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nomar
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Posts: 10,794
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Post by nomar on Feb 3, 2023 22:19:46 GMT -5
This is the pivot point for the Red Sox this year too. Lets hope it’s fun
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Post by bosox904 on Feb 3, 2023 23:16:49 GMT -5
I know this is a very silly sample size and really doesn't mean anything, but here it is anyway. In the history of baseball only 7 times has a player 22 or younger posted a BB% of 20% or better in 90 or more PA. Willie McGee(he was a pitcher) in 1891(145 PA), Ted Williams in 1941(606 PA), Willie McGee again in 1890(90 PA, Juan Soto in 2021 and 2020(654 and 196 PA, Bernie Carbo in 1970(467 PA) and Triston Casas last year in 95 PA.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 3, 2023 23:23:10 GMT -5
FWIW Devers had the following wRC+'s vs. lefties from 2018 - 2020: 64, 89, 65. The last two years he's been at 103 and 104. I think it shows both that guys can learn to hit lefties at the big league level and that they can still be useful while they're learning to. Steve Kwan, Alex Verdugo, Kyle Schwarber are three other examples of good big league hitters with career below 100 wRC+'s vs. lefties. Remember David Ortiz looked kind of done in '09 at 33 and then figured out lefties and hung on for 6 more years? That was incredible. In '11, '12, and '14 he had higher averages against Lefties than Righties. So glad that dude made the HOF. My recollection is that he talked to Adrian Gonzalez one spring and started going back to left-center with power again.
Either way, I really hope that Devers and Papi are good comps for Casas. I also really hope that he's not Verdugo (who was almost as decorated a prospect as Triston).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 4, 2023 0:23:24 GMT -5
Remember David Ortiz looked kind of done in '09 at 33 and then figured out lefties and hung on for 6 more years? That was incredible. In '11, '12, and '14 he had higher averages against Lefties than Righties. So glad that dude made the HOF. My recollection is that he talked to Adrian Gonzalez one spring and started going back to left-center with power again. Either way, I really hope that Devers and Papi are good comps for Casas. I also really hope that he's not Verdugo (who was almost as decorated a prospect as Triston).
Ortiz also mentioned that a friend of his noticed that he developed a loop in his swing after he came back in 2008 after breaking his hammate bone, which messed up Ortiz's timing. Eventually once he resolved that issue, he became productive. I do remember reading that he watched Adrian Gonzalez and adopted a bit of his style going to LF, but there was also a menacing threat made to him if he didn't start going to the opposite field. Dustin Pedroia threatened to whoop him if he kept pulling the ball. Given the dire consequences of what could happen to him if he continued to hit everything to RF, he started to go oppo field, and went back to being a .300 hitter again.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 4, 2023 17:02:10 GMT -5
It would be nice, but think it'll be tough in general for a first baseman to win ROY unless he hits 30+HRs and has a high OBP. Specifically for Casas, ZiPS has him projected as a 1.7 fWAR player, which makes this a tough ROY candidate, at least if he performs near the projection. Along with Gunnar Henderson (ZiPs has him at a 5.0 fWAR player this year), this class has Anthony Volpe (ZiPS 3.5 fWAR), Jordan Westburg (ZiPS 2.7), Bo Naylor (ZiPS 2.3) and, of course "rookie" Matsataka Yoshida (ZiPS 3.7). Casas will basically have to be Joey Votto with 30 or more bombs to get this done. I'm up for that, but I'd be elated if he had a .350 OBP with 20 HRs and 45 Doubles.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,029
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Post by cdj on Feb 4, 2023 17:44:20 GMT -5
I think he’s gonna help Devers out a lot. Both in the lineup and in the field.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Feb 5, 2023 10:09:29 GMT -5
I know this is a very silly sample size and really doesn't mean anything, but here it is anyway. In the history of baseball only 7 times has a player 22 or younger posted a BB% of 20% or better in 90 or more PA. Willie McGee(he was a pitcher) in 1891(145 PA), Ted Williams in 1941(606 PA), Willie McGee again in 1890(90 PA, Juan Soto in 2021 and 2020(654 and 196 PA, Bernie Carbo in 1970(467 PA) and Triston Casas last year in 95 PA. I think the key to his success lies in how quickly he makes his ability to get a hit not worth getting him to chase pitches. He has great command of the strike zone as you pointed out. But when pitchers realize he's not going to chase pitches outside the strike zone when do they start pounding the strike zone against him. He's got to cause enough damage with his bat and balls in play to offset that. I think he will get there and even think he can make an all-star game at his peak but when is that 2 or 3 years from now?? If he can develop more quickly with BA/SLG% then the ceiling for him grows. I'll stand by Ted Williams assertion, don't judge a batter until he's had 1,000 at bats or nearly two full years.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 23, 2023 3:41:51 GMT -5
Part 1 of TBD ...
