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6/17-6/19 Red Sox @ Twins Series Thread
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Post by orion09 on Jun 19, 2019 22:03:32 GMT -5
I mean, a number 4 starter isn't garbage? Pretty valuable piece still. The poster never implied he was garbage. I think the issue is that it’s an unreasonably negative (rhetorical) question whose presumptive answer is unsupported by the actual data. Seems to me the implication was, in fact, that he was garbage. Why else would you call a guy who’s been basically a strong 3 something less? Also, I give huge props to Eddie for turning things around and going 7 when they needed it. It might not be a “quality start,” but it ended up being pretty damn good. That was a solid bounce back against a very good team. Personally, his leading question made me realize I was actually unsure how good ERod has been this year, so I enjoyed the opportunity to do a bit of research and find out.
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dd
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Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jun 19, 2019 22:06:36 GMT -5
2nd 30 pitch inning for a Twins pitcher. Pretty unusual for a reliever.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 19, 2019 22:07:49 GMT -5
Damn Baldelli is throwing this guy to the wolves. It's his first dang big league appearance, ha !!!
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Post by telson13 on Jun 19, 2019 22:09:33 GMT -5
Chavis and JBJ can...should?? go oppo field every AB. Great stuff .. Chavis showing good ability to adjust . He is (hopefully) here to stay Definitely looks like he is turning the corner. He gave us all some crazy high expectations with that start, and maybe some irrational fears with the fall. But it seems he’s gonna settle in as a pretty good player at a position of great need, which he’s fielding increasingly well. Def one of the high points of this season.
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dd
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Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jun 19, 2019 22:10:52 GMT -5
Why does this game feel like post season? i do know better. Probably should have skipped a drink tonight.
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Post by cheers on Jun 19, 2019 22:11:05 GMT -5
Oooo...perfect situational example coming up. Watch Eddie cough up this lead. This is your 2019 iteration, folks. Ughh...I really thought Rodriguez would turn a corner this year. So, SO wrong. He got out of it, but it wasn't pretty lol. Ed is what he is, and what he is always going to be - a not durable #4 starter. That said, he did a good job gutting it out tonight when we obviously don't have a bullpen to use.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jun 19, 2019 22:14:34 GMT -5
If Barnes holds this lead in the 8th, does that mean Josh Smith in the 9th - again?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,511
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Post by cdj on Jun 19, 2019 22:16:07 GMT -5
e-rod giving them 7 against this lineup is huge after last nights game
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Post by orion09 on Jun 19, 2019 22:16:35 GMT -5
Poppen Lock has been getting away with some things.....nice job Mookie !! and Benni !!!
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Post by telson13 on Jun 19, 2019 22:21:43 GMT -5
I think the issue is that it’s an unreasonably negative (rhetorical) question whose presumptive answer is unsupported by the actual data. Seems to me the implication was, in fact, that he was garbage. Why else would you call a guy who’s been basically a strong 3 something less? Also, I give huge props to Eddie for turning things around and going 7 when they needed it. It might not be a “quality start,” but it ended up being pretty damn good. That was a solid bounce back against a very good team. Personally, his leading question made me realize I was actually unsure how good ERod has been this year, so I enjoyed the opportunity to do a bit of research and find out. Yup. Aside from the rotten start, he’s been...well, good. The more I think of it the more enthused I am about tonight. Historically, this was the sort of game where he’d kinda fall apart with the inefficiency after the first few innings, and end up going 5 1/3 and giving up 5 or 6 runs. But he really flipped a switch tonight, got back in it, went 7 when they *really* needed it...on the road, in one of the toughest road parks in baseball against the league’s best offense...and he gave them a chance to win. Maybe I should still hold out hope that this will be his breakout year. At the very least, he’s improving in some of his weakest areas. That’s a really positive development. Dude just needs a long-term contract. Something along the lines of Severino’s deal, maybe a touch less given the performance difference (tho Eddie has more service time, so...). And he’s actually WAY underperformed his peripherals (too many hits/high BABIPA and HR/FB rate), so he’s due for some positive regression. And if that includes a performance improvement, look out. He’s just now entering what’s historically a pitcher’s prime, at 26. Lock that man up...
