likely makes them easily the best team in the league and we should be. We should only be walking away from Kimbrel if he got a massive deal, not a lower type deal.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 16, 2019 15:54:39 GMT -5
Schlereth, of course, is the other pitcher who has "Scher" in the first six letters of his last name who was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Tigers before the 2010 season. The previous winter he'd been the Snakes' #3 prospect and BP's #69, and he was still the Tigers #5 and regarded as a future closer after the trade went down. People were highly critical of the D'backs for giving up on two such promising young pitchers. And Schlereth had two good years in the Tigers pen before falling off the table. He's always been nasty when he's been able to throw strikes, which has not been often. Yet another interesting project for the staff.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 16, 2019 16:12:51 GMT -5
So weird that you guys are just considering everything over when they haven't signed yet. Have you considered that rumors don't always work out? Rumors don't always work out, but the Phillies owner said the Phillies plan on spending stupid money and it would be surprising to see them lock up two long-term contracts. Odds are they get one of Harper or Machado. It's not hard to see them grabbing Kimbrel, even with Robertson around. Robertson doesn't have to be their closer. If you were the Phillies, you looked around and nobody seems to want to give Kimbel multiple years at big $ and the demand for him is low as most teams aren't seeking closers, then why wouldn't you pounce if you're willing to give 3 or 4 years? The Red Sox don't really want to go beyond 1 year. The Braves might go 3 years but what would the annual be? Who else is connected to Kimbrel at this point? He'd be easy pickings for the Phillies, but like everybody else why wouldn't you wait a bit and get toward spring training with the stalemate still intact? Obviously, Kimbrel's price drops every day. The best explanation for why he hasn't already signed is that no one has offered him 4 years, because no team believes it's a good idea. It's easy to figure out he's worth $18.5M to $19M AAV.
If in fact his choice is between, say, $3/56 and 1/$19, that's not an easy decision. If you take the 1-year deal and pitch like you did two years ago, it's a big win, but if you pitch like you did last year it's a loss.
Meanwhile -- and I just figured this out -- delaying the decision leaves open the possibly that some team will got to four years because they've signed someone else major and now see a window to win a title.
So you're on the right track with the Phillies idea, but the dynamic is very different. If they land Machado and/or Harper it makes sense to sign Kimbrel even if your spreadsheet says that including the 4th year makes it an overpay, because if he's the closer on a WS winner, you don't mind the mild on-paper overpay.
(The Sox got every dime they spent for J.D. Drew's first four years and almost no value for the fifth year -- which they were originally opposed to -- but they don't win in 2007 without him. Giving in to Boras and adding the 5th year was the same logic.)
There may be other teams in a similar position. The White Sox are trying to become the favorites in an awful division and Kimbrel would be a huge upgrade over Alex "Juan from" Colome.
So I think Kimbrel is waiting for Machado and Harper. No wonder why I check online five times a day!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 16, 2019 17:30:12 GMT -5
Rumors don't always work out, but the Phillies owner said the Phillies plan on spending stupid money and it would be surprising to see them lock up two long-term contracts. Odds are they get one of Harper or Machado. It's not hard to see them grabbing Kimbrel, even with Robertson around. Robertson doesn't have to be their closer. If you were the Phillies, you looked around and nobody seems to want to give Kimbel multiple years at big $ and the demand for him is low as most teams aren't seeking closers, then why wouldn't you pounce if you're willing to give 3 or 4 years? The Red Sox don't really want to go beyond 1 year. The Braves might go 3 years but what would the annual be? Who else is connected to Kimbrel at this point? He'd be easy pickings for the Phillies, but like everybody else why wouldn't you wait a bit and get toward spring training with the stalemate still intact? Obviously, Kimbrel's price drops every day. The best explanation for why he hasn't already signed is that no one has offered him 4 years, because no team believes it's a good idea. It's easy to figure out he's worth $18.5M to $19M AAV.
If in fact his choice is between, say, $3/56 and 1/$19, that's not an easy decision. If you take the 1-year deal and pitch like you did two years ago, it's a big win, but if you pitch like you did last year it's a loss.
Meanwhile -- and I just figured this out -- delaying the decision leaves open the possibly that some team will got to four years because they've signed someone else major and now see a window to win a title. So you're on the right track with the Phillies idea, but the dynamic is very different. If they land Machado and/or Harper it makes sense to sign Kimbrel even if your spreadsheet says that including the 4th year makes it an overpay, because if he's the closer on a WS winner, you don't mind the mild on-paper overpay. (The Sox got every dime they spent for J.D. Drew's first four years and almost no value for the fifth year -- which they were originally opposed to -- but they don't win in 2007 without him. Giving in to Boras and adding the 5th year was the same logic.)