So, how good was Casas after he flipped the switch starting September 22? OK, let's back up a step. Is it OK to just toss out what happened previously? Does that trick ever work? Age (July 1) Bad PA wRC+ Good PA wRC+ Gain OPS Player X 22 y, 10 m 41 -51 57 108 159 .242 to .806 Casas 22 y, 5 m 44 24 51 203 179 .441 to 1.096 Do I have to add that Player X had a 117 wRC+ the next year, won ROY, and was MVP the year after? Or that he's currently going after the MOD award (Most Awesome Dad)?
So that's an encouraging comp. Next: where he ranked in that stretch among Sox players, and among all of MLB in xwOBA ... with an aside re Raffy Devers.
(Yeah, I'm crazy busy at present.)
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 23, 2023 5:51:44 GMT -5
It would be nice, but think it'll be tough in general for a first baseman to win ROY unless he hits 30+HRs and has a high OBP. Specifically for Casas, ZiPS has him projected as a 1.7 fWAR player, which makes this a tough ROY candidate, at least if he performs near the projection. Along with Gunnar Henderson (ZiPs has him at a 5.0 fWAR player this year), this class has Anthony Volpe (ZiPS 3.5 fWAR), Jordan Westburg (ZiPS 2.7), Bo Naylor (ZiPS 2.3) and, of course "rookie" Matsataka Yoshida (ZiPS 3.7). Casas will basically have to be Joey Votto with 30 or more bombs to get this done. I'm up for that, but I'd be elated if he had a .350 OBP with 20 HRs and 45 Doubles. Projections systems are by design unintelligent. Projections for Casas are basically laughable.
First, they are unaware of the numbers I just posted; ignoring or even giving half-weight his first 44 MLB PA would make him project rather better.
But the real fly in the ointment here is that by all reports, Casas in the minors was (in the big picture) not trying to get the best results. He was trying to become the best hitter possible. We know he spent a lot of time developing a different two-strike approach which, it now seems, is something he wants to have in his back pocket for certain situations only.
He didn't hit a lot of homers in the high minors, and every scout that saw him said that his in-game power would likely be better in MLB, once he started to try to get the best results.
Here's a great set of stats: his HR / Contact, the best measure of in-game power.
.058 -- 2021 .055 -- 2022 before call-up .094 -- MLB.
Now, the sample size is so small that the increase is not significant (p = .36). But if I adjusted his MLB numbers relative to the expected drop-off from his high-minors numbers, it would come a lot closer. You also have to factor in the eerie consistency of the first two numbers, which makes the third number look a lot less random, and, most importantly, that the scouts all called this. There's every reason to think this is more or less for real.
And I think that almost nobody is factoring in his 80 makeup. That's one more thing he has in common with Pedroia.
I'm with David L. (whom I go way, way back with, almost two decades now) on this.
Part of that is that I see two related red flags for Gunnar Henderson.
First, he faced eight teams, 4 playoff teams and 4 failures, and all the former had better-than-average pitching (as measured by wxOBA allowed) and all the latter were below average. The diving line is clear.
The 4 playoff teams combined for a .295 xwOBA. GH had 71 PA against them and put up a .292.
The 4 teams that missed the playoffs combined for a .325 xwOBA allowed. GH had 60 PA against them and had a .398.
Totally average against good pitching, feasted against bad. And that usually corresponds to bad situational hitting.
Well, he was -2.1 wins per 600 PA. His 0.8 fWAR gets knocked down to 0.3.
