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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2019 0:47:06 GMT -5
Aside from two very close home-field advantage battles, there's just one pennant race left. But it's epic.
The A's lead the Indians by a game, and the Rays are in the middle with an extra game played and Thursday off.
Numbers in () are xwOBA on the season. * is with the new team. ~ is a SSS.
A's:
At LAA (Frankie Montas (.278) vs. Andrew Heaney (.319)) ESPN
At Sea (Mike Fiers (.335) vs. Felix Hernandez (.364)) At Sea (Sean Manaea (~.288) vs. Justus Sheffield (.311)) At Sea (Tanner Roark (.342) vs. Marco Gonzales (.310)) At Sea (Homer Bailey (.295*) vs. Justin Dunn (~.453))
That sets up Montas, who has far and away been their ace, for the W/C game. He's coming off an 80-game PED suspension yonight, so if he's rusty they have Fiers as a plan B.
Rays:
vs NYY (Charlie Morton (.276) vs. Jonathan Loaisiga (.313)) ESPN
off At Tor (Tyler Glasnow (.233) vs. J.T. Zeuch(~.361)) At Tor (Ryan Yarbrough (.293) vs. Trent Thornton (.330)) At Tor (Blake Snell (.262) vs. Clay Buchholz (.374)) (! Love to see him knock the Rays out of the playoffs)
Morton lined up for the W/C, Glasnow for game 1 if they advance.
Indians:
At ChW (Shane Bieber (.297) vs. Ross Detwiler (.397)) At ChW (Aaron Civale (.268) vs. Dylan Cease (.321)) At Was (Zach Plesac (.352) vs. Austin Voth (.279)) ESPN+
At Was (Adam Plutko (.323) vs. Patrick Corbin (.299)) FS1 At Was (Mike Clevinger (.265) vs. "Max Scherzer" (.251))
But if Was has clinched home field (and maybe even if they haven't) Sherzer goes the next day in the W/C game. Could be Stephen Strasburg (.263), Anibal Sanchez (.315), or Joe Ross (.359))
This looks impossibly tough for the Indians.
And they begin by losing the game where they had the biggest starting pitching edge.
Meanwhile, Montas returns with a 6 4 1 1 2 6, and Matt Chapman hits a 2-run bomb in the top of the 9th and the A's win 3-2.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 26, 2019 12:59:31 GMT -5
This is a baseball AD:
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2019 17:54:15 GMT -5
So we have a first-place vs W/C race, as the Brewers go to 21-4 starting August 31 to pull within a game of the Cardinals. If the Nats keep their 6-1 lead, they'll have the same record as the Cards.
If tied for the W/C -- both the Central teams have the home-field tiebreaker over the Nationals.
Pitching matchups:
Cardinals hosting Cubs
Dakota Hudson (.338) vs. Alec Mills (.338) (ESPN 2)
Adam Wainwright (.321) vs. Cole Hamels (.333) (FOX) Miles Mikolas (.326) or Jack Flaherty (.275) vs. Jose Quintana (.318), Yu Darvish (.294), or Kyle Hendricks (.294)
Brewers at Reds
Zach Davies (.339, but .316 since 8/31) vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (.352)
Brandon Woodruff (.285) vs. Antonio Senzatela (.355)
Adrian Houser (.284) vs. Jeff Hoffman (.382)
What seems likeliest is the Brewers sweeping and the other two teams taking 2 of 3. In which case the Cardinals would host the Brewers in a game 163, and the loser would go to Washington for the W/C game.
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Post by manfred on Sept 26, 2019 20:27:23 GMT -5
No one told me to follow Jordan Zimmerman’s season! Wow. The next time anyone complains about a bad pitcher signing, just remember JZ. Ooph.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2019 2:03:56 GMT -5
A's win to stay a game ahead of the Rays. They have the home field tiebreaker, so this one is almost over; with six games left between them, the magic number of the A's to clinch home field is 2, same as the Rays to clinch a W/C over the Indians.
Meanwhile, Houston lost, but their magic number to clinch first seed remains one.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2019 4:06:54 GMT -5
So we have a first-place vs W/C race, as the Brewers go to 21-4 starting August 31 to pull within a game of the Cardinals. If the Nats keep their 6-1 lead, they'll have the same record as the Cards.
If tied for the W/C -- both the Central teams have the home-field tiebreaker over the Nationals.
