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4/26-4/28 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 28, 2019 14:32:17 GMT -5
first defensive mistake for Chavis...you couldn't turn that dp should've held it that is just experience and not skilled related though
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 28, 2019 14:37:30 GMT -5
Can you 'hover' around .105 ?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 28, 2019 14:38:10 GMT -5
We've yet to play inspired baseball at all this season, with just a few exceptions. Our record is a spot on depiction of the team's performance.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,833
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Post by wcp3 on Apr 28, 2019 14:39:28 GMT -5
What a putrid baseball team.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 28, 2019 14:45:59 GMT -5
Devers is looking more like first baseman. Errors aren’t the be all and end all, far from it, but 8 in 28 games...
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Post by Guidas on Apr 28, 2019 14:53:13 GMT -5
Sox have to go .627 the rest of the way to win 95 games - not impossible, but highly improbable if their offense continues its anemic approach to hitting and scoring runs.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 28, 2019 14:55:38 GMT -5
Devers is looking more like first baseman. Errors aren’t the be all and end all, far from it, but 8 in 28 games... -8.6 UZR/150 (his small blip with good range is completely gone) -2 DRS Everything about his defense is bad. His defense cost Sale 2 runs and was a big reason why they lost today.
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 28, 2019 15:06:00 GMT -5
Devers is looking more like first baseman. Errors aren’t the be all and end all, far from it, but 8 in 28 games... -8.6 UZR/150 (his small blip with good range is completely gone) -2 DRS Everything about his defense is bad. His defense cost Sale 2 runs and was a big reason why they lost today. Sale could have also not given up a 420 foot flyball to the next batter; and Jackie could've made the catch as he got to the spot
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 28, 2019 15:22:49 GMT -5
-8.6 UZR/150 (his small blip with good range is completely gone) -2 DRS Everything about his defense is bad. His defense cost Sale 2 runs and was a big reason why they lost today. Sale could have also not given up a 420 foot flyball to the next batter; and Jackie could've made the catch as he got to the spot Yeah, but the taylor made double play should have been made. If not, then at least get the lead runner. Team is collectively playing bad baseball to your point though.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 28, 2019 16:04:28 GMT -5
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Apr 28, 2019 18:02:12 GMT -5
We've yet to play inspired baseball at all this season, with just a few exceptions. Our record is a spot on depiction of the team's performance. One thing we have to admit: The team's struggles in the first part of this season are a total team effort. It seems that ALL aspects of their performance have deteriorated from last season. All batting stats down across the board. Power way down. Starting pitching is a mess. Bullpen is too. Defense is much leakier. 2-out hits are nowhere to be found. What a surprise train wreck.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2019 18:38:15 GMT -5
Devers is looking more like first baseman. Errors aren’t the be all and end all, far from it, but 8 in 28 games... -8.6 UZR/150 (his small blip with good range is completely gone) -2 DRS Everything about his defense is bad. His defense cost Sale 2 runs and was a big reason why they lost today. He's had plus range every year in UZR, including this one. It's, you know, a separate column.
How is it that Devers cost Sale two runs when JBJ butchered the last out on the inning on a ball that for him is ordinarily routine? Even if you assume the ball to Devers was a GDP, the error costs you .070 Win Probability. JBJ's cost .178. It was 2 1/2 times as damaging. In terms of run values, Devers error on average costs you 0.82 runs, while JBJ's bad play costs 2.36, nearly three times as damaging.
JBJ's defensive metrics, BTW, are the worst on the team.
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Post by dirtdog on Apr 28, 2019 19:30:49 GMT -5
Team is currently 21st in runs scored right now. 27th in pitching. Honestly it is hard to believe their record isnt worse.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 28, 2019 21:15:26 GMT -5
Chicken and egg...is the poor offense impacting the defense...or vice versa...or the poor starting pitching impacting both due to pressure?
Cora has his work cut out for him solving this bizarre Rubik's cube of awfulness!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 28, 2019 21:42:50 GMT -5
Man, it's really hard to get into the Red Sox this year. I tuned it and saw they were already down 4-0 early in the game. My kid didn't even want to watch it with me so we opted for the Celtics, which was the better choice.
I've been told that I harp on this wonderful bullpen of ours too much, so today I won't. I'll talk about how much the offense and defense has sucked instead.