In contrast, all of Casas's good hitting was against the AL East (more details to follow). He was +3.3 wins per 600 PA situationally, which turned his fWAR (and you can't make this up) from 0.3 to 0.8.
Now, the ROY voters are not going to know these splits if they happen somewhat again, but if the Sox finish ahead of the O's and Casas has just a couple of big hits that make the highlights, and Henderson doesn't, and there's a big RBI gap between the two ... that accomplishes roughly the same thing.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 23, 2023 11:49:56 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2023 12:11:44 GMT -5
Lol, he "learned a valuable lesson." Was it that "traditionalists are the world's biggest snowflakes and you have to go out of your way to coddle them at all times"?
Anyway, my takeaway is that he's an incredibly cool dude, both eccentric and unflappable, and I am very psyched to root for him. Between him, Devers, Kiké, Verdugo, and Turner, this lineup has a lot of personality. Seems like the kind of loose, fun group that might be able to avoid pressing or getting in their own heads like they seemed to do last year at times.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 23, 2023 12:23:13 GMT -5
You can throw Jansen in there also. The notion of some sort of hierarchy with mandates sent down from on high is old school. That school didn't do a lot of winning last season as you say. I would just hope he stays himself. That self seems to have a plan, one carried out on its own terms.
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Feb 23, 2023 13:23:40 GMT -5
Lol, he "learned a valuable lesson." Was it that "traditionalists are the world's biggest snowflakes and you have to go out of your way to coddle them at all times"? Anyway, my takeaway is that he's an incredibly cool dude, both eccentric and unflappable, and I am very psyched to root for him. Between him, Devers, Kiké, Verdugo, and Turner, this lineup has a lot of personality. Seems like the kind of loose, fun group that might be able to avoid pressing or getting in their own heads like they seemed to do last year at times.
Baseball purists: "No emotion, no personality, and no visible enjoyment of life at any time!" Also baseball purists: "Why don't young people want to play baseball anymore?"
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Post by ixnayexxus on Feb 23, 2023 13:45:47 GMT -5
Lol, he "learned a valuable lesson." Was it that "traditionalists are the world's biggest snowflakes and you have to go out of your way to coddle them at all times"? Anyway, my takeaway is that he's an incredibly cool dude, both eccentric and unflappable, and I am very psyched to root for him. Between him, Devers, Kiké, Verdugo, and Turner, this lineup has a lot of personality. Seems like the kind of loose, fun group that might be able to avoid pressing or getting in their own heads like they seemed to do last year at times.
Baseball purists: "No emotion, no personality, and no visible enjoyment of life at any time!" Also baseball purists: "Why don't young people want to play baseball anymore?" Sadly, I'm seeing this with kids at the youth levels as well, with coaches micromanaging their players at every turn and moving them around the field like chess pieces on a board.
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 23, 2023 14:08:33 GMT -5
Baseball purists: "No emotion, no personality, and no visible enjoyment of life at any time!" Also baseball purists: "Why don't young people want to play baseball anymore?" Sadly, I'm seeing this with kids at the youth levels as well, with coaches micromanaging their players at every turn and moving them around the field like chess pieces on a board. That's because more then ever parents expect perfection and apply a ton of pressure and think they know everything....like people on this forum hahaha. They don't of allow their kids be kids so coaching is no longer fun.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2023 14:30:38 GMT -5
Part 1 of TBD ...
So, how good was Casas after he flipped the switch starting September 22? OK, let's back up a step. Is it OK to just toss out what happened previously? Does that trick ever work? Age (July 1) Bad PA wRC+ Good PA wRC+ Gain OPS Player X 22 y, 10 m 41 -51 57 108 159 .242 to .806 Casas 22 y, 5 m 44 24 51 203 179 .441 to 1.096 Do I have to add that Player X had a 117 wRC+ the next year, won ROY, and was MVP the year after? Or that he's currently going after the MOD award (Most Awesome Dad)?
So that's an encouraging comp. Next: where he ranked in that stretch among Sox players, and among all of MLB in xwOBA ... with an aside re Raffy Devers.
(Yeah, I'm crazy busy at present.)
