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7/2-7/4 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 3, 2019 21:44:42 GMT -5
Kind of are what they are after over 3 months of games.
Still, the goal of any series is 2 out 3 3. You'd like sweeps against bad teams, but it's not realistic to expect it.
Game 3 is a must for this team just from a perception standpoint.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 3, 2019 22:05:14 GMT -5
The issues are piling up just when we should be hitting our stride
Pitching: starters - Sale seems broken, Porcello is as likely to get bombed in the first as throw a quality start, ERod is erratic (though the team scores for him) - Price is pretty much it. And starter #5??? Relievers - Workman (most of the time) and a collection of prayers?
Hitting - Benny seems broken, Mookie is back down to earth, the offense still squanders too much...and....Eduardo Nunez.
I just don't see a road to the playoffs with those issues - particularly the pitching - at this point.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 3, 2019 22:14:28 GMT -5
Whoa - just checked the box (for some reason, I didn't notice this watching the game) - Xander, Benny and JBJ a combined 0-12 - Xander 4 Ks. Painful. No way to get sustained rallies with black holes spread throughout the order.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 4, 2019 4:22:31 GMT -5
This is really starting to get uncomfortable. Especially when you hear this-
So Velazquez is going to give the Sox 3 bad innings most likely, followed with a cringy bullpen day. The only thing that gives the Sox hope is that the Jays sound like they pushed back Stroman too.
For even the "eternal optimist," this can't be looking so hot at the moment. The Sox are 2.5 back of Cleveland. They are 1.5 back of Oakland. They are 1 game back of Texas.
Say all you want about the Fangraphs projections or odds of the Sox making the play-offs, the standings are telling a different story. The Sox need to get hot the next 3 weeks and you're off to a bad start with starting Velazquez tomorrow.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 4, 2019 4:33:51 GMT -5
It's not a stretch to say that the next 3 weeks is going to either give you hope for the playoffs, or it's going to have a HUGE impact on the next 3 years of Red Sox baseball.
The Sox are right on that line of selling and buying. Keep playing like a .500 team the next 3 weeks, then you could start to see more seperation from Cleveland or Oakland especially.
You lose 3 more games in the standings between now and the deadline in the second wild card, it's pretty OBVIOUS that you sell. I hope this doesn't happen.
Time for this team to start playing up to it's talent level or time to start talking trading Mookie Betts. We are in crunch time evaluation for the season. There's no more August waiver wire deals, this is it. 3 weeks to determine if you're going for it or making hard decisions on the long term landscape of the franchise.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 4, 2019 8:09:40 GMT -5
It's not a stretch to say that the next 3 weeks is going to either give you hope for the playoffs, or it's going to have a HUGE impact on the next 3 years of Red Sox baseball. The Sox are right on that line of selling and buying. Keep playing like a .500 team the next 3 weeks, then you could start to see more seperation from Cleveland or Oakland especially. You lose 3 more games in the standings between now and the deadline in the second wild card, it's pretty OBVIOUS that you sell. I hope this doesn't happen. Time for this team to start playing up to it's talent level or time to start talking trading Mookie Betts. We are in crunch time evaluation for the season. There's no more August waiver wire deals, this is it. 3 weeks to determine if you're going for it or making hard decisions on the long term landscape of the franchise. Pedro, I totally get that the Red Sox are aggravating as hell to watch. They've been boring and they've been disappointing. But I see all these blanket statements of "Sell, sell, sell!!". Makes me think I'm watching "Trading Places"! Mathematically, even an aggravating Red Sox team is capable of putting up a 16-4 spurt or go 30-15 is a six week stretch and sometimes that can happen AFTER the trade deadline, so even if the Sox are four or five games out behind Cleveland/Oakland/TB, they're not out of it. It's not like those teams are the Astros or Yankees and won't have a 8-12 spurt or a 20-25 stretch. I think we can agree that the Sox have very little of value to trade of the players that are not under contract for 2020. Porcello is the most valuable and at this point he wouldn't fetch much in return. I'd think the odds are he gives you a better performance for the remainder of the season than the value of what you get for him going forward. So you're talking the big fish, JDM, JBJ, and the biggest one of them all, Mookie. In re: to Mookie this is almost like dealing him after the subpar 2017 season he had come off of - before he had a huge 2018. I suspect Mookie will have a huge 2020. Not as historic as 2018 but