JBJ missed a ball that he normally catches. If he isn't playing gold glove caliber defense he isn't doing much to justify his presence in the lineup. I'm willing to wait on him because usually he does snap out of it, but I don't know that the Sox can wait until July this year for him to start hitting.
The Sox might be forced to take their greatest asset - their OF defense and mess it up by playing JDM in the OF a lot more often, which I guess opens up the DH spot for either Pearce, who didn't have spring training really, and it's showing or Chavis, who is at least hitting HRs. I suppose that's how they would get him everyday ABs - DH him once Holt and Pedroia (and Nunez to butcher 2b) return, but that doesn't help Chavis develop defensively, does it?
I'd like to see Moreland removed from the #3 spot. Other than that early burst, he's started his midseason slump early. I'd like to see Devers returned to the #3 spot. I do understand why Cora pulled him, but at some point you have to show some faith in him and the Devers he can be would work out in the #3 spot.
Defensively I guess you have to stick with Devers. He is still quite young and it's not like you have Brooks Robinson as a 3b option. Unfortunately, like Chavis, Devers will have to learn defense at the major league level.
And unfortunately that was the case for both players and it cost the Red Sox.
And once they get down they don't have the explosive offense to make you feel that they're coming back.
For those who want to trade JDM, this is a sneak preview of next year if he's gone. I get that the Sox offense wasn't exactly scorching hot even when he was raking, but that was because Mookie wasn't hitting.
The Sox lineup is different when both Mookie and JDM are raking. They need JDM and should work on keeping him once he opts out - which he's likely to do.
If the Sox continue to stink, their true trade bait will be Porcello, JBJ, Holt, Nunez, Moreland, and Pearce. Let's just say you're not going to rebuild a farm system dealing that away. Dealing JDM might get you one nice prospect - you'd hope they'd do better than Detroit did.
Hope it doesn't come to this. Intellectually I still think there's an 87 - 93 win team in there, but I don't have a ton of faith that it's going to happen. It'll be awhile before the Sox find .500.
Meanwhile they've undone a lot of the good they did last week - again at home, which is hard to believe, and only a rainout prevented the Sox from getting swept by Tampa. They really shut the Sox down.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 28, 2019 22:11:05 GMT -5
-8.6 UZR/150 (his small blip with good range is completely gone) -2 DRS Everything about his defense is bad. His defense cost Sale 2 runs and was a big reason why they lost today. He's had plus range every year in UZR, including this one. It's, you know, a separate column. He had a UZR of -4.6 in 2017, -4.5 in 2018, and -2.0 in 2019.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Apr 29, 2019 0:23:06 GMT -5
If i am not mistaken, didn't the Dodgers go the same route as the Red Sox? doesn't seem to be affecting them? There is no excuse for this atrocious play. the Yankees lost their entire lineup to injuries and yet they are killing it out west where the Sox couldn't do anything. the spring training approach has been an absolute disaster.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2019 6:56:28 GMT -5
He's had plus range every year in UZR, including this one. It's, you know, a separate column. He had a UZR of -4.6 in 2017, -4.5 in 2018, and -2.0 in 2019. Right, because he more than offset his plus range with an ungodly number of errors.
You had a little rant saying that he was negative in all aspects of fielding and that his "blip" of plus range was gone, and I pointed out that UZR actually separates range from errors and his range has always been positive and is positive again this year.
Your response is ... to ignore that and restate what a) everyone knows and b) is completely irrelevant to the discussion.
He also always has had plus arm strength.
Hmm, range and arm strength actually cover all the tools. Everything he lacks is skills (footwork, especially), but they are woefully inconsistent rather than bad.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 29, 2019 7:46:56 GMT -5
Could it be as simple as this - when a record setting (as in all time) team returns mostly intact, what they can't help but lack is the hunger....baseball is hard, and to do this all again just defies the odds in so many different ways.
Last year's team had the "it" factor - pretty much everything worked (and covered for those aspects of the team that didn't have "it").
Bring back most of the same players - but there is no way that motivation can be the same. Just one of those seasons - I don't expect them to fully turn it around, but do expect some improvement. I also expect some pretty big changes if this trajectory holds.
