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8/23-8/25 Red Sox @ Padres Series Thread
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 28, 2019 9:05:38 GMT -5
I always liked the Pomeranz trade before and now after. It's not that I thought it was steal or anything. I get you could not like the deal -- but the anger I thought was nuts. And even now if you still want to criticize it-- I think it crazy too. I don't think some understand that the Sox thought Pomeranz was a "2." I can;t find the article but I think that is what Bannister said. A pretty young young 2 that would have given them 2.5 years of high quality pitching. Secondly, I don't think they understand that low level guys are highly questionable. I can understand not liking the trade back then but not in a manner of "anger" (which was prevalent back then.). And after the fact - I don't see how this was bad as of right now. I don't understand a criticism for DD on this other than extremely mild or anyone that as fangraphs makes reference to in the below link vastly overrates the value of low level minor league players. blogs.fangraphs.com/did-the-red-sox-really-overpay-for-drew-pomeranz/ I just don't understand how the Red Sox could jump to the conclusion he was a 2 after a half a season of success at the age of 27. They also knew he had medical issues. Not, "the way he throws will lead to injury". Actual medical knowledge that he was damaged goods. What we don't know is if the Red Sox/Padres were aware of potential damages to Espinoza's arm or if they concluded based on body type and weight that he was doomed sooner rather than later. And while it doesn't look good for SD and Espinoza now, we're talking as if his career is over. He's still only 21. Depending on how he comes back, he could still make the majors and be effective. Eovaldi still throws 100 after 2 surgeries, though they weren't back-to-back.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 28, 2019 9:18:24 GMT -5
And while it doesn't look good for SD and Espinoza now, we're talking as if his career is over. He's still only 21. Depending on how he comes back, he could still make the majors and be effective. Eovaldi still throws 100 after 2 surgeries, though they weren't back-to-back. Nobody is talking about Espinoza's career being certainly over. But the value of him being useful in like 2023 to a team in contention in 2016 just isn't much, and he has essentially zero value today. It's the same as how the Red Sox "lost" the Boddicker trade in terms of WAR acquired minus WAR being traded, but they definitely won it in terms of any practical measure. Boddicker played a key role on two division winners, it took Curt Schilling two organizations and five more years to figure things out and Brady Anderson was definitely, unquestionably worse than Ellis Burks. (The way they screwed things up with Burks four years later is another story, one of the worst unforced errors the Red Sox management has made in my lifetime). I hope Espinoza turns his career around, but him getting healthy and putting things together at some point in the semi-distrant future (he's in minor league games, at best, at the very end of 2020 and he's never reached Double-A and he'll be four years away from game competition) doesn't change the relevant analysis of this trade.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 28, 2019 9:32:44 GMT -5
I always liked the Pomeranz trade before and now after. It's not that I thought it was steal or anything. I get you could not like the deal -- but the anger I thought was nuts. And even now if you still want to criticize it-- I think it crazy too. I don't think some understand that the Sox thought Pomeranz was a "2." I can;t find the article but I think that is what Bannister said. A pretty young young 2 that would have given them 2.5 years of high quality pitching. Secondly, I don't think they understand that low level guys are highly questionable. I can understand not liking the trade back then but not in a manner of "anger" (which was prevalent back then.). And after the fact - I don't see how this was bad as of right now. I don't understand a criticism for DD on this other than extremely mild or anyone that as fangraphs makes reference to in the below link vastly overrates the value of low level minor league players. blogs.fangraphs.com/did-the-red-sox-really-overpay-for-drew-pomeranz/ Yeah, that's the thing. People want to weigh Espinoza's hypothetical upside against Pomeranz's actual performance. You can talk about Pomeranz having more of a track record, but pitchers break out mid-career all the time, and Pomeranz did look like he might be one of those guys at the time. There was upside on both sides of the deal and people are only acknowledging one half of it. By the way, Pomeranz looks like he's going to be best reliever traded at the deadline.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2019 20:03:53 GMT -5
I always liked the Pomeranz trade before and now after. It's not that I thought it was steal or anything. I get you could not like the deal -- but the anger I thought was nuts. And even now if you still want to criticize it-- I think it crazy too. I don't think some understand that the Sox thought Pomeranz was a "2." I can;t find the article but I think that is what Bannister said. A pretty young young 2 that would have given them 2.5 years of high quality pitching. Secondly, I don't think they understand that low level guys are highly questionable. I can understand not liking the trade back then but not in a manner of "anger" (which was prevalent back then.). And after the fact - I don't see how this was bad as of right now. I don't understand a criticism for DD on this other than extremely mild or anyone that as fangraphs makes reference to in the below link vastly overrates the value of low level minor league players. blogs.fangraphs.com/did-the-red-sox-really-overpay-for-drew-pomeranz/ I just don't understand how the Red Sox could jump to the conclusion he was a 2 after a half a season of success at the age of 27. They also knew he had medical issues. Not, "the way he throws will lead to injury". Actual medical knowledge that he was damaged goods. What we don't know is if the Red Sox/Padres were aware of potential damages to Espinoza's arm or if they concluded based on body type and weight that he was doomed sooner rather than later. And while it doesn't look good for SD and Espinoza now, we're talking as if his career is over. He's still only 21. Depending on how he comes back, he could still make the majors and be effective. Eovaldi still throws 100 after 2 surgeries, though they weren't back-to-back. They didn't jump to the conclusion. They reached the conclusion after examining all the possible data. I had a small fraction of the data and reached the same conclusion.