There may be other teams in a similar position. The White Sox are trying to become the favorites in an awful division and Kimbrel would be a huge upgrade over Alex "Juan from" Colome. So I think Kimbrel is waiting for Machado and Harper. No wonder why I check online five times a day!
Frankly I don't think any team is giving Kimbrel 4 guaranteed years. I can see the team that gets him give him 3 years around $50 million or so with an extra year kicking in based on games finished meaning if he's not good enough to close by year 3 or he gets injured the 4th year doesn't kick in. If he's doing a good job closing by then the 4th year kicks in. I can see Philly doing it. They're gearing up to win the division. Kimbrel makes sense for them. If say they land Harper and Machado is in play for say 7 years $200 million, maybe they'd try signing both, but Kimbrel probably wouldn't be somebody they'd sign at that point. I do think Machado somehow winds up with better than that 7 year $175 million offer and if the team that signs him is not Philly then the Phillies would probably sign Kimbrel and maybe make a play for Keuchel. I don't think that Philly winds up with both Machado and Harper - that's kind of unlikely, but I don't see Machado signing with the White Sox for 7 years $175 million either. I can see Atlanta possibly going 3 years but I don't think they'd kick in as much annual $ or take the chance of a 4th year kicking in. As far as the Sox go, I disagree with UMass. I don't think the Sox are looking for value with Kimbrel. I do think they're trying to get under the luxury tax limit for 2020 and they have to prioritize which big contract they'll try to keep. I doubt closer, which is highly replaceable, is near the top of their list, not when there's money needed for Mookie, Sale to consider, possibly Bogaerts, and a few extra million to keep JDM around. Within a few years Feltman might just be the closer, if not sooner. So I do believe the Sox are waiting on Kimbrel, but only waiting to see if the market is that bad would he come back for 1 year at around 20 million? And if so, they'd bring him back or otherwise move on to Plan B. I can't see the Sox wanting Kimbrel for more than a year and if he was given a choice between 1 year 19 million and 3 years 57 million as you stated, I think it would be a no-brainer for Kimbrel at this stage. I think he'd take the 3 year deal and not look back.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 16, 2019 18:16:57 GMT -5
The best explanation for why he hasn't already signed is that no one has offered him 4 years, because no team believes it's a good idea. It's easy to figure out he's worth $18.5M to $19M AAV.
If in fact his choice is between, say, $3/56 and 1/$19, that's not an easy decision. If you take the 1-year deal and pitch like you did two years ago, it's a big win, but if you pitch like you did last year it's a loss.
Meanwhile -- and I just figured this out -- delaying the decision leaves open the possibly that some team will got to four years because they've signed someone else major and now see a window to win a title. So you're on the right track with the Phillies idea, but the dynamic is very different. If they land Machado and/or Harper it makes sense to sign Kimbrel even if your spreadsheet says that including the 4th year makes it an overpay, because if he's the closer on a WS winner, you don't mind the mild on-paper overpay. (The Sox got every dime they spent for J.D. Drew's first four years and almost no value for the fifth year -- which they were originally opposed to -- but they don't win in 2007 without him. Giving in to Boras and adding the 5th year was the same logic.)
There may be other teams in a similar position. The White Sox are trying to become the favorites in an awful division and Kimbrel would be a huge upgrade over Alex "Juan from" Colome. So I think Kimbrel is waiting for Machado and Harper. No wonder why I check online five times a day!
