ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 2, 2019 10:35:10 GMT -5
[...]
From his point of view a year from now, I'm pretty sure that there's a way that's kosher for agents of a player with an opt-out to find out from a GM if they would have an interest. I don't know where they draw the line for tampering, but a GM can make it clear to a agent that they have an interest without the player's name even being mentioned. [...]
I don't get this at all. You think there's a rule against tampering that says it's only tampering if you mention a player's name? For example: if an agent has another FA who plays the same position (call him X), he can call the GM and say, "what are your plans for RF? I think X would be better than what you've got." The GM might say something like, "yeah, we need an upgrade. But we're looking for someone who could not only play Fenway's big RF, but hit 5th [or vice versa], so X would be more of a fallback option."
That's not even tampering technically, even if both parties know the agent has a guy with an opt-out who fits that description.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 2, 2019 10:54:13 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure that Boras will have a general idea of what to expect before he advises JDM. He should but he certainly wasn't too clued in the last time around for JD's free agency.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 2, 2019 11:05:43 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure that Boras will have a general idea of what to expect before he advises JDM. He should but he certainly wasn't too clued in the last time around for JD's free agency. That wasn't an opt out, there was no decision to be made.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 3, 2019 3:04:56 GMT -5
I usually point out that FanGraph's "Clutch" metric is inaccurate and needlessly complex. They separately keep track of a player's Batting Runs Above Average according to the same formula that produces wRC+, and all you need to do to get an accurate "Clutch Differential" (CD) metric is convert it to wins and subtract it from Win Probability Added, adjusted for leverage. You then just take the rate per 650 PA. I did that. There are 234 players with 1000+ PA from 2017 to 2019. J.D. Martinez ranks 232nd in CD. He edges Aaron Judge for the second-best wRC+ over the last three years, 158 to 157. But he ranks just 17th in Win Probability Added (adjusted for leverage) per PA. Here are the top 20 guys in WPA, adjusted for leverage, per 650 PA, together with their wRC+ and Clutch Differential. Note that FG's WPA isn't properly park-adjusted (which is why I don't park-adjust RAA), so there's still some error here, but this is pretty close.
Name W/650 wRC+ CD Mike Trout 5.81 184 -0.98 Christi. Yelich 5.60 151 0.99 Max Muncy 4.70 146 0.79 Bryce Harper 4.55 136 0.98 Freddie Freeman 4.34 141 0.39 Anthony Rizzo 4.31 133 1.10 Mookie Betts 4.29 140 0.54 Juan Soto 4.27 143 0.05 Alex Bregman 4.06 150 0.09 Rona. Acuna Jr. 4.02 133 0.76 Anthony Rendon 3.91 145 -0.49 Nolan Arenado 3.86 130 -0.27 Cody Bellinger 3.82 140 0.31 Nelson Cruz 3.66 147 -0.15 Matt Olson 3.42 131 0.97 Pa. Goldschmidt 3.41 134 0.08 J.D. Martinez 3.30 158 -1.96 Aaron Judge 3.21 157 -1.60 Eric Thames 3.05 118 1.04 Charl. Blackmon 2.97 128 -1.04
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 3, 2019 8:10:52 GMT -5
I don't get this at all. You think there's a rule against tampering that says it's only tampering if you mention a player's name? For example: if an agent has another FA who plays the same position (call him X), he can call the GM and say, "what are your plans for RF? I think X would be better than what you've got." The GM might say something like, "yeah, we need an upgrade. But we're looking for someone who could not only play Fenway's big RF, but hit 5th [or vice versa], so X would be more of a fallback option."
That's not even tampering technically, even if both parties know the agent has a guy with an opt-out who fits that description. Seems like that's either tampering (with mens rea), or too vague to be useful.or possibly even both.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 3, 2019 12:49:21 GMT -5
He should but he certainly wasn't too clued in the last time around for JD's free agency. That wasn't an opt out, there was no decision to be made. The numbers Boras was floating were like 7 years and 210 million for JD. He must have convinced JD he could get close to that. Totally misread the market as both NY and LA were not spending.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2019 13:30:49 GMT -5
That wasn't an opt out, there was no decision to be made. The numbers Boras was floating were like 7 years and 210 million for JD. He must have convinced JD he could get close to that. Totally misread the market as both NY and LA were not spending. What he says outwardly trying to set a market isn't necessarily what he's telling his client internally.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 3, 2019 20:07:34 GMT -5
The numbers Boras was floating were like 7 years and 210 million for JD. He must have convinced JD he could get close to that. Totally misread the market as both NY and LA were not spending. What he says outwardly trying to set a market isn't necessarily what he's telling his client internally. I'm pretty sure that at every stage, Boras is straight with his clients telling them the current situation and what he thinks will happen. That said Boras doesn't have a Chrystal Ball and the entire industry pretty much misread how the markets turned out.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 3, 2019 20:47:46 GMT -5
What he says outwardly trying to set a market isn't necessarily what he's telling his client internally. I'm pretty sure that at every stage, Boras is straight with his clients telling them the current situation and what he thinks will happen. That said Boras doesn't have a Chrystal Ball and the entire industry pretty much misread how the markets turned out. The point was that Boras knew damn well that JDM wasn't getting $210M for 7 seasons. He just said it to make people think he's worth 50% more than any DH had ever been paid before.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 3, 2019 22:12:33 GMT -5
OK. So it's 5 days after the World Series ends, which was just 10 minutes before midnight making it still technically Oct 30th - so what time on Nov 4th (I assume it's the 4th? and not the 5th?) would JD Martinez have to notify the Sox he's opting out (or in)?
