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8/23-8/25 Red Sox @ Padres Series Thread
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 25, 2019 17:50:54 GMT -5
I just enjoyed a beautiful day of music and sun. Can we come back in the top of the 9th ? God....I hope so.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 25, 2019 17:54:56 GMT -5
Manny Machado has played 3 games this year against the Sox and he still finds a way to beat the Sox with one swing in one swing. Ugh, Heck of a talent.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 25, 2019 17:57:00 GMT -5
Except that the Red Sox have taken a patient approach with a lot of marginal starting pitching prospects over the years, and when has it ever worked out for them? It usually just ends with guys getting hurt and falling off before they have a chance to contribute, or they just end up in the bullpen anyway. And specific to Darwinzon, he's got such a strong reliever profile, you'd really be putting the team's needs in front of the player's best developmental path, which isn't likely to benefit anyone. Darwinzon would have to take not one but several steps forward on his command/control, AND develop a third pitch, before you're really talking about him as a significant piece in the rotation. It's not a matter of turning the corner, he has to turn like three or four corners. It's just asking for too many things to go right. That is true. But did they have the electric stuff to miss bats at the ML level. Which has proven he can do, with regularity. I defer to you guys are more adept at determining this stuff, but he is 22 years old and has 2 options left. What is the harm in trying to see if he can figure it out 1 more year.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 25, 2019 17:58:24 GMT -5
I don't know what all the fancy stats say, but the one guy who feels to me like he's been particularly un-clutch all season is JD Martinez.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 25, 2019 18:06:38 GMT -5
Dang. 2 our 3 just wont cut it at this juncture.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Aug 25, 2019 18:12:35 GMT -5
Unusual day.
NL WILDCARD: METS lose Phil lose Mil lose Cubs lose
AL WILDCARD: CLE lose Oak lose TB lose Sox lose
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 25, 2019 18:40:41 GMT -5
bad game
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 25, 2019 20:58:21 GMT -5
I don't know what all the fancy stats say, but the one guy who feels to me like he's been particularly un-clutch all season is JD Martinez. I worried about his career of un-clutchness before we signed him, even knocking a couple of $mil off his value. Those posts may be in the archive.
He came into the game with a worst-in-MLB -3.09 Wins clutch rating at FanGraphs. Incuding tonight, he has 0.37 Win Probability Added.
He and Justin Turner are the only guys below -2.01.
Meanwhile, we managed to hit the daily double (bad hitting and bad luck) for clutch failures with Leverage Index of 2.65+. JDM fanned, and Devers hit the hardest ball of the evening, 110.4, for a GDP.
Since May 1, Devers, JDM, and Benny have now come up 50 times with the tying or go-ahead run on base from 7th onward, and have made 50 outs. 2/48, 2 BB, 4 GDP.
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Post by Addam603 on Aug 25, 2019 21:15:50 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 25, 2019 21:46:44 GMT -5
They can keep sweet Caroline, not borrow it. God, I hate that song.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 25, 2019 21:49:09 GMT -5
I don't know what all the fancy stats say, but the one guy who feels to me like he's been particularly un-clutch all season is JD Martinez. I worried about his career of un-clutchness before we signed him, even knocking a couple of $mil off his value. Those posts may be in the archive.
He came into the game with a worst-in-MLB -3.09 Wins clutch rating at FanGraphs. Incuding tonight, he has 0.37 Win Probability Added.
He and Justin Turner are the only guys below -2.01.
Meanwhile, we managed to hit the daily double (bad hitting and bad luck) for clutch failures with Leverage Index of 2.65+. JDM fanned, and Devers hit the hardest ball of the evening, 110.4, for a GDP.
Since May 1, Devers, JDM, and Benny have now come up 50 times with the tying or go-ahead run on base from 7th onward, and have made 50 outs. 2/48, 2 BB, 4 GDP.
That stat basically summarizes the Sox’s season. They just have NOT performed at all when they most needed to. They’ve been absolutely atrocious, despite still being exceptionally talented. This season reminds me SO much of 2005...