Frankly I don't think any team is giving Kimbrel 4 guaranteed years. I can see the team that gets him give him 3 years around $50 million or so with an extra year kicking in based on games finished meaning if he's not good enough to close by year 3 or he gets injured the 4th year doesn't kick in. If he's doing a good job closing by then the 4th year kicks in. I can see Philly doing it. They're gearing up to win the division. Kimbrel makes sense for them. If say they land Harper and Machado is in play for say 7 years $200 million, maybe they'd try signing both, but Kimbrel probably wouldn't be somebody they'd sign at that point. I do think Machado somehow winds up with better than that 7 year $175 million offer and if the team that signs him is not Philly then the Phillies would probably sign Kimbrel and maybe make a play for Keuchel. I don't think that Philly winds up with both Machado and Harper - that's kind of unlikely, but I don't see Machado signing with the White Sox for 7 years $175 million either. I can see Atlanta possibly going 3 years but I don't think they'd kick in as much annual $ or take the chance of a 4th year kicking in. As far as the Sox go, I disagree with UMass. I don't think the Sox are looking for value with Kimbrel. I do think they're trying to get under the luxury tax limit for 2020 and they have to prioritize which big contract they'll try to keep. I doubt closer, which is highly replaceable, is near the top of their list, not when there's money needed for Mookie, Sale to consider, possibly Bogaerts, and a few extra million to keep JDM around. Within a few years Feltman might just be the closer, if not sooner. So I do believe the Sox are waiting on Kimbrel, but only waiting to see if the market is that bad would he come back for 1 year at around 20 million? And if so, they'd bring him back or otherwise move on to Plan B. I can't see the Sox wanting Kimbrel for more than a year and if he was given a choice between 1 year 19 million and 3 years 57 million as you stated, I think it would be a no-brainer for Kimbrel at this stage. I think he'd take the 3 year deal and not look back. Yeah, a 4th year would definitely be an easy vesting option based on GF, plus probably a team option for the same amount (he could be hurt at the start of the season and miss the vesting, but finish the season dominant).
I think the 1/$19 to return to his champion teammates on the best team in baseball versus 3/$56 to play for a team of mostly strangers that's not even guaranteed of playing in the post-season is much tougher than you think, for the reasons stressed. One last shot at a historic achievement, then the lifetime security, with a very good chance of making more.
Let's say that if he signs for 3/$56 then his next contract has a $16M AAV.
If he returns to his 2017 form this year, that's worth an extra $4.6M. Per year. AAV.
Let's say he returns 40% of the way. That puts him in line for a 3/$61.5M contract. You're talking about a very likely extra $8 to $9M. If I'm Kimbrel I'm thinking I can return 70% to my 2017 form, and that puts me in line for 3/$65.5M, and now up to $12 to $13M ahead.
If you have confidence of being able to be the guy standing on the mound when you repeat, you have to ask yourself, how much do I give up for that opportunity? The answer is, no, wait, I get $9M to $13M more, if I can pitch the way I know I can pitch.
I think it would be a no-brainer for Kimbrel at this stage
You get the strong appeal of the security of taking the 3-year deal now. So do I. But factor in the very different appeal of coming back for one last rodeo, getting back-to-back rings, and probably upping your value in the process -- you can see that it's a tough decision. Reward / risk decisions are always tough.
If it weren't tough, there wouldn't be reports of the Sox being an option.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 16, 2019 18:50:40 GMT -5
Frankly I don't think any team is giving Kimbrel 4 guaranteed years. I can see the team that gets him give him 3 years around $50 million or so with an extra year kicking in based on games finished meaning if he's not good enough to close by year 3 or he gets injured the 4th year doesn't kick in. If he's doing a good job closing by then the 4th year kicks in. I can see Philly doing it. They're gearing up to win the division. Kimbrel makes sense for them. If say they land Harper and Machado is in play for say 7 years $200 million, maybe they'd try signing both, but Kimbrel probably wouldn't be somebody they'd sign at that point. I do think Machado somehow winds up with better than that 7 year $175 million offer and if the team that signs him is not Philly then the Phillies would probably sign Kimbrel and maybe make a play for Keuchel. I don't think that Philly winds up with both Machado and Harper - that's kind of unlikely, but I don't see Machado signing with the White Sox for 7 years $175 million either. I can see Atlanta possibly going 3 years but I don't think they'd kick in as much annual $ or take the chance of a 4th year kicking in. As far as the Sox go, I disagree with UMass. I don't think the Sox are looking for value with Kimbrel. I do think they're trying to get under the luxury tax limit for 2020 and they have to prioritize which big contract they'll try to keep. I doubt closer, which is highly replaceable, is near the top of their list, not when there's money needed for Mookie, Sale to consider, possibly Bogaerts, and a few extra million to keep JDM around. Within a few years Feltman might just be the closer, if not sooner. So I do believe the Sox are waiting on Kimbrel, but only waiting to see if the market is that bad would he come back for 1 year at around 20 million? And if so, they'd bring him back or otherwise move on to Plan B. I can't see the Sox wanting Kimbrel for more than a year and if he was given a choice between 1 year 19 million and 3 years 57 million as you stated, I think it would be a no-brainer for Kimbrel at this stage. I think he'd take the 3 year deal and not look back. Yeah, a 4th year would definitely be an easy vesting option based on GF, plus probably a team option for the same amount (he could be hurt at the start of the season and miss the vesting, but finish the season dominant). I think the 1/$19 to return to his champion teammates on the best team in baseball versus 3/$56 to play for a team of mostly strangers that's not even guaranteed of playing in the post-season is much tougher than you think, for the reasons stressed. One last shot at a historic achievement, then the lifetime security, with a very good chance of making more. Let's say that if he signs for 3/$56 then his next contract has a $16M AAV.
