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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 21, 2019 8:25:02 GMT -5
Here comes Mookie -
WAR (ESPN) Trout 6.3, Chapman 4.9, Bregman 4.7, Mookie 4.2 (not shabby for an "off season")
WAR (Fangraphs) Trout 6.5 Bogaerts 4.6, Bregman 4.4, Chapman 4.1, Devers 4.0, Semien 3.6, Mookie 3.6
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 21, 2019 8:59:26 GMT -5
Here comes Mookie - WAR (ESPN) Trout 6.3, Chapman 4.9, Bregman 4.7, Mookie 4.2 (not shabby for an "off season") WAR (Fangraphs) Trout 6.5 Bogaerts 4.6, Bregman 4.4, Chapman 4.1, Devers 4.0, Semien 3.6, Mookie 3.6 One more thought on this, only 22 WAR seasons higher than the 10.9 Mookie posted last year. Based on BB Reference stats.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 21, 2019 9:25:22 GMT -5
another fascinating part of this season, the boys have basically the best road record in baseball (Minn 1/2 game ahead). What would we be if the home record was normal.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2019 10:07:06 GMT -5
Porcello's overall numbers don't represent the season he's had, which makes it all the more frustrating.
Here are his xwOBA and ball-in-play karma, where negative is good (it's wOBA - xwOVA), for stretches of starts:
.409 +.124 first 2 starts .358 +.016, next 3 .285 -.023, next 10, April 30 to June 17
.392 +.059, last 5
It so happens that all 4 of the primary starters have had a stretch of 10 great starts after their slow starts:
.216 -.001, Sale April 28 (mid-game) to June 15
.266 -.004, Price April 6 to June 8 .280 +.018, E-Rod April 12 to June 4
Subsequently:
Sale had 3 starts at .371 +.036 but now has 2 at .211 + .026. Price had 3 starts at .346 -.016, then 4 at .254 +.032, which makes his start Friday (.375 + .130) all the more disappointing. I bet he bounces back, though.
E-Rod had 4 starts at .356 -.003 but now has 4 at .270 -.010.
You can see that:
Sale was .216 (9.5 games) and is now .211 (2) Price was .266 (10) then .254 (4) E-Rod was .280 (10) and is now .270 (4).
These guys when they're on their game have a consistent, predictable quality. And they were all about roughly as bad when they were bad.
We know that Porcello has the talent to compete with E-Rod as the 3rd starter. And although it looks like his slump has been much worse than the the other slumps, that's an artifact of London; without that game he's .366, a perfectly generic good-starter-sucking number. That his slump is now 5 games is worrying but not yet terrifying.
One more bad start and you really start to worry. Brian Johnson can do better than that (if Steven Wright can't).
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 21, 2019 10:49:29 GMT -5
April-June seems to approximate thr “Red Tent” effect. Never saw that coming.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2019 11:09:54 GMT -5
Here comes Mookie - WAR (ESPN) Trout 6.3, Chapman 4.9, Bregman 4.7, Mookie 4.2 (not shabby for an "off season") WAR (Fangraphs) Trout 6.5 Bogaerts 4.6, Bregman 4.4, Chapman 4.1, Devers 4.0, Semien 3.6, Mookie 3.6 Fun with arbitrary start points ... since he turned back into Mookie on July 5:
He ranks 3rd in MLB in xwOBA of 161 players with 40+ PA (he has 58), and 4th in fWAR. He's played at a 12.5 WAR/150 pace.
Some before-and-after splits:
This is % of all pitches ...
In-zone contact: .241 to .279 Out-of-zone contact: .067 to .092 Out-of-zone miss: .026 to .008 SO: .147 to .102
BB: .164 to to .102
LD: .193 to .298 OF-FB: .385 to .447 (perfectly offset by a decline in HR/FB) GB: .367 to .234 PU: .055 to .021
But all of the July 5+ rates need to be multiplied by an increase in contact from .689 of his PA to .796.