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Post by incandenza on Aug 25, 2019 22:40:11 GMT -5
I don't know what all the fancy stats say, but the one guy who feels to me like he's been particularly un-clutch all season is JD Martinez. I worried about his career of un-clutchness before we signed him, even knocking a couple of $mil off his value. Those posts may be in the archive.
He came into the game with a worst-in-MLB -3.09 Wins clutch rating at FanGraphs. Incuding tonight, he has 0.37 Win Probability Added.
He and Justin Turner are the only guys below -2.01.
Meanwhile, we managed to hit the daily double (bad hitting and bad luck) for clutch failures with Leverage Index of 2.65+. JDM fanned, and Devers hit the hardest ball of the evening, 110.4, for a GDP.
Since May 1, Devers, JDM, and Benny have now come up 50 times with the tying or go-ahead run on base from 7th onward, and have made 50 outs. 2/48, 2 BB, 4 GDP.
Jesus. How is that even possible.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 25, 2019 23:13:15 GMT -5
What a downer of a game, but not surprising, since it is a repeating theme of this season. For such a talented offense to be so often completely shut down by left handed (and even some right handed) pitchers (many of whom are quite pedestrian) will be the other mystifying theme of this season alongside the dismal starting pitching.
What a golden opportunity to pick up important ground absolutely squandered. The 2019 season is littered with games like these, though.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 25, 2019 23:26:44 GMT -5
He can't be a force without a 3rd pitch though, the second time through the order. What's his 3rd pitch and when is he going to master it while relieving? I meant force as a reliever, which we're seeing already. If converted to a starter, he'd be nothing special, #3 on a bad team of #4 on a contender, and hence quite possibly more valuable than he would be in the pen. That's why I added the condition of also having a thin rotation.
BTW, it's a complete myth that you need a third good pitch to be a successful starter. I did that study when they were converting Bard. In fact the number of starters with three plus pitches is small.
If you have two plus pitches, you just need a third that you can show people to keep them honest.
And as you suggest (whether you intended to or not!), if he projected to be of equal value in both roles, you convert him so he can work more on a 3rd pitch, which would then make him a better starter.
Meanwhile, Jorge Soler went deep with a man on and the Indians WP is 15.2% in the top of the 8th. Rays are down to 0.6%.
Yet we traded a prospect with 3 plus pitches for an injured mediocre Drew Pomeranz
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2019 3:27:34 GMT -5
I meant force as a reliever, which we're seeing already. If converted to a starter, he'd be nothing special, #3 on a bad team of #4 on a contender, and hence quite possibly more valuable than he would be in the pen. That's why I added the condition of also having a thin rotation.
BTW, it's a complete myth that you need a third good pitch to be a successful starter. I did that study when they were converting Bard. In fact the number of starters with three plus pitches is small.
If you have two plus pitches, you just need a third that you can show people to keep them honest.
And as you suggest (whether you intended to or not!), if he projected to be of equal value in both roles, you convert him so he can work more on a 3rd pitch, which would then make him a better starter.
Meanwhile, Jorge Soler went deep with a man on and the Indians WP is 15.2% in the top of the 8th. Rays are down to 0.6%.
Yet we traded a prospect with 3 plus pitches for an injured mediocre Drew Pomeranz Saturday will be the 3rd anniversary of the last pitch he threw in a professional game.
I was Neo's #1 fan and I had no problem with the trade. And the next year Pomeranz had 3.9 WAR (10th in the league) and they won the division by 2 games. Not exactly mediocre.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2019 4:11:46 GMT -5
I worried about his career of un-clutchness before we signed him, even knocking a couple of $mil off his value. Those posts may be in the archive.
He came into the game with a worst-in-MLB -3.09 Wins clutch rating at FanGraphs. Incuding tonight, he has 0.37 Win Probability Added. He and Justin Turner are the only guys below -2.01. Meanwhile, we managed to hit the daily double (bad hitting and bad luck) for clutch failures with Leverage Index of 2.65+. JDM fanned, and Devers hit the hardest ball of the evening, 110.4, for a GDP.