If he returns to his 2017 form this year, that's worth an extra $4.6M. Per year. AAV.
Let's say he returns 40% of the way. That puts him in line for a 3/$61.5M contract. You're talking about a very likely extra $8 to $9M. If I'm Kimbrel I'm thinking I can return 70% to my 2017 form, and that puts me in line for 3/$65.5M, and now up to $12 to $13M ahead.
If you have confidence of being able to be the guy standing on the mound when you repeat, you have to ask yourself, how much do I give up for that opportunity? The answer is, no, wait, I get $9M to $13M more, if I can pitch the way I know I can pitch. I think it would be a no-brainer for Kimbrel at this stage You get the strong appeal of the security of taking the 3-year deal now. So do I. But factor in the very different appeal of coming back for one last rodeo, getting back-to-back rings, and probably upping your value in the process -- you can see that it's a tough decision. Reward / risk decisions are always tough.
If it weren't tough, there wouldn't be reports of the Sox being an option.
Eric, your view of this is as a diehard Red Sox fan. Kimbrel's #1 mission isn't most likely to secure the repeat of a Red Sox championship/dynasty - it's to do what's best for Craig Kimbrel and his family. And that's an awful lot of money to leave on the table to gamble that he has one of the all-time greatest years a reliever can have and hope a team is willing to dole out the money you're talking about as he's another year older. I'd be very surprised if he took a 1 year offer to stay. If he did, perhaps he would stay for a year in Boston it would be for non-baseball reasons. Normally when it comes to family financial considerations weigh the heaviest, but given what he and his family went through last year from a health standpoint, perhaps this would be an exception. Otherwise I could not think of any other reason for him to stick around for 1 year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 17, 2019 0:25:36 GMT -5
Yeah, a 4th year would definitely be an easy vesting option based on GF, plus probably a team option for the same amount (he could be hurt at the start of the season and miss the vesting, but finish the season dominant). I think the 1/$19 to return to his champion teammates on the best team in baseball versus 3/$56 to play for a team of mostly strangers that's not even guaranteed of playing in the post-season is much tougher than you think, for the reasons stressed. One last shot at a historic achievement, then the lifetime security, with a very good chance of making more. Let's say that if he signs for 3/$56 then his next contract has a $16M AAV.
If he returns to his 2017 form this year, that's worth an extra $4.6M. Per year. AAV.
Let's say he returns 40% of the way. That puts him in line for a 3/$61.5M contract. You're talking about a very likely extra $8 to $9M. If I'm Kimbrel I'm thinking I can return 70% to my 2017 form, and that puts me in line for 3/$65.5M, and now up to $12 to $13M ahead.
If you have confidence of being able to be the guy standing on the mound when you repeat, you have to ask yourself, how much do I give up for that opportunity? The answer is, no, wait, I get $9M to $13M more, if I can pitch the way I know I can pitch. I think it would be a no-brainer for Kimbrel at this stage You get the strong appeal of the security of taking the 3-year deal now. So do I. But factor in the very different appeal of coming back for one last rodeo, getting back-to-back rings, and probably upping your value in the process -- you can see that it's a tough decision. Reward / risk decisions are always tough.
If it weren't tough, there wouldn't be reports of the Sox being an option.
Eric, your view of this is as a diehard Red Sox fan. Kimbrel's #1 mission isn't most likely to secure the repeat of a Red Sox championship/dynasty - it's to do what's best for Craig Kimbrel and his family. And that's an awful lot of money to leave on the table to gamble that he has one of the all-time greatest years a reliever can have and hope a team is willing to dole out the money you're talking about as he's another year older. I'd be very surprised if he took a 1 year offer to stay. If he did, perhaps he would stay for a year in Boston it would be for non-baseball reasons. Normally when it comes to family financial considerations weigh the heaviest, but given what he and his family went through last year from a health standpoint, perhaps this would be an exception. Otherwise I could not think of any other reason for him to stick around for 1 year. No, actually, my view of this is as someone who has the equivalent of an advanced degree in personality psychology and who understands the science of what makes people happy.
