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4/1-4/4 Red Sox @ Athletics Series Thread
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 3, 2019 12:52:30 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 1h1 hour ago More Within that story, thanks to the magical tools of Baseball Savant, we know: 1) Sale's extension at pitch release on Tuesday was tied for his second lowest since the start of 2018, and 2) extension correlates pretty well for Sale to fastball swing/miss.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 3, 2019 12:55:00 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Apr 3, 2019 12:59:35 GMT -5
NESN didn't really show him running until he was beyond 1st. He was moving at a good clip and then took one slow step (I think he was trying to gauge where the ball was) and then he turned on the jets trying to make it to 3b. The hesitation was very slight, but that's all it took. He has been battling through a leg injury which is a bit of a factor, but it's also possible that he thought his ball was gone. Either way I don't remember seeing him job down the 1b line. The way the Sox are going they would have stranded him anyways. Also to those who want to think XB was dogging it, absolutely not. Cut it out. The entire stadium initially thought that drive was a HR, but Xander didn’t act that way. He ran hard. Literally half the fans on the 1B side (that’s how many Sox fans were there) were on their feet screaming, certain it was a HR. Then momentary mass confusion, about a second’s worth, when we realized it wasn’t. We had a better (elevated) view than Xander, (but not as clear as the TV view) and we didn’t know if it was caught or if it was a hard single or a double. When Xander figured it out and took off, a fan behind me said that’s the fastest home run trot he ever saw. That’s how confusing the play was from the 1B side. And finally, nobody in that stadium thought that throw was possible. If the TV saw him hesitate at any point, there was very good reason, as he had no easy decisions there. That’s just how the whole game went. I watched the replay. He did not run hard until he was almost to first base. I'm also confused by how the two bolded lines can both be true - he ran hard the whole way but only took off when he saw it wasn't caught? (There's no scenario where a ball hit to that part of the park is a single.)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 3, 2019 13:04:10 GMT -5
Our manager just said this is the plan, so I'm going to trust him. It makes perfect sense given Sales history. Have him barely pitch in spring training, then use April as Spring Training while telling him to hold back and try throwing 90%. Let him slowly build up as the weather gets warmer which always helps pitchers. I'm not going to look it up, but it seems he threw the fastball a lot less than normal, which would back up Cora that this is a plan.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 3, 2019 13:14:42 GMT -5
Did not see the replay. Thanks for the info. My point is that, from where I sat, Xander was not dogging it, and that In the confusion of the moment, Xander (at ground level) had a worse view than either you or I did. That was a bona fide HR until it, surprisingly, wasn’t. In response, a good bounce and throw to second from that spot would prevent a double, hence a hard single, just as surely as a remarkable throw to 3B turned that double into an out.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 3, 2019 13:50:07 GMT -5
Our manager just said this is the plan, so I'm going to trust him. It makes perfect sense given Sales history. Have him barely pitch in spring training, then use April as Spring Training while telling him to hold back and try throwing 90%. Let him slowly build up as the weather gets warmer which always helps pitchers. I'm not going to look it up, but it seems he threw the fastball a lot less than normal, which would back up Cora that this is a plan. To the first bolded point, It's Cora's job to lie about this stuff. To the second, using the fastball less is also consistent with the fastball being garbage and everyone knowing it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 3, 2019 13:55:38 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 3, 2019 14:18:55 GMT -5
I suppose no early-season freakout would be complete without me popping in to note that old buddy Yoan Moncada has doubled and walked twice against Kluber today to get his season line to .444/.524/.778.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 3, 2019 14:19:33 GMT -5
Which could be true, yet they just gave him a massive deal. Did a physical, have been monitoring him for 6 months. If he's not even close to normal or healthy that means the Red Sox GM and Doctors have a lot of explaining to do.