Since May 1, Devers, JDM, and Benny have now come up 50 times with the tying or go-ahead run on base from 7th onward, and have made 50 outs. 2/48, 2 BB, 4 GDP.
Jesus. How is that even possible. Some bad luck to make it that extreme. Statcast say they should be 8 or 9/48. And it may be worse than that. The league has hit .250 in these situations, with an xBA of .232. Our xBA is .180. They probably should have had 9 or 10 hits.
These guys, on average, are outhitting the league by .054. But they're .052 below league average in xBA in these 50 PA.
Oh, it's actually 3 GDP and 1 LDP (Benny's). So it would look like just 49 outs in the box scores.
Date Opp Sox Opp Inn Out 1st 2nd 3rd EV xBA xwOBA What 5/2/2019 @CWS 3 3 7 0 Y Y 68.5 .190 .163 J.D. Martinez grounds into a force out. Andrew Benintendi scores. 5/5/2019 @CWS 2 2 7 1 Y Andrew Benintendi walks 5/8/2019 @BAL 1 1 7 2 Y 74.1 .221 .198 Andrew Benintendi grounds into a force out. 5/8/2019 @BAL 1 1 8 0 Y 86.5 .003 .006 J.D. Martinez flies out to right fielder Joey Rickard. 5/8/2019 @BAL 1 1 11 1 Y 106.8 .784 1.601 Rafael Devers flies out to right fielder Joey Rickard. 5/14/2019 COL 3 4 8 0 Y 82.9 .066 .060 Rafael Devers grounds into a force out. 5/14/2019 COL 4 4 9 0 Y Andrew Benintendi strikes out swinging. 5/14/2019 COL 4 4 9 2 Y 92.8 .008 .008 J.D. Martinez pops out to second baseman Ryan McMahon. 5/14/2019 COL 4 4 10 0 Y Rafael Devers strikes out swinging. 5/14/2019 COL 4 5 11 2 Y 82.8 .018 .012 Andrew Benintendi flies out to left fielder Raimel Tapia. 5/15/2019 COL 5 5 7 1 Y Y Andrew Benintendi strikes out swinging. 5/15/2019 COL 5 5 8 1 Y Y 101.7 .666 1.318 Rafael Devers flies out sharply to right fielder Charlie Blackmon. 5/22/2019 @TOR 4 4 10 1 Y Rafael Devers strikes out swinging. 5/25/2019 @HOU 0 2 7 2 Y Y 98.7 .908 .884 Andrew Benintendi singles on a line drive to right fielder Josh Reddick. 5/25/2019 @HOU 3 3 9 1 Y Y 80.0 .000 .000 Andrew Benintendi pops out to third baseman Alex Bregman in foul territory. 5/28/2019 CLE 5 7 9 2 Y Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging. 6/1/2019 @NYY 3 5 9 0 Y Y 70.2 .387 .354 J.D. Martinez grounds into a double play. 6/10/2019 TEX 2 3 9 0 Y Y 82.9 .066 .060 Rafael Devers grounds into a double play. 6/10/2019 TEX 3 3 10 1 Y Y Andrew Benintendi called out on strikes. 6/16/2019 @BAL 3 3 9 2 Y J.D. Martinez strikes out on a foul tip. 6/18/2019 @MIN 3 3 14 2 Y Y Y 81.2 .047 .039 Andrew Benintendi grounds out, second baseman Jonathan Schoop to first baseman C. J. Cron. 6/18/2019 @MIN 3 3 17 0 Y J.D. Martinez called out on strikes. 6/18/2019 @MIN 3 3 17 1 Y 82.9 .066 .060 Rafael Devers grounds out, first baseman C. J. Cron to second baseman Jonathan Schoop. 6/21/2019 TOR 4 5 8 1 Y 99.4 .237 .230 Rafael Devers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Randal Grichuk. Jackie Bradley Jr. scores. 6/21/2019 TOR 5 5 9 1 Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging. 6/22/2019 TOR 7 8 9 2 Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging. 6/24/2019 CWS 5 5 9 0 Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging. 6/24/2019 CWS 5 5 9 1 Y 82.9 .066 .060 Rafael Devers grounds out to first baseman Jose Abreu. 