Teams are usually shy about seeing a dramatic mid-career improvement as real. There is huge value in overcoming that reluctance and picking up a guy who is for real. They can come cheap. That's why I was adamant that the Sox re-sign Rich Hill. And that's part of why they'll have a solid chance of re-signing Brock Holt at a bargain price.
Actually, the Padres gave us a phony medical report, and people remain pissed that they suffered essentially no consequences, IIRC.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2019 21:35:35 GMT -5
I just don't understand how the Red Sox could jump to the conclusion he was a 2 after a half a season of success at the age of 27. They also knew he had medical issues. Not, "the way he throws will lead to injury". Actual medical knowledge that he was damaged goods. What we don't know is if the Red Sox/Padres were aware of potential damages to Espinoza's arm or if they concluded based on body type and weight that he was doomed sooner rather than later. And while it doesn't look good for SD and Espinoza now, we're talking as if his career is over. He's still only 21. Depending on how he comes back, he could still make the majors and be effective. Eovaldi still throws 100 after 2 surgeries, though they weren't back-to-back. They didn't jump to the conclusion. They reached the conclusion after examining all the possible data. I had a small fraction of the data and reached the same conclusion.
Teams are usually shy about seeing a dramatic mid-career improvement as real. There is huge value in overcoming that reluctance and picking up a guy who is for real. They can come cheap. That's why I was adamant that the Sox re-sign Rich Hill. And that's part of why they'll have a solid chance of re-signing Brock Holt at a bargain price.
Actually, the Padres gave us a phony medical report, and people remain pissed that they suffered essentially no consequences, IIRC.
That would make a good signature. I'm so hopeful that you and the Red Sox get this one right, but think that they'll go the Tzu Wei Lin bargain route. I bet they could get Holt for like 3/$14M and that would be a bargain, though he has come close to becoming a base clogger this year. But his contact and eye combo cannot possibly be undervalued anymore.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 28, 2019 22:55:11 GMT -5
I always liked the Pomeranz trade before and now after. It's not that I thought it was steal or anything. I get you could not like the deal -- but the anger I thought was nuts. And even now if you still want to criticize it-- I think it crazy too. I don't think some understand that the Sox thought Pomeranz was a "2." I can;t find the article but I think that is what Bannister said. A pretty young young 2 that would have given them 2.5 years of high quality pitching. Secondly, I don't think they understand that low level guys are highly questionable. I can understand not liking the trade back then but not in a manner of "anger" (which was prevalent back then.). And after the fact - I don't see how this was bad as of right now. I don't understand a criticism for DD on this other than extremely mild or anyone that as fangraphs makes reference to in the below link vastly overrates the value of low level minor league players. blogs.fangraphs.com/did-the-red-sox-really-overpay-for-drew-pomeranz/ I just don't understand how the Red Sox could jump to the conclusion he was a 2 after a half a season of success at the age of 27. They also knew he had medical issues. Not, "the way he throws will lead to injury". Actual medical knowledge that he was damaged goods. What we don't know is if the Red Sox/Padres were aware of potential damages to Espinoza's arm or if they concluded based on body type and weight that he was doomed sooner rather than later. And while it doesn't look good for SD and Espinoza now, we're talking as if his career is over. He's still only 21. Depending on how he comes back, he could still make the majors and be effective. Eovaldi still throws 100 after 2 surgeries, though they weren't back-to-back. Well - we're just going to have to agree to disagree again. When you say you don't understand that the Sox thought he was a "2" -- well he was a "2" in 2017. It's all good though we're on opposite sides. At 27 a pitcher is young. You act liek it's old. Per the link below - Banister said he added a 3rd pitch and it's made a huge difference. He had a 3rd pitch, is young at 27, and pitched like 2 in 2017 and I gave you link of odds low level minor leaguers make it to prosper and you are still "fighting it." Well as I said we're on extreme opposite sides yet again. Also other that the WEEI Link, from Fangraphs there are several articles describing how he changed which is why I disagree with you and the many, many that had "huge" problems with the trade. I never had a problem fo anyone not liking it a little-- but there were many and you seem like one of them that were angry or 100% disagree with it - which i find very wrong. Even the lats link Fangraphs felt move was about equal. weei.radio.com/articles/column/concerned-about-drew-pomeranzs-red-flags-brian-bannister-has-answersblogs.fangraphs.com/dont-forget-about-drew-pomeranz/blogs.fangraphs.com/drew-pomeranz-now-with-50-more-pitches/blogs.fangraphs.com/its-starting-to-click-for-drew-pomeranz/blogs.fangraphs.com/did-the-red-sox-really-overpay-for-drew-pomeranz/
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