Craig Kimbrel has already made 55 Million Dollars. Financial security for his family is almost certainly not an issue.
Science shows that above a certain level of income (it's probably 100K now) extra money doesn't make you any happier.
Science also shows that what makes you happier are memorable, pleasant experiences, especially those with people you care about.
I can guarantee you that if you told Craig Kimbrel that (for certain either way) he could have $56M more dollars but lose in the post-season for three straight seasons, or $20M more dollars for one season and also be on the mound after retiring the side in the WS-clinching game and having CV jump into his arms and then the rest of his teammates mob him, and then another duck boat parade, etc., not only would he choose the latter, he'd laugh at the idea that you had to ask him the question.
The tricky part is balancing the likelihood of repeating versus winning with a new team, and other factors like the ones you mention. It's true that being a champion with two different teams is a great, memorable experience, and that's why a 4-year deal with a team that looks like a really serious contender would be very appealing as well. That would be an easy choice over a 1-year return deal.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 17, 2019 5:19:59 GMT -5
This makes good sense. Never been in the $18M bracket, but at a more plebian level have made choices for less $$ that have made me and my family very happy. Have also made choices for big raises which also made us happy. I remember a certain Nyfy 1B who chose NY over Boston because his wife preferred to shop there. In either case, the $$ were good enough that our choices were for what made us happy, which really is a no brainer.
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Post by awall on Jan 17, 2019 8:52:14 GMT -5
No, actually, my view of this is as someone who has the equivalent of an advanced degree in personality psychology and who understands the science of what makes people happy.
Craig Kimbrel has already made 55 Million Dollars. Financial security for his family is almost certainly not an issue.
Science shows that above a certain level of income (it's probably 100K now) extra money doesn't make you any happier.
Science also shows that what makes you happier are memorable, pleasant experiences, especially those with people you care about.
I can guarantee you that if you told Craig Kimbrel that (for certain either way) he could have $56M more dollars but lose in the post-season for three straight seasons, or $20M more dollars for one season and also be on the mound after retiring the side in the WS-clinching game and having CV jump into his arms and then the rest of his teammates mob him, and then another duck boat parade, etc., not only would he choose the latter, he'd laugh at the idea that you had to ask him the question.
The tricky part is balancing the likelihood of repeating versus winning with a new team, and other factors like the ones you mention. It's true that being a champion with two different teams is a great, memorable experience, and that's why a 4-year deal with a team that looks like a really serious contender would be very appealing as well. That would be an easy choice over a 1-year return deal.
I think you can throw behavioral science away when you're dealing with professional athletes. whether or not it makes you happier has nothing to do with whether or not they want to make as much as possible. Professional athletes' contracts are about a lot more than providing for their families.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 17, 2019 11:58:04 GMT -5
Eric, your view of this is as a diehard Red Sox fan. Kimbrel's #1 mission isn't most likely to secure the repeat of a Red Sox championship/dynasty - it's to do what's best for Craig Kimbrel and his family. And that's an awful lot of money to leave on the table to gamble that he has one of the all-time greatest years a reliever can have and hope a team is willing to dole out the money you're talking about as he's another year older. I'd be very surprised if he took a 1 year offer to stay. If he did, perhaps he would stay for a year in Boston it would be for non-baseball reasons. Normally when it comes to family financial considerations weigh the heaviest, but given what he and his family went through last year from a health standpoint, perhaps this would be an exception. Otherwise I could not think of any other reason for him to stick around for 1 year. No, actually, my view of this is as someone who has the equivalent of an advanced degree in personality psychology and who understands the science of what makes people happy.
Craig Kimbrel has already made 55 Million Dollars. Financial security for his family is almost certainly not an issue. Science shows that above a certain level of income (it's probably 100K now) extra money doesn't make you any happier. Science also shows that what makes you happier are memorable, pleasant experiences, especially those with people you care about. I can guarantee you that if you told Craig Kimbrel that (for certain either way) he could have $56M more dollars but lose in the post-season for three straight seasons, or $20M more dollars for one season and also be on the mound after retiring the side in the WS-clinching game and having CV jump into his arms and then the rest of his teammates mob him, and then another duck boat parade, etc., not only would he choose the latter, he'd laugh at the idea that you had to ask him the question.