Pitching matchups:
Cardinals hosting Cubs
Dakota Hudson (.338) vs. Alec Mills (.338) (ESPN 2)
Adam Wainwright (.321) vs. Cole Hamels (.333) (FOX) Miles Mikolas (.326) or Jack Flaherty (.275) vs. Jose Quintana (.318), Yu Darvish (.294), or Kyle Hendricks (.294)
Brewers at Reds
Zach Davies (.339, but .316 since 8/31) vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (.352)
Brandon Woodruff (.285) vs. Antonio Senzatela (.355)
Adrian Houser (.284) vs. Jeff Hoffman (.382)
What seems likeliest is the Brewers sweeping and the other two teams taking 2 of 3. In which case the Cardinals would host the Brewers in a game 163, and the loser would go to Washington for the W/C game.
If there's a game 163 (which would be in St. Louis), the Brewers would send Jordan Lyles (.307) and the Cards would presumably go with whoever doesn't start 162, Flaherty or Mikolas.
For the W/C game, the Brewers would have Chase Anderson (.320) or Lyles (if there's no 163). If the Cards play a 163 and lose, they're got only Michael Wacha (.356) as a quasi-opener for the W/C game ... on the road versus Max Scherzer, in all likelhood.
So it's really, really interesting for the Cards. They are praying to clinch before Sunday. They can't be too sanguine about their odds of winning that game regardless who starts for them if it's Darvish or Hendricks starting for the Cubs, the other available in relief along with Quintana, and the team presumably incredibly eager to win the game and end the season on a non-disastrous note by spoiling the Cardinals' season. They should be loose, too.
If the Cards are still up 1, they can start Flaherty and if they win, they have Wainwright (or Mikolas) and Flaherty for games 1 and 2 of the DS. If they lose, they have Mikolas at home in game 163, and that seems like a coin toss, and if they lose that one, too, they're probably screwed with Wacha facing Scherzer in Washington.
The really interesting scenario is where they're tied going into Sunday. They can start Wacha and if they lose and the Brewers win (which seems really, really likely), they have Flaherty versus Scherzer in the W/C at home, which doesn't suck. And if both teams somehow win or lose, then they still have Flaherty for 163, which is the best they can manage, and Mikolas for the W/C if they lose that. Whereas if they start Flaherty on Sunday and win, then they're probably staking the season on Mikolas versus Lyles, albeit at home. Do you go all in with Flaherty on Sunday, hedge your bet with Miklas, or punt with Wacha? I'm glad I don't have to make that decision, and I bet that Mike Schildt is already losing sleep over this one.
It's kind of ironic that the 21-4 Brewers are making this series relevant for the 0-9 Cubs.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 27, 2019 8:17:12 GMT -5
A's win to stay a game ahead of the Rays. They have the home field tiebreaker, so this one is almost over; with six games left between them, the magic number of the A's to clinch home field is 2, same as the Rays to clinch a W/C over the Indians. Meanwhile, Houston lost, but their magic number to clinch first seed remains one.
Good, that's loss 55, which means that they cannot possibly match the 119 win championship the Red Sox had last season. The best they can do is 118 wins, which I'd be fine with because it would mean the Yankees didn't win the World Series!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2019 18:54:37 GMT -5
If there's a game 163 (which would be in St. Louis), the Brewers would send Jordan Lyles (.307) and the Cards would presumably go with whoever doesn't start 162, Flaherty or Mikolas.
For the W/C game, the Brewers would have Chase Anderson (.320) or Lyles (if there's no 163). If the Cards play a 163 and lose, they're got only Michael Wacha (.356) as a quasi-opener for the W/C game ... on the road versus Max Scherzer, in all likelhood. So it's really, really interesting for the Cards. They are praying to clinch before Sunday. They can't be too sanguine about their odds of winning that game regardless who starts for them if it's Darvish or Hendricks starting for the Cubs, the other available in relief along with Quintana, and the team presumably incredibly eager to win the game and end the season on a non-disastrous note by spoiling the Cardinals' season. They should be loose, too.
If the Cards are still up 1, they can start Flaherty and if they win, they have Wainwright (or Mikolas) and Flaherty for games 1 and 2 of the DS. If they lose, they have Mikolas at home in game 163, and that seems like a coin toss, and if they lose that one, too, they're probably screwed with Wacha facing Scherzer in Washington.