So, we have the Celtics, and the Bruins - this Red Sox team just may continue to be not fun at all to watch - but, they are still our Red Sox, and we will still watch.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 29, 2019 8:03:46 GMT -5
If i am not mistaken, didn't the Dodgers go the same route as the Red Sox? doesn't seem to be affecting them? There is no excuse for this atrocious play. the Yankees lost their entire lineup to injuries and yet they are killing it out west where the Sox couldn't do anything. the spring training approach has been an absolute disaster. Pretty much, although an argument can be made that the Red Sox went all out to win the World Series while the Dodgers - well they rested key relievers in an extremely key game and kind of treated the Series like any other series. Still, it doesn't excuse the Red Sox for playing this poorly. Soxfansince67 has it right in my opinion. Last year, it was like they were driven to win - like every freaking day. This year's team's thing is to coast at the beginning and hope to turn it on at toward the end and be in full throttle come October. Could work or (more likely at this point) bury them far behind in the standings and put a ton of pressure on them to be just about perfect in the 2nd half of the season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 29, 2019 8:12:56 GMT -5
He had a UZR of -4.6 in 2017, -4.5 in 2018, and -2.0 in 2019. Right, because he more than offset his plus range with an ungodly number of errors.
You had a little rant saying that he was negative in all aspects of fielding and that his "blip" of plus range was gone, and I pointed out that UZR actually separates range from errors and his range has always been positive and is positive again this year. Except Devers UZR is negative. His range is therefore a negative. There's nothing indicating Devers has plus range, except the fact that your telling me that it is (for some unknown and odd reason). He has negative defensive numbers across the entire UZR column. UZR, UZR/150. You name it, it's a negative.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 29, 2019 8:21:39 GMT -5
Right, because he more than offset his plus range with an ungodly number of errors.
You had a little rant saying that he was negative in all aspects of fielding and that his "blip" of plus range was gone, and I pointed out that UZR actually separates range from errors and his range has always been positive and is positive again this year. Except Devers UZR is negative. His range is therefore a negative. There's nothing indicating Devers has plus range, except the fact that your telling me that it is (for some unknown and odd reason). He has negative defensive numbers across the entire UZR column. UZR, UZR/150. You name it, it's a negative. UZR includes range, double play rating, arm, and errors. RngR is Range Runs Above Average. Devers RngR is +4.2 for his career. It's +0.4 this season so far. And it's a counting stat, not a rate stat, which is why it's so low at this point of the season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 29, 2019 8:30:21 GMT -5
Except Devers UZR is negative. His range is therefore a negative. There's nothing indicating Devers has plus range, except the fact that your telling me that it is (for some unknown and odd reason). He has negative defensive numbers across the entire UZR column. UZR, UZR/150. You name it, it's a negative. UZR includes range, double play rating, arm, and errors. RngR is Range Runs Above Average. Devers RngR is +4.2 for his career. It's +0.4 this season so far. And it's a counting stat, not a rate stat, which is why it's so low at this point of the season. Oh alright, yeap that's the only thing that's a plus for Devers defensively then. Everything else is bad. His arm is holding him back at third base. Him having above average range actually shows he can probably play first base well. I was under the understanding that UZR was more focused on range than other factors. Glad I can clear that up now. Thanks. I feel bad for the kid, but he looks out of position.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 29, 2019 8:56:27 GMT -5
I feel bad for the kid, but he looks out of position. And a year ago, Yoan Moncada couldn't lay off a breaking ball. There's a longstanding and fairly widespread consensus among scouts and other prospect watchers that Devers at least has the physical tools to be a decent MLB third baseman. All the statistical hairsplitting is besides the point as long as those fundamental factors (that he has the tools and that he's still super young) are still true.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 29, 2019 9:07:22 GMT -5
I feel bad for the kid, but he looks out of position. And a year ago, Yoan Moncada couldn't lay off a breaking ball. There's a longstanding and fairly widespread consensus among scouts and other prospect watchers that Devers at least has the physical tools to be a decent MLB third baseman. All the statistical hairsplitting is besides the point as long as those fundamental factors (that he has the tools and that he's still super young) are still true. I don't see it. His arm accuracy was rated really poorly last year and has looked to have gotten worse (we won't get this year's numbers until the end of this year). His release is also rated very poorly. Both of these things seem to be headed in the wrong direction eye test wise, like regressing instead of progressing. Getting the ball out of the glove and throwing it are huge problems that aren't going to be solved overnight. Certainly isn't getting fixed this season. Moncada always put up good at bats regardless of his offspeed struggles and it's one month. Like a position switch needs to be considered in the future. Youk was once a third baseman turned gold glove first baseman. What would be the problem with that if you thought that was possible for Devers?
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