Honestly, I'd be very surprised if he didn't opt out even despite all the other stuff (like a QO being attached to him).
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 3, 2019 22:18:28 GMT -5
How surprising would it be if the Red Sox announce an extension with J.D. on Monday?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 3, 2019 22:28:01 GMT -5
How surprising would it be if the Red Sox announce an extension with J.D. on Monday? very
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Nov 3, 2019 23:21:17 GMT -5
OK. So it's 5 days after the World Series ends, which was just 10 minutes before midnight making it still technically Oct 30th - so what time on Nov 4th (I assume it's the 4th? and not the 5th?) would JD Martinez have to notify the Sox he's opting out (or in)? Honestly, I'd be very surprised if he didn't opt out even despite all the other stuff (like a QO being attached to him). I believe the deadline for the opt out is 5:00 pm EST on November 4th.
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 4, 2019 10:47:41 GMT -5
The deadline had been widely reported as 5 pm - I assume because that's when qualifying offers must be extended...
Did the Red Sox get screwed out of having the opportunity to give Martinez a QO?
EDIT: Alex is on top of this as well:
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Post by kjkramer on Nov 4, 2019 13:45:59 GMT -5
I have a feeling the Sox add years/money in exchange of deleting the last opt out and having some of that money deferred to help with the cap and signing/keeping other players.... just a hunch.... a contract like the one Sale got?
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 4, 2019 15:01:58 GMT -5
He apparently has until 11:59 pm to decide. I don't know why this would go to that hour, but at the risk of sounding completely homerish, i would hope be does it during "business" hours. Otherwise, it appears to be a petty little game.. the decision has already been made, and it isnt like they can talk to other teams.
Red Sox withdrawal here. ...early playoff exit has me pining for Sox news.
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Post by kjkramer on Nov 4, 2019 15:16:43 GMT -5
He apparently has until 11:59 pm to decide. I don't know why this would go to that hour, but at the risk of sounding completely homerish, i would hope be does it during "business" hours. Otherwise, it appears to be a petty little game.. the decision has already been made, and it isnt like they can talk to other teams. Red Sox withdrawal here. ...early playoff exit has me pining for Sox news. The lack of news is what spurred me to post what I did before you. The delay is odd. He already knows. Makes me think an extension is in the works and an extension only makes sense if it has deferred money.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 4, 2019 15:43:19 GMT -5
Agree a contract extension could be in the works. On the other hand Boras loves to exercise his power in petty little games, and with several of his clients among the top FA’s he could be letting the Boras games begin. Pardon my snark, but I do not like that the Boras approach is to squeeze max $$$ in a way that, because of the need for teams to stay under this artificial cap, holds down the salaries of team mates. Case in point, JD makes it tough to pay not only Mookie but also Devers, Beni, ERod. On a related note, considering the drive to get under $208M, if an extension for JD is actually being crafted, it is likely the Sox have decided a Mookie contract of, say, 10/350 just isn’t going to happen both in terms of $$ and length.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Nov 4, 2019 15:53:47 GMT -5
but doesn't any extension have to lower the AAV? We have a new guy, who is used to not paying talent, even if because of a low budget.
What can really be done here ? 4 year at 72 ? 5 at 90 ? I don't think the Sox want to do something like that.
i hope they don't add years and keep the same AAV. That kind of defeats the purpose.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 4, 2019 15:59:27 GMT -5
I guess I just don't see it. I don't think the Red Sox hired Chaim Bloom to extend JDM. I think they hired him with the thought that he could be down one or both of JDM and Mookie, and he'd take whatever money is left to get up to $208 million and maximize the value of who he brings in to replace JDM and/or Mookie.
I think the Red Sox want Bloom to creatively replace JDM for a lot less money than to extend him.
And I think they want him to be able to maximize the return in a Mookie Betts deal.
Do all this while keeping the team surprisingly competitive as they stay below $208 million. Then they'll give him more money to work with for the 2021 season when they don't mind going over the first luxury tax limit figure.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 4, 2019 17:07:29 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 4, 2019 17:20:11 GMT -5
Now that he's staying, a reset on JD's contract:
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Post by huskies15 on Nov 4, 2019 17:21:06 GMT -5
Wahoooo!!!
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Post by Guidas on Nov 4, 2019 17:26:13 GMT -5
Now I hope to heck they don’t trade him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 4, 2019 18:09:13 GMT -5
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