The really interesting scenario is where they're tied going into Sunday. They can start Wacha and if they lose and the Brewers win (which seems really, really likely), they have Flaherty versus Scherzer in the W/C at home, which doesn't suck. And if both teams somehow win or lose, then they still have Flaherty for 163, which is the best they can manage, and Mikolas for the W/C if they lose that. Whereas if they start Flaherty on Sunday and win, then they're probably staking the season on Mikolas versus Lyles, albeit at home. Do you go all in with Flaherty on Sunday, hedge your bet with Miklas, or punt with Wacha? I'm glad I don't have to make that decision, and I bet that Mike Schildt is already losing sleep over this one. It's kind of ironic that the 21-4 Brewers are making this series relevant for the 0-9 Cubs.
Cubs have announced that Darvish and Hendricks have been shut down, with Sunday likely being a bullpen game. I wonder what the players and fans think of possibly handing a division title to their rivals. Imagine if we did that in game 162 against the Yankees who were fighting to avoid a WC game with the A's.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2019 21:22:36 GMT -5
Rays just clinched. That was quick and easy.
A's looking to cut their magic number for home field from 2 to 1 late tonight.
Meanwhile, Cards are tied 1-1 in the 6th and the Brewers trail the Rockies 8-2 in the bottom of the 6th, as Raimel Tapia capped a 7-run rally with a 1-out pinch-hit grand slam.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2019 22:33:21 GMT -5
Rays just clinched. That was quick and easy. A's looking to cut their magic number for home field from 2 to 1 late tonight. Meanwhile, Cards are tied 1-1 in the 6th and the Brewers trail the Rockies 8-2 in the bottom of the 6th, as Raimel Tapia capped a 7-run rally with a 1-out pinch-hit grand slam. And Robel Garcia hits a pinch-hit three homer for the Cubs in the top of the 7th to blow their game open; they're now up 8-1. Garcia, a 26 y/o rookie, now has more career HRs (5) than singles (4).
They are the only 2 players in MLB history named Raimel and Robel. I love this game.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2019 1:25:32 GMT -5
A's blow an 89.7% Win Probability (up a run in the bottom of the ninth, 1 out, nobody on) and get walked off. Now tied with the Rays, but they have the tiebreaker for home field. The Rays have better pitching matchups this weekend, so there's a real chance the A's could blow it. There would be no justice if the Rays' fans get even a single home playoff game.
Of course, neither team would seem to have a prayer against the Astros.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 28, 2019 18:52:26 GMT -5
A's blow an 89.7% Win Probability (up a run in the bottom of the ninth, 1 out, nobody on) and get walked off. Now tied with the Rays, but they have the tiebreaker for home field. The Rays have better pitching matchups this weekend, so there's a real chance the A's could blow it. There would be no justice if the Rays' fans get even a single home playoff game. Of course, neither team would seem to have a prayer against the Astros.
I mean probably not, but it's worth remembering that the As have improved their pitching staff a lot in the past month or so. Manaea is back in the rotation, while Puk and Luzardo are being used as multi-inning relievers. Combined with what they already had, that's the kind of bullpen you could ride all the way through October. Again, not the favorites, but sneakily more of a threat than I think they're being given credit for.
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Post by manfred on Sept 29, 2019 20:22:58 GMT -5
Cole or Verlander for Cy Young: who ya got?
I go Verlander by a hair.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 30, 2019 8:36:19 GMT -5
Cole led in ERA and FIP. In 10 2/3 more innings, Verlander had 26 fewer strikeouts, 6 fewer walks, and seven more homers allowed. Cole had a .276 BABIP against. Verlander's was .219 which is partially skill but there's an awful lot of luck involved there as well. It's Cole for me.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 30, 2019 8:43:20 GMT -5
Cole led in ERA and FIP. In 10 2/3 more innings, Verlander had 26 fewer strikeouts, 6 fewer walks, and seven more homers allowed. Cole had a .276 BABIP against. Verlander's was .219 which is partially skill but there's an awful lot of luck involved there as well. It's Cole for me. It's weird how close those two are, yet there's no real argument for Verlander that I can see. Cole is uniformly a tiny bit ahead everywhere. ERA, FIP, xFIP, K-BB%, SIERA, take your pick, it's Cole by a nose. Oh yeah, and Lance Lynn is somehow right there with them. Sure, why not.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 30, 2019 9:05:22 GMT -5
Verlander does have a slightly better RAA, which is a better metric than ERA and probably the reason for the bWAR lead, though the gap is inexplicable. But I don't think it's enough to make me change my mind.
Lynn had what feels like his Porcello 2016 season: talented and durable guy who always had something every year that prevented him from being truly great (and sometimes even good) put things together in a way that's not really fluky so much as it is probably unsustainable. Emphasis on Probably. He was also one of only three qualified American League pitchers who didn't allow at least one homer per nine innings this year. Suppressing homers is historically a thing he's been pretty good at, other than 2017 when he came back from injury, and he did it in a very homer friendly park.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2019 9:15:21 GMT -5
Honestly I'd go with Cole, but I think they're close enough....and softie that I am, I'd split my vote. They're both well deserving of the award and neither one should have to lose. They basically had twin seasons.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 30, 2019 9:21:12 GMT -5
Lynn is Morton-ing a bit too. Age 32 and he had the best fastball velo, swinging strike rate, and strikeout rate of his career. Rangers should really flip him in the offseason, but who knows what they're doing anymore.
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Post by manfred on Sept 30, 2019 9:38:11 GMT -5
Can someone who understands the details of WAR explain how Lynn, who is better in almost no statistics, is nearly a full win better than Gerrit Cole? And nearly identical to Verlander?
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 30, 2019 9:42:24 GMT -5
Expected runs allowed, mostly based on park effects but also defense, opponent quality, etc. For Lynn, it was 6.25 per nine innings, for Verlander it's 4.95, and for Cole it was 4.88. Ballpark in Arlington is a very, very, very hard place to pitch. Based on that it rated Cole 72 runs above replacement, Lynn 78, and Verlander 81.
Fangraphs bases their WAR on FIP rather than RAA, so it has Cole better than Verlander. But the park effects also show up: Lynn is a 6.8 fWAR with a 3.85 FIP, while Verlander is at 6.4 with a 3.18 FIP. By their runs above replacement measure it went Cole 69.7, Lynn 64.3, Verlander 61.4.
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Post by SALNotes on Sept 30, 2019 10:51:40 GMT -5
Jeff Banister is in the running for the Pirates manager job and for a second I read that as Brian lol.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 30, 2019 11:09:38 GMT -5
This is the Cy voting and voters. Verlander has more wins, case closed.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2019 12:17:26 GMT -5
Another manager learned from Cora. Nationals are starting Scherzer in the Wild Card game but will also have Strasburg and Corbin available.
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Post by manfred on Sept 30, 2019 12:45:32 GMT -5
Expected runs allowed, mostly based on park effects but also defense, opponent quality, etc. For Lynn, it was 6.25 per nine innings, for Verlander it's 4.95, and for Cole it was 4.88. Ballpark in Arlington is a very, very, very hard place to pitch. Based on that it rated Cole 72 runs above replacement, Lynn 78, and Verlander 81. Fangraphs bases their WAR on FIP rather than RAA, so it has Cole better than Verlander. But the park effects also show up: Lynn is a 6.8 fWAR with a 3.85 FIP, while Verlander is at 6.4 with a 3.18 FIP. By their runs above replacement measure it went Cole 69.7, Lynn 64.3, Verlander 61.4. Hmm. Interesting. Yet Lynn was far better at home than on the road, while Verlander was better at home than Lynn at home and better on the road than Lynn on the road. Both were almost perfect 50/50 h/a split. So if you took just their away games, which should basically even out for outside factors, JV was much better. Lynn: 17 starts, 6-10 3.84 ERA (1.253 WHIP) JV: 17 starts 11-2 2.82 ERA (0.761 WHIP)
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 30, 2019 12:59:35 GMT -5
Expected runs allowed, mostly based on park effects but also defense, opponent quality, etc. For Lynn, it was 6.25 per nine innings, for Verlander it's 4.95, and for Cole it was 4.88. Ballpark in Arlington is a very, very, very hard place to pitch. Based on that it rated Cole 72 runs above replacement, Lynn 78, and Verlander 81. Fangraphs bases their WAR on FIP rather than RAA, so it has Cole better than Verlander. But the park effects also show up: Lynn is a 6.8 fWAR with a 3.85 FIP, while Verlander is at 6.4 with a 3.18 FIP. By their runs above replacement measure it went Cole 69.7, Lynn 64.3, Verlander 61.4. Hmm. Interesting. Yet Lynn was far better at home than on the road, while Verlander was better at home than Lynn at home and better on the road than Lynn on the road. Both were almost perfect 50/50 h/a split. So if you took just their away games, which should basically even out for outside factors, JV was much better. Lynn: 17 starts, 6-10 3.84 ERA (1.253 WHIP) JV: 17 starts 11-2 2.82 ERA (0.761 WHIP) The games at home count though. If your best games come in the hardest pitching environments, it doesn't make sense to just iron those out and only count the away games. The fact that he pitched better in Arlington doesn't change the fact it's a harder place to pitch, it makes it more impressive that he pitched well there.
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