I don't know why we even have to slice his performance into microsamples like this, to be honest. He had a 120 wRC+ as is, and anyone who saw him play - or can read a stat line - saw what ridiculous BABIP luck he had (.208 overall). Just normalizing the BABIP to something non-crazy, like .250, would have hgiven him an extra four hits; if they were all singles that would have been like a .260/.400/.460 slash line. That's basically Juan Soto last year.
In short, he was great. The only real question is how the league adjusts and how he adjusts to the adjustments - the same question as we'd have for any rookie who started off hot.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2023 14:51:22 GMT -5
I'm seeing folks on Red Sox Twitter speculate on who it is, which just seems kinda spiteful and unnecessary. It feels like this story has been taken from "some veterans told Casas to cut out some stuff they thought was weird" and been blown out of proportion into "Casas was shoved in a burlap bag and beaten with reeds."
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 23, 2023 14:58:27 GMT -5
I'm seeing folks on Red Sox Twitter speculate on who it is, which just seems kinda spiteful and unnecessary. Look nothing is going to stop me from indulging in the joy of speculating about who did it.
I'll just say that it hasn't exactly been difficult to figure out which players are Cotillo sources over time.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Feb 23, 2023 15:11:16 GMT -5
It's exactly the locker room/ club house "Faux pax" thing and maybe some Vets trying to push back on small things they think might be a distraction.. Like this:
"You have foot fungus on your shower shoes! when you make it to the show, you can let the fungus grow back on your shower shoes and maybe the press will call you 'colorful.' Here in the minors... IT MEANS YOU'RE A SLOB"
except its the opposite here with Casas, "don't be colorful" this is the show.
I think it's two things, Casas's youth and goofy, individualistic nature. Neither of which I'm in any hurry to lose.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2023 15:13:35 GMT -5
I'm seeing folks on Red Sox Twitter speculate on who it is, which just seems kinda spiteful and unnecessary. Look nothing is going to stop me from indulging in the joy of speculating about who did it.
I'll just say that it hasn't exactly been difficult to figure out which players are Cotillo sources over time.
I feel that - I have my own guesses to what the dynamic was in the clubhouse, but there are certain things speculated out there over the last few months trying to label formerly percieved standup dudes as toxic people just because the season ended badly, and I've seen a few folks go too far with it. At least it doesn't seem like Casas was too fazed by the feedback by the way he was talking about it, which was nice to see. I would assume Cotillo has a great relationship with Verdugo and Duran from his history with The Mexican Times.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2023 15:56:31 GMT -5
I'm seeing folks on Red Sox Twitter speculate on who it is, which just seems kinda spiteful and unnecessary. Look nothing is going to stop me from indulging in the joy of speculating about who did it.
I'll just say that it hasn't exactly been difficult to figure out which players are Cotillo sources over time.
Well don't keep all the joy to yourself... who was it?
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 23, 2023 16:09:42 GMT -5
Cotillo had a lot of free agency updates about the two pitchers that Plawecki caught
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Feb 23, 2023 16:30:17 GMT -5
Cotillo had a lot of free agency updates about the two pitchers that Plawecki caught Well plus the Kiké quote about this year's team and a certain pitcher's "transaction"
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2023 17:08:07 GMT -5
Cotillo had a lot of free agency updates about the two pitchers that Plawecki caught Well plus the Kiké quote about this year's team and a certain pitcher's "transaction" Dangit, you all are speaking in code like a bunch of socialites at a country club tea time... I just want the gossip! What quote? What transaction?
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 23, 2023 17:21:42 GMT -5
I'm seeing folks on Red Sox Twitter speculate on who it is, which just seems kinda spiteful and unnecessary. It feels like this story has been taken from "some veterans told Casas to cut out some stuff they thought was weird" and been blown out of proportion into "Casas was shoved in a burlap bag and beaten with reeds." Idk, spiteful and unnecessary or not, I'd like to know who it was so I can boo them whenever they come back to town. The likes of "Are you f---- kidding me" or "Don't do that, it's weird" in reaction to harmless eccentricities is middle-school-bully-level bs that I don't stand for. And in the end he's forced to act like he was in the wrong so as to restore the harmony that he didn't break in the first place, like give me a break.
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