The tricky part is balancing the likelihood of repeating versus winning with a new team, and other factors like the ones you mention. It's true that being a champion with two different teams is a great, memorable experience, and that's why a 4-year deal with a team that looks like a really serious contender would be very appealing as well. That would be an easy choice over a 1-year return deal.
You may have an advanced degree in personality psychology and a bunch of other stuff as well, but a lot of ballplayers don't. A lot of them will go where the most money is. The part where your point of view is very Red Sox-centric is where you make it sound in your supposition like it's just about a guarantee that if he goes elsewhere he could make $56 million but lose in the post-season 3 straight years as opposed to going to the God-anointed World Champion Red Sox who could do nothing but win the 2019 World Series, so of course if he goes to Boston he'll be the man on the mound for the last out (just like he was in 2018? Oh wait, he wasn't), because other than the Red Sox who in the world could possibly win the 2019 World Series? Do you know how arrogant that sounds? That's something you see, particularly as a Red Sox fan, not something everybody else necessarily sees. Players see that Boston has a great shot at winning (but hardly the only shot), and an awesome manager to play for. But I doubt they see the rest of what you see in that statement. You covered your statement with "IF you told". Well, why in the world would you? You wouldn't or you'd sound just like I pointed out in my previous paragraph. And if he's laughing it's probably because he thinks that you really think it's a guarantee that if he goes anywhere else but Boston, it's impossible to win. That makes no sense whatsoever. Teams other than the Red Sox win the World Series all of the time. Maybe the Red Sox win it again in 2019. Maybe the team Kimbrel joins wins instead. The truth is nobody really knows and that in baseball stuff happens. I'm sure the Astros were positive they were going to repeat. Didn't happen.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 17, 2019 12:01:55 GMT -5
No, actually, my view of this is as someone who has the equivalent of an advanced degree in personality psychology and who understands the science of what makes people happy.
Craig Kimbrel has already made 55 Million Dollars. Financial security for his family is almost certainly not an issue. Science shows that above a certain level of income (it's probably 100K now) extra money doesn't make you any happier. Science also shows that what makes you happier are memorable, pleasant experiences, especially those with people you care about. I can guarantee you that if you told Craig Kimbrel that (for certain either way) he could have $56M more dollars but lose in the post-season for three straight seasons, or $20M more dollars for one season and also be on the mound after retiring the side in the WS-clinching game and having CV jump into his arms and then the rest of his teammates mob him, and then another duck boat parade, etc., not only would he choose the latter, he'd laugh at the idea that you had to ask him the question.
The tricky part is balancing the likelihood of repeating versus winning with a new team, and other factors like the ones you mention. It's true that being a champion with two different teams is a great, memorable experience, and that's why a 4-year deal with a team that looks like a really serious contender would be very appealing as well. That would be an easy choice over a 1-year return deal.
I think you can throw behavioral science away when you're dealing with professional athletes. whether or not it makes you happier has nothing to do with whether or not they want to make as much as possible. Professional athletes' contracts are about a lot more than providing for their families. Ego is involved. So and so is making this and I'm better than him. Or why should ownership get to save some bucks off of me? These guys make more money than I do? Why do I need to be loyal to him/them? There are players that do love where they are, enough to stick around, even if they don't get every last dollar, but they are the minority and a reasonable 3 year offer versus a 1 year offer at high $, most players are taking the 3 years.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 17, 2019 12:15:42 GMT -5
Amazing how that extra money doesn't make you happier, yet the owners are so intent on keeping it.
Really makes you think.
Maybe "happiness" isn't the goal. We only criticize that or see it as a failing when people are trying to get money, but not when people who have money are trying to get stuff on the cheap. That's the difference between "greed" and "thrift," right?
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Post by manfred on Jan 17, 2019 14:59:55 GMT -5
Amazing how that extra money doesn't make you happier, yet the owners are so intent on keeping it. Really makes you think. Maybe "happiness" isn't the goal. We only criticize that or see it as a failing when people are trying to get money, but not when people who have money are trying to get stuff on the cheap. That's the difference between "greed" and "thrift," right? There is also the less selfish angle: players feel responsible for creating a max market for other players. If Kimbrel gave the Sox some massive discount, even if it is an exceptional circumstance, owners going forward could use that to depress salaries. “How can Joe Kelly be worth x if Craig Kimbrel took y?”
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