If not for that contract and physical I might be more worried. As of right now I will remain upbeat and not automatically think the worse. I just don't think the Red Sox are that stupid, yet we'll see.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 3, 2019 14:24:36 GMT -5
I suppose no early-season freakout would be complete without me popping in to note that old buddy Yoan Moncada has doubled and walked twice against Kluber today to get his season line to .444/.524/.778. Not funny, insert salt into open cut. What's next Logan Allen no hitter? Haha.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 3, 2019 14:30:33 GMT -5
Which could be true, yet they just gave him a massive deal. Did a physical, have been monitoring him for 6 months. If he's not even close to normal or healthy that means the Red Sox GM and Doctors have a lot of explaining to do. If not for that contract and physical I might be more worried. As of right now I will remain upbeat and not automatically think the worse. I just don't think the Red Sox are that stupid, yet we'll see. I'll say that this is probably the most convincing argument that he's physically ok, I just don't have a ton of confidence that even the best medical information can ever really tell you when a pitcher is going to succumb to injury. And really, the information that I'm going off of isn't authoritative either. If there was a way tell exactly when a pitcher is hurt or is about to be hurt, baseball would be a very different sport. I'm just saying, there are a certain number of red flags we can look for, and Sale is flying damn near all of them right now.
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Post by dirtdog on Apr 3, 2019 15:12:42 GMT -5
I suppose no early-season freakout would be complete without me popping in to note that old buddy Yoan Moncada has doubled and walked twice against Kluber today to get his season line to .444/.524/.778. I am going to need to see a much bigger sample size going forward before I think anything much one way or another about Moncada. Right now I still question whether he has the plate discipline to be a consistent major league hitter. Anyway he is gone and from a big picture standpoint if you asked me if I would trade Moncada for a WS championship I'd say hell yes, and that is how I will look at it going forward no matter what.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 3, 2019 15:15:10 GMT -5
I suppose no early-season freakout would be complete without me popping in to note that old buddy Yoan Moncada has doubled and walked twice against Kluber today to get his season line to .444/.524/.778. I am going to need to see a much bigger sample size going forward before I think anything much one way or another about Moncada. Right now I still question whether he has the plate discipline to be a consistent major league hitter. Anyway he is gone and from a big picture standpoint if you asked me if I would trade Moncada for a WS championship I'd say hell yes, and that is how I will look at it going forward no matter what. 'Twas tongue-in-cheek - I'd do that trade again 100 times over. Though I do think people who were ready to write him off after last season were a bit premature. And he did jack a 438 foot homer in the time since I posted that.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 3, 2019 16:26:40 GMT -5
On the other hand, despite rust showing in a BB and HBP, he gave up 3 hits and 1ER in 6IP. If he is still powering up after a difficult Sept - Oct and truncated ST, then we can just as likely expect a typical Sale run of excellence. From my view not far up on the 1B side he looked confident and dominant, which he largely was. Down by the bullpen for pre game warmup he was in the low 90’s and absolutely hitting the mark on every pitch. He sure didn’t look hurt. A couple of A’s fans next to me discussed how they are “screwed” tonight, and they were pretty close to being right. Last night’s Sale + a couple of runs borrowed from the Seattle games, and its a win. We are close to being able to exhale. I mean, when he was down 2-3 MPH after his first start, this was at least a fairly plausible explanation. But last night he was down basically a full 5 mph, which A) no one really ramps up five whole tics during spring training and B) if he is still ramping up... why is he moving in the wrong direction?! His velo was much worse last night compared to his first start. That to me really makes it hard to buy into the short spring training explanation. It's either a major mechanical issue, or he's hurt. He managed to pitch decently last night, but again, zero swings and misses on the fastball. That's absolutely unsustainable. or he is deciding to learn how to pitch without using all the gas....it is a possibility
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Apr 3, 2019 16:28:05 GMT -5
I’m paying attention but not freaking out yet.
There are any number of non-catastrophic reasons for a two-start drop in velocity. If this is still going on in a month, I’ll be concerned. But right now, there are just too many possibilities for me to just automatically assume that the worst possibility is the correct one.