6/26/2019 CWS 5 6 8 1 Y Y 76.8 .195 .187 Rafael Devers grounds out softly, pitcher Alex Colome to first baseman Jose Abreu. 7/14/2019 LAD 4 4 9 1 Y Y 87.0 .590 .540 Rafael Devers lines out to left fielder Alex Verdugo. 7/14/2019 LAD 4 4 10 1 Y 70.8 .795 .736 Andrew Benintendi lines out to left fielder Joc Pederson. 7/14/2019 LAD 4 4 11 2 Y Y Y 100.7 .200 .185 J.D. Martinez grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Corey Seager. 7/16/2019 TOR 4 6 7 1 Y Y 101.5 .600 .814 J.D. Martinez lines out sharply to center fielder Teoscar Hernandez. 7/16/2019 TOR 4 6 7 2 Y Y 87.6 .010 .012 Andrew Benintendi pops out to shortstop Freddy Galvis. 7/30/2019 TB 5 6 7 2 Y J.D. Martinez walks. 7/30/2019 TB 5 6 7 2 Y Y Andrew Benintendi strikes out swinging. 7/30/2019 TB 5 6 8 2 Y Y Y 79.5 .245 .242 Rafael Devers lines out to left fielder Austin Meadows. 8/3/2019 @NYY 4 4 7 2 Y Andrew Benintendi strikes out swinging. 8/3/2019 @NYY 4 6 8 2 Y Y Y Rafael Devers strikes out swinging, catcher Austin Romine to first baseman DJ LeMahieu. 8/7/2019 KC 4 4 7 1 Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging. 8/7/2019 KC 4 4 7 2 Y Andrew Benintendi strikes out swinging. 8/7/2019 KC 4 4 9 0 Y Rafael Devers strikes out swinging. 8/7/2019 KC 4 4 9 2 Y 99.0 .358 .342 J.D. Martinez grounds into a force out, second baseman Nicky Lopez to shortstop Humberto Arteaga. 8/12/2019 @CLE 4 5 9 1 Y Rafael Devers strikes out on a foul tip. 8/12/2019 @CLE 5 5 9 2 Y Y 91.3 .090 .137 Andrew Benintendi flies out to right fielder Tyler Naquin. 8/20/2019 PHI 2 3 8 2 Y 95.5 .403 .468 Rafael Devers lines out to center fielder Adam Haseley. 8/20/2019 PHI 2 3 9 0 Y 85.6 .118 .104 J.D. Martinez reaches on a fielder's choice out. 8/20/2019 PHI 2 3 9 1 Y 99.5 .816 .785 Andrew Benintendi lines into a double play, shortstop Jean Segura to first baseman J. T. Realmuto. 8/25/2019 @SDP 1 3 8 0 Y Y 110.4 .450 tbd Rafael Devers grounds into a double play. 8/25/2019 @SDP 1 3 8 2 Y Y J.D. Martinez strikes out swinging.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,078
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Post by cdj on Aug 26, 2019 5:44:59 GMT -5
Yet we traded a prospect with 3 plus pitches for an injured mediocre Drew Pomeranz Saturday will be the 3rd anniversary of the last pitch he threw in a professional game.
I was Neo's #1 fan and I had no problem with the trade. And the next year Pomeranz had 3.9 WAR (10th in the league) and they won the division by 2 games. Not exactly mediocre.
Precisely They got a really good season out of a starting pitcher for a kid who basically doesn’t exist anymore. Not much to complain about there imo
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 26, 2019 7:56:19 GMT -5
Saturday will be the 3rd anniversary of the last pitch he threw in a professional game. I was Neo's #1 fan and I had no problem with the trade. And the next year Pomeranz had 3.9 WAR (10th in the league) and they won the division by 2 games. Not exactly mediocre.