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 19, 2019 22:23:22 GMT -5
If we can hold on, we really made some ground up on TB at least.
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 19, 2019 22:28:00 GMT -5
I mean, a number 4 starter isn't garbage? Pretty valuable piece still. The poster never implied he was garbage. That's right. I never implied he was garbage & if someone reads that into it, it's because of their own bias. I simply asked if he would ever become more then what he is, a #4 or #5 starter. He certainly doesn't pass the "eye test" as a borderline #2 or a #3 no matter what stats can be produced. I do think he is a perfect candidate to be traded in some kind of package to upgrade the team in some way to make another run at a title though. Who that would be for and who would have to be included going both ways remains to be seen.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 19, 2019 22:32:23 GMT -5
He got out of it, but it wasn't pretty lol. Ed is what he is, and what he is always going to be - a not durable #4 starter. That said, he did a good job gutting it out tonight when we obviously don't have a bullpen to use. He’s been worth 2.6 fWAR per 180 innings over his career. That’s a high-end 3, or even 2a. That includes being called up at 22 y 1m old, when most guys are still in AA. And dealing with a patellar dislocation. You’re calling him a finished product at 26, which is when most starting pitchers historically begin peaking. Yes, he hasn’t been durable. But at least it’s not arm/shoulder issues. Doesn’t the rest seem...maybe...irrationally/inaccurately pessimistic to you?
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Post by Guidas on Jun 19, 2019 22:33:25 GMT -5
Great Win!
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Jun 19, 2019 22:34:17 GMT -5
Series win - check. Excellent win tonight. Great job by Erod.
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dd
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Post by dd on Jun 19, 2019 22:34:20 GMT -5
I feel comfortable saying....and at the considerable risk of the possible wrath of the board....we are going to win this series against a winning ballclub. I CAN'T Like this now for obvious reasons, but stay tuned Done!
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jun 19, 2019 22:34:56 GMT -5
Back in the second wild card spot for now.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 19, 2019 22:37:41 GMT -5
That's right. I never implied he was garbage & if someone reads that into it, it's because of their own bias. I simply asked if he would ever become more then what he is, a #4 or #5 starter. He certainly doesn't pass the "eye test" as a borderline #2 or a #3 no matter what stats can be produced. I do think he is a perfect candidate to be traded in some kind of package to upgrade the team in some way to make another run at a title though. Who that would be for and who would have to be included going both ways remains to be seen. Except your premise is wholly unsupported by data. Why feel the need to knock a guy down one or two pegs in performance just for the sake of complaining? I think some people here have a fairly erroneous idea of what a “4/5” starter is. I know everyone here wants the Sox’s 5th guy to be a 2.5-win pitcher...but that’s not a “#5 starter.” It’s a solid 3.
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Post by cheers on Jun 19, 2019 22:39:05 GMT -5
Ed is what he is, and what he is always going to be - a not durable #4 starter. That said, he did a good job gutting it out tonight when we obviously don't have a bullpen to use. He’s been worth 2.6 fWAR per 180 innings over his career. That’s a high-end 3, or even 2a. That includes being called up at 22 y 1m old, when most guys are still in AA. And dealing with a patellar dislocation. You’re calling him a finished product at 26, which is when most starting pitchers historically begin peaking. Yes, he hasn’t been durable. But at least it’s not arm/shoulder issues. Doesn’t the rest seem...maybe...irrationally/inaccurately pessimistic to you? I hear you, and don't disagree entirely. However, this has been "the year he turns the corner" over and over again for more than a couple years. Please don't misunderstand, I want him to be spectacularly awesome. I just think given the track record that thinking he is more than he is is possibly...maybe...irrationally/inaccurately optimistic. I like when I'm wrong when I'm a pessimist. I hope I am. Edit: WAR is a super kablammo flawed stat. The list of outlier data points is too numerous to bother listing.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,511
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Post by cdj on Jun 19, 2019 22:41:59 GMT -5
I think people get frustrated with E-Rod because he has the stuff of a #2 at times, he’s just been wildly inconsistent
But here’s the thing- he’s still been a good pitcher for the Sox even with that. And there is still upside there imo
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Post by dirtdog on Jun 19, 2019 22:46:49 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jun 19, 2019 22:53:17 GMT -5
DID YOU KNOW? The Red Sox:
-Are 6-6 in their last 12 games against teams with winning records
-Are 35-22 since their atrocious start, a 99-win pace
-Are 30-18 since April 29th, a 101-win pace
I like to cite April 29th because that's the day that kjkramer officially surrendered for the season (in the middle of a game they eventually won), though you can call it cherry-picking if you want. I really don't think it's cherry-picking to count their record since the 6-13 start, though - they were just a different team at the beginning, with the pitching weirdness and whatnot. But they're playing like basically a 100-win team since then, no matter how you slice it. When people see that and conclude that they're just meh or are "basically a .500 team" or have no real shot in the postseason, I just can't understand what they're looking at. Or what they expect. Is one 108-win season enough to completely distort expectations?
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Post by cheers on Jun 19, 2019 22:56:57 GMT -5
Except your premise is wholly unsupported by data. Why feel the need to knock a guy down one or two pegs in performance just for the sake of complaining? I think some people here have a fairly erroneous idea of what a “4/5” starter is. I know everyone here wants the Sox’s 5th guy to be a 2.5-win pitcher...but that’s not a “#5 starter.” It’s a solid 3. I'd be fascinated to know what the boards collective definition of #5 starter (in a decent to solid rotation) is. Here is my two cents: 170 innings of 4.80 ish ERA ball. A guy that normally gives you 5 or 6 innings of 3 run ball without being constantly on the DL. Not going to consistently win, but you should be in it if the bats are on.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 19, 2019 23:03:06 GMT -5
He’s been worth 2.6 fWAR per 180 innings over his career. That’s a high-end 3, or even 2a. That includes being called up at 22 y 1m old, when most guys are still in AA. And dealing with a patellar dislocation. You’re calling him a finished product at 26, which is when most starting pitchers historically begin peaking. Yes, he hasn’t been durable. But at least it’s not arm/shoulder issues. Doesn’t the rest seem...maybe...irrationally/inaccurately pessimistic to you? I hear you, and don't disagree entirely. However, this has been "the year he turns the corner" over and over again for more than a couple years. Please don't misunderstand, I want him to be spectacularly awesome. I just think given the track record that thinking he is more than he is is possibly...maybe...irrationally/inaccurately optimistic. I like when I'm wrong when I'm a pessimist. I hope I am. Edit: WAR is a super kablammo flawed stat. The list of outlier data points is too numerous to bother listing. I mean, I get that because I do the same. But the dude **just turned 26**. Very few pitchers do the Clayton Kershaw awesome-in-his-2nd-year-at-21 thing. Scherzer, Halladay, Cliff Lee, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber, Jacob Degrom, Justin Verlander, most recently, Frankie Montas and arguably Jose Berrios...all of those guys had middling to moderate success for several years (some toiling in the minors like DeGrom or Kluber, others getting obliterated and sent down only to emerge like Halladay, Carrasco, and Lee) from 22-25 or even 26 or 27...and then they broke out and found a new level. Absolutely, Eddie has been frustrating. But he’s also had a freak injury that lingered (and was surgically corrected...a surgery that has very high success, btw, with no sequelae), and he’s had some pretty dominant stretches. When he first came up, he pitched like a 2. It’s possible he never figures it out, or he keeps having injury problems. But his K rate has climbed, his walk rate dropped, and he still has a 70-grade CH. Yes, WAR is flawed...but just looking at his ERA, it’s a career 4.20, which is basically league-average. So for a *young* pitcher to pitch to league-average while struggling with injury, improving his whiffs, and lowering his walk rate...those are positive things. Frankly, I think he needs to put the CH in the zone just a touch more, and he needs to master his SL or come up with another third pitch. If he’s still this guy at 29, well then I think it’s a done deal. But he’s just hitting the age where many, many guys make a leap. My counterpoint on offense would be Bogey. I think it’s fair, even smart, to keep hoping on Rodriguez, because there’s a lot of history to say he has another gear.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 19, 2019 23:06:00 GMT -5
He should get some rest in the coming series just to make sure he's ok. Our son is way too important to rush this thing and I'm pretty sure AC gonna take care of him. Also, what a blessing watching JBJ playing CF for the Red Sox! Enjoy every single moment it!
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