certainly as good as 2016. You are under the impression that the Red Sox can't/won't sign him. I'm not 100% certain that's the case. A season like 2019 doesn't help his case and probably puts a gap between the Trout money ($350 million for 10 years?) Mookie probably thinks he's worth and what the Sox are willing to pay him (Sale/Price money for about 8 years). That said, if the Red Sox fail to make the playoffs or don't get very far in the playoffs which is the most likely scenario, that means a normal spring training next year, a lot of embarrassment and hunger on the part of the Red Sox players, I can see the Sox getting off to a much better start than 6-13. That start they had kind of set the tone for the season. Made it obvious it was going to be an uphill climb and that everything had to go just about perfectly for the Sox to be where they wanted to be, when you share a division with an embarrassed/pissed off Yankees team and a crafty TB team. And when you start off with failure coming off a virtually perfect season, everybody can see the line between the two seasons - from practically the first moment of the season. Next season, I don't expect that to be there. I think they'll get off to a good/normal start where things feel differently than 2019. In 2018 when the Sox got off to that amazing start, you could see the confidence growing exponentially in the clubhouse. The vibe there had to be amazing and all of the players fed off it. I'm sure it's much different this season for them. I know everything here HAS to be quantified, but I believe in that culture, when you get that groove of winning the way they did last year, it makes everybody believe and pull in the same direction. It gives them a feeling like they can win no matter what. When you start the way they did this season it has to feel very different and that same belief isn't quite there. Probably not describing this well, but I think you know what I mean. Players can feel when something special is going on around them and when it's not as special. I expect that the Sox will feel differently, that Mookie will have a huge season in him - as will JDM. The starters will be more themselves although I question who takes Porcello's spot in the rotation, and I anticipate the Sox will have an experienced closer (whether it's Giles or Colome or whoever) and not go through this nonsense that they've gone through this year. Sort of like how the Sox didn't need an ace when Lester left, it failed miserably in 2015, so they sign Price or even way back when, when Clemens left, Steve Avery was supposed to be the ace or whatever, it failed miserably, so they brought in a real stud in Pedro. Failure/embarrassment drives teams to move, and I'm sure the Sox will be looking to win in 2020. So this is my long-winded way of saying the Sox need to keep their 2020 assets because it's doubtful they'll get anywhere without them in 2020. Don't punish the 2020 Red Sox because you're pissed off at the 2019 Red Sox.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 4, 2019 8:28:08 GMT -5
It's not a stretch to say that the next 3 weeks is going to either give you hope for the playoffs, or it's going to have a HUGE impact on the next 3 years of Red Sox baseball. The Sox are right on that line of selling and buying. Keep playing like a .500 team the next 3 weeks, then you could start to see more seperation from Cleveland or Oakland especially. You lose 3 more games in the standings between now and the deadline in the second wild card, it's pretty OBVIOUS that you sell. I hope this doesn't happen. Time for this team to start playing up to it's talent level or time to start talking trading Mookie Betts. We are in crunch time evaluation for the season. There's no more August waiver wire deals, this is it. 3 weeks to determine if you're going for it or making hard decisions on the long term landscape of the franchise. I don't understand why you want to give up on 2020 already.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 8:49:40 GMT -5
It's not a stretch to say that the next 3 weeks is going to either give you hope for the playoffs, or it's going to have a HUGE impact on the next 3 years of Red Sox baseball. The Sox are right on that line of selling and buying. Keep playing like a .500 team the next 3 weeks, then you could start to see more seperation from Cleveland or Oakland especially. You lose 3 more games in the standings between now and the deadline in the second wild card, it's pretty OBVIOUS that you sell. I hope this doesn't happen. Time for this team to start playing up to it's talent level or time to start talking trading Mookie Betts. We are in crunch time evaluation for the season. There's no more August waiver wire deals, this is it. 3 weeks to determine if you're going for it or making hard decisions on the long term landscape of the franchise. I don't understand why you want to give up on 2020 already. Need new toys, we're bored with the old ones. Do people who want to trade Betts play fantasy baseball? Do they realize that they should be playing fantasy baseball?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 4, 2019 10:49:28 GMT -5