Precisely They got a really good season out of a starting pitcher for a kid who basically doesn’t exist anymore. Not much to complain about there imo Despite the, "win" I still think they didn't capitalize on his value. I think they could have gotten more for him.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 26, 2019 8:02:22 GMT -5
Yet we traded a prospect with 3 plus pitches for an injured mediocre Drew Pomeranz This is like complaining today that you got QBert instead of E.T. for the Atari 2600 for Christmas in 1982. Maybe you thought you wanted E.T. in 1982; maybe that Christmas-morning disappointment left you with psychological scars that you're better off discussing with a therapist than with the lovely-but-clinically-untrained SoxProspects.com forum community; but it wouldn't have worked out and you really need to detach from that dream.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 26, 2019 9:40:14 GMT -5
I meant force as a reliever, which we're seeing already. If converted to a starter, he'd be nothing special, #3 on a bad team of #4 on a contender, and hence quite possibly more valuable than he would be in the pen. That's why I added the condition of also having a thin rotation.
BTW, it's a complete myth that you need a third good pitch to be a successful starter. I did that study when they were converting Bard. In fact the number of starters with three plus pitches is small.
If you have two plus pitches, you just need a third that you can show people to keep them honest.
And as you suggest (whether you intended to or not!), if he projected to be of equal value in both roles, you convert him so he can work more on a 3rd pitch, which would then make him a better starter.
Meanwhile, Jorge Soler went deep with a man on and the Indians WP is 15.2% in the top of the 8th. Rays are down to 0.6%.
Yet we traded a prospect with 3 plus pitches for an injured mediocre Drew Pomeranz Anderson Espinoza, when TJS doesn't work... For those wishing for every pitcher to rush and get that major surgery every time a pitcher feels a little twinge of discomfort.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 26, 2019 9:42:08 GMT -5
Yet we traded a prospect with 3 plus pitches for an injured mediocre Drew Pomeranz This is like complaining today that you got QBert instead of E.T. for the Atari 2600 for Christmas in 1982. Maybe you thought you wanted E.T. in 1982; maybe that Christmas-morning disappointment left you with psychological scars that you're better off discussing with a therapist than with the lovely-but-clinically-untrained SoxProspects.com forum community; but it wouldn't have worked out and you really need to detach from that dream. QBert was clearly the better game, so the analogy works even better.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 26, 2019 9:44:11 GMT -5
Yet we traded a prospect with 3 plus pitches for an injured mediocre Drew Pomeranz Anderson Espinoza, when TJS doesn't work... For those wishing for every pitcher to rush and get that major surgery every time a pitcher feels a little twinge of discomfort. TJS is a more successful surgery nowadays. TOS on the other hand...
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 26, 2019 9:45:30 GMT -5
Anderson Espinoza, when TJS doesn't work... For those wishing for every pitcher to rush and get that major surgery every time a pitcher feels a little twinge of discomfort. TJS is a more successful surgery nowadays. TOS on the other hand... Espinoza had TJS twice already.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 26, 2019 9:50:25 GMT -5
This is like complaining today that you got QBert instead of E.T. for the Atari 2600 for Christmas in 1982. Maybe you thought you wanted E.T. in 1982; maybe that Christmas-morning disappointment left you with psychological scars that you're better off discussing with a therapist than with the lovely-but-clinically-untrained SoxProspects.com forum community; but it wouldn't have worked out and you really need to detach from that dream. QBert was clearly the better game, so the analogy works even better. Yes that was what I was going for with the analogy. E.T. was an extremely highly anticipated --but sadly broken--game.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 26, 2019 9:52:54 GMT -5
TJS is a more successful surgery nowadays. TOS on the other hand... Espinoza had TJS twice already. Yes and he falls into minority category when it comes to these type of things.
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