Rate of PA ending in SO, GB, or PU: .437 to .305.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 21, 2019 11:19:12 GMT -5
Here comes Mookie - WAR (ESPN) Trout 6.3, Chapman 4.9, Bregman 4.7, Mookie 4.2 (not shabby for an "off season") WAR (Fangraphs) Trout 6.5 Bogaerts 4.6, Bregman 4.4, Chapman 4.1, Devers 4.0, Semien 3.6, Mookie 3.6 Fun with arbitrary start points ... since he turned back into Mookie on July 5: He ranks 3rd in MLB in xwOBA of 161 players with 40+ PA (he has 58), and 4th in fWAR. He's played at a 12.5 WAR/150 pace. Some before-and-after splits: This is % of all pitches ... In-zone contact: .241 to .279 Out-of-zone contact: .067 to .092 Out-of-zone miss: .026 to .008 SO: .147 to .102
BB: .164 to to .102
LD: .193 to .298 OF-FB: .385 to .447 (perfectly offset by a decline in HR/FB) GB: .367 to .234 PU: .055 to .021
But all of the July 5+ rates need to be multiplied by an increase in contact from .689 of his PA to .796.
Rate of PA ending in SO, GB, or PU: .437 to .305.
Interesting that the lower his pull% has been by month, the higher his wRC+ has been. He’s been hitting to the middle of the field a lot at his best.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 21, 2019 12:20:45 GMT -5
Cashner really does fit well on this staff.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jul 21, 2019 12:32:35 GMT -5
this Wojciechowski has nasty stuff
targeted the wrong O's pitcher
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 21, 2019 12:44:11 GMT -5
We are getting beat by 0-3 5.74. Not an unfamiliar theme this year.
We may need some of those excess runs from last night ...
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Post by coachmac on Jul 21, 2019 12:44:32 GMT -5
Not a great combination for the Sox through 2 innings: 100°+heat,a pitcher who can't throw strikes and takes a long time between pitches. 40 pitches through 2
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Post by larrycook on Jul 21, 2019 12:49:00 GMT -5
Chris Davis is going to be so sad when our pitchers leave town!
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Post by kevfc89 on Jul 21, 2019 12:54:48 GMT -5
his slider is straight filthy...no one strikes out Mookie two times in a row with the same pitch
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 21, 2019 12:55:40 GMT -5
Best, most accurate statement from this season (a very recent one)..."the only thing consistent about this year's team is it's inconsistency"
As in today so far
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 21, 2019 13:02:36 GMT -5
He will fit right in with our homer happy pitchers.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 21, 2019 13:03:01 GMT -5
Oh good grief. Can we take a Mulligan on this trade?
They just made the Eric Bedard comparison in trade deadline pickups.
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Post by manfred on Jul 21, 2019 13:03:52 GMT -5
Cashner is a bummer so far.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Jul 21, 2019 13:05:12 GMT -5
At least we didn't give up much for this guy.
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Post by caseytins on Jul 21, 2019 13:05:54 GMT -5
Cashner will be better out of the BP. Eovaldi will eventually get enough innings to be the 5th starter. Workman is the closer. Darwinzon is the setup guy. Quick overreaction, but it's how I see it..
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 21, 2019 13:07:46 GMT -5
At least we didn't give up much for this guy. Isn't there a seldom used rule that allows recission of a trade within 30 days?
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Guidas
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2019 13:08:24 GMT -5
This is awful. These games should've been lay-ups.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 21, 2019 13:09:55 GMT -5
Porcello. Cashner. You say tomAtoe, I say tomatoe. Same thing. Both junk ballers.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 21, 2019 13:11:14 GMT -5
At least we didn't give up much for this guy. Isn't there a seldom used rule that allows recission of a trade within 30 days? Only if you can prove that he is injured and that if the Orioles hid the injury before the trade happened. Kind of the Pomeranz trade revisited.
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Post by itsdunkindonutstime on Jul 21, 2019 13:12:20 GMT -5
my god! Trey Mancini just kills us, anyone remember Frank Catalanotto ? Mancini reminds me alot of him. Sox Killer.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 21, 2019 13:16:02 GMT -5
Cora has also been mystified on how some starters shackle our lineups, but we can get to pens. Issue with game prep???
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