It's not a stretch to say that the next 3 weeks is going to either give you hope for the playoffs, or it's going to have a HUGE impact on the next 3 years of Red Sox baseball. The Sox are right on that line of selling and buying. Keep playing like a .500 team the next 3 weeks, then you could start to see more seperation from Cleveland or Oakland especially. You lose 3 more games in the standings between now and the deadline in the second wild card, it's pretty OBVIOUS that you sell. I hope this doesn't happen. Time for this team to start playing up to it's talent level or time to start talking trading Mookie Betts. We are in crunch time evaluation for the season. There's no more August waiver wire deals, this is it. 3 weeks to determine if you're going for it or making hard decisions on the long term landscape of the franchise. I don't understand why you want to give up on 2020 already. Because there is a real fear of losing Mookie for nothing at all. That's a way too valuable chip to just let walk. He's a guy who can restock the system.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 11:09:09 GMT -5
Because there is a real fear of losing Mookie for nothing at all. That's a way too valuable chip to just let walk. He's a guy who can restock the system. Go. Play. Dynasty.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 4, 2019 11:27:32 GMT -5
I don't understand why you want to give up on 2020 already. Because there is a real fear of losing Mookie for nothing at all. That's a way too valuable chip to just let walk. He's a guy who can restock the system. At least half a dozen arguments come immediately to mind, most of which alone would be enough to render this idea ridiculous: the team figures to be very good in 2020 with less likelihood they'll be good after that; trading Betts now makes it less likely we extend him or sign him as a free agent; the effect on team morale would not be great; Mookie is an extremely likable and entertaining player and makes it more fun to root for the Red Sox; there would be almost no way to replace the concentrated value he gives the team at just one position and there's no one remotely ready to take his place in the farm system; this season's outfielder free agent class is weak; no prospect in the world projects to be as good as Mookie is right now, or even projects merely to provide the surplus value Mookie projects for this season and next; and there is a 0% chance that the team is going to do this anyway. But to focus on just one point: how much do you think they can get for 1.5 seasons of Betts? I'd estimate about half of what we gave up for 3 seasons of Sale - maybe one top-line prospect and one or two other decentish prospects. That's not really re-stocking the system. Maybe that brings the team up to, I don't know, the 20th-ranked farm system? And now the major league team is considerably worse for that modest bump.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 4, 2019 11:28:27 GMT -5
It's not a stretch to say that the next 3 weeks is going to either give you hope for the playoffs, or it's going to have a HUGE impact on the next 3 years of Red Sox baseball. The Sox are right on that line of selling and buying. Keep playing like a .500 team the next 3 weeks, then you could start to see more seperation from Cleveland or Oakland especially. You lose 3 more games in the standings between now and the deadline in the second wild card, it's pretty OBVIOUS that you sell. I hope this doesn't happen. Time for this team to start playing up to it's talent level or time to start talking trading Mookie Betts. We are in crunch time evaluation for the season. There's no more August waiver wire deals, this is it. 3 weeks to determine if you're going for it or making hard decisions on the long term landscape of the franchise. I don't understand why you want to give up on 2020 already. There's a balance of short term and long term that can't be ignored. You put him out there and see if you get trade offers that blow away his value for 2020, yeah you can trade him. The team playing well in 2019 will help make these ideas instantly go away. It's up the to the Red Sox to make them disappear.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 4, 2019 11:48:33 GMT -5
Because there is a real fear of losing Mookie for nothing at all. That's a way too valuable chip to just let walk. He's a guy who can restock the system. At least half a dozen arguments come immediately to mind, most of which alone would be enough to render this idea ridiculous: the team figures to be very good in 2020 with less likelihood they'll be good after that; trading Betts now makes it less likely we extend him or sign him as a free agent; the effect on team morale would not be great; Mookie is an extremely likable and entertaining player and makes it more fun to root for the Red Sox; there would be almost no way to replace the concentrated value he gives the team at just one position and there's no one remotely ready to take his place in the farm system; this season's outfielder free agent class is weak; no prospect in the world projects to be as good as Mookie is right now, or even projects merely to provide the surplus value Mookie projects for this season and next; and there is a 0% chance that the team is going to do this anyway. But to focus on just one point: how much do you think they can get for 1.5 seasons of Betts? I'd estimate about half of what we gave up for 3 seasons of Sale - maybe one top-line prospect and one or two other decentish prospects. That's not really re-stocking the system. Maybe that brings the team up to, I don't know, the 20th-ranked farm system? And now the major league team is considerably worse for that modest bump. 1) Mookie has shown every indication to test market 2) I think you can get two top 5 prospects in a strong farm system, and maybe another top 10. 3) There's risk in said trade, but that risk is mitigated if you're not competitive in 2019. Your risk is in only one year.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 4, 2019 11:49:46 GMT -5
Because there is a real fear of losing Mookie for nothing at all. That's a way too valuable chip to just let walk. He's a guy who can restock the system. Go. Play. Dynasty. I actually won my fantasy league and playoffs last year. Taking a year off (got last the year before, and best record for regular season before that). I don't think you need to be a fantasy baseball fan to see that losing Betts for nothing is a catastrophe of resources if you can't re-sign him.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 4, 2019 11:51:05 GMT -5
And for everyone complaining about 2020, what about 2021? Or do we only care about it in 2020?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 4, 2019 11:54:06 GMT -5
I actually won my fantasy league and playoffs last year. Taking a year off (got last the year before, and best record for regular season before that). I don't think you need to be a fantasy baseball fan to see that losing Betts for nothing is a catastrophe of resources if you can't re-sign him.
This team has a legit shot to win the World Series this year and next, and you want to trade the best player on the roster for prospects. Insanity.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 4, 2019 11:55:53 GMT -5
With Hembree coming back, it is interesting to look at the roster now.
Johnson and Thornburg still on IL - Take away Kimbrel and Kelly - add Walden, Brewer, Wright and Taylor.
With Pearce and Moreland on the IL, add Chavis and Marco.
Biggest differences - Benny and Mookie's struggles, inconsistent starters, and blown out overworked pen with no good replacements for Kelly and Kimbrel showing themselves.
Largely the same team minus a few key players. Lackadaisical approach entering spring training into the season and some off years hurting them badly.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 4, 2019 11:58:15 GMT -5
Because there is a real fear of losing Mookie for nothing at all. That's a way too valuable chip to just let walk. He's a guy who can restock the system. At least half a dozen arguments come immediately to mind, most of which alone would be enough to render this idea ridiculous: the team figures to be very good in 2020 with less likelihood they'll be good after that; trading Betts now makes it less likely we extend him or sign him as a free agent; the effect on team morale would not be great; Mookie is an extremely likable and entertaining player and makes it more fun to root for the Red Sox; there would be almost no way to replace the concentrated value he gives the team at just one position and there's no one remotely ready to take his place in the farm system; this season's outfielder free agent class is weak; no prospect in the world projects to be as good as Mookie is right now, or even projects merely to provide the surplus value Mookie projects for this season and next; and there is a 0% chance that the team is going to do this anyway. But to focus on just one point: how much do you think they can get for 1.5 seasons of Betts? I'd estimate about half of what we gave up for 3 seasons of Sale - maybe one top-line prospect and one or two other decentish prospects. That's not really re-stocking the system. Maybe that brings the team up to, I don't know, the 20th-ranked farm system? And now the major league team is considerably worse for that modest bump. I'd argue that an elite MLB regular is more valuable than an elite starter since they have a chance to impact every game. It's also in-season which means a team might be more desperate than if it were the off-season. I think you get what you got for Sale. My first priority is extending Betts, but if he has a number that you KNOW you won't go to, but someone else will, you move. He wants top dollar. He wants to set the market for future players.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 4, 2019 12:01:10 GMT -5
I actually won my fantasy league and playoffs last year. Taking a year off (got last the year before, and best record for regular season before that). I don't think you need to be a fantasy baseball fan to see that losing Betts for nothing is a catastrophe of resources if you can't re-sign him.
This team has a legit shot to win the World Series this year and next, and you want to trade the best player on the roster for prospects. Insanity. A. I'm talking about the deadline when we have a clearer picture. B. I don't think trading Betts all of a sudden means you can't compete in 2020. It hurts, but you're acting like they can't make other moves. C. You're out of the playoffs WITH Betts (not really his fault, he's very good instead of MVP good). D. They're not winning the World Series this year. I'm very comfortable saying that.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 4, 2019 12:01:29 GMT -5
Is Vazquez afraid of Sale’s slider and change or just in love with the FB? The only pitch they were truly teeing off on, and yet Vazquez kept calling for it nearly 75% of the time;
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 4, 2019 12:05:53 GMT -5
Is it CVaz, or does the bench do lots of the calling? Isn't this something that should be worked out between pitching coach, pitcher and catcher in advance of the game?
To me, Sale showed little control - I can't blame Vazquez for that game, given Sale's generally poor year throughout, to date. Plus, having another black hole in the line up - no thanks.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 4, 2019 12:06:14 GMT -5
Is Vazquez afraid of Sale’s slider and change or just in love with the FB? The only pitch they were truly teeing off on, and yet Vazquez kept calling for it nearly 75% of the time; I don't get if this is suppose to make me feel any better? The Jays set up a pitching machine and were able to mash off him as a result? So, are other teams going to start doing the same thing? I didn't get to watch most of the game, but they said he was throwing 94, but the last home run was a 90.5-m.p.h fastball.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 4, 2019 12:21:11 GMT -5
One other thing came to mind. Getting so excited about Hembree coming back to the team should be quite a statement on the shape of the pitching this year. (yes, he was on a good streak - but this is gas can Hembree we are talking about). How the sliding scale of success has shifted!
Over/under on Nunez getting a start today? (every day he remains on the team tells volumes about the team's skill depth).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 4, 2019 12:28:26 GMT -5
And for everyone complaining about 2020, what about 2021? Or do we only care about it in 2020? I care more about 2020 than I do 2021 because I think that Sale and Price are likely to be better pitchers than in 2021. The core of the team is in its prime now. We have no idea what the team will look like in 2021. If Mookie bolts then they take his money and spend it elsewhere for 2021. On whom, who knows? 2020 is more forecastable now than 2021 is. Eventually 2021 will come clearer into view, and if JD Martinez and Mookie aren't on that team, that's about 50 plus million the Red Sox have to go shopping with. We've seen two polar extreme opposites of what the Red Sox have been. We saw the best case scenario last year with 108 wins and the Series championship. This year's team probably wins 86 at it lowest and 93 at its highest so we'll say 90 and just about everything has gone wrong. Average that out and what do you got? And factor in the team will actually have spring training next season and things aren't as likely to go as bad as they have this season or as swimmingly as it did in 2018. What's that? 99 wins? Probably won't be THAT fortunate, but 95 is certainly possible and that'll either get you a Wild Card game or they do win those 99 and they have a shot at the division. Either way it's a high quality team. The Sox would be foolish to punt on that.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jul 4, 2019 13:42:18 GMT -5
I actually won my fantasy league and playoffs last year. Taking a year off (got last the year before, and best record for regular season before that). I don't think you need to be a fantasy baseball fan to see that losing Betts for nothing is a catastrophe of resources if you can't re-sign him.
This team has a legit shot to win the World Series this year and next, and you want to trade the best player on the roster for prospects. Insanity. while i agree with your argument in general, i'm not sure how legit their shot is this year. 538 gives them a 3% chance to win the WS and fangraphs a 4.7% chance. It's something, but it's not exactly where you want to be (or probably should be given the team's talent).
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