Personally, my guess is that he just isn’t back in the groove yet after a very brief spring training. But that guess is worth no more or less than that of anybody else.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 3, 2019 16:28:47 GMT -5
Which could be true, yet they just gave him a massive deal. Did a physical, have been monitoring him for 6 months. If he's not even close to normal or healthy that means the Red Sox GM and Doctors have a lot of explaining to do. If not for that contract and physical I might be more worried. As of right now I will remain upbeat and not automatically think the worse. I just don't think the Red Sox are that stupid, yet we'll see. I'll say that this is probably the most convincing argument that he's physically ok, I just don't have a ton of confidence that even the best medical information can ever really tell you when a pitcher is going to succumb to injury. And really, the information that I'm going off of isn't authoritative either. If there was a way tell exactly when a pitcher is hurt or is about to be hurt, baseball would be a very different sport. I'm just saying, there are a certain number of red flags we can look for, and Sale is flying damn near all of them right now. Then why did you ignore the Speier tweet with the possible explanation? It clearly showed that his extension is at its worst right now and that's mechanical not medical.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 3, 2019 16:34:44 GMT -5
I am going to need to see a much bigger sample size going forward before I think anything much one way or another about Moncada. Right now I still question whether he has the plate discipline to be a consistent major league hitter. Anyway he is gone and from a big picture standpoint if you asked me if I would trade Moncada for a WS championship I'd say hell yes, and that is how I will look at it going forward no matter what. 'Twas tongue-in-cheek - I'd do that trade again 100 times over. Though I do think people who were ready to write him off after last season were a bit premature. And he did jack a 438 foot homer in the time since I posted that. I think things are more striking now that Sale's health is still in question and perhaps Moncada is coming into his own. The trade has looked so lopsided over the past two years. The Red Sox get an ace who closes out the World Series in style while the White Sox get a strikeout prone defensive question and a guy needing TJ surgery (and refresh my memory - was he suspended for PEDs?). But Moncada has a ton of natural talent - reminds me kind of a raw Sammy Sosa who looked like he'd only be a .250 hitting low OBP guy with raw power but perhaps wouldn't get the most out of that power in a game. Moncada is a strong kid with good wheels. His problem is striking out a ton. I think sometimes people think it's a given that his K rate will always be way, way too high, but with maturity I think he can cut down his K rate to a reasonable rate, and he will K, but it's also because he gets into deep counts and draws his walks. As he matures he'll probably continue to walk but he might strike earlier in the count instead of being passive. Moncada probably has some 30-30 seasons in him and he might K at a reasonable rate and hit for a .280is average and when you factor in the walks you're looking at an OBP in his best seasons perhaps around .375. He probably will OPS .900 in some of his best seasons, and he's young. With Kopech, if he gets healthy, you figure if all goes right he's an ace. If not, he could be a weapon in relief. This deal will wind up more like the Boddicker for Anderson and Schilling deal, where all parties make out, team and player, or pehaps more like the Beckett and Lowell for Hanley and Sanchez deal, but the Sox can't complain. Flags fly forever and Sale was a huge part of that and the cool thing is that he's around long enough that even if there is a year or two for TJ surgery there's still time for him to recover and perhaps regain a good deal of what he's been - and that's a worse case scenario. He could be just ramping up as Levangie and Cora have stated, but I think it's really concerning that his velocity has dipped that low and gone in the wrong direction. I'll withhold judgment for a little while longer but while the theory of preserving him makes all the sense in the world, I don't feel comfortable in saying that he's fine and that there's nothing to see here. I'll hold off on the panic, but like everybody else, keep a close on the situation. We'll know one way or the other by June if not sooner.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 3, 2019 16:47:07 GMT -5
I mean, when he was down 2-3 MPH after his first start, this was at least a fairly plausible explanation. But last night he was down basically a full 5 mph, which A) no one really ramps up five whole tics during spring training and B) if he is still ramping up... why is he moving in the wrong direction?! His velo was much worse last night compared to his first start. That to me really makes it hard to buy into the short spring training explanation. It's either a major mechanical issue, or he's hurt. He managed to pitch decently last night, but again, zero swings and misses on the fastball. That's absolutely unsustainable. or he is deciding to learn how to pitch without using all the gas....it is a possibility He's not succeeding in that if they're making contact on literally every fastball.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 3, 2019 16:55:44 GMT -5
I'll say that this is probably the most convincing argument that he's physically ok, I just don't have a ton of confidence that even the best medical information can ever really tell you when a pitcher is going to succumb to injury. And really, the information that I'm going off of isn't authoritative either. If there was a way tell exactly when a pitcher is hurt or is about to be hurt, baseball would be a very different sport. I'm just saying, there are a certain number of red flags we can look for, and Sale is flying damn near all of them right now. Then why did you ignore the Speier tweet with the possible explanation? It clearly showed that his extension is at its worst right now and that's mechanical not medical. I'm not ignoring it. I've said all along, including in the post you're quoting, that I'm not sure he's hurt. What I am sure of is that he's displaying all of the signs of a guy who's hurt. One of which is that his mechanics are screwed up, which is something that can happen independently of an injury, but can also be caused by an injury. Guys alter their mechanics to pitch through something (or try to, at least) all the time.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Apr 3, 2019 17:49:17 GMT -5
MFY lost their second home series in a row this time to the Tigers lolololol Seriously, that's WAY more embarassing then our guys start of the season! The Orioles AND the Tigers? hahaha
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 3, 2019 18:02:29 GMT -5
Betts RF, Benintendi LF, Devers 3B, Martinez DH, Moreland 1B, Núñez 2B, Holt SS, Swihart C, Bradley Jr. CF, and Eovaldi RHP.
Xander out after the foul ball off his leg. But I'm pretty annoyed that Cora has seemingly abandoned Betts' in the two spot...why.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Apr 3, 2019 18:13:03 GMT -5
I'm pretty annoyed that Cora has seemingly abandoned Betts' in the two spot...why.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 3, 2019 20:08:18 GMT -5
I'm pretty annoyed that Cora has seemingly abandoned Betts' in the two spot...why. If he continues to progress as he has been, Pedroia may the leadoff guy by the end of May on the days he plays.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 3, 2019 21:03:11 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 1h1 hour ago More Within that story, thanks to the magical tools of Baseball Savant, we know: 1) Sale's extension at pitch release on Tuesday was tied for his second lowest since the start of 2018, and 2) extension correlates pretty well for Sale to fastball swing/miss. Just read this article and it’s at least encouraging. Let’s hope the velo comes back, even gradually, and he ramps up evenly to finish strong.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 3, 2019 21:09:55 GMT -5
'Twas tongue-in-cheek - I'd do that trade again 100 times over. Though I do think people who were ready to write him off after last season were a bit premature. And he did jack a 438 foot homer in the time since I posted that. I think things are more striking now that Sale's health is still in question and perhaps Moncada is coming into his own. The trade has looked so lopsided over the past two years. The Red Sox get an ace who closes out the World Series in style while the White Sox get a strikeout prone defensive question and a guy needing TJ surgery (and refresh my memory - was he suspended for PEDs?). But Moncada has a ton of natural talent - reminds me kind of a raw Sammy Sosa who looked like he'd only be a .250 hitting low OBP guy with raw power but perhaps wouldn't get the most out of that power in a game. Moncada is a strong kid with good wheels. His problem is striking out a ton. I think sometimes people think it's a given that his K rate will always be way, way too high, but with maturity I think he can cut down his K rate to a reasonable rate, and he will K, but it's also because he gets into deep counts and draws his walks. As he matures he'll probably continue to walk but he might strike earlier in the count instead of being passive. Moncada probably has some 30-30 seasons in him and he might K at a reasonable rate and hit for a .280is average and when you factor in the walks you're looking at an OBP in his best seasons perhaps around .375. He probably will OPS .900 in some of his best seasons, and he's young. With Kopech, if he gets healthy, you figure if all goes right he's an ace. If not, he could be a weapon in relief. This deal will wind up more like the Boddicker for Anderson and Schilling deal, where all parties make out, team and player, or pehaps more like the Beckett and Lowell for Hanley and Sanchez deal, but the Sox can't complain. Flags fly forever and Sale was a huge part of that and the cool thing is that he's around long enough that even if there is a year or two for TJ surgery there's still time for him to recover and perhaps regain a good deal of what he's been - and that's a worse case scenario. He could be just ramping up as Levangie and Cora have stated, but I think it's really concerning that his velocity has dipped that low and gone in the wrong direction. I'll withhold judgment for a little while longer but while the theory of preserving him makes all the sense in the world, I don't feel comfortable in saying that he's fine and that there's nothing to see here. I'll hold off on the panic, but like everybody else, keep a close on the situation. We'll know one way or the other by June if not sooner. Kopech had a suspension for “PEDs,” but the substance in question is an adrenergic (think adrenaline) agonist, oxillofrine, which supposedly boosts lipid metabolism through alpha-3 receptors. It has essentially no CNS effects and its utility in enhancing performance is highly questionable, based on the papers I’ve seen. It’s sort of a silly drug to even look for, and almost certainly has no “real” benefit. It’s also widely included in supplements and often not listed, so it’s likewise extremely believable that he had no idea he took it (ie, he probably had no idea he did anything wrong and almost certainly wasn’t after